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Is Critical Thinking Dead?

457 Views | 2 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by concordtom
LudwigsFountain
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I ran across an article saying that Berkeley was the worst place in the nation to try buying a house among the roughly 300 cities each study surveyed. I thought sure, things are rough here but worst in the nation? So i spend very little time looking into this and discover that yep, Berkeley's the worst and by a fair margin. Well it turns out the metric was basically average home price divided by average household income. And guess what? The studies were not adjusted to take into account the very large percentage of households comprised by Cal students (and their largely negligible incomes).Think that skewed the results much?

It's nonsense like this that increasingly makes me skeptical of everything I read. I guess our high school social studies teacher had it right when decades ago he said, "Is that true or did you read it in the Chronicle?".
JB was a Chieftain
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For a large population YES
concordtom
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AI answers my question as to which paper or report this is:



Yes. Based on your description, you're very likely referring to the **ConsumerAffairs housing-market study** that ranked **Berkeley as the worst U.S. city for homebuyers**. The study evaluated 272 cities and heavily weighted affordability, using home costs relative to median household income. Berkeley ranked last overall, and a ConsumerAffairs spokesperson specifically noted that a typical three-bedroom home cost about **$1.4 million** while Berkeley's median household income was only a little over **$100,000**, producing an affordability ratio near **14:1**.

As for your criticism: it's a reasonable one.

A city with a large university population can have a somewhat distorted **median household income** because many student households report very low incomes despite living in a high-cost housing market. Berkeley is dominated by the presence of **UC Berkeley**, and student renters comprise a substantial share of households. If those households are included in the income calculation, the denominator in the affordability ratio is pushed downward, making affordability appear worse. That's basic statistical reasoning.

That said, the question is **how much** it changes the result. Even if you excluded students, Berkeley's housing market would still be extraordinarily expensive. The study itself pointed to home prices around $1.4 million. A higher adjusted household income might improve Berkeley's affordability ratio, but it's not obvious it would move Berkeley far up the rankings because Bay Area home prices are objectively among the highest in the country.

So my take is:

- **Yes, student households almost certainly skew the affordability metric downward.**

- **No, that probably doesn't completely reverse the conclusion that Berkeley is one of the toughest places in America to buy a home.**

- The exact impact would depend on whether the study used Census median household income for all households or some adjusted measure excluding student-dominated households.

Interestingly, this is a classic example of how a seemingly straightforward metric like "home price divided by household income" can produce misleading comparisons in college towns. Berkeley, Davis, Ithaca, Ann Arbor, and similar university cities often look poorer on paper than the permanent working population actually is because students count as households but report little income.
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