So what are the chances Fox gets fired? I dont need to hear how screwed up Cal admin is. That has been covered in endless posts.
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Cal Basketball
The Decision to Hire Mark Fox
In the course of fewer than six days, Cal terminated the least successful head coach in its basketball program’s history and hired a coach with more than 250 career wins to replace him.
The obvious initial take when discussing Mark Fox is that he is in every respect an upgrade over his predecessor. An experienced hand who’s well-respected by his peers, Fox will bring a depth of experience and presence that Cal has not had since Mike Montgomery retired in 2012.
That said, it is not a hire that wins the hearts and minds of Cal fans when they first hear the news. His tenure at Georgia may be impressive in some respects. yet it ended after nine years in his being terminated. And while his successes at Georgia were relatively unprecedented for the Bulldog program, in absolute terms he failed to make the school a consistent top-tier SEC power, much less relevant on the national stage.
Juxtapose this with the unsoiled promise of a mid-major coach who has yet to prove himself one way or the other at a Power 6 school. That type of hire brings with it a sense of unlimited upside with the vacuum of those candidates experience creating an almost irrational sense of hope and little consideration of downside. Thus, it is not surprising that upon first take most Cal fans are left mildly disappointed with the appointment of Fox.
The staff here at Bear Insider understands and sympathizes with that sentiment, as it’s not far off our initial reactions. One of the criteria we laid out for the hire was generating excitement and energy around the program and that’s not something that Fox provides simply by signing his name on a contract. As we’ve had the chance to dig deeper and talk to some of the most prominent and well-respected voices in college basketball, we find ourselves reconsidering the gut reaction with an ever-increasing feeling of optimism.
The obvious wins with the hire of Fox are firstly the instant improvement in the leadership from where we were less than a week ago. Secondly, we’ve hired someone with tremendous character and integrity which are essential at Cal and even more so in the current climate in college basketball, where the FBI has uncovered what can best be reflected as the tip of the iceberg when it comes to under the table payments to recruits and their families. Lastly, Fox represents a very high floor. The chances of his not having a measure of success in Berkeley is exceptionally low given his fourteen-year resume as a head man.
Context is important here in two regards. First, the decision to terminate Wyking Jones after only two seasons came with a cost to Cal. Jim Knowlton and Carol Christ have an ambitious vision for Cal athletics including a transformation of the development approach and team to fully unlock the value of Cal’s alumni base as donors. They are less than 12 months into that process with the new Chief of Development, Brian Mann, having only been in Berkeley for less than 6 weeks. The ability to break the bank and reach for the stars in a basketball head coach is clearly an aspiration for the department, but one that will take time and hard work to fully realize. Secondly, Cal has work to do with regard to overall student athletic facilities and specifically a dedicated basketball practice facility to even be on marginally even footing with the rest of the Pac-12. The net is that Cal was not in a position to hire the “perfect” coach. What it could do was make the decision to terminate a struggling head coach after only two seasons (which is exceptionally rare) and clearly upgrade the position.
The alternatives to Cal’s choice of Fox all had their set of risks and warts. Principally among them was betting on a successful low or mid-major coach. A step up in competition, the premium on recruiting (even to the level that Fox achieved) and the data that shows that most of these coaches clearly fail at Power 6 schools were an obvious factor in the choice of Fox. While there were some compelling candidates, especially when filtered through a criterion of selling hope, objectively they represented a far lower floor and more risk. This at a time when Cal is coming off a head coach that represented huge risk given his lack of a resume.
While looking at Fox’s tenure at Georgia, context also plays a role. Georgia has been a deserted wasteland for college basketball for decades. Since 1950, no Georgia head coach who lasted longer than one season posted a winning career record in Athens other than Hugh Durham and Mark Fox. In the five seasons preceding Fox taking over Georgia, the team had won a total of 22 SEC games. Georgia is a program without tradition or any sustained period of success. Against that backdrop, Fox’s record at Georgia may not be viewed as exceptional but certainly is impressive.
Mark Fox’s resume as it relates to scheme, teaching and player development are strong. His teams consistently played top-tier defense, and defense wins in college basketball. He’s a coach with a chip on his shoulder, hungry to wipe the exit at Georgia from his resume. His X’s and O’s and teaching pedigree are endorsed in fulsome fashion with his recent tenure with Team USA and the praise he received from coaching luminaries in today's press release. Bear Insider has had a chance to source further references from a half dozen industry experts and the praise has been universal and unstinting. Folks who know Pac-12 basketball exceptionally well and have no affiliation with Cal or with Coach Fox have been effusive in their praise of Fox and the fit at Cal.
His inability to keep Georgia at the top of the SEC and part of the national discussion can be traced squarely to his inability to recruit enough talent, especially talent that can score. That capped his upside in Athens and will be his biggest challenge in Berkeley, especially after spending the last decade on the East Coast. His choice of former Stanford head coach Trent Johnson as his top assistant is a self-aware action from Fox as Johnson cannot only provide sage advice as a long time head coach but unlike Fox, Johnson's reputation as a recruiter is well established. If Fox can fill in the remaining two assistant positions with at least one strong recruiter with a West Coast network, there’s a real possibility that Cal could hit a home run with their choice of Mark Fox.
The news of Wyking Jones departure and Mark Fox’s hire are not the beginning and end of this story. Expect to hear some very good news with regard to donations and facilities upgrades in the near future. Cal’s basketball brand has been diminished in the past two seasons and needs to be rebuilt. That starts with experienced. competent leadership and continues with substantial donations that benefit not only basketball but the athletic department as a whole.
In short, we are cautiously optimistic.
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