calumnus said:
wifeisafurd said:
calumnus said:
GOLDEN said:
So it looks like someone finally sat down and got real about the situation. This whole rebuild a new pac conference was a pipe dream in the first year. A much more realistic path and the MWC holds more of the cards than OSU or WSU is what it looks like. Good for the MWC now in a position of strength.
This was the PAC-2 plan all along. They can exist as the PAC-2 for two years before they need to add. They needed a schedule for 2024 and 2025. The MWC agreed to provide that in exchange for an agreement to merge as the PAC-16 when the two years are up and the MWC's media deal is up.
What remains to be seen is how much of P5 status can be maintained, what kind of money the Pac-2 can get out of the existing PAC contracts over the next two years (expect a lot of litigation) and what kind of two year media deal the PAC-2 can get. I don't think it would be a stretch for them to equal or better our net ($10 million?) from the ACC.
Of course the other big variable is what key players like Jonathan Smith and WSU AD Pat Chun decide to do if they get a P5 offer and what happens when the portal opens.
Litigation takes time. Time is not on the Pac 2's side. Other complication is the MWC media deal lasts 6 years. I think the end up with $4 million annually from the MWC, have their teams decimated by the Portal and have to cut non-revenue teams. They got screwed. Or they try and get a Calford deal with the Big 12 starting 2026, but in the interim they absorb huge losses.
The last year of the current MWC media deal is 2025. That coincides exactly with the two years the PAC-2 can operate as the PAC-2. The PAC-16 will negotiate a unified deal for 2026.
The PAC-2 needs a two-year deal. If they sell their rights for a total of $20 million ($10 million each) they will match Calford in the ACC, right?
It would be a big surprise if OSU and WSU each get $10 million/year for TV rights. (If they did, it would get their "conference revenue" close to the Cal/Stanford take of ACC revenue for the first 7 years.)
When BYU played an independent football schedule, they were reportedly getting about $6 million/year from ESPN, for a schedule that is similar to what OSU and WSU hope to have (home games including one "power conference" opponent and MWC opponents for most of the rest). IMO that is the ceiling for what OSU and WSU should budget or expect.
Let's be optimistic for them, and say they do get $6 million each for TV rights. What about the rest?
--For each of the next two years, the Pac-2 will have about $6 million, or about $3 million each, in March Madness revenue, assuming the NCAA doesn't split the money 12 ways and rule that the Pac has been effectively dissolved.
--I will make a realistic guess that the Pac-2 doesn't collect 100 percent of the Pac's contracted Rose Bowl/CFP payment for the next two years (which is $80 million/year) and that the Pac-2 reaches a settlement on that contract with each team getting $10 million/year. That's a fairly generous settlement, and they might get less, but we'll say $10 million for now.
-- And we're assuming that none of the next two years of Pac-12 revenue has to be used to cover remaining Pac-12 debts instead of going to OSU and WSU.
That's $19 million each, per year, in total "conference" revenue for each, based on optimistic assumptions about each revenue source.
IIRC, Cal and Stanford are taking a 30% share of the top-level ACC TV payment for the next 7 years, plus a full share of all other conference revenue, which will total about $23 million/year per school. And, of course, the big difference is that even if OSU/WSU each get up to $19 million per year for the next two years, their revenue will fall off a cliff after that, unless they are invited to join the Big 12.
