Mark this and check later on Wilner's "final predictions"...

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BearSD
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11:21a, 3/3/23
https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/03/01/pac-12-media-rights-our-final-predictions-for-the-revenue-media-partners-expansion-decisions-and-more/

Money
Quote:
We project the Pac-12's valuation to fall within 10 percent of the Big 12's agreement with ESPN and Fox, which will pay each school an average of $31.7 million annually starting in 2024-25.
That places the Pac-12's range as $28.5 million (per school) annually on the low end and $34.9 million annually on the high end.
Our target number is $29.7 million.
Media partners
Quote:
As a result, the Hotline expects a media deal with ESPN and either Apple or Amazon, and we wouldn't rule out the possibility for both companies to be involved.

We expect Pac-12 football and men's basketball games to be included in the rights agreement with one of the major media companies.
Expansion, or not
Quote:
Our view of the outcomes:
Two schools: 50 percent
Zero schools: 45 percent
Four schools: 5 percent
SMU and San Diego State seemingly sit atop the candidate list but are not the only universities Kliavkoff has evaluated for membership. (We have been unable to confirm the others.)
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Bobodeluxe
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In reply to BearSD • 11:53a, 3/3/23
BearSD said:
https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/03/01/pac-12-media-rights-our-final-predictions-for-the-revenue-media-partners-expansion-decisions-and-more/

Money
Quote:
We project the Pac-12's valuation to fall within 10 percent of the Big 12's agreement with ESPN and Fox, which will pay each school an average of $31.7 million annually starting in 2024-25.
That places the Pac-12's range as $28.5 million (per school) annually on the low end and $34.9 million annually on the high end.
Our target number is $29.7 million.
Media partners
Quote:
As a result, the Hotline expects a media deal with ESPN and either Apple or Amazon, and we wouldn't rule out the possibility for both companies to be involved.

We expect Pac-12 football and men's basketball games to be included in the rights agreement with one of the major media companies.
Expansion, or not
Quote:
Our view of the outcomes:
Two schools: 50 percent
Zero schools: 45 percent
Four schools: 5 percent
SMU and San Diego State seemingly sit atop the candidate list but are not the only universities Kliavkoff has evaluated for membership. (We have been unable to confirm the others.)
I believe he is deliberately leaving out KABOOM!
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BearSD
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12:13p, 3/3/23
Wilner has that covered as well...
Quote:
If the end of March arrives and the same state of uncertainty still exists, then survival will be favored over extinction by merely a field goal.
On the same subject, Canzano put it this way...
Quote:
I don't know if Kliavkoff is a fisherman. But I think he needs to appear on the deck of the SS Pac-12 next week, smiling, holding up a fish and telling us how he caught it. Some real news on the media rights front? A confirmation that the conference is definitely expanding? Either that, or he'd better arrive with some sensible talking points to curb some of the "Chicken Little" handwringing going on out there.

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Bobodeluxe
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12:21p, 3/3/23
If everyone splits bb from football, like the b12 hopes, the UC Berkeley Bears will case in, BIGGLY!
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OskiDeLaHoya
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12:49p, 3/3/23
According to a poster on BRO, the **** might hit the fan next week:



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calumnus
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In reply to OskiDeLaHoya • 2:20p, 3/3/23
OskiDeLaHoya said:
According to a poster on BRO, the **** might hit the fan next week:





Sounds like Kliavkoff is about to fail in his quest to keep the PAC-12 as a separate conference.

Utah, Colorado, ASU and Arizona going to the Big 12 would actually make UW, Oregon, Cal and Stanford getting an invite to the B1G more likely, but at fire sale prices.

If not the B1G, merging with the ACC as a 6 (or 8 with SDSU plus?) team West Coast pod is a good option.
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BearSD
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In reply to calumnus • 3:43p, 3/3/23
calumnus said:

Sounds like Kliavkoff is about to fail in his quest to keep the PAC-12 as a separate conference.

Utah, Colorado, ASU and Arizona going to the Big 12 would actually make UW, Oregon, Cal and Stanford getting an invite to the B1G more likely, but at fire sale prices.

If not the B1G, merging with the ACC as a 6 (or 8 with SDSU plus?) team West Coast pod is a good option.


99 percent of this stuff from eastern sportswriters and internet randos is guys making stuff up and hoping it comes true.

But if the haters' dreams do come true, then IMO some combination with four or more Mountain West schools is far more likely, in the near term, than anything "Big" or "Atlantic".
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berserkeley
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In reply to OskiDeLaHoya • 4:00p, 3/3/23
OskiDeLaHoya said:
According to a poster on BRO, the **** might hit the fan next week:



This is obviously not credible.

If Utah and ASU jump to the Big XII, it seems unlikely that Arizona and Colorado would get left behind.

Kliavkoff wouldn't try a hail mary with Colorado State unless it was to replace Colorado.

If Colorado State turns down the Pac12, there's no way SDSU and SMU join the conference.

If Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Oregon State and Washington State are the only remaining members, there is no conference (NCAA requires 7 team to be a conference) and therefore no deal with Amazon/Apple and ESPN. It's true though that the total money would be miniscule because it would be $0.
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OskiDeLaHoya
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In reply to berserkeley • 5:06p, 3/3/23
I thought for sure Colorado State must've been a typo and he meant Arizona State (since he talked about Colorado and Arizona State in the first part)

But now, Canzano has also mentioned Colorado State and I don't know what to think anymore.
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calumnus
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In reply to berserkeley • 5:35p, 3/3/23
berserkeley said:
OskiDeLaHoya said:
According to a poster on BRO, the **** might hit the fan next week:



This is obviously not credible.

If Utah and ASU jump to the Big XII, it seems unlikely that Arizona and Colorado would get left behind.

Kliavkoff wouldn't try a hail mary with Colorado State unless it was to replace Colorado.

If Colorado State turns down the Pac12, there's no way SDSU and SMU join the conference.

If Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Oregon State and Washington State are the only remaining members, there is no conference (NCAA requires 7 team to be a conference) and therefore no deal with Amazon/Apple and ESPN. It's true though that the total money would be miniscule because it would be $0.


If the 6 stay together I am very sure SDSU would join to make 7 (unless the big 12 grabs them too) and finding an 8th or more from the MWC would not be tough. The problem is UW and Oregon would be looking to bolt as soon as they got a better offer. Should be us and Stanford too, but I am less certain about our administration.
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tequila4kapp
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In reply to OskiDeLaHoya • 6:54p, 3/3/23
OskiDeLaHoya said:
According to a poster on BRO, the **** might hit the fan next week:



The problem with this projection is new B12 teams only get a percentage of their 31.7m deal. IIRC like 60%. So the allegedly departing schools would have to value distribution channels alone as being worth more than @7m annually. I find that a little hard to believe.
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tequila4kapp
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In reply to berserkeley • 6:59p, 3/3/23
berserkeley said:
OskiDeLaHoya said:
According to a poster on BRO, the **** might hit the fan next week:



This is obviously not credible.

If Utah and ASU jump to the Big XII, it seems unlikely that Arizona and Colorado would get left behind.

Kliavkoff wouldn't try a hail mary with Colorado State unless it was to replace Colorado.

If Colorado State turns down the Pac12, there's no way SDSU and SMU join the conference.

If Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Oregon State and Washington State are the only remaining members, there is no conference (NCAA requires 7 team to be a conference) and therefore no deal with Amazon/Apple and ESPN. It's true though that the total money would be miniscule because it would be $0.
All additional reasons (over and above the 60% income thing I mentioned separately) this isn't very credible.

To add more context ... the alleged streaming partners would never be so cheap as to end up with zero content. Those guys didn't become big huge companies by making such stupidly short sighted decisions. They obviously strive to pay the lowest number that keeps the conference together, not one so low as to break the conference up.
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berserkeley
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In reply to OskiDeLaHoya • 7:10p, 3/3/23
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GivemTheAxe
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In reply to BearSD • 10:01p, 3/3/23
BearSD said:
https://www.mercurynews.com/2023/03/01/pac-12-media-rights-our-final-predictions-for-the-revenue-media-partners-expansion-decisions-and-more/

Money
Quote:
We project the Pac-12's valuation to fall within 10 percent of the Big 12's agreement with ESPN and Fox, which will pay each school an average of $31.7 million annually starting in 2024-25.
That places the Pac-12's range as $28.5 million (per school) annually on the low end and $34.9 million annually on the high end.
Our target number is $29.7 million.
Media partners
Quote:
As a result, the Hotline expects a media deal with ESPN and either Apple or Amazon, and we wouldn't rule out the possibility for both companies to be involved.

We expect Pac-12 football and men's basketball games to be included in the rights agreement with one of the major media companies.
Expansion, or not
Quote:
Our view of the outcomes:
Two schools: 50 percent
Zero schools: 45 percent
Four schools: 5 percent
SMU and San Diego State seemingly sit atop the candidate list but are not the only universities Kliavkoff has evaluated for membership. (We have been unable to confirm the others.)


I read that Cal gets paid MORE if the network does NOT have to broadcast Cal Men's Basketball
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heartofthebear
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10:12p, 3/3/23
I have Wilner on ignore
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calumnus
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In reply to tequila4kapp • 1:01a, 3/5/23
tequila4kapp said:
OskiDeLaHoya said:
According to a poster on BRO, the **** might hit the fan next week:



The problem with this projection is new B12 teams only get a percentage of their 31.7m deal. IIRC like 60%. So the allegedly departing schools would have to value distribution channels alone as being worth more than @7m annually. I find that a little hard to believe.


I think they get a huge exit payout from Texas and Oklahoma that they want to use to raid the Pac-10.
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91Cal
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In reply to calumnus • 9:12a, 3/5/23
calumnus said:
tequila4kapp said:
OskiDeLaHoya said:
According to a poster on BRO, the **** might hit the fan next week:



The problem with this projection is new B12 teams only get a percentage of their 31.7m deal. IIRC like 60%. So the allegedly departing schools would have to value distribution channels alone as being worth more than @7m annually. I find that a little hard to believe.


I think they get a huge exit payout from Texas and Oklahoma that they want to use to raid the Pac-10.

At this point, it sure looks like George has been significantly outmaneuvered by BY unless the former has better numbers lined up than ANY of the chatter. If he does, this will go down as the "Dewey Beats Truman" moment
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