Aka an allegorical 21st century atomic financial instrument to go up against our 19th century protectionist musket and sabers aka tariffs.
This is going to get ugly and ugly quick imho.
We have an artisan personality type (who contrary to popular belief are really just stubborn *******s not great negotiators) who thinks it's a good idea to saber rattle with tariffs vs. the EU who have several upcoming federal elections and snap federal elections (Germany due to failed government this year) at a time when European opinions and voting track records in support of cutting edge protectionist policies like border carbon adjustment mechanisms. The support for such is sky high both among governments and people and on both sides of the aisle in Europe. At a time when the same "you owe what you failed to pay if you had earned here" principles that apply to dual resident income tax are being proposed as an alternative to the traditional free trade model.
He thinks it's a good idea to saber rattle Scheinbaum? Whatever will she do? She must be so scared. I'll tell you what she'll do. She'll start enforcing Mexican income tax rules on H2A workers and she'll further tax remittances as Trump is already threatening to do. The difference is she actually will because she's an actual bulldog not a wannabe bulldog and she knows her country's ag sector will benefit immensely in a scenario where US ag has a farm labor shortage; she has a farm labor surplus; and US rates are high. Ultimately what that will lead to is 3/4 of farm labor disappearing regardless of whether or not they are H2a or the undocumented and Trump deports them (which he doesn't actually want). What he wants is for migrant farm workers to permanently reside here after he closes the border. What he fails to grasp is they don't want to permanently reside here. They want to reside in Mexico and work here meaning given the choice they will go home and earn less and live more comfortably. Not in a 3 bed 2 bath house with 20 other people in order to send remittance back to Oaxaca which will inevitably be taxed on both sides of the border.
And while Trump thinks he's accomplished some genius feat of negotiating and leadership towards the republican goal of lower taxation what he's actually done is at best created a race towards the opposite end of the tax spectrum with a lower gdp, and at worst (the more likely outcome) crashed the US markets exclusive to the rest of the world and driven taxes towards the extreme in all countries but our own.
I really don't think this ends well for us.
My guess is sometime between August and October we see a crash exclusive to the US which will be precipitated first by new BCAs implemented in Germany, the Netherlands and the UK followed shortly thereafter by a massive pullout of foreign (mostly French nationals) of US financial instruments. Then the death blow will come this coming fall when grocery prices skyrocket due to a migrant labor shortage unlike any we've seen since shortly before FDR implemented the bracero program in 1942. Only Trump won't reverse course and implement a bracero program because he's a stubborn ******* who sucks at macroeconomics…he'll just blame democrats instead.
And I know everyone else is dancing around the pot Trump is stirring right now but like everything else he does the ingredients are stinky and everyone's watching him instead of looking inside the pot.
Maybe I'm wrong and I miss out on a rally by converting to stabile value but I doubt it.
**** looks bleak from where I'm sitting.
This is going to get ugly and ugly quick imho.
We have an artisan personality type (who contrary to popular belief are really just stubborn *******s not great negotiators) who thinks it's a good idea to saber rattle with tariffs vs. the EU who have several upcoming federal elections and snap federal elections (Germany due to failed government this year) at a time when European opinions and voting track records in support of cutting edge protectionist policies like border carbon adjustment mechanisms. The support for such is sky high both among governments and people and on both sides of the aisle in Europe. At a time when the same "you owe what you failed to pay if you had earned here" principles that apply to dual resident income tax are being proposed as an alternative to the traditional free trade model.
He thinks it's a good idea to saber rattle Scheinbaum? Whatever will she do? She must be so scared. I'll tell you what she'll do. She'll start enforcing Mexican income tax rules on H2A workers and she'll further tax remittances as Trump is already threatening to do. The difference is she actually will because she's an actual bulldog not a wannabe bulldog and she knows her country's ag sector will benefit immensely in a scenario where US ag has a farm labor shortage; she has a farm labor surplus; and US rates are high. Ultimately what that will lead to is 3/4 of farm labor disappearing regardless of whether or not they are H2a or the undocumented and Trump deports them (which he doesn't actually want). What he wants is for migrant farm workers to permanently reside here after he closes the border. What he fails to grasp is they don't want to permanently reside here. They want to reside in Mexico and work here meaning given the choice they will go home and earn less and live more comfortably. Not in a 3 bed 2 bath house with 20 other people in order to send remittance back to Oaxaca which will inevitably be taxed on both sides of the border.
And while Trump thinks he's accomplished some genius feat of negotiating and leadership towards the republican goal of lower taxation what he's actually done is at best created a race towards the opposite end of the tax spectrum with a lower gdp, and at worst (the more likely outcome) crashed the US markets exclusive to the rest of the world and driven taxes towards the extreme in all countries but our own.
I really don't think this ends well for us.
My guess is sometime between August and October we see a crash exclusive to the US which will be precipitated first by new BCAs implemented in Germany, the Netherlands and the UK followed shortly thereafter by a massive pullout of foreign (mostly French nationals) of US financial instruments. Then the death blow will come this coming fall when grocery prices skyrocket due to a migrant labor shortage unlike any we've seen since shortly before FDR implemented the bracero program in 1942. Only Trump won't reverse course and implement a bracero program because he's a stubborn ******* who sucks at macroeconomics…he'll just blame democrats instead.
And I know everyone else is dancing around the pot Trump is stirring right now but like everything else he does the ingredients are stinky and everyone's watching him instead of looking inside the pot.
Maybe I'm wrong and I miss out on a rally by converting to stabile value but I doubt it.
**** looks bleak from where I'm sitting.