I did a little (actually it's not little) breakdown on Phil Steele's accuracy so far this year. Here is the piece I wrote up:
I have bought Phil Steele's college football preview magazine religiously over the last 2 decades. Although it is not as accurate as Phil boasts, I do rely on it considerably, especially to assess unit strengths and weaknesses.
This year I noticed some strange anomalies in his magazine. For example, the unit rankings within a conference were inconsistent with the national rankings. For example, one team would have a better OL ranking than another team in their conference, but the national rankings showed the opposite. Also, some teams were mentioned twice and others not listed.
He also named 5 pac-12 teams in his "surprise team" list. Surprise teams are teams that end up surprisingly good. The Washington Huskies were his #1 surprise team and he has them ranked #9 in his preseason rankings. The other 4 teams are USC, Utah, Arizona St. and Oregon. I'd say, yeah, they have surprised us quite a bit. He has BYU "going down" and a "bear market", meaning they will slide quite a bit from last season.
I wonder if covid did a job on his staff and he is operating with less support. It seems that the magazine wasn't worth the elevated price. In the end, he might be vindicated, after all only 4 weeks have passed. But it has not been a good start. The worst thing is how his teams have performed vs. expectations.
Here is a rundown of how his pre-season top teams have done vs. his rankings and where they are ranked now:
[ol]
Oklahoma (4-0) ranked (4&6) Alabama (4-0) ranked (1&1) Ohio St. (3-1) ranked (10&10) upset once Clemson (2-2) ranked (25&19) upset twice Georgia (4-0) ranked (2&2) Texas A&M (3-1) ranked (15&13) upset once Notre Dame (4-0) ranked (9&7) Iowa St. (2-2) ranked (32&35) upset twice Washington (2-2) unranked an upset once Cincinnati (3-0) ranked (7&8) Wisconsin (1-2) ranked (36&31) upset once North Carolina (2-2) ranked (42&40) upset twice USC (2-2) unranked and upset twice Penn St. (4-0) ranked (4&6) Utah (2-2) unranked and upset twice Miami FL (2-2) unranked and upset once LSU (3-1) ranked (33&34) upset once Indiana (2-2) ranked (45) upset once Oregon (4-0) ranked (3&3) Texas (3-1) ranked (26&26) upset once Arizona St. (3-1) ranked (34&37) upset once Louisiana (3-1) ranked (44) Iowa (4-0) ranked (5&5) Coastal Carolina (4-0) ranked (16&16) TCU (2-1) unranked and upset once. UAB (3-1) unranked Florida (3-1) ranked (10&9) UCF (2-1) ranked (41) Nevada (2-1) unranked Ole Miss (3-0) ranked (12&12) Appalachian St. (3-1) ranked (43) NC St. (3-1) ranked (23&28) Boise St. (2-2) unranked and upset once Northwestern (2-2) unranked and upset once Auburn (3-1) ranked (22&22) Wyoming (4-0) ranked (47) Pittsburgh (3-1) unranked and upset once Wake Forest (4-0) ranked (24&25) Oklahoma St. (4-0) ranked (19&18) Stanford (2-2) unranked and upset once Toledo (2-2) unranked and upset once Houston (3-1) unranked and upset once Liberty (3-1) ranked (38) and upset once UTSA (4-0) ranked (39&38) Memphis (3-1) unranked FAU (2-2) unranked San Diego St. (4-0) ranked (28&29) Marshall (2-2) unranked and upset once [/ol]
In the meantime the following teams are ranked but not mentioned in Phil's top 60:
If you take this collectively, allowing for some variance, Phil's accuracy rate for these 62 teams is 34 out of 62 (55%) and that's being really generous. In other words, he is roughly the same as flipping a coin.
Again it's early, but, like I said, it's not a good start.
I think it's pretty obvious that the following teams are suspect:
and the following teams are probably going to continue to show up:
I'd give him a mulligan because of covid but that was last year.
I have bought Phil Steele's college football preview magazine religiously over the last 2 decades. Although it is not as accurate as Phil boasts, I do rely on it considerably, especially to assess unit strengths and weaknesses.
This year I noticed some strange anomalies in his magazine. For example, the unit rankings within a conference were inconsistent with the national rankings. For example, one team would have a better OL ranking than another team in their conference, but the national rankings showed the opposite. Also, some teams were mentioned twice and others not listed.
He also named 5 pac-12 teams in his "surprise team" list. Surprise teams are teams that end up surprisingly good. The Washington Huskies were his #1 surprise team and he has them ranked #9 in his preseason rankings. The other 4 teams are USC, Utah, Arizona St. and Oregon. I'd say, yeah, they have surprised us quite a bit. He has BYU "going down" and a "bear market", meaning they will slide quite a bit from last season.
I wonder if covid did a job on his staff and he is operating with less support. It seems that the magazine wasn't worth the elevated price. In the end, he might be vindicated, after all only 4 weeks have passed. But it has not been a good start. The worst thing is how his teams have performed vs. expectations.
Here is a rundown of how his pre-season top teams have done vs. his rankings and where they are ranked now:
[ol]
In the meantime the following teams are ranked but not mentioned in Phil's top 60:
- Arkansas (4-0) ranked (8&11) Phil picked Arkansas to finish last in the SEC West
- BYU (4-0) ranked (13&15)
- Michigan St. (4-0) ranked (17&16) Phil picked Michigan St. to finish last in the B1G East
- Fresno St. (4-1) ranked (18&21) Phil picked Fresno St. 5th in the Mountain West West
- UCLA (3-1) ranked (20&20)
- Baylor (4-0) ranked (21&24) Phil picked Baylor tied for 7th in the Big 12
- Maryland (4-0) ranked (27&30) Phil picked Maryland 6th in the B1G East
- SMU (4-0) ranked (32)
- Virginia Tech (3-1) ranked (35&33)
- Army (4-0) ranked (36)
- Rutgers (3-1) ranked (37) Phil picked Rutgers 5th in the B1G East
- Kansas St. (3-1) ranked (38) Phil picked Kansas St. tied for 7th in the Big 12
- Oregon St. (3-1) ranked (40&42) Phil picked Oregon St. last in the pac-12 North
- Louisville (3-1) ranked (41&45) Phil picked Louisville tied for 5th in the ACC Atlantic
If you take this collectively, allowing for some variance, Phil's accuracy rate for these 62 teams is 34 out of 62 (55%) and that's being really generous. In other words, he is roughly the same as flipping a coin.
Again it's early, but, like I said, it's not a good start.
I think it's pretty obvious that the following teams are suspect:
- Texas A&M
- Iowa St.
- Washington
- North Carolina
- USC
- Utah
- Miami FL
and the following teams are probably going to continue to show up:
- Arkansas
- BYU
- Fresno St.
- UCLA
I'd give him a mulligan because of covid but that was last year.