Based on the AP poll here is a comparison between the top 5 ranked, only remaining unbeaten P5, teams based on performance against ranked teams, coaches poll in parentheses, best among the 5 in bold and italics. If tied for best, only in bold.

Ohio St. --

• Road wins--#22 Notre Dame
• Home wins --#9 Penn St.
• 2 wins against ranked team
• 1 win against top 10 team

Georgia --

• Road wins--0
• Home wins --#16 (#15) Missouri
• 1 win against ranked team
• 0 wins against top 10 team

Michigan --

• Road wins --0
• Home wins --0
• 0 wins against ranked teams

Florida St. --

• Road wins --0
• Home wins --#18 (#19) LSU
• 1 win against ranked team
• 0 wins against team 10 ranked team

Washington --

• Road wins -- #23 (#24) Arizona
• Home wins --#6 Oregon
• 2 wins against ranked teams
• 1 win against top 10 team

From what I can tell, Washington has a resume equal to Ohio St. and, technically, one ranking better (#30 vs. #31) in combined ranked victories. I am okay with Georgia getting the benefit of the doubt since they are the defending national champions with a long win streak. But Florida St. and especially Michigan should not be ahead of Washington. You might say that Michigan has an elite defense and shouldn't be punished for not playing anybody, but what about Florida St? Washington should be ahead of them. I know Florida St. defeated then ranked Duke and also Clemson on the road. But Duke has proven to not be so good after barely beating Wake Forest at home and it took them OT to defeat a Clemson team that is unranked and has been for some time. Meanwhile Washington went on the road and beat a USC team that is now unranked but certainly better than Duke and will probably be ranked at the end of the year.

To state the obvious, the difference between #4 and #5 in the playoff rankings is a big deal.

It's the same old tired story, pac-12 getting slammed, and this is why it folded, which has not helped anyone.
I guess we should all be thrilled that at least Arizona got recognized since they certainly deserve it.

I'd rank Washington third behind Ohio State and Georgia. I have no idea how Michigan is consistently ranked higher that any of the unbeatens given its very weak schedule. Florida St has not looked dominant in most of its wins. Washington did have poor games against Stanford and Arizona St when Penix was injured and sick (he had the flu, which was obvious in the Stanford after game conference).

Let me add that each team, except Florida St., will have challenges moving forward but also can enhance their resume.

OHIO ST.

• @ Michigan 11/25 9 am on FOX(Saturday following Thanksgiving -tune in for this one)

GEORGIA

• vs. #10 Ole Miss next Saturday @ 1 on ESPN
• @ ranked Tennessee (unclear where they will be ranked) 11/18

MICHIGAN

• @ #9 Penn St. Saturday 9 am on FOX
• vs. Ohio St. --see above

WASHINGTON

• vs #13 (#14) Utah Saturday 12:30 pm FOX
• @ ranked Oregon St. 11/18 --it's unclear where OSU will be ranked but they are now #12 (#13) and only play Furd at home before this game. Assuming they win, they could be ranked in the top 10 but probably not higher than #11

I don't see Ohio St. dropping out of the top 4, even if they lose to Michigan. However, Michigan would drop out if they lose to both Penn St. and Ohio St. and every one else wins. I don't think Georgia loses to Ole Miss at home but the road game against Tennessee the following week will be interesting. Tennessee is ranked about the same as Missouri, which gave Georgia a game even though Georgia was at home. It will be the stiffest test for Georgia during the regular season and they almost lost to Auburn on the road earlier. We all know that Auburn has no offense. But the playoff committee will be reluctant to formulate a top 4 with no SEC team in it. So who knows.

I think it is pretty clear that, with 2 more games against ranked opponents, a road game against a team that may be in the top 10, and a conference championship game that is likely to involve Oregon again, who may be also in the top 10, Washington winning out will mean that they will overtake Florida St. winning out, even with Florida St. winning their conference championship game against (Louisville-AKA Jake Plummer?). We will be routing for Jake Plummer once again in that one if we want the pac-12 to get a playoff shot in the long run.

What is frustrating is that, if Washington gets one loss, say against Oregon St., but still wins the conference with 2 wins against Oregon, they still may not get the top 4 above Florida St., who is likely to go undefeated the rest of the way since they don't really play anybody other than ranked Louisville.

All of this is a long way of saying, route for Penn St. this Saturday if you want to see the pac-12 make the playoffs. It will go a long way to helping both Oregon and Washington possibly make the playoffs. Oregon could win out, including winning conference and have a pretty good resume.

EDIT: KO times corrected to west coast times.

wc22 said:

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I'd rank Washington third behind Ohio State and Georgia. I have no idea how Michigan is consistently ranked higher that any of the unbeatens given its very weak schedule. Florida St has not looked dominant in most of its wins. Washington did have poor games against Stanford and Arizona St when Penix was injured and sick (he had the flu, which was obvious in the Stanford after game conference).

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Yeah, I totally agree. I did a bit more analysis on this that might interest you in terms of the outlook moving forward. Penix is big time and I hope he gets the heisman. He seems like a cool dude too. Whichever NFL team gets him will have an immediate turnaround.

Won't matter in 3 weeks when they are in the PAC-12 Championship and then it's fait accompli.

May have to do with the fact that they should have lost to Stanford and ASU (at home), and looked abysmal...They will lose at least two more. In Corvallis and likely against Ducks in PAC-12 title game. But yeah bs that Michigan gets such a pass.

Strykur said:

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Won't matter in 3 weeks when they are in the PAC-12 Championship and then it's fait accompli.

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Do you mean that the wrong team will win for the pac-12 playoff hopes?
How do you know that?

That has happened in the past because Utah is the great spoiler.
But I don't think Utah is going to be in it this time.
They would have to beat Washington this weekend, which is another good one. But Utah is not so great on the road and they just got blown out by Oregon at home.

The way I see it, Washington goes 8-1, losing only to OSU in Corvallis
Oregon wins out, also going 8-1
Utah goes 5-4, with losses to the 2 Oregon schools, Arizona and Washington
Oregon St. goes 6-3 with losses to Oregon, Arizona and WSU
USC goes 6-3 with losses to Washington, Utah and Oregon
Arizona wins out, going 7-2 with losses to USC and Washington
UCLA goes 5-4 with losses to Utah, Oregon St., Arizona and USC

So now it's a rematch between highly ranked Washington and highly ranked Oregon. Doesn't the winner, no matter who it is, have a pretty good resume? If Oregon wins, they have one loss to top 10 Washington and wins against Washington, Utah and Oregon St. If Washington wins they have one loss to ranked OSU and 2 wins against highly ranked Oregon and ranked Arizona. Plus both will have beaten USC.

That should be competitive against any other 1 loss team. But, if the other 4 remaining unbeaten teams win out with the exception of one loss to either Michigan by Ohio St. or vice versa, it probably won't happen.

Point is, there is no WRONG team winning if it is Oregon and Washington unless Washington comes in undefeated, which might happen should they get out of Corvallis with a win. I'm not pencilling that in yet.

Beaverdreams2 said:

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May have to do with the fact that they should have lost to Stanford and ASU (at home), and looked abysmal...They will lose at least two more. In Corvallis and likely against Ducks in PAC-12 title game. But yeah bs that Michigan gets such a pass.

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Penix had the flue for those 2 games and Georgia looked pretty bad against Auburn and S. Carolina as did Florida St. against Clemson and Boston College. I think you are right that they may lose those games but I wouldn't be so confident that they will lose both. And the rankings shouldn't be based on what is likely to happen later.

heartofthebear said:

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Beaverdreams2 said:

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May have to do with the fact that they should have lost to Stanford and ASU (at home), and looked abysmal...They will lose at least two more. In Corvallis and likely against Ducks in PAC-12 title game. But yeah bs that Michigan gets such a pass.

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Penix had the flue for those 2 games and Georgia looked pretty bad against Auburn and S. Carolina as did Florida St. against Clemson and Boston College. I think you are right that they may lose those games but I wouldn't be so confident that they will lose both. And the rankings shouldn't be based on what is likely to happen later.

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Washington has had a few close calls but they have played well in the games that matter, they will be undefeated when they go to Vegas.

The PAC teams the past decade never get the benefit of the doubt and losses within conference have always hurt ranking more than parallel losses by teams in other P5 conferences. If teo highly ranked SEC teams play it's considered a good win/loss for both teams.

blungld said:

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The PAC teams the past decade never get the benefit of the doubt and losses within conference have always hurt ranking more than parallel losses by teams in other P5 conferences. If teo highly ranked SEC teams play it's considered a good win/loss for both teams.

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More than the past decade. In 2004 our only loss was a narrow loss on the road at #1 undefeated USC. Sagarin Had us ranked #1 in Predictor, but some voters did not include us in their top 10.

The problem Washington has it seems the pollsters think Oregon is the better team but you can't justify putting them over Washington.

It also doesn't matter because Washington controls their destiny to make the playoffs.

blungld said:

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The PAC teams the past decade never get the benefit of the doubt and losses within conference have always hurt ranking more than parallel losses by teams in other P5 conferences. If teo highly ranked SEC teams play it's considered a good win/loss for both teams.

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You nailed it. Georgia plays Ole Miss this weekend and Ole Miss is marginally ahead of Oregon St. in the rankings. I am willing to bet that Ole Miss will not drop below OSU even with a loss. In fact I don't think they will drop more than 1 slot, from 10 to 11. Meanwhile OSU can blow out Furd and might actually lose ground.

College football is politics and that destroyed the pac-12 as much as anything.