Strykur said:

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calumnus said:

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bearchamp said:

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Cal's defense shows weaker statistically BECAUSE the offense was weak and thus the defense was on the field more than if the offense was controlling the ball.

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FWIW, last year we were last (#12) in the conference in pass defense, #123 nationally. One of the worst in the country.

So no matter what anyone says, Wilcox does not always put out great defenses and there is definitely ALOT of room for improvement on defense this year.

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Didn't help that our offense was leaving the defense out to dry in most of those games last year (we had the ball for less than 25 minutes against Washington and less than 24 minutes at Oregon State, and get this, against the bear runts our offense was on the field for 23 MINUTES 10 SECONDS). Even in Big Game we only had the ball for 26 minutes.

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And that was with Musgrave's huddle up, burn clock, run Ott up the middle, repeat, offense.

Econ141 said:

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First year there is no sunshine pumping. Everyone predicting a 6-6 record or worse. The Bear has quit. The Bear has died.

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Here's my version of "sunshine." I think the team was not far away from winning a few more games last year, and I think we will be stronger (potentially much stronger) on both offense and defense. How much this can counteract an inarguably tougher schedule remains to be seen.

But here's my three-part formula for an 8-win (or more) year:

1. Jackson has to be the real deal, in year 1. This doesn't mean he needs to be a Heisman contender, but he needs to be as elusive and as fast as advertised, he needs to make the throws he "should" make, and he needs to generally make good decisions under pressure. Something in the "Honorable Mention All Conference" range of performance. None of that feels impossible.

2. The OL has to not be the weak link that kills the offense. Whether it's because they are that much better, or because the scheme is far more friendly to the OL, or some combination of both, it simply has to happen. And just based on the improvement in the last two games last year, I'm cautiously optimistic this will be the case. We won't have the top OL in the league, but it's not crazy to hope for "average."

3. The team has to stay relatively healthy, and avoid those soul crushing long-term injuries we always seem to face. Sure, every team faces injuries every year. But some have 4 and 5 star depth all the way through their two-deep, so the losses have far less impact. And other teams just get lucky in a particular year and have injuries in the "right" areas. We simply need to be one of those "lucky" teams this year.

And that's it. Strong (but not necessarily elite) QB play, competent OL play, and avoid the "wrong" injuries. Accomplish those three things, and I think this is not only a bowl team, but potentially a "good" bowl team. And that's my version of some sunshine.

zorbarick said:

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Econ141 said:

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First year there is no sunshine pumping. Everyone predicting a 6-6 record or worse. The Bear has quit. The Bear has died.

---

Here's my version of "sunshine." I think the team was not far away from winning a few more games last year, and I think we will be stronger (potentially much stronger) on both offense and defense. How much this can counteract an inarguably tougher schedule remains to be seen.

But here's my three-part formula for an 8-win (or more) year:

1. Jackson has to be the real deal, in year 1. This doesn't mean he needs to be a Heisman contender, but he needs to be as elusive and as fast as advertised, he needs to make the throws he "should" make, and he needs to generally make good decisions under pressure. Something in the "Honorable Mention All Conference" range of performance. None of that feels impossible.

2. The OL has to not be the weak link that kills the offense. Whether it's because they are that much better, or because the scheme is far more friendly to the OL, or some combination of both, it simply has to happen. And just based on the improvement in the last two games last year, I'm cautiously optimistic this will be the case. We won't have the top OL in the league, but it's not crazy to hope for "average."

3. The team has to stay relatively healthy, and avoid those soul crushing long-term injuries we always seem to face. Sure, every team faces injuries every year. But some have 4 and 5 star depth all the way through their two-deep, so the losses have far less impact. And other teams just get lucky in a particular year and have injuries in the "right" areas. We simply need to be one of those "lucky" teams this year.

And that's it. Strong (but not necessarily elite) QB play, competent OL play, and avoid the "wrong" injuries. Accomplish those three things, and I think this is not only a bowl team, but potentially a "good" bowl team. And that's my version of some sunshine.

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Yum yum.

GivemTheAxe said:

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wifeisafurd said:

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Nice to see the Pac is getting some respect in the nations polls. It still is rather early, but Utah, SC, Udub (a team Cal started the 4th quarter tied with in 2022), Oregon State are for real. Less convinced about the others, and I think UCLA, in particular, will have some growing pains with new players at key positions.

Utah and Udub seen invincible at home. Could Cal surprise SC or OSU at home, maybe. Good defense keeps you in the game. Physically this is the best defense Wilcox has had (citing Wilcox), and defense keeps you in games. Offense? Who knows? But if the offense finds it stride, Cal is capable of some upsets. Until we see Cal play with all the roster and coaching changes, it is really hard to project where Cal sits in the
conference.

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I totally agree with your conclusion: "Cal is capable of some upsets. Until we see Cal play with all the roster and coaching changes it is really hard to project where Cal sits in the Conference"
At present I see an 8-win season and a 4-win season as equal probabilities.

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yup....

zorbarick said:

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Econ141 said:

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First year there is no sunshine pumping. Everyone predicting a 6-6 record or worse. The Bear has quit. The Bear has died.

---

Here's my version of "sunshine." I think the team was not far away from winning a few more games last year, and I think we will be stronger (potentially much stronger) on both offense and defense. How much this can counteract an inarguably tougher schedule remains to be seen.

But here's my three-part formula for an 8-win (or more) year:

1. Jackson has to be the real deal, in year 1. This doesn't mean he needs to be a Heisman contender, but he needs to be as elusive and as fast as advertised, he needs to make the throws he "should" make, and he needs to generally make good decisions under pressure. Something in the "Honorable Mention All Conference" range of performance. None of that feels impossible.

2. The OL has to not be the weak link that kills the offense. Whether it's because they are that much better, or because the scheme is far more friendly to the OL, or some combination of both, it simply has to happen. And just based on the improvement in the last two games last year, I'm cautiously optimistic this will be the case. We won't have the top OL in the league, but it's not crazy to hope for "average."

3. The team has to stay relatively healthy, and avoid those soul crushing long-term injuries we always seem to face. Sure, every team faces injuries every year. But some have 4 and 5 star depth all the way through their two-deep, so the losses have far less impact. And other teams just get lucky in a particular year and have injuries in the "right" areas. We simply need to be one of those "lucky" teams this year.

And that's it. Strong (but not necessarily elite) QB play, competent OL play, and avoid the "wrong" injuries. Accomplish those three things, and I think this is not only a bowl team, but potentially a "good" bowl team. And that's my version of some sunshine.

---

We need to get back to playing good defense too. Cal had the #123 pass defense in the nation last year, worst in the PAC-12. We can't ask Spavital, Jackson and Ott to make up for that, we need to combine good offense with good defense.

Pay attention to what the media projects at Pac12 Day, usually around July 31. I have found they are awfully accurate in predicting how a season will go for various teams.

At least this season we do not play Notre Dame. The refs ought to be equally incompetent with reference to each conference team.

southseasbear said:

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Blueblood said:

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southseasbear said:

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Blueblood said:

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... but doing the same
against Auburn, ASU, and Wazzu, even though all home games, is another matter.

What I'm implying is that make sure your TV is in good operational order and you have plenty of holiday snacks. I wonder if many Cal fans are over-weight?

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Why the concern over ASU? They were crappy last year. This year good ol' Beau Baldwin is their OC.

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Because of over 40 new incomers via the portal and regular recruiting, Cal will not be facing last years Sun Devil team; they still may play like last years team, but who knows? Plus, Cal didn't play that far from "crappy."

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But . . . Beau Baldwin. When was the last time he coached well?

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Haven't thought of that guy since we canned him, but it pleases me that he sucked every bit as much at Cal Poly as he did here. Wilcox really knows how to pick 'em.

Anarchistbear said:

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Our backs are against the wall and it's June. Find that elusive 6th win and go the Bud Light Bowl in Buffalo on December 9. 2023. Lose and always wonder what could've been.

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I hope Dylan Mulvaney will be there. It just isn't the Bud Light Bowl without she/her.

BearHunter said:

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Anarchistbear said:

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Our backs are against the wall and it's June. Find that elusive 6th win and go the Bud Light Bowl in Buffalo on December 9. 2023. Lose and always wonder what could've been.

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Cal...we'll play anyone, anywhere.

Cheez-It, Bud Light, it doesn't matter.

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Is the Four Seasons Landscaping Bowl still a possibility?

I think he left on his own accord

Goldener Bar said:

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southseasbear said:

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Blueblood said:

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southseasbear said:

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Blueblood said:

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... but doing the same
against Auburn, ASU, and Wazzu, even though all home games, is another matter.

What I'm implying is that make sure your TV is in good operational order and you have plenty of holiday snacks. I wonder if many Cal fans are over-weight?

---

Why the concern over ASU? They were crappy last year. This year good ol' Beau Baldwin is their OC.

---

Because of over 40 new incomers via the portal and regular recruiting, Cal will not be facing last years Sun Devil team; they still may play like last years team, but who knows? Plus, Cal didn't play that far from "crappy."

---

But . . . Beau Baldwin. When was the last time he coached well?

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Haven't thought of that guy since we canned him, but it pleases me that he sucked every bit as much at Cal Polly as he did here. Wilcox really knows how to pick 'em.

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In football, the ability to pick, hire and retain good assistants (especially coordinators) and quickly move on from bad ones is essential. Tedford was good with Cortez at OC. Not so much afterward (instead of hiring good guys and delegating he was workaholic, control freak, who then burned out).

I think this has been Wilcox's biggest failing, hiring mostly his friends or guys with Pacific Northwest connections, delegating to them and staying overly loyal to them. It has been too narrow a pool. I think it has impacted our recruiting too.

Now we have some Texas flavor on the offensive side, guys with less connection to Wilcox. I'd like to see some Southern California and Hawaii connections on the staff too.

Imagine if in 2017, Wilcox retained Spavital as OC while bringing in DeRuyter as DC? (Maybe give them associate HC titles?). Then retained them until they got HC offers. We would be in a very different position right now (we would probably have a B1G invite).

calumnus said:

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We need to get back to playing good defense too. Cal had the #123 pass defense in the nation last year, worst in the PAC-12. We can't ask Spavital, Jackson and Ott to make up for that, we need to combine good offense with good defense.

---

I think this ties directly to my third point regarding injuries. Our DL was decimated last year, which impacted the entire defense and defensive scheme. Assuming we have upgraded our secondary and that we have a healthy DL, I think the defense is automatically much better. But sadly, it's always a matter of a few key injuries for Cal since the depth simply isn't there at many positions (though I think this team does have more depth in some key areas).

evanluck said:

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Blueblood said:

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The latest AP Top 25 just came out.

The following Cal 2023 opponents were ranked therein:

#8 Washington
#10 Utah
#12 USC
#15 Oregon
#17 Oregon State
#21 ucla

Assuming these games are losses (and I believe they are), Cal's chances of getting a post-season bowl bid looks to be a very difficult task.

The above may mean the Bears' hope of achieving the needed six wins will have to come from winning all six remaining games on its schedule. That is, this group consists of North Texas, Auburn, Idaho, ASU, Wazzu, and the furds. I believe beating The Mean Green, the Vandals, and the furds seems doable, but doing the same
against Auburn, ASU, and Wazzu, even though all home games, is another matter.

What I'm implying is that make sure your TV is in good operational order and you have plenty of holiday snacks. I wonder if many Cal fans are over-weight?

---

It's a daunting schedule this year for sure. But the games never completely turn out according to ranking. [Maybe?..but...but we're a'talkin' Cal here where recently this hasn't been true...I mean at least against Pac 12 opponents like oregon, UDub, usc, ucla, etc.] Under Wilcox most of the the losses are close. [Yes... a loss is a loss, is it not? I've seen too many, I guess.]Just need a season where things bounce right more than they bounce wrong. I used to go along with what you say, but I've been waiting a long time for that season.]This mostly happens because of the confidence level of the players. As fans we can help by our belief. The only thing we risk is disappointment. [Yes, true...but I have lost a little money, suffered office humiliation, have been overrun with skepticism, etc. too].

Much better at this stage to indulge in the hype rather than looking at the somber side of the facts and preparing for the worst. [Forget the facts?...never... I guess I'm cursed!] We risk nothing in believing in the team at this stage. are the ones doing all the work. But the random luck of the ball bouncing the right way on key plays is a product of the collective positive belief of people who focus on the team. Obviously players and coaches have the greatest influence but the effect of fans is not zero. [Oh gee, you're saying its all my fault!... oh the shame!]

We always point to common threads associated with Cal's under performance over the years. The administration is the biggest target. But another common thread is the general attitude of the some of most engaged fans that Cal is somehow, at the level of its DNA, a losing brand. [Well...I mean... Cal hasn't done s#!% for over 62 years now.] Only true because enough people have chosen to believe it to be true. [Damn me...I didn't know.....I'm sorry BI fans.]Beliefs are thoughts we keep thinking. Change the thought to change the belief to change the experience! [And all this tie I thought it was other way around...I mean....I thought it was change the experience that would change the thought which in turn would change the belief!.....now don't blame me too much....I am left handed!]

Go Bears! Let's go Bowling!

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zorbarick said:

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calumnus said:

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We need to get back to playing good defense too. Cal had the #123 pass defense in the nation last year, worst in the PAC-12. We can't ask Spavital, Jackson and Ott to make up for that, we need to combine good offense with good defense.

---

I think this ties directly to my third point regarding injuries. Our DL was decimated last year, which impacted the entire defense and defensive scheme. Assuming we have upgraded our secondary and that we have a healthy DL, I think the defense is automatically much better. But sadly, it's always a matter of a few key injuries for Cal since the depth simply isn't there at many positions (though I think this team does have more depth in some key areas).

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It's not just warm bodies. Depth means guys who can play. This is the first year I can remember when we've got those kinds of players in the 3 deep at just about every D position. Peter will be able to rotate guys early and often, so that when we get to the last 4 games, we'll have players at every spot.

Rushinbear said:

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zorbarick said:

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calumnus said:

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We need to get back to playing good defense too. Cal had the #123 pass defense in the nation last year, worst in the PAC-12. We can't ask Spavital, Jackson and Ott to make up for that, we need to combine good offense with good defense.

---

I think this ties directly to my third point regarding injuries. Our DL was decimated last year, which impacted the entire defense and defensive scheme. Assuming we have upgraded our secondary and that we have a healthy DL, I think the defense is automatically much better. But sadly, it's always a matter of a few key injuries for Cal since the depth simply isn't there at many positions (though I think this team does have more depth in some key areas).

---

It's not just warm bodies. Depth means guys who can play. This is the first year I can remember when we've got those kinds of players in the 3 deep at just about every D position. Peter will be able to rotate guys early and often, so that when we get to the last 4 games, we'll have players at every spot.

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Rushinbear, you have an extremely optimistic take.

Even so, I could remotely agree (even if just to keep spirits temporarily up on this site). But, the last four games will be against some very competitive teams - the furds, Oregon, the Cougs, and ucla. I mean, your claim is made that Cal's depth, i.e., currently projected 2nd and 3rd string players, will allow Cal to not-miss-a-beat against these aforementioned teams, two of which have been pre-season ranked in the AP top 25.

I find it hard to swallow your take.

Oh sure, it could be fantasized that the above mentioned teams may also be worn down at this late date in the season. It's possible but not likely viz-a-viz comparing Cal's cited bench depth against the overall talent levels of the majority of these last four teams.

I do agree that Cal will need all its depth in these last 4 games. I think this because Cal in a sense will be facing a Pac 12 murders'-row in their latter half consecutive games starting, before playing Oregon, Wazzu, and ucla, with Oregon State, Utah, and u$C. This leads me to believe that there is a more likely chance Cal may be pretty chewed up towards the end of the season.

Blueblood said:

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Rushinbear said:

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zorbarick said:

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calumnus said:

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We need to get back to playing good defense too. Cal had the #123 pass defense in the nation last year, worst in the PAC-12. We can't ask Spavital, Jackson and Ott to make up for that, we need to combine good offense with good defense.

---

I think this ties directly to my third point regarding injuries. Our DL was decimated last year, which impacted the entire defense and defensive scheme. Assuming we have upgraded our secondary and that we have a healthy DL, I think the defense is automatically much better. But sadly, it's always a matter of a few key injuries for Cal since the depth simply isn't there at many positions (though I think this team does have more depth in some key areas).

---

It's not just warm bodies. Depth means guys who can play. This is the first year I can remember when we've got those kinds of players in the 3 deep at just about every D position. Peter will be able to rotate guys early and often, so that when we get to the last 4 games, we'll have players at every spot.

---

Rushinbear, you have an extremely optimistic take.

Even so, I could remotely agree (even if just to keep spirits temporarily up on this site). But, the last four games will be against some very competitive teams - the furds, Oregon, the Cougs, and ucla. I mean, your claim is made that Cal's depth, i.e., currently projected 2nd and 3rd string players, will allow Cal to not-miss-a-beat against these aforementioned teams, two of which have been pre-season ranked in the AP top 25.

I find it hard to swallow your take.

Oh sure, it could be fantasized that the above mentioned teams may also be worn down at this late date in the season. It's possible but not likely viz-a-viz comparing Cal's cited bench depth against the overall talent levels of the majority of these last four teams.

I do agree that Cal will need all its depth in these last 4 games. I think this because Cal in a sense will be facing a Pac 12 murders'-row in their latter half consecutive games starting, before playing Oregon, Wazzu, and ucla, with Oregon State, Utah, and u$C. This leads me to believe that there is a more likely chance Cal may be pretty chewed up towards the end of the season.

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Less chewed up, is my point. Subbing will have to start with NTU and especially Auburn, and continue on through the year. The coaches are going to have to bite the bullet and do it..

I'm not saying we'll win those late games (except furd and maybe WSU), but having fresher players will give us better chances. When newcomers displace former starters, it's a good sign.

"It's amazing to me that many more of you BI fans
don't realize that Wilcox is a waste of time for Cal football!"

Blueblood said:

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"It's amazing to me that many more of you BI fans
don't realize that Wilcox is a waste of time for Cal football!"

---

NIL is leveling the playing field. Wilcox has two character traits that have limited him so far. The first is his loyalty to under performing Offensive Coordinators. The second is his lack of salesmanship to increase the talent level of the team in the backdrop of unimpressive on the field performance.

If NIL can bump up the talent level and the team can win a couple to a few more games consistently for a couple years, then we can see Wilcox create a situation where his strengths of integrity and culture building can be better leveraged.

He's got too big of a payout for us to cut ties and he's producing the best portal recruiting class of his tenure. If you are of the means to pay for his buyout by all means lobby the powers that be for the change you think is necessary.

If you don't and still want to focus on the team, doesn't it feel better to believe that with the combination of a well organized and thought out NIL effort, Wilcox's ability to produce a family-oriented culture where players feel valued and fairly treated, and what looks like an improved defense and better offensive scheme, can produce a season that we can feel good about?

Go Bears!

evanluck said:

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Blueblood said:

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"It's amazing to me that many more of you BI fans
don't realize that Wilcox is a waste of time for Cal football!"

---

NIL is leveling the playing field. Wilcox has two character traits that have limited him so far. The first is his loyalty to under performing Offensive Coordinators. The second is his lack of salesmanship to increase the talent level of the team in the backdrop of unimpressive on the field performance.

If NIL can bump up the talent level and the team can win a couple to a few more games consistently for a couple years, then we can see Wilcox create a situation where his strengths of integrity and culture building can be better leveraged.

He's got too big of a payout for us to cut ties and he's producing the best portal recruiting class of his tenure. If you are of the means to pay for his buyout by all means lobby the powers that be for the change you think is necessary.

If you don't and still want to focus on the team, doesn't it feel better to believe that with the combination of a well organized and thought out NIL effort, Wilcox's ability to produce a family-oriented culture where players feel valued and fairly treated, and what looks like an improved defense and better offensive scheme, can produce a season that we can feel good about?

Go Bears!

---

If you fire JW before JK goes, you will get a JW clone in his place (no demands, no waves). It really comes down to Jake. Can he squeeze out 2 more wins and can he put up with JW's passivity?

evanluck said:

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Blueblood said:

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This is Blueblood, see my comments below
"It's amazing to me that many more of you BI fans
don't realize that Wilcox is a waste of time for Cal football!"

---

NIL is leveling the playing field. [Oh? For schools like Cal I don't believe this is or will prove true. NIL is a money game for which a school must have the financial resources and associated smarts to do well; Cal does not have this pedigree.] Wilcox has two character traits that have limited him so far. The first is his loyalty to under performing Offensive Coordinators. The second is his lack of salesmanship to increase the talent level of the team in the backdrop of unimpressive on the field performance. [I could add more, but your point, which I offer no dispute, is made. These traits are unfortunately ingrained it seems to me after the six going on seven seasons now.]

If NIL can bump up the talent level [In isolation, this may prove true for Cal, but the talent levels of other schools will also be improving.] and the team can win a couple to a few more games consistently for a couple years [Other than consistently having losing seasons under Wilcox, I don't see Cal demonstrating such consistency.] , then we can see Wilcox create a situation where his strengths of integrity and culture building can be better leveraged.[ Fine, but this isn't winning more games.]

He's got too big of a payout for us to cut ties and he's producing the best portal recruiting class of his tenure. [Yes, but there are plenty of other schools that can make the same claim. For instance, a popular sporting news service just released its top 15 2024 recruiting classes...of course, #7 usc and #9 oregon are ranked...but also...stanfurd with their new coach at #12!] If you are of the means to pay for his buyout by all means lobby the powers that be for the change you think is necessary. [I am not so I guess I'm in the same boat as you.]

If you don't and still want to focus on the team, doesn't it feel better to believe that with the combination of a well organized and thought out NIL effort, Wilcox's ability to produce a family-oriented culture where players feel valued and fairly treated, and what looks like an improved defense and better offensive scheme, can produce a season that we can feel good about? [Despite being of such means, I prefer to stay realistic. Fantasy just doesn't cut it for me when following Cal football news season after season under Wilcox.]

Go Bears!

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Rushinbear said:

---

evanluck said:

---

Blueblood said:

---

"It's amazing to me that many more of you BI fans
don't realize that Wilcox is a waste of time for Cal football!"

---

NIL is leveling the playing field. Wilcox has two character traits that have limited him so far. The first is his loyalty to under performing Offensive Coordinators. The second is his lack of salesmanship to increase the talent level of the team in the backdrop of unimpressive on the field performance.

If NIL can bump up the talent level and the team can win a couple to a few more games consistently for a couple years, then we can see Wilcox create a situation where his strengths of integrity and culture building can be better leveraged.

He's got too big of a payout for us to cut ties and he's producing the best portal recruiting class of his tenure. If you are of the means to pay for his buyout by all means lobby the powers that be for the change you think is necessary.

If you don't and still want to focus on the team, doesn't it feel better to believe that with the combination of a well organized and thought out NIL effort, Wilcox's ability to produce a family-oriented culture where players feel valued and fairly treated, and what looks like an improved defense and better offensive scheme, can produce a season that we can feel good about?

Go Bears!

---

If you fire JW before JK goes, you will get a JW clone in his place (no demands, no waves). It really comes down to Jake. Can he squeeze out 2 more wins and can he put up with JW's passivity?

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We (finally) fired Fox and got really lucky with Madsen. That said, because of the idiotic 6 year extension a year ago we are not getting a new football coach anytime soon, Knowlton or no Knowlton.

We are ride or die with Wilcox. We just have to hope Spavital produces an offense like he did under Dykes, and West Virginia, and not like he produced when he ran his own program, plus our defense returns to the levels when DeRuyter was here.

calumnus said:

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Rushinbear said:

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evanluck said:

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Blueblood said:

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"It's amazing to me that many more of you BI fans
don't realize that Wilcox is a waste of time for Cal football!"

---

---

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We (finally) fired Fox and got really lucky with Madsen. [My fingers are crossed,]That said, because of the idiotic 6 year extension a year ago we are not getting a new football coach anytime soon, Knowlton or no Knowlton. [Better be careful. Cal might win 8 or more games making Knowlton look like a genius.]

We are ride or die with Wilcox. [Hope you've picked your coffin out.] We just have to hope Spavital produces an offense like he did under Dykes, and West Virginia, and not like he produced when he ran his own program, plus our defense returns to the levels when DeRuyter was here. [Yes, if Cal has any football success, it's due to the assistants not the head coach.]

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