December 24th at 5pm Pacific in Honolulu, Hawaii
7-5 Hawaii (5-3 in the Mountain West) vs 7-5 California (4-4 in the ACC)
Key Team Stats:
Hawaii -
Offensive YPP - 76th Nationally at 5.6 ypp, 62nd in yards per game at 398
Defensive YPP - 77th at 5.6 ypp against, 52nd at 349 yards per game against
Scoring Offense - 63rd at 28.5 points per game
Scoring Defense - 59th at 23.5 points per game against
Run Offense - 1450 yards and 4.65 ypc (without sacks included) , last in the MWC
Run Defense - 62nd nationally at 4.08 ypc and 43rd in yards per game at 132 ypg
Pass Offense - 64th in passer rating at 136 and 10th in yards per game at 298
Pass Defense - 53rd in passer rating at 128 and 56th in yards per game at 218
California -
Offense - 112th Nationally at 5.1 ypp, 98th in yards per game at 343
Defense - 63rd at 5.3 ypp against, 60th in yards per game against at 359
Scoring Offense - 88th at 24.8 points per game
Scoring Defense - 78th at 26.5 points per game against
Run Offense - 1144 total yards and 3.5 ypc (not counting sacks) - last in the ACC
Run Defense - 112th at 4.6ypc against and 87th at 162 yards per game
Pass Offense - 74th at Passer Rating with 131 and 24th at 271 yards per game
Pass Defense - 32nd with a 119 Passer Rating and 37th at 191 yards per game
The Rainbows:
Were a very good Football team when they played at home and below average outside Hawaii. They went 6-1 at home, beating opponents by an average of 30-15. On the road, Hawaii posted a 2-4 record losing on average 35-26. Their defense in particular fell of a cliff without their home town L&L BBQ
They started the season struggling on Offense but in the back half of the year, they clicked with their passing game and began to put up big numbers. They operate the Run and Shoot with a ton of RPO plays with a big bias towards throwing the ball.
Their best Offensive player was WR Jackson Harris and his not playing in the Bowl game as he readies to enter the portal is a material blow for them. He was a big play waiting to happen and after the Rainbows lulled Defenses closer to the line of scrimmage with a lot of short passing plays, he would
take the top off.
This is not a good run team and they’ve been inconsistent with their pass protection. Those are two reasons why you have to be impressed with their 5’10, left handed QB Micah Alejado. He’s smart, tough and accurate and can use his legs to avoid sacks and get yards on the ground with plus quickness.
Their OL has solid size and primarily uses a zone blocking scheme. Their RBs are decent sized and pretty good players but they don’t get a lot of carries and the holes more often than not haven’t been there.
Much like the Bears, when their OL has struggled, it’s been with their Tackles. The IOL is solid in pass protection and that’s generally where the success on the ground will emanate from.
The Rainbows Defense is not big but they are quick and as a unit are among the nation’s most effective pass rushing groups, particularly on the outside.
They’ll send five rushers quite often as they compensate for a lack of size in the front seven by taking more risks and playing up the field with their Safeties being particularly aggressive.
De’Jon Benton, the DE/DT is a beast of a pass rusher and Edge Jackie Johnson gives them a second very good QB hunter.
Their pass coverage numbers are good but much of that has to do with the effectiveness of their pass rush. That said, CB Elijah Palmer is a potential NFL prospect on the outside and they have good athleticism and speed throughout the Defensive backfield
It’s not a good tackling team though they swarm to the ball well.
Their FG kicker is among the nation’s best (Japanese born Kansei Matsuzawa) and their Punter Billy Gowers is also elite. Their coverage teams are poor.
The Matchups:
When Cal has the ball - It’s strength on weakness as the Rainbows pass rush faces a Bears protection unit that has struggled. Look for Cal to go to more jumbo packages as they did vs SMU both to establish the run and to give JKS more time to throw. The Bears may find success with WR screens as they have a size and strength advantage on the outside.
Hawaii’s Defense runs well which may take away the jet sweeps and the in the flat throws to the slot WRs and RBs. The lack of big play dynamism from the Cal WR corps could be a factor. Hawaii struggled against taller, faster WRs.
Can the Bears keep the pocket clean? Can Cal establish the run? If they can do those two things, expect the Bears Offense to put up 35+ points. If not, it
could be a long day at the Beach.
When Hawaii has the ball - Defensively, without Harris in the Rainbows line up, Cal can likely cheat up and not worry about deep throws. That will allow the Bears to sit in short zones and play seven in the box.
Cal has a recipe to shut down the Rainbows. Ignite the pass rush from the SMU game and force Alejado to beat them from behind the chains or while throwing on the run. The Bears have outstanding cover folks on the outside and can man up while keeping the LBs and Safeties to patrol between the hash marks.
If Alejado gets time and forces Cal to go with six in the box, the Rainbows may be able to get their run game going against a Bears unit that struggles to stop the ground game. Tackling in space is imperative against a Run and Shoot team, and Cal was not a good tackling group in 2025.
The Special Teams advantage is on the side of Hawaii, though this is a game where Cal may be able to exploit Jacob DeJesus in the return game as the Rainbows were dead last in the MWC in opponent punt returns.
Prediction:
This is a closer game than some may expect from a Power 4 team vs a Group of 5 squad. The Rainbows are really good when they play at Home and Cal is now a team where both staff members and players have to be spending some amount of time thinking about their fit and role with the program going forward.
The Bears have the size and talent advantage but it’s not decisive throughout the rosters. Hawaii’s pass rush is the real deal and they will swarm to the ball on outlets and short passes designed to defeat the rush. If Cal can’t get the run game going and/or find big plays down the field, it will be a long day.
In the end, the Rainbows own pass protection issues, Jackson Harris not being with the team and JKS wanting to make a statement in front of friends and family will be the difference.
Cal 31, Hawaii 24
Quote:
Their FG kicker is among the nation's best (Japanese born Kansei Matsuzawa)
