What do you expect UNLV's final regular-season record to be, and why, and what's your score prediction for this game?
I think UNLV finishes 8-4. I still think this is a good football team, but it has already shown a wider week-to-week range than last year's team did. Memphis was winnable, Hawai‘i showed what the run game can do, North Texas exposed how quickly things can unravel and Akron was the first complete offensive afternoon. The back half of the schedule still gives UNLV a chance to stack wins, but there is not much room for another performance like North Texas.
For this game, I have UNLV beating Cal 27-24. I think Cal's defense can make this uncomfortable, especially if UNLV gets pushed into obvious passing downs, but Jai'Den Thomas against a defense allowing 191 rushing yards per game is probably the best matchup UNLV has. If the Rebels can stay ahead of the chains and keep Cal from turning the game into Arnold against that secondary for four quarters, I think they have enough to win it.
If UNLV is to turn things around and play more like last seaaon,what will have to happen? And if the record falls off a couple games or more, what do you think will have gone wrong?
If UNLV is going to produce results closer to last season, the offense has to become something Dan Mullen and Jackson Arnold can trust every week. Mullen spent the bye saying he had to cut plays Arnold was not comfortable running. His point was that it does not matter how much the coaching staff likes a concept if the quarterback does not trust it once the defense changes the picture. Akron was the first game where that process looked like it helped. Thomas ran for 113 yards, Arnold threw for 290 and three touchdowns, the offensive line did not allow a sack and UNLV produced 493 yards. Now they have to show they can do it against a better defense.
The other thing is that the defense cannot keep giving up explosive plays because of missed tackles or bad pursuit. North Texas was the extreme example with 29 missed tackles. Akron was much better, but UNLV still allowed seven explosive plays. If this team ends up closer to six or seven wins than eight or nine, I think we will look back at inconsistent protection, an offense that never completely settles around Arnold and a defense that continues giving away too many yards after the first mistake.
What are some of the areas where the offense has improved over last season if any, what are some of the question marks and who are some of the most impactful players?
I would not say the offense has improved over last season. Last year's offense was more settled, more productive and had a quarterback in Anthony Colandrea who already had a strong command of what Mullen wanted to run. This year's group has shown some progress over the first month, but that is different from saying it is better than what UNLV had a year ago.
Arnold's ball security has probably been the most encouraging part. He has not thrown an interception through four games despite playing behind protection that has broken down badly at times. Thomas has been the most dependable offensive player, going over 100 yards at Hawai‘i and Akron, and Taz Reddicks has become much more important over the last two games with 75 yards at North Texas and 116 at Akron. Getting Kayden McGee back also gives UNLV another receiver who can threaten the defense downfield instead of asking Reddicks to carry all of that work.
The biggest question is still the offensive line. UNLV allowed 11 sacks through the first three games and then none at Akron. Austin Boyd's injury changed the plan at center, and they have had to work through different combinations with Griffin Scroggs, BJ Tolo and Joe Metzger. Akron was the first time the run game, protection and passing game all worked together for an entire afternoon. Cal is a much better test because the Bears have seven sacks, 21 quarterback hurries and six interceptions. If UNLV can protect Arnold and keep Thomas involved against that defense, we will have a much better idea of how much of the Akron improvement was real.
What are some of the ways the defense has improved if any over last year, what are some of the question marks and who are some of the most impactful players?
There are areas where this defense looks encouraging, especially the pressure it has created through four games, but I would not make a broad claim yet that the group is better than last year's defense. UNLV already has 10 sacks, and the pressure has come from several places. Tre Fulton has been productive off the edge, Kal-El Togafau and Elias Rudolph have added pressure, and getting Poe Purcell back should give them another body inside. The secondary has also continued creating takeaways, with four interceptions from four different players.
The concern is what happens when the first defender does not finish the play. North Texas exposed that badly. UNLV missed 29 tackles, and one mistake kept becoming another. Akron was a much better response, with six missed tackles for 40 yards, but the Rebels still gave up seven explosive plays. That is the part I am watching against Cal because Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele can extend plays after the original call breaks down. UNLV cannot get close to him and call it pressure. The edges have to keep him in the pocket, the interior has to take away the space where he can climb and the secondary has to keep covering if the play lasts longer than expected.
Cam Santee has probably been one of the most important players on the defense. He has 27 tackles through four games and just had 10 tackles and his first career interception at Akron. Fulton has been the most productive pass rusher, and Jake Pope has consistently been around the ball. Mumu Bin-Wahad is another important piece because Cal has enough receiving talent to punish mistakes in the secondary.
What are your impressions of Cal in 2026? What are you expecting to see from them after the disappointing losses to UCLA, underwhelming win at Syracuse and rough game vs Clemson?
My impression of Cal is that the defense is much closer to what Tosh Lupoi wants than the offense is. The Bears are 2-2, and the three games against Power Four competition have all exposed something different. UCLA ran for 277 yards and scored 45. Syracuse outgained Cal badly, but Kingston Lopa intercepted three passes and changed the game. Clemson then held the Bears without an offensive touchdown, and Sagapolutele finished with 119 yards and two interceptions.
The defense can absolutely win possessions. Cal has six interceptions, five from Lopa, and opposing quarterbacks have thrown only two touchdowns. The problem is that teams have been able to run the ball. Cal is allowing 191 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry, which is why Thomas is such a big part of this matchup.
Offensively, I think Cal is more dangerous than the Clemson game made it look, but they clearly know something has to change. Lupoi called the production unacceptable. He has become more involved with the offense, talked about elevating responsibilities for Pat McCann, Nick Rolovich and Keith Bhonapha, and would not guarantee that Jordan Somerville's play-calling role will stay exactly the same. Ron Rivera also said Lupoi has been in the offensive meetings and asked the staff to pare things back.
Based on what Lupoi and Rivera have said, I would expect some effort to simplify things for Sagapolutele. That could mean a smaller menu, quicker decisions or more defined reads, but Cal has not announced exactly what will change. I would not say there is definitely a new play caller, because there has been no announcement of one.
UNLV should at least prepare for an offense that has been adjusted from what Clemson saw. We know the personnel. We know Sagapolutele has the arm talent to make difficult throws and the athleticism to extend plays. We just do not know exactly what the offense will look like after a week of changes.
