Here is the most succinct summary I can do of everything that has happened:
1. Fox wanted USC to join the B1G and USC wanted to leave to chase money and football playoff glory. They brought UCLA as their tag along.
2. The market for media rights turned south over the last two years, and with the biggest media market off the table for the Pac-12, the media deal looked bad. Surely, exacerbated by the P12 commissioner.
3. When the numbers came in, Colorado left for the Big-XII which had a clause in their TV contract that allowed the conference to receive a full share from the networks per P5 school added up to four.
4. The now Pac-9 went back to the networks and had a deal in place that was not great, but passable.
5. Fox & the Big Ten stepped in at the last moment to poach Washington and Oregon, who agreed to reduced shares for several years.
6. Arizona, Arizona st, and Utah then knew the remnants of the Pac-12 were going to receive a terrible deal and left to fill the final 3 full-share spots in the Big-XII.
7. The B1G schools apparently desired Cal and Stanford but Fox would not provide any additional money, and although the schools wanted to add them, they were not willing to accept less money to do so. (That is why there is no B1G invite).
8. With the SEC not expanding, and the networks out of money for the additional schools in the B1G and Big-XII, the options were join the ACC, add a bunch of mid-majors to the Pac, join a mid major, or go independent. Only the ACC offered the sort of money that would prevent a sports apocalypse at Cal and Stanford.
9. ESPN and ND pushed to add the schools to the ACC, while FSU, UNC and Clemson tried to use expansion as a way to destroy the conference so they can join the B1G or SEC without paying an exit fee.
10. NCST realized that Cal, Stanford, and SMU provides resiliency in case the FSU, UNC, and Clemson leave and switched their vote.
That said, I think everyone believes the ACC will still collapse with the most valued schools moving to the B1G and SEC, so yes, we will be in this spot again in a few years. A lot speculate this will align with the B1G's next media contract at the end of the decade.
My personal speculation is that the B1G still wants a 24 team conference, with 4 pods of 6 in each region, and they desire ND most, with three ACC schools joining Penn st, Rutgers and Maryland in an Atlantic pod. That may open the door for Cal/Stanford to complete the west coast pod, but we'd be the last ones in, and there is competition with some other contenders.
I believe the SEC will follow suit in picking up the other best ACC properties, and have between 20 and 24 schools. These two conferences will dominate the media and money and become a semi-pro league, and college football will devolve into the following tiers: the Power 2 conferences of the B1G and SEC, 2 quasi-power conferences of Big-XIi and ACC, and everyone else.
At the end of the day, the B1G and the SEC are the only two conferences with long-term viability, and although we received a temporary stay of execution, in the ACC, we need to still do everything we can to get into the B1G.
