Good write up. Makes em sound good! Hope they are.
Photo by Cal Athletics
Overall:
This is an almost entirely new team with only three key rotation players returning and perhaps only one of them a sure fire starter. The program welcomes nine transfers and two new high school recruits, and loses their dynamic duo from the 2024-25 season Andrej Stojakovic and Jeremiah Wilkinson as they move on to Illinois and Georgia respectively.
So with all the new faces, what is to be expected? The roster building was focused on building better team chemistry, creating a team that was unselfish and shared the ball. Coach Madsen wants a team that can shoot the ball at a high clip from the perimeter and one that is willing to play defense at a consistently high level.
The Roster:
With that criteria in mind, he added a slew of shooters, specifically former Syracuse sharp shooter Chris Bell and Delaware transfer John Camden, both of whom boast great length at 6’8 and smooth strokes. Both players shot well over 40% from three last year and should be the focal point of the offense.
Improving the teams passing and unselfishness led Madsen to add two guards with plus vision and handles in Justin Pippen and Dai Dai Ames. Ames posted solid numbers for Virginia last year and is a crafty, clever penetrator with a solid shot and willingness to pass. Pippen is younger and less proven but has really good length to pair with a good looking jump shot, a high basketball IQ and a smooth handle. He should be the teams best passer and primary point guard.
Those four transfers may well be starters alongside returning big man Lee Dort. Dort has NBA size and athleticism and was among the nation’s leaders in post defense and rebounding according to KenPom’s advanced metrics. Lee struggled to avoid foul trouble and at least last season was not a real threat to score. He’s sculpted his body and should be ready to shoulder a bigger minutes load this season. If he can stay on the floor, at a minimum he’s an elite rebounder (particularly on the offensive glass) and a plus post defender.
Rytis Petraitis returns as the teams swiss army knife and is finally healthy after offseason shoulder surgery. His energy, basketball IQ and versatility as a rebounder and passer is going to ensure he plays a lot of minute even if it’s as the Bears sixth man. DJ Campbell will likely join him off the bench and the fearless “power” guard is another energizer bunny who will need to see his offensive efficiency improve if he wants to earn more playing time.
Milos Ilic brings a very solid resume as a post player from Loyola Maryland and will be the Bears primary back up in the post. He’s a wide body with very good feet and a deft touch. Milos isn’t the longest or most athletic big man so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to playing in the ACC
Nolan Dorsey is a twenty four year old grad transfer who was the Defensive Player of the Year in the Colonial Athletic Association last year as a long and strong wing. The amateur MMA fighter will provide toughness and high energy off the bench for the Bears.
Both Freshman will get a chance to earn a spot in what’s likely to be a big rotation (somewhere in the 9-10 player range). Semetri Carr is an undersized point guard whose built out his body and plays with real presence and poise. He can hit the open three and brings a solid handle to the team. Jovani Ruff was a highly touted recruit and he has what for this team is a premium skill which is the ability to create his own shot. Ruff has broad shoulders and can really rise off the floor to make mid range and fadeaway jumpers with ease. His shot is unorthodox and could be a challenge when he’s shooting beyond the arc. For both of the Freshman, playing smart defense and showing they understand the offense will be critical for them to see the court.
Cal added three other young big men with Sammie Yeanay having the most upside but also an injury issue that likely keeps him out for most of this season. Mantas Kocanas has good length and movement skills but could use some time in the weight room and to mature his overall game. Dhiaukuei Manuel Dut is nearly 7 feet tall and he has a soft touch and can block shots. He’s more slight particularly below the waist and may struggle against stronger post players.
Offense:
Look for this team to change things up from last year and play a style that’s built around Cal’s hoped for improvements in shooting and passing. Given the likely challenges of this years Bear team creating off the bounce, a premium will be placed on freeing up three point shooters, finding points in transition and winning on the glass to get more shot attempts. This team looks built to avoid turnovers and reward cutters with more effective passes.
Defense:
This is the area of the program that needs to take the biggest step forward. The roster is better built in this regard with the three returners boasting some of the team’s best advanced defensive metrics from last season (Particulalry Dort and Petraitis) and Bell, Dorsey, and Pippen bringing reputations as strong defenders to the squad. Madsen has made defense the offseason priority and it’s not hard to imagine a very different approach in how the teams plays along with the team playing with a renewed effort and intensity on this end of the floor.
Areas of Strength:
- Outside Shooting
- Ball Handling
- Improved Chemistry
- Improved Defense
- Depth
Question Marks:
- Shot Creation on Offense?
- Post Depth?
- Sufficient Athleticism for the ACC?
- Will the Defense Improve Enough?
The Schedule:
The non conference slate is set up to give the team confidence and to get some notches in the win column. The Bears are only obvious underdogs against UCLA and Kansas State before they enter ACC play. Conference play will be challenging though Cal does get some of their likely tougher opponents at home (e.g. Louisville, Duke, North Carolina, and Pitt)
Prediction:
There’s little scarier than predicting College Basketball in this day and age given that most teams turn over more than two-thirds of their rosters from the previous season. That said, this is a group that should post a strong non-conference record and with only a modicum of success in the ACC could qualify for some sort of postseason invitation. The ceiling does not appear to be high with this group and it’s hard to imagine more than 15-17 wins. If the injury bug hits (particularly with Dort or Pippen), the above may prove to be optimistic.
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