Cal Men's Basketball Preview 2024-25 - FREE

The 2023-24 Bears were both a meaningful step forward for a program that had been mired in its worst six year stretch in its history and simultaneously disappoinitng thanks to its slow start to the season and its ignominious finale vs Stanford in the Pac-12 tournament.

Mark Madsen’s appointment as the Cal Head Coach created a tectonic shift in the trajectory of the program.  Madsen’s energy, his resume as both a professional and college coach, the quality of the staff be brought with him and the instant transformation of the Bears recruiting fortune were all hyperspace level jumps from his predecessor Mark Fox.

Cal landed the #9 ranked transfer portal class in the country within weeks of Madsen’s appointment behind a revitalized donor base supporting the programs NIL efforts.  Despite a 13-19 season, the Bears proved to be competitive in Pac-12 play with big wins vs. UCLA and Oregon.  More importantly, the average attendance at Haas Pavilion more than doubled from the previous season.

The team was built around versatile forward Jaylen Tyson and big man Fardaws Aimaq.   Sharp shooting guard Jalen Cone ran hot and cold and was a difference maker when he was on.  Veteran Jalen Celestine was a crunch time killer and Keonte Kennedy gave Cal a shut down defender.

All five of those players have now moved on with Tyson a first round pick in the NBA and Aimaq, Cone and Kennedy all playing professionally overseas.  Celestine was an unplanned departure when Baylor came calling with an opportunity to play in a Final Four and a compelling NIL offer.

Last years squad struggled to be more than the sum of its parts.  There were issues with the legacy Fox players and the high profile newcomers blending together as a single unit.  Cal lacked a true PG which led to an inconsistent half court offense, the team never found its defensive identity and quality depth was a challenge all season long.

Fast forward six months and Madsen has a nearly completely rebuilt roster with the addition of 11 new scholarship players and 5 new Preferred Walk Ons.  Once again, the Bears made noise in the transfer portal notching the #15 class in the country.   Former 5 star and McD’s AA Andrej Stojakovic is the head liner of a class that also includes former All-WAC 1^st Team PG Jovan Blacksher, All Summit League 1^st Teamer BJ Omot, and Rytis Petratitis, who led Air Force in points, rebounds, steals, blocks and assists in 2023-24.

The group boasts two other former top 50 HS recruits in big men Mady Sissoko and Lee Dort as well as productive B10 forward Joshua Ola-Joseph and mid-major guards DJ Campbell and Christian Tucker.  The Bears also added Freshman Guard Jeremiah WIlkinson, a top 200 recruit from Atlanta, Georgia.

The 2024-25 Preview

Guards:

The addition of a former local prep star to the 2024 recruiting class may turn out to be its most essential. After four years at Grand Canyon University,  Jovan Blacksher has established himself as the Bears lead guard and primary ball handler and facilitator and will be looked to for his leadership on both ends of the floor.   Jovan’s a pass first point guard with a slick handle, an array of dribble drive moves and a smooth outside shot.   He’s slightly built and while he’s quick and fast, he’s not an explosive leaper or a good finisher.

Defensively, he’s got quick hands and is a pest for anyone bringing the ball up against him.  His lack of height and weight will be a defensive liability against bigger, stronger guards.   Blacksher can be a bit passive yet that’s he’s more effective passing first and scoring second.  The challenge is that a lack of finishers and shooters around him may lead him to look to score more than is natural for him where his lack of size and abllity to finish at the rim will be a limitation.

The Bears have three other ball handling options at guard, a luxury relative to where they were a season ago, though only one of those players is a true lead guard.  Christian Tucker boasts the length and strength that Blacksher lacks and he plays with a lot of poise.  However, he’s a middling athlete at best and not a threat from the three point arc, making him best suited to a back up role.

Stojakovic has the highest ceiling of any player on the roster with his plus length, explosive athleticism and the ability to score at all three levels.  Andrej flashed during his Freshman year at Stanford but was more potential than production on the Farm.  It’s not clear that’s materially changed through the Summer.   On the positive side, he’s a good playmaker with plus vision and passing ability and has some nifty dribble drive moves that can free him up for mid range jumpers.

What’s missing is the consistency of his three point shot and the confidence to play as a teams primary scoring option.   To some degree, the Bears upside this year may be driven by Andrej’s desire and belief in himself to be the alpha of the team.   Defensively, he’s a work in progress and continues to refine his technique as an on the ball defender.

Combo guard DJ Campbell exits the offseason as a real upside surprise relative to expectations.  He’s built like a tank and knows how to score both as a spot up shooter and in the mid range with an array of back to basket moves.  He’s more strong than he is athletic and while his handle is solid, he’s more scorer than facilitor.  He’s a dog on defense and knows how to use his body to great effect.  Most importantly, Campbell plays with an edge and competitive fire and isn’t afraid to take and make big shots.

Freshman Wilkinson is another pleasant surprise.  He’s a very good athlete with plus speed and explosive leaping ability.  He’s also got a silky smooth lefty jump shooter and his HS resume shows he can and will fill it up when given the chance.  While his size says point guard, he’s clearly more comfortable as a scorer, albeit one with the ball in his hand.   HIs playing time will in part likely be determined by his ability to move without the ball and show that he can score coming off screens.

He’s a player that may well be at his best when the lights shine the brightest.  He doesn’t lack for confidence and plays with a swagger.  He’s a true freshmand and thus is still learning what it is to play in an NBA style offensive system and to play team defense as is required at this level.

Pavlovic remains injured and likely will sit this season out.  

Forwards:

Petratitis was the big get here in the portal as he turned down an aggressive pitch from Texas among other big time programs.   Early in camp, he was the teams best overall player, dominating the glass, creating shots off the bounce and making passes like a poor man’s Larry Bird.   He was a solid 34% from three the past year with Air Force and while he’s not a big deep threat, he shoots it well enough to keep defenses honest.

Rytis at his best is a swiss army knife, highly versatile and capable of making all the small plays that lead to a win.  yet, he’s not a great athlete nor is he particularly long and he can get frustrated by more athletic, taller defenders.  If he’s not hitting from three, teams may sag off him, negating his nifty ball handling skills.  He’s a better defender than his athleticism might suggest and a plus rebounder.

Omot’s battled injuries on and off since arriving in Berkeley so our observations have been limited.  When he’s been full go, he’s showed off a varied bag of dribble drive moves and a knack for scoring.  He’s a better shooter than his numbers the past few years have showed based on his practice performance though he’s likely more of an occasional spot up deep scorer than a consistent jump shooter.

Omot’s very thin but long and bouncy.  He’s got good body control and agility to go with a plus handle and likely represents Cal’s best pure scoring threat as the season opens.  His health remains an open question as does his ability to defend in the paint.  He’s more comfortable as a perimeter defender utilizing his length and quickness than he is down low where his lack of weight is an impediment.  

Joshua Ola-Joseph has an NBA body and athleticism.   He’s a dynamic run and jump athlete whose at his best slashing to the basket and spotting up from the corner for threes.  He shot 40% from deep at Minnesota last year in limited attempts and while his shot form isn’t ideal, they go down at a decent clip.   

Ola-Joseph seems more comfortable playing as an oversized guard rather than the power forward he appears to be in size and athleticism.  He’s not a low block scoring threat nor is he a work horse on the glass.  He’s at his best in transition and on pick and rolls.  Joseph’s also a defensive presence as a shot blocker and using his size and athleticism on the perimeter.  

The best pure shooter on the team may be former Washington State forward Spencer Mahoney.  Mahoney’s got as pure a release and rotation as you will see and gets his shot off with ease given his length.  He’s well built if not yet as strong as he can be and while he’s a limited athlete, he’s gotten better as camp has gone along to become serviceable as a defender and rebounder.

He’s pretty one dimensional as a scorer with not much of a handle or mid range game but as a stretch four, he may be valuable enough to earn minutes this season.  If teams choose to zone the Bears, Mahoney may  be the best answer Madsen has on a team that is not deep in shooters.

Bigs:

Mady Sissoko is an experienced center who started 59 games at Michigan State and appeared in 124 games for Coach Izzo making him one of if not the most experienced big man in the ACC.  Sissoko is built like an NFL defensive end and is a smart and capable defender.   He’s a good athlete who can block shots, though he’s more of a shot effector than a shot rejector.

He’s a strong positional defender who can switch off and use his foot speed to stay with smaller players and is effective negating pick and rolls.  He’s not the natural rebounder that Cal had with Aimaq last year but he blocks out well and can go up and get the ball.   While his stats at MSU suggest he’ wasn’t an offensive factor, he’s got a decent low block game and jump hook and can hit his free throws (70% last year).  

He lacks the imposing size or skill to be a true low post threat and is more comfortable as a rim runner in pick and rolls.

Lee Dort is similarly built to Sissoko albeit a touch taller and a more dynamic athlete.  He’s a legit shot blocker and a sky walker on pick and roll lobs and in transition.  He represents significant upside on the roster.

Dort’s a very poor shooter, particulalry from outside 6 feet and he will be a liability from the free throw line.  His inexperience, only 18 games in limited minutes at Vanderbilt, is evident in his defense and overall basketball IQ.  His best college basketball is ahead of him, it’s just a matter of how far away that time will be. 

Devin Curtis is noticeably stronger and more comfortable than he was in his true freshman campaign.   He’s also a real threat as a jump shooter out to 22’.   He’s long and bouncy enough to be a legit shot changer in the paint and he moves well on defense.

He’s limited by his lack of weight and his raw back to the basket offensive game.  He’s also got to play with a more consistent effort and intensity level though both were improved as camp went along.

Gus Larsen returns and he will provide an experienced big man off the bench that can use his length and hustle to impact a game.  Similar to Curtis in that he can both hit a face up jumper and lacks a back to the basket game.   

Overall:

This is a deeper, longer and more athletic team than Cal had last year.  It’s also one that lacks a perimeter or low post scorer of the caliber of Tyson and Aimaq.   It’s very difficult to assess the prospects of the squad given the teams complete roster turnover.   The floor feels higher given the depth and athleticism and the implications those provide to the teams defensive potential.   It’s also hard to view the ceiling as being particularly high without the emergence of three legitimate ACC level scoring threats.

There’s reason to believe the team will be well coached and that the offensive and defensive systems will be tailored to the teams strengths.   It will almost certainly take time and perhaps some painful struggles before the team can establish a real identity.  The schedule is favorable with the right balance of cupcakes and challenging yet winnable games against name opponents.  The non conference slate will ideally turn out to be an opportunity for the team to find its chemistry and for a handful of players to rise up to the opportunity to be go to scorers at this level.  Perimeter shooting will be a question mark as will low post scoring.  This team will need to score off forced turnovers in transition and effective mid range shooting and playmaking.   

It should be a fun team to watch, a roster that will have any number of interesting combinations and upside development opportunities.  Since most of the roster has the eligibility to return next year, it can also be a team that lays the foundation for a future NCAA tournament appearance.  Something that’s unlikely to happen this year.