"The NFL salary cap is expected to decrease after seven consecutive years of $10+ million increases, dropping from $198.2 million to an estimated $180 million due to the pandemic, Jeff writes.
Why it matters: With free agency just two weeks away, we could see the biggest round of cuts in recent memory, as teams work to get under the (still indeterminate) cap.
"Just texted with an NFL head coach about the upcoming cuts and what he expects ... 'It's going to be a massacre next week all around the league.'"
ESPN's Dianna Russini
How it works: The cap is way more complex than we have space for, but here's a quick primer.
Cap accounting is not cash spending. Let's say Player X signs a four-year deal for $50 million, including a $20 million signing bonus and an annual salary of $7.5 million, with just the first two years guaranteed.
The bonus is paid up front, but prorated annually (in this case, $5 million per year) against the cap. So in year one, Player X earns $27.5 million, but just $12.5 million counts against the cap; in year four, the cap hit is still $12.5 million, but he could earn $0 if he's released.
The catch: Dead cap money. Released players' non-guaranteed salary comes off the books, but not the bonus cap hit. And if they're released (or traded) before the final year, the entire remaining bonus cap hit gets lumped into the release year.
Example: Carson Wentz will be off the Eagles' books by 2022, but his huge signing bonuses mean they're carrying $33.82 million in dead cap money for him in 2021.
What to watch: Here are a few players whose age, performance, health and/or contract status could lead to their release in the coming days.
Jimmy Graham (TE, Bears): $10 million cap hit if he stays; $3 million if released.
Preston Smith (LB, Packers): $16 million if he stays; $8 million if released.
Von Miller (LB, Broncos): $22.3 million if he stays; $4.3 million if released.
Trai Turner (G, Chargers): $11.3 million if he stays; $0 if released." Axios
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