Story Poster
Photo by Pac-12.com
Cal Football

Analyzing the All Pac 12 Football Team

December 13, 2017
6,405

It's quite an honor to be chosen to be on the All Pac 12 football team.   The quality of depth and talent in this conference is remarkable and the choices made by the head coaches of the twelve programs are difficult.

Let's start with a simple question.  How does the # of players a team gets chosen reflect on their success in terms of wins and losses?

Here's the breakdown of players chosen in the first and second team against the total Pac 12 wins the team had in 2017:

Note:  This is not a statisically significant analysis in that we're only looking at 2017

School # of 1st/2nd Team Players # of wins
Washington 12 7
USC 11 8
Stanford 7 7
Washington State 5 6
Oregon 5 4
Utah 5 3
UCLA 4 4
Arizona State 3 6
Colorado 1 2
Arizona 0 5
California 0 2
Oregon State 0 0

So the correlation isn't exact given the Arizona schools results but the clear top three teams in the conference were indeed the same ones best represented with 1st and 2nd team selections

Look at total players honored to perhaps get a better sense of depth of talent:

School Total Honorees Wins
USC 21 8
Washington 16 7
Stanford 15 7
Arizona State 13 6
Oregon 10 4
Washington State 9 6
UCLA 9 4
Utah 9 3
Arizona 6 5
Colorado 5 2
California 4 2
Oregon State 2 0

Viewed this way, the rankings become a far tighter fit to the wins and losses in conference.  So at least as 2017 reflects, it's a good thing to have more all conference performers if you want to win.  How do you get them?

First let's look at experience and how it aligns to 1st and 2nd team selections (not including specialists)

Years of Experience # of Selections
5th Year 3
4th Year 17
3rd Year 19
2nd Year 7
1st Year 0

The clear takeaway here is that experience matters quite a bit.  True frosh are rarely difference makers and it's your upper classmen that make your team a winner.

Of Cal's starters who played enough to merit consideration, how did their years of experience compare?

Years of Experience # of Players
5th year 5
4th year 7
3rd year 8
2nd year 8
1st year 1

Cal's youth worked against it in placing players on the AP12 team though with 80%+ of its key contributors returning next year, the prospect to have more AP12 players in 2018 is bright

How did the selections foot with recruiting rankings?  Let's look at the 1st and 2nd team position players and find out how they were viewed coming out of HS.

Rankings # of AP12 1st/2nd team % of team % of HS recruits
5 Star 2 4% 1%
4 Star 15 33% 10%
3 Star 27 59% 61%
2 Star and below 2 4% 28%
       

Stars matter!   You've got a better chance of being an All Pac 12 player if you were a 4 or 5 star.    The limited data set of 2017 suggests its 4 stars you want and 2 stars are risky.   


 

Tags: Football
Discussion from...

Analyzing the All Pac 12 Football Team

6,249 Views | 4 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by joe amos yaks
calumnus
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Correlation does not prove causation. Your assumption is that All-Pac 12 = best players and best players then produce wins. It may also be true that players on winning teams are better known and rated higher (as are players that are seniors/been in the league longer). Was Matt Leinert really better than Aaron Rodgers or was Matt Leinert the QB on the undefeated national champion team playing in L. A.?
BearGreg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
Football is a team game. A QB will produce better if surrounded by a superior OL and skill talent. The AP12 team reflects both the better players and players from the better team. Though as ASU showed, it can be more than the latter than the former and UW more the former than the latter.

Bear19
How long do you want to ignore this user?
It would be interesting to see how many of the All Pac-12 players have had careers (three or more seasons, more than one or two cups of coffee) in the NFL vs. those Pac-12 players who were not listed on All Pac-12 teams.
joe amos yaks
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Stars or delayed in transit.

So are you saying the ASu, uA and Cal overachieved,
while uW, $uSC, uO, uU, Cu and WSu underacheved?
The Farm and Ucla performed as expected, while
the rest of the PAC . . . OSu . . . did not show?

Is it the stars or is it the desert climate?
Refresh
Page 1 of 1
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.