Interest on the debt now running at $1.0 Trillion a year and more than our DoD budget.

Annual budget deficit at $1.8 Trillion and about to get way worse with tax cuts and more spending.
CBO has that at $2.9 Trillion by 2034 and that assumes that the 2017 Trump Tax Cuts won't be renewed.
So add some more money to that annual deficit.

S&P and Fitch have already downgraded our debt from AAA to AA+
Moody's is the lone holdout at AAA and that will most likely change this year.

That's one reason why Americans own so many guns.

dimitrig said:

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That's one reason why Americans own so many guns.

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Oh, I get it:

"You can't charge me that much for eggs!!"


It's a great inflation buster, right?!!!

DiabloWags said:

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Interest on the debt now running at $1.0 Trillion a year and more than our DoD budget.

Annual budget deficit at $1.8 Trillion and about to get way worse with tax cuts and more spending.
CBO has that at $2.9 Trillion by 2034 and that assumes that the 2017 Trump Tax Cuts won't be renewed.
So add some more money to that annual deficit.

S&P and Fitch have already downgraded our debt from AAA to AA+
Moody's is the lone holdout at AAA and that will most likely change this year.

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At what level of debt do you fade the USD?
And what do you favor when you do?

He actually said this out LOUD in a recent Time interview:







Trump just soft-launched higher inflation as the new solution for rebalancing the $40 trillion US national debt

That only works if you have a balance budget, not an increasing deficit.

And at any rate, it signals to the world that the US is good with higher inflation. Signal: sell USD.

concordtom said:

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That only works if you have a balance budget, not an increasing deficit.

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You dont need a balanced budget for it to work but you do need some restraint which fiscal conservatives don't have

concordtom said:

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And at any rate, it signals to the world that the US is good with higher inflation. Signal: sell USD.

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The USD has rallied given the rising rate environment.

As long as the market expects the Fed to keep raising rates, the dollar should be able to extend gains.
It's up 3% in September alone.

Economists have been forecasting the demise of the USD for at least a decade.
Most have gotten it wrong over the last 2 years in monthly polls.

Why?

Perhaps economists have underestimated the resilience of the US economy along with the story tied to short-term interest rates. Might have to wait for the signs of a Recession developing before you can short the USD in earnest.

Interesting discussion.

DiabloWags said:

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concordtom said:

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And at any rate, it signals to the world that the US is good with higher inflation. Signal: sell USD.

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The USD has rallied given the rising rate environment.

As long as the market expects the Fed to keep raising rates, the dollar should be able to extend gains.
It's up 3% in September alone.

Economists have been forecasting the demise of the USD for at least a decade.
Most have gotten it wrong over the last 2 years in monthly polls.

Why?

Perhaps economists have underestimated the resilience of the US economy along with the story tied to short-term interest rates. Might have to wait for the signs of a Recession developing before you can short the USD in earnest.

Interesting discussion.

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A strong dollar doesn't necessarily mean the economy is good or bad it just reflects winners and losers. High debt levels means dollar buying to buy the debt. Farmers and manufacturers will be losers from a stronger dollar but they have been voting for this for 50 years so they must not be the smartest folks. Their loss, my gain.

True.

I was simply replying to Tom's ongoing narrative about a weaker dollar.
I think that the demise of the USD has been terribly overstated.

Trump's plan all along has been to weaken the USD in order to stimulate Manufacturing.

LudwigsFountain said:

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DiabloWags said:

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True.

I was simply replying to Tom's ongoing narrative about a weaker dollar.
I think that the demise of the USD has been terribly overstated.

Trump's plan all along has been to weaken the USD in order to stimulate Manufacturing.

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I'm not sure I'd use 'Trump' and 'plan' in the same sentence

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My apologies.

The "plan" was actually called the Mar a Lago Accord.
Modeled after the 1985 Plaza Accord.

https://www.cfr.org/articles/the-mar-a-lago-accords-economic-ripple-effect-widens

dajo9 said:

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LudwigsFountain said:

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DiabloWags said:

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True.

I was simply replying to Tom's ongoing narrative about a weaker dollar.
I think that the demise of the USD has been terribly overstated.

Trump's plan all along has been to weaken the USD in order to stimulate Manufacturing.

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I'm not sure I'd use 'Trump' and 'plan' in the same sentence

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Trump had a plan to lie his way into the White House and make billions and a lot of people fell for it.

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and he's pretty much scored the billions (stolen loot)

dajo9 said:

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LudwigsFountain said:

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DiabloWags said:

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True.

I was simply replying to Tom's ongoing narrative about a weaker dollar.
I think that the demise of the USD has been terribly overstated.

Trump's plan all along has been to weaken the USD in order to stimulate Manufacturing.

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I'm not sure I'd use 'Trump' and 'plan' in the same sentence

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Trump had a plan to lie his way into the White House and make billions and a lot of people fell for it

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The American Farner fell for it not once.
But twice.

And now they're wondering why Trump took away their biggest Market in China and diesel prices are at all time highs screwing them over.

They aren't the sharpest tools in the shed

dajo9 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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dajo9 said:

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LudwigsFountain said:

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DiabloWags said:

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True.

I was simply replying to Tom's ongoing narrative about a weaker dollar.
I think that the demise of the USD has been terribly overstated.

Trump's plan all along has been to weaken the USD in order to stimulate Manufacturing.

---

I'm not sure I'd use 'Trump' and 'plan' in the same sentence

---

Trump had a plan to lie his way into the White House and make billions and a lot of people fell for it

---

The American Farner fell for it not once.
But twice.

And now they're wondering why Trump took away their biggest Market in China and diesel prices are at all time highs screwing them over.

They aren't the sharpest tools in the shed

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They fell for the New York City conman three times

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And now they're falling into Bankruptcy.

THANK YOU DONALD TRUMP!

https://www.farmaid.org/issues/challenges-family-farmers-face/tracking-the-farm-economy-in-crisis/

DiabloWags said:

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concordtom said:

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And at any rate, it signals to the world that the US is good with higher inflation. Signal: sell USD.

---

The USD has rallied given the rising rate environment.

As long as the market expects the Fed to keep raising rates, the dollar should be able to extend gains.
It's up 3% in September alone.

Economists have been forecasting the demise of the USD for at least a decade.
Most have gotten it wrong over the last 2 years in monthly polls.

Why?

Perhaps economists have underestimated the resilience of the US economy along with the story tied to short-term interest rates. Might have to wait for the signs of a Recession developing before you can short the USD in earnest.

Interesting discussion.

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Herd mentality.
When it breaks, it'll crash.

DiabloWags said:

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LudwigsFountain said:

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DiabloWags said:

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True.

I was simply replying to Tom's ongoing narrative about a weaker dollar.
I think that the demise of the USD has been terribly overstated.

Trump's plan all along has been to weaken the USD in order to stimulate Manufacturing.

---

I'm not sure I'd use 'Trump' and 'plan' in the same sentence

---

My apologies.

The "plan" was actually called the Mar a Lago Accord.
Modeled after the 1985 Plaza Accord.

https://www.cfr.org/articles/the-mar-a-lago-accords-economic-ripple-effect-widens

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Teach!

USA is the opposite.