It hasn’t gone as scripted. Mark Madsen’s first season at Cal brought tremendous energy and enthusiasm to Berkeley and his dynamic transfer portal recruiting revamped the roster.
The team is undeniably talented, with an offense that’s not only fun to watch, it’s a clear strength. Cal plays an NBA-style offense, with the dribble hand off a foundation that creates tons of three-point looks, a steady diet of post offense, and the ability to isolate players who can create their own shot.
Yet, this has not translated into wins. The primary culprit has been injuries which have shortened the bench and left the team unbalanced. Keonte Kennedy misses the first seven games, and then Devon Askew goes down and misses seven games. ND Okafor gets hurt, missing almost all of the last three games and is out for at least another four weeks. Versatile veteran Jalen Celestine has missed five games as well.
The result has been a short bench and save for a decisive win vs Santa Clara, Cal has failed to play at full-throttle intensity for 40 minutes. Despite solid offensive play, turnovers have been a huge problem with Cal not taking care of the ball, particularly with PG Devin Askew sitting on the bench.
Yet, the primary culprit has been the team's defense. It was truly terrible in early losses vs overmatched opponents UOP and Montana State and barely sufficient in wins vs. St. Thomas and Cal State Bakersfield. It appeared the Bears found something defensively in San Juan Capistrano, losing three heartbreakers to UTEP, Tulane, and San Diego State.
They held UTEP to 34% from the field and bottled up Tulane for a half (36%) before running out of gas vs. the Green Wave. They were unable to stay consistent on defense vs. the Aztecs, a trait that’s held in an overtime road loss to Butler and a win vs. UC San Diego where Cal allowed the Toreos to overcome a 26-point deficit.
This is a Bears team that KenPom’s analytics finds to be solid offensively - In the top third nationally in Field Goal Efficiency, a nearly top 50 mark in Offensive Rebounding. Its turnover rate (245th) is the one thing holding Cal back from an even stronger offensive mark, something that will likely improve with the return of Askew and Celestine and the presence of Kennedy on the floor.
Defensively, the KenPom numbers are not at all good. It’s 217th in defensive FG efficiency and a truly awful 322nd in 3-point FG defense. Cal doesn’t force a lot of turnovers and loves to foul, sending opponents to the line way too often (214th nationally).
Personnel-wise, Cal has good defenders. After a slow start, Fardaws Aimiq has been a force in the middle and is playing to the level that saw him twice earn the WAC Defensive Player of the Year. While he’s not a shot-blocking threat, he’s strong and smart and prevents easy post looks while forcing bad shots from anyone driving into the paint.
Jaylon Tyson is strong, quick, and very competitive on defense. Not a shutdown player but a well-above-average on-the-ball defender. Keonte Kennedy is cat-quick, an explosive leaper, and likely the team's best perimeter defender. Jalen Celestine has good length and strength, though he doesn’t look like he’s moving as well laterally as he did before his knee surgery. Devon Askew is very strong and particularly effective in denying pick-and-roll plays the space they need to operate.
Jalen Cone has been a liability and Madsen’s decision to switch off screens has led to teams attacking him with bigger, stronger players. Cone holds up well enough vs. guards to not be a consistent liability but he cannot even slow down longer, bulkier opponents.
The key to the defense is sustained focus and intensity, something that has eluded the Bears as they enter conference play. There’s absolutely the talent for this to be a top half of the Pac-12 defensive squad.
Offensively, there’s plenty of firepower, particularly if Askew can be at 100% and find the rhythm to run the offense. Tyson is lethal with the ball in the half-court as a passer and scorer, Fardaws is hyper-efficient as a post presence and Cone provides the jump-shooting threat needed to create space. Kennedy is a perfect compliment as a slasher.
The Pac-12 is full of talented but imperfect teams. The best of them is tonight's opponent in Arizona. They are a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency team per KenPom. The Wildcats are tremendous on the glass, making offensive rebounds a staple of their offense while rarely giving up anything on the defensive boards. They will take the ball away from you and force tempo, creating easy looks in transition. Arizona is not a great three-point shooting team and can struggle to defend the three at times, both of which are likely crucial elements to a potential Cal upset.
Two keys for tonight: Can Cal avoid fouling and keep Fardaws on the floor? With Okafor out, the Bears are razor-thin inside. Newell is a swing forward who has been anemic on offense and inconsistent defensively, yet he’s critical for the Bears tonight with his rebounding and length. Secondly, the Bears have to sustain their defensive intensity. To do that, Askew, Celestine, and Brown are all going to need to play substantial minutes to rest the starters.
It’ll be a tall task against Arizona but the roster is mostly healthy and the team is not far away from finding its defensive identity, leading to a potentially strong Pac-12 conference season.
