BearSD said:

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philbert said:

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Oregon AD is quoted in this article about the media deal.

https://theathletic.com/4710889/2023/07/21/pac-12-media-day-george-kliavkoff?source=user-shared-article

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The Oregon AD's quote is the same line that's been attributed to anonymous sources for the last 10 days or so, essentially, Looking good, lots of progress, new interested bidders, not worried about anyone jumping ship.

The interesting item in that article is that, contrary to what the media types have been speculating, expansion is not likely.

Quote:

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One reason SDSU has no clarity: Two league sources told The Athletic on Friday there's not unanimity among the presidents to expand at all. It would take an 8-2 vote, and at least two schools - one of them assumed to be Oregon - don't currently support it. The rationale being, they'd rather compete with fewer schools for the Pac-12's berth in the expanded College Football Playoff, not to mention sharing CFP revenue with fewer mouths.

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I would hope they have done the analysis.

My bet is San Doego State gets added after there are more defections.

calumnus said:

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BearSD said:

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philbert said:

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Oregon AD is quoted in this article about the media deal.

https://theathletic.com/4710889/2023/07/21/pac-12-media-day-george-kliavkoff?source=user-shared-article

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The Oregon AD's quote is the same line that's been attributed to anonymous sources for the last 10 days or so, essentially, Looking good, lots of progress, new interested bidders, not worried about anyone jumping ship.

The interesting item in that article is that, contrary to what the media types have been speculating, expansion is not likely.

Quote:

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One reason SDSU has no clarity: Two league sources told The Athletic on Friday there's not unanimity among the presidents to expand at all. It would take an 8-2 vote, and at least two schools - one of them assumed to be Oregon - don't currently support it. The rationale being, they'd rather compete with fewer schools for the Pac-12's berth in the expanded College Football Playoff, not to mention sharing CFP revenue with fewer mouths.

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I would hope they have done the analysis.

My bet is San Doego State gets added after there are more defections.

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I kinda hope UofA goes tonight b12 solo (along with say UConn), with ASU and CU staying. One less football game in hot azz arizona and that further gimps the b12 FB product in exchange for basketball. Let SDSU in then and roll with 10.

BearSD said:

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philbert said:

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Oregon AD is quoted in this article about the media deal.

https://theathletic.com/4710889/2023/07/21/pac-12-media-day-george-kliavkoff?source=user-shared-article

---

The Oregon AD's quote is the same line that's been attributed to anonymous sources for the last 10 days or so, essentially, Looking good, lots of progress, new interested bidders, not worried about anyone jumping ship.

The interesting item in that article is that, contrary to what the media types have been speculating, expansion is not likely.

Quote:

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One reason SDSU has no clarity: Two league sources told The Athletic on Friday there's not unanimity among the presidents to expand at all. It would take an 8-2 vote, and at least two schools - one of them assumed to be Oregon - don't currently support it. The rationale being, they'd rather compete with fewer schools for the Pac-12's berth in the expanded College Football Playoff, not to mention sharing CFP revenue with fewer mouths.

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I find it informative because if UO had misgivings about the deal, he'd likely be much more measured in his public statements.

linebiz said:

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golden sloth said:

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It would be great if you simply didn't make stuff up. Claiming UCLA and USC left because the Pac-10 added Colorado and Utah is completely wrong.

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Hi Golden Sloth, thanks for your reply.

The conference pay structure did change (unfavorably towards USC & UCLA after a vote of 10-2 against USC/UCLA) starting in 2011 with the addition of Utah and Colorado. I could expand on my statement for more support but I don't really feel like typing out something long to address that small point.

To be clear, I never claimed "UCLA and USC left because the Pac-10 added Colorado and Utah."

I will however amend my statement to say the following, since I'm too lazy to support it more:

"Ultimately, the league lost their two premier brands (USC & UCLA) after they added Utah and Colorado. Not a great trade, to say the least."

Adding Utah and Colorado was a total loser but if Larry Scott could've pulled off the first 16 team superconference like he hoped, that would've changed the course of history for our beloved Pac. It's a shame that ESPN bribed UT with the Longhorn Network.

I still hope Kliavkoff can cobble something together that can keep the league together. It will be really sad to see some of these really long running series end. We're talking like almost a hundred years in some cases. What a travesty.

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Looks like the trade got worse.

Like I was saying above, adding Utah and Colorado was a total loser move.

At the moment, it now stands at the Pac left with only Utah remaining from the trade to ultimately lose USC and UCLA.

Rumors are now that there is a non 4 corners school considering jumping to Big 12.

On the bright side, with only 6 PAC schools our chances of a conference championship are looking better.

Bear70 said:

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On the bright side, with only 6 PAC schools our chances of a conference championship are looking better.

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I really hope that the rumor about the non 4 corners school consider the Big 12 is about Cal jumping ship from this dying conference over to the Big 12.

It wouldn't be too bad if Cal jumped with a block of other Pac schools.

Bear70 said:

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On the bright side, with only 6 PAC schools our chances of a conference championship are looking better.

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That's the gloomy side, not the bright side.

To be an official conference for football, the conference has to have at least 8 full members who play football in the conference.

Even for basketball, a conference has to have at least 7 members to keep the automatic bid to NCAA tournaments.

BearSD said:

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Bear70 said:

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On the bright side, with only 6 PAC schools our chances of a conference championship are looking better.

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That's the gloomy side, not the bright side.

To be an official conference for football, the conference has to have at least 8 full members who play football in the conference.

Even for basketball, a conference has to have at least 7 members to keep the automatic bid to NCAA tournaments.

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Not to worry! We can get Davis, San Joser, Fresno, San Diego, maybe Cal Poly.
We can almost be the best football team in NorCal, possibly, don't get excited. On a good year we go 3-3 in California! Win.

BearSD said:

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Bear70 said:

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On the bright side, with only 6 PAC schools our chances of a conference championship are looking better.

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That's the gloomy side, not the bright side.

To be an official conference for football, the conference has to have at least 8 full members who play football in the conference.

Even for basketball, a conference has to have at least 7 members to keep the automatic bid to NCAA tournaments.

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Do you know the time frame on those requirements?

I thought I read somewhere that you have 2 years to get up to that number if you fall below but I don't know how credible that sounds.

Any Mountain West team that wants to join for 2024 will need to pay $34 million and I believe any AAC team needs to give 27 months notice.

If all 4 corners leave, is there a path to getting above the required numbers in time to keep the A5 title as well as the automatic bid you mention?

linebiz said:

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Bear70 said:

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On the bright side, with only 6 PAC schools our chances of a conference championship are looking better.

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I really hope that the rumor about the non 4 corners school consider the Big 12 is about Cal jumping ship from this dying conference over to the Big 12.

It wouldn't be too bad if Cal jumped with a block of other Pac schools.

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I doubt old Carol and Jim are even aware that Colorado is leaving yet. They seem to be always 5 years behind the times.

linebiz said:

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BearSD said:

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Bear70 said:

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On the bright side, with only 6 PAC schools our chances of a conference championship are looking better.

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That's the gloomy side, not the bright side.

To be an official conference for football, the conference has to have at least 8 full members who play football in the conference.

Even for basketball, a conference has to have at least 7 members to keep the automatic bid to NCAA tournaments.

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Do you know the time frame on those requirements?

I thought I read somewhere that you have 2 years to get up to that number if you fall below but I don't know how credible that sounds.

Any Mountain West team that wants to join for 2024 will need to pay $34 million and I believe any AAC team needs to give 27 months notice.

If all 4 corners leave, is there a path to getting above the required numbers in time to keep the A5 title as well as the automatic bid you mention?

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Yes, there is a two-year grace period if the membership falls below the minimums.

Also: There is no "A5" in the 12-team playoff that begins this season. The six highest-ranked conference champions get automatic bids. That is NOT "the champions of the six highest-ranked conferences", it's the six highest-ranked champs among the 10 teams who are conference champs. But a conference has to be an official conference for football in order for its champ to be considered for the one of the six bids that go to conference champs.

Econ141 said:

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linebiz said:

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Bear70 said:

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On the bright side, with only 6 PAC schools our chances of a conference championship are looking better.

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I really hope that the rumor about the non 4 corners school consider the Big 12 is about Cal jumping ship from this dying conference over to the Big 12.

It wouldn't be too bad if Cal jumped with a block of other Pac schools.

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I doubt old Carol and Jim are even aware that Colorado is leaving yet. They seem to be always 5 years behind the times.

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Yeah I hear you. Especially considering Carol is retiring soon.

It's really hard to watch what's happening. I've been a Cal fan since I was little.

And now I have to watch the greatest University in the world potentially get left behind in athletics.

Big 10 would be great but imo they're not looking to expand. And with every additional defection, the Pac media contract will get weaker and weaker.

BearSD said:

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linebiz said:

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BearSD said:

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Bear70 said:

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On the bright side, with only 6 PAC schools our chances of a conference championship are looking better.

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That's the gloomy side, not the bright side.

To be an official conference for football, the conference has to have at least 8 full members who play football in the conference.

Even for basketball, a conference has to have at least 7 members to keep the automatic bid to NCAA tournaments.

---

Do you know the time frame on those requirements?

I thought I read somewhere that you have 2 years to get up to that number if you fall below but I don't know how credible that sounds.

Any Mountain West team that wants to join for 2024 will need to pay $34 million and I believe any AAC team needs to give 27 months notice.

If all 4 corners leave, is there a path to getting above the required numbers in time to keep the A5 title as well as the automatic bid you mention?

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Yes, there is a two-year grace period if the membership falls below the minimums.

Also: There is no "A5" in the 12-team playoff that begins this season. The six highest-ranked conference champions get automatic bids. That is NOT "the champions of the six highest-ranked conferences", it's the six highest-ranked champs among the 10 teams who are conference champs. But a conference has to be an official conference for football in order for its champ to be considered for the one of the six bids that go to conference champs.

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Thanks for the explanation, BearSD.

I was actually thinking about the "Autonomous Five" conferences. TBH, I had only heard the term A5 before and didn't really know what it meant.

After googling, it looks like being an A5 conference means that you can enact your own league rules and other conferences are allowed to adopt those rules. At least that's what I got from quickly skimming. I wonder if that has any relevance anymore in the era of the 12 team playoffs.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ncaa-adopts-new-division-i-model-giving-power-5-autonomy/

This made me think of kinda terrible scenario. What if the other 3 corner schools followed Colorado to the Big 12 and OU/UW go to the B1G, or more likely, they also join the Big 12?

At that point there is Cal, Stanford, OSU and WSU left.

Since the Pac-12 has the better brand and they also have Autonomous 5 power, it would be better to backfill with MWC and AAC schools.

In this case, with only 4 teams left, would the Pac be able to negotiate a media contract without adding more teams first? Plus without a contract, where would the money come from to pay each of the MWC schools' $34 million exit fees? I'm also not sure if any of those G5 schools would risk joining the Pac without a media contract already in place.

Is it possible, or even probable, that in this scenario, the remaining Pac teams would be forced to join the MWC instead since the Pac will have no exit fees required to leave the Pac.

One benefit in joining the MWC is that they already have a media deal with significant linear distribution.

I'm guessing if this happens, that Stanford would choose to go independent rather than be in the same league as Fresno St, SDSU, Boise St, Wyoming and UNLV.

Would Cal choose to join the MWC or go independent? Or is there another conference where Cal would fit in better?

The Pac-9 has been Oregon's plan for the past 20 years starting with Tom Hansen. With the future expanded playoff of 12 teams, Oregon in a Pac-9 is virtually guaranteed a shiny playoff spot every year. Watch Willingham retire due to heart issues in the next couple of years. Nike paid off Petersen to leave coaching. Nike paid off Tedford to coach to mediocrity. Nike just paid UCLA (debt) and USC (moral distractions) to leave. Notice the slow trickling newsfeeds that some schools (Oregon, Washington) are looking forward to a smaller conference with a guarantee to the playoff. Why would Oregon voluntarily choose the possibility of losing a few games per season when they can dominate the Pac the way Barca/Real dominate La Liga or Bayern Munich dominates the Bundesliga with a premier streaming and linear broadcast? Athleti, Cadiz, or Eintracht Frankfurt can finish near the top, but it is not likely. Combined with a higher revenue share and selfish playoff windfall, Oregon and Washington are set. Linear television is dead to this upcoming generation in the next five to ten years (most kids today do not give a rats-ass about college football; they would rather play Roblox or Zelda on Switch rather than watch a game on a tv on ESPN; and yes, there are three elements, "a game," "on tv," "on ESPN." That behavior 10 years from now will be oldie boring ****). The expected revenue payout will not come to fruition as the providers already overpaid for future content and hence the reason for "alternative" programming options for the new Pac-9 contract. Watch what happens when the market plummets in 2026. Georgie is a shill, a dope, a lame Knight puppet.

DaveLibbey said:

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The Pac-9 has been Oregon's plan for the past 20 years starting with Tom Hansen. With the future expanded playoff of 12 teams, Oregon in a Pac-9 is virtually guaranteed a shiny playoff spot every year. Watch Willingham retire due to heart issues in the next couple of years. Nike paid off Petersen to leave coaching. Nike paid off Tedford to coach to mediocrity. Nike just paid UCLA (debt) and USC (moral distractions) to leave. Notice the slow trickling newsfeeds that some schools (Oregon, Washington) are looking forward to a smaller conference with a guarantee to the playoff. Why would Oregon voluntarily choose the possibility of losing a few games per season when they can dominate the Pac the way Barca/Real dominate La Liga or Bayern Munich dominates the Bundesliga with a premier streaming and linear broadcast? Athleti, Cadiz, or Eintracht Frankfurt can finish near the top, but it is not likely. Combined with a higher revenue share and selfish playoff windfall, Oregon and Washington are set. Linear television is dead to this upcoming generation in the next five to ten years (most kids today do not give a rats-ass about college football; they would rather play Roblox or Zelda on Switch rather than watch a game on a tv on ESPN; and yes, there are three elements, "a game," "on tv," "on ESPN." That behavior 10 years from now will be oldie boring ****). The expected revenue payout will not come to fruition as the providers already overpaid for future content and hence the reason for "alternative" programming options for the new Pac-9 contract. Watch what happens when the market plummets in 2026. Georgie is a shill, a dope, a lame Knight puppet.

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Any update on this?!

linebiz said:

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This made me think of kinda terrible scenario. What if the other 3 corner schools followed Colorado to the Big 12 and OU/UW go to the B1G, or more likely, they also join the Big 12?

At that point there is Cal, Stanford, OSU and WSU left.

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You have my attention Calstradamus.

linebiz said:

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Since the Pac-12 has the better brand and they also have Autonomous 5 power, it would be better to backfill with MWC and AAC schools.

In this case, with only 4 teams left, would the Pac be able to negotiate a media contract without adding more teams first? Plus without a contract, where would the money come from to pay each of the MWC schools' $34 million exit fees? I'm also not sure if any of those G5 schools would risk joining the Pac without a media contract already in place.

Is it possible, or even probable, that in this scenario, the remaining Pac teams would be forced to join the MWC instead since the Pac will have no exit fees required to leave the Pac.

One benefit in joining the MWC is that they already have a media deal with significant linear distribution.

I'm guessing if this happens, that Stanford would choose to go independent rather than be in the same league as Fresno St, SDSU, Boise St, Wyoming and UNLV.

Would Cal choose to join the MWC or go independent? Or is there another conference where Cal would fit in better?

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Any new thoughts?