While he hasn’t yet chosen the Bears, Cal is in a good position to land the services of a transfer QB,
Chandler Rogers was a Group of 5 level QB recruit out of high school, who choose to attend Southern Mississippi before going to a Junior College and lastly, Louisiana-Monroe. He’s no taller than 6’1 and he’s not blessed with a cannon for a right arm. So how is he a possible (likely?) upgrade for the Bears at the QB position?
It starts with a deeper dive into his productivity this past season at ULM. Football is a game of interdependence. You give a QB all day to throw, great weapons at WR, and a solid run game, and that QB is going to win a lot of games and post some impressive statistics. Conversely, if your OL is a sieve and your skill talent is poor, even a great QB is going to struggle.
Chandler Rogers played for a bad ULM team last year. He was sacked 42 times with only 320 pass attempts, meaning he was sacked on nearly 12% of the snaps where he attempted to pass the ball. Let’s relate that to Cal and Jack Plummer in 2022. Jack was sacked 31 times (a tremendously high number) against 484 attempts or 6% of the time. As bad as the Bears' pass protection was last season, ULM’s was FAR worse (with regard to sacks per attempt, twice as bad).
Rogers was also plagued with a receiving corps that couldn’t catch the ball. ULM finished 4th in the nation in yards lost to receiving drops. And their running game? ULM's leading rusher gained only 507 yards with a 3.7 yards per carry average. Their second-leading rusher was Rogers, who scored 5 rushing TDs and gained 353 yards, even with the negative yardage added in from his 42 sacks. Compare that to Cal, where Ott posted nearly 900 yards on a 5.3 ypc average and Plummer ended up with -126 yards despite having taken 11 fewer sacks.
Despite all these challenges, Rogers posted a more than respectable 141.7 QB rating. A rating that was 6th in the Sun Belt on a team that finished tied for 11th in the conference. Rogers is highly accurate, with a 67.5% completion rate. Adjusted for drops, his completion rate was an exceptional 76.5%. If Rogers had attempted the same number of passes as Plummer had last season, he would have passed for more yards, as his yards per attempt was higher than Jack's. Rogers threw a few interceptions but never had a game with more than one. It’s also important to note that Rogers has had two years as a full-time starter, and his freshman year at ULM numbers was not far behind what he posted in 2022.
Rodgers is blessed with explosive running ability. Beyond his impressive numbers last season at ULM (when adjusted for sacks), he gained over 1000 yards during his senior year in HS (inclusive of sack yards) and scored 10 TDs while averaging over 7 yards per carry. Compare that to Kai Milner, who rushed for half the number of yards and 6 TDs as a Senior averaging 5.4 ypc. For something more visceral than his stats, check out this clip from his HS days - Some Serious Juice
Watching his film, it’s not hard to fathom what has Spavital so excited. Rogers is tailor-made for Spav’s offense. A fast decision-maker who gets the ball out quickly, Rogers is going to get the ball out to his weapons in space early and often. Naturally accurate, he throws a WR-friendly ball that often catches his receivers in stride on a host of WR screens, crossers, seams, and quick outs. For someone with as explosive a pair of legs as Rogers has, he’s far more patient in the pocket than one might expect, working through his progressions to find the open receiver. While Rogers's arm is not as big as Plummer’s, it’s likely better than Garbers and he delivers it from a far more consistent base. It’s hard to know how well he throws the deep ball as he rarely had time for post routes or deeper outs.
A more fulsome view of his passing ability
Until he does it in the Pac-12, there are going to be questions about how Rogers projects at the Power 5 level. His size isn’t ideal nor is he blessed with a big-time arm. However, his legs are clearly a weapon, his innate accuracy, decision-making, quick release and consistent production without any type of a supporting cast are all reasons to believe he may be a very good fit in Spavital’s 2023 Cal Offense.
