Cal head coach Mark Fox said after Thursday’s 76-62 upset win over Colorado that previous games don’t impact future games. But it’s hard not to hope Cal’s start-to-finish domination over the No. 21 Buffaloes will carry over some swagger for the Bears as they host Utah in the season finale at Haas Pavilion.
To be sure, the Bears could use some extra confidence as it faces a team that dismantled them earlier this month. When Utah (15-13, 6-10) and Cal (12-16, 6-9) met in Salt Lake City on February 8, it was one of the Bears’ worst offensive performances of the year as the Utes stifled Cal en route to a 60-45 win. The 45 point total tied Cal’s second-lowest scoring game of the season (the lowest being the 40 points it put up at UCLA).
But this game is obviously being played in Berkeley, where Cal is a totally different team than it is outside of Haas Pavilion. Since the teams last met, Cal has gone 2-3 with losses to Arizona, Arizona State, and Washington and wins over Washington State and Colorado. Utah has gone 1-4 with losses to Oregon State, Oregon, UCLA, and Stanford. The Utes’ lone win was a 14-point drubbing of USC in Salt Lake.
With Cal sitting half a game ahead of Utah in the conference standings, the outcome of this game will have an impact on conference tournament seeding. Let’s take a look at how the teams matchup.
When Cal has the Ball
| Stat |
Cal |
Utah |
| Adj. Eff. |
100.4 (196) |
99.1 (122) |
| Avg. Poss. Length |
19.3 (332) |
17.2 (120) |
| Eff. FG% |
47.2% (279) |
50.2% (215) |
| TO% |
19.4% (216) |
18.1% (224) |
| Off. Reb. % |
24.8% (282) |
26.8% (125) |
| FTA/FGA |
35.5 (99) |
21.9 (7) |
| 3P% |
34.6% (100) |
35.8% (298) |
| 2P% |
45.3% (325) |
48.2% (131) |
| FT% |
72.6% (114) |
72.6% (267) |
| Block% |
9.5% (249) |
7.6% (236) |
| Steal% |
7.3% (24) |
8.2% (238) |
| Non-Stl TO% |
12.1% (329) |
10.0% (172) |
It’s a little bamboozling that Cal only put up 45 points and shot so poorly against the Utes. Yes, Cal has had trouble scoring on the road. But Utah’s defense is just slightly above average and is one of the worst in the conference. For Pac-12 games only, Utah is averaging a defensive efficiency rate of 105.5, which ranks 11th. Only Oregon State has a worse conference-only defensive efficiency rate. On the other hand, Cal’s conference-only offensive efficiency rate of 91.2 is last in the conference. At times this season, Cal’s offense has made bad defensive teams look good.
The one thing Utah does really well on defense is not sending teams to the free-throw line. The Utes are giving up a FTA/FGA rate of just 21.9, which is seventh in the country.
When Utah has the Ball
| Stat |
Utah |
Cal |
| Adj. Eff. |
104.8 (120) |
99.5 (126) |
| Avg. Poss. Length |
18.2 (261) |
17.6 (195) |
| Eff. FG% |
51.01% (103) |
49.2% (158) |
| TO% |
19.7% (236) |
17.6% (256) |
| Off. Reb. % |
28.6% (156) |
26.8% (124) |
| FTA/FGA |
36.5 (78) |
37.1 (276) |
| 3P% |
32.7% (196) |
34.9% (261) |
| 2P% |
52.4% (59) |
47.3% (95) |
| FT% |
72.9% (103) |
73.5% (309) |
| Block% |
11.2% (329) |
6.7% (281) |
| Steal% |
9.7% (254) |
6.0% (350) |
| Non-Stl TO% |
10.0% (199) |
11.6% (36) |
Similar to its defense, Utah’s offense is slightly above average compared to the 350 other D1 hoops teams. The Utes shoot it fairly well from inside the three-point arc at 52.4%, which ranks 59th in the country. At 36.5, Utah has a decent FTA to FGA rate. But the Utes turn it over fairly often, aren’t great shooting it from three and have high block and steal rates.
Keys to the Game
Contain Timmy Allen. The sophomore wing pretty much won the game for the Utes the first time the teams met. Not only did he lead all scorers with 21 points, but he got Matt Bradley in foul trouble. Allen leads Utah in scoring (17.4 points per game) and rebounding (7.2 per game). But, again, perhaps more importantly, Allen ranks 31st in the nation in fouls drawn per 40 minutes at 6.4. Bradley has been prone to foul at times and one way to keep Utah in this game is with Bradley on the bench in foul trouble. We’ll see if Fox changes up the lineup to put someone like Kuany Kuany on Allen or switches to a zone or just puts his trust in Bradley’s ability to get stops without fouling. This is a moment where the Juhwan Harris-Dyson hole is felt.
Three-point shots. Cal put the game away early against Colorado with three-point shooting. Utah isn’t great at guarding the three-point line. If Cal can get Bradley, Kareem South, or Grant Anticevich going, this game could have a similar feel of the game at Wazzu or at home against Colorado where the Bears get up big early.
Free-throws. On the season, Utah has got 20.9% of its points from the free-throw line while its opponents have averaged just 13.7% of their points from the free-throw line. Meaning, Utah is benefiting a lot more from the charity stripe. That didn’t happen in the first meeting between the teams, but it’s another way in which Utah could keep this game close.
Turnovers. Cal committed 17 of them against Utah in Salt Lake City. Utah committed just nine. Being careless with the ball is just another way the Bears could keep Utah in this game.
KenPom says … 65-64, Cal win chance 52%
This feels like a game in which Cal should build an early lead and coast. Prove me right and send the seniors out on a good note, fellas.
