The BearInsider Scout: Cal vs USC

Expectations have been running high for Andy Enfield and the Southern California Trojans men’s hoops program. Enfield signed the seventh-best class in the nation and third-best class in the Pac-12 to complement a crop of seniors. Of the 10 players on USC’s roster that are in the normal rotation, nine are freshmen or seniors. 

While roster balance might be an issue, talent is not. So far blue-chip freshman forward Onyeka Okongwu has lived up to the five-star hype. The 6-9, 245-pound future pro is leading the team in scoring at 16.9 points per game while averaging 62% from the field. He’s also chipping in 8.7 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game.

Okongwu’s fellow five-star counterpart Isaiah Mobley hasn’t had as smooth of a transition to the collegiate level but is still contributing a solid 7.8 points and 6.1 rebounds in about 21 minutes per game. Mobley hasn’t been needed as much as 6-11 senior center Nick Rakocevic has been averaging 11.8 points and 9.0 rebounds per game while shooting 47% from the field.

At guard, senior shooting guard Jonah Matthews has been the biggest three-point threat for the Trojans so far this year. He’s shooting 37% from deep while averaging 12 points per game. Meanwhile, Ethan Anderson, who actually ranked lowest by quite a bit in USC’s six-man freshman class, according to 247 is holding down the point position and averaging 4.9 assists to 2.8 turnovers per game. 

USC (13-3, 2-1, No. 74) is fighting its way onto the NCAA Tourney bubble. The Trojans don’t really have a bad loss besides a 32-point drubbing to Washington before Huskies point guard Quade Green was ruled academically ineligible. Losing at home to Temple is looking worse and worse as the Owls haven’t had a good conference run so far. The Trojans’ neutral court loss to Marquette also isn’t looking as great as the Golden Eagles have also gotten off to a shaky conference start.

Regardless, the Trojans have solid wins against TCU and LSU. With a fairly open Pac-12, USC could still find its way into the top-three or four of Pac-12 standings. At this point, the conference looks like a four-team NCAA Tourney conference so it will need to get around there to like its chances.

When Cal has the Ball

This will be another tough test for the Bears. USC’s defense is not quite to the level of Stanford, but it’s definitely a step up from Wazzu and about the same level as UW. While Cal beat UW, it took 5-of-7 shooting from the field in overtime to reach 61 points. Not surprisingly considering USC’s frontcourt and length, the Trojans are very good at defending two-point shots and blocking shots. Opponents are averaging just 42.7% for two-point shots against the Trojans.

The Bears have found recent success with Matt Bradley and Paris Austin attacking the rim. Grant Anticevich has been solid at hitting some mid-range jumpers. USC hasn’t been great at guarding the perimeter where opponents are averaging 32.7% from three. Maybe Bradley, Anticevich, or Kareem South can find some openings there.

When USC has the Ball

The Trojans aren’t great on offense. In conference-only games, KenPom ranks USC’s adjusted offensive efficiency last. (For reference, Cal is second to last and Washington is third to last.) USC is good at grabbing offensive rebounds and drawing shooting fouls. But the Trojans are pretty bad at free-throw shooting.

This is a scary game for Cal kind of like the UW game as the Bears haven’t done great against skilled frontcourt players this season. While Cal more than held its own against Washington’s Isaiah Stewart, the Trojans have a bit more to throw at opponents in the interior. For one, UW’s tall players like Jaden McDaniels and Hameir Wright are more perimeter-oriented. Okongwu, Rakocevic, and Mobley are all really big dudes. And they’re very skilled. 

However, after a 27-point outburst against Wazzu, Washington held Okongwu to just 10 points on 4-of-13 shooting and UCLA held him to four points on 2-of-3 shooting. There’s some recent game tape on how to slow down the big fella. 

Keys to the Game

Mitigate the frontcourt. Yes, the Bears turned Washington’s Stewart into basically a non-factor. But that was one sample in a season where Cal has struggled against skilled frontcourt players. And that was Washington without Green who was the main generator of offensive flow for the Huskies. USC has three frontcourt players that can go off at pretty much anytime.

More so than offense, USC’s frontcourt has been nearly as good as UW in blocking and altering close-range shots. Even if Cal’s guards are able to make it to the paint, USC has been very solid at not fouling while defending the paint.

Mark Fox rolled through Lars Thiemann, Andre Kelly, and DJ Thorpe to keep a fresh body on Stewart at all times. He might try that again. The problem is he’ll need two at the same time as Okongwu and Rakocevic often share the court at the same time. But in Cal’s normal rotation, it means Anticevich is likely to get Okongwu. Anticevich and Bradley did fine with Washington’s McDaniels on the perimeter, but Okongwu is almost as opposite of a “four” as you can get.

Slow the game. USC plays fast. Cal plays slow. On the season both teams have been rolling about nine players at double-digit minutes. But because of injuries and competition, Cal has dramatically shortened the bench. The Bears should do what they can to slow the game and shorten the number of possessions both teams have. It doesn’t want to get in a running match with the Trojans.

Continue to get point guard support. Not to put this all on Paris Austin, but his ability to show up — especially with a lack of production from Kareem South — the past two games has made the difference for Cal. Yes, Bradley banked home the shot with seconds to play against UW. But without Austin’s offensive rebound that led directly to a South three and then two field goals following that, Cal isn’t in the game for Bradley’s shot to matter. Austin either directly or in-directly scored Cal’s first seven points of overtime in the win against Washington. They need that Austin to continue to show up.

Production from South or Anticevich. Both please?! Like previously said, this isn’t all about Austin. In addition to Bradley doing Bradley things, Cal is at its best when one or two other players make significant contributions. So far in Pac-12 play that’s come from Anticevich. But for a lot of the season, it’s also come from South. While the potential matchup of Anticevich and Okongwu could potentially be disastrous for Cal on defense, it could also be solid on offense. Admittedly, I haven’t watched much USC so I’m not sure how Okongwu is on closeouts or perimeter defense, but Anticevich could find some openings from behind the arc.

KenPom says … 72-62, USC (84% win chance)

The one thing that could work in Cal’s favor is this is a potential trap game for USC as they are starting a key stretch after Thursday. On Saturday, Stanford takes its visit to the Galen Center and then USC takes its second Pacific Northwest trip of the season, this time to Oregon.