Men of Troy Cal's Next Foe

The Bears are going South hoping their season doesn’t.

I am a firm believer in perspective. While I write about college sports, I always remember that most of the participants are teenagers, unable to rent a car, and most are unable to legally buy alcohol. I try to be the balancing factor, while remaining fully aware that my audience is made up of passionate alumni who invest (sometimes, too much) their own self-worth in the success of their alma mater’s athletes.

On a weekly basis, we look at upcoming opponents, breaking down their strengths and weaknesses, taking as positive an attitude as possible toward the weekend’s game.

This does not relieve me of the need to be frank in assessing the team and its prospects for the future.

The stark reality is this: Cal needs six wins to be bowl eligible, and possibly seven to be selected to a bowl game. At 3-5, this means they may have to run the table; at a minimum, they need three wins in the final four contests.

The chances of that are slim, and none, and slim is getting smaller and smaller in the rearview mirror. In order to pull off this minor miracle, the Golden Bears, losers of 21 of their last 22 games against Top-10 competition, have to knock off #9 USC, then face #24 Oregon State, and finish the year with #10 UCLA. The lone break in that gantlet is Stanford, a game so heavily burdened with emotional baggage as to NEVER qualify as a “breather”.

It starts Saturday in the LA Coliseum against the USC Trojans, who are 7-1 under first-year coach Lincoln Riley, the first Trojan head coach to start his career with such gaudy numbers since John Robinson 46 seasons ago. The Trojans are favored by 21 points, and that’s probably fair.
I saw USC in person when they were in the Bay Area in early September to play Stanford. The Cardinal still had their premier running back at that time, and racked up almost 450 yards of offense against the Trojans – and still entered the fourth quarter trailing 41-14.

It's not very often that a team loses its all-time leader in completion percentage and improves at quarterback, but the Men of Troy did exactly that. Kedon Slovis entered the transfer portal with his nearly 69% career completion average and 58 touchdowns once Coach Riley brought with him freshman sensation Caleb Williams from Oklahoma. With a career 66% completion percentage, with 45 touchdowns already, just 2/3 of the way into his sophomore year, Williams is the key to the USC offense, which is one of the most potent in the nation.

By the numbers, Williams ranks 3rd in the nation, 1st in the conference, in passing TDs with 24; 9th in the nation and 4th in the Pac-12 in total offense with 328.9 yards per game, 11th nationally and 3rd in the conference in passing efficiency with a 165.6 rating, and first in the conference averaging 13.38 yards per completion.

USC is the only FBS team never to have put player names on their uniforms. It’s probably just as well, because with three outstanding players named Williams (all unrelated), it could get confusing this year.

Caleb Williams has a pair of outstanding wideouts that carry the family name: CJ Williams, a true freshman from Mater Dei High School in Santa Ana, perennial prep powerhouse and USC pipeline since the days of John and JK McKay, and sophomore Mario Williams, who came with Caleb from Oklahoma. If that’s not enough weaponry for the QB, Riley was able to pluck the 2021 Biletnikoff Award Winner, Jordan Addison, from Pittsburgh via the transfer portal. Addison set a Pittsburgh program record with 100 catches last year for just shy of 1600 yards and 17 TDs, which tied him for the national lead.

To make things even tougher, USC simply does not turn the ball over. They have lost ZERO fumbles through eight games, and Williams has been intercepted once. That’s right, the first-team offense has allowed one turnover, and zero points off turnovers. As you might guess, that ranks first in all of college football. Why does that matter so much? Well, Cal (32-71-5 all-time vs. USC) has won two of the last three meetings between the teams, aided greatly by turnovers.

Don’t let the Trojans even sniff the end zone – they are 36-of-42 there, including 32 touchdowns. Of the 6 non-scoring entries into the red zone, two came as the game ended, and another resulted in a penalty that took the team out of the red zone.

The running game features yet another plum picked from the transfer portal: Travis Dye, formerly of the Oregon Ducks. In 48 games for the Ducks, Dye averaged 6 yards per carry while tallying 3,111 yards (5th all-time at Oregon). For the Trojans, he’s put up 4 100-yard games in his first 8 starts, with Austin Jones adding another century-mark game to the list. Dye’s 95 yard-per-game average and 760 total rushing yards both rank second in the Pac-12.

On defense, the Trojans are a little bit vulnerable. They are allowing 24 points per game, and a not-very-good Arizona squad racked up 28 first downs against them, 11 on the ground on only 26 attempts.  Jaydn Ott and the wide receiver corps for Cal will have to be letter-perfect for the Golden Bears to pull off the upset.

Kickoff is Saturday evening at 7:30 pm Pacific. The game is televised nationally on ESPN’s flagship channel with Dave Pasch and Dusty Dvoracek mikeside and Tom Luginbill prowling the sidelines. Don’t forget to set your clock back an hour after the game ends.