Some Context on the Cal Defensive Performance of the Past Two Years

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PtownBear1
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10:16a, 2/19/24
It appears by now that Wilcox isn't going to make any changes to the defensive staff despite 2+ years of very poor results. With the amount of money at stake these days, I figured this has to be an outlier as I can't imagine any other school/AD would find this acceptable.

So I took the defensive rankings from Cfbstats for the past few years and put them into Excel. These rankings are by yards per game, but the results are fairly similar if looking at other stats like yards per play. Then I ran a Compare to highlight which schools were ranked below 100th in both 2023 and 2022 and/or in both 2022 and 2021. FYI Cal was ranked 105th in 2023, 111th in 2022, and 48th in 2021.

Next, I Googled each school that was ranked below 100 in consecutive years to see when they last replaced their DC. There weren't that many - only about a dozen each of the two years.

The result - I found 4 schools that didn't make a change at DC under this criteria: Cal, Vanderbilt, Louisiana Monroe, and Florida International. And Vanderbilt finally made a change after this season, but they fit the criteria from 2021 to 2022.
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UrsineMaximus
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10:51a, 2/19/24
Brian Kelly (LSU coach) went 11 - 3 this past season to include a win in their bowl game against Whiskey. It was a damn good bowl game, which I attended.

Within 48 hours of the bowl game, Kelly fired the entire defensive staff! LSU did not have a good defense albeit the overall record would please any Cal fan. Expectations are higher at LSU.

Sticking to the point, if your defense sucks make changes. Wilcox wt* are you waiting for. He is adamant on hiring friends and being loyal to what amounts to failure.
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calumnus
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In reply to UrsineMaximus • 1:59p, 2/19/24
UrsineMaximus said:
Brian Kelly (LSU coach) went 11 - 3 this past season to include a win in their bowl game against Whiskey. It was a damn good bowl game, which I attended.

Within 48 hours of the bowl game, Kelly fired the entire defensive staff! LSU did not have a good defense albeit the overall record would please any Cal fan. Expectations are higher at LSU.

Sticking to the point, if your defense sucks make changes. Wilcox wt* are you waiting for. He is adamant on hiring friends and being loyal to what amounts to failure.


After the bowl game I am worried about the offensive staff again too.
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DWM81
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4:36p, 2/19/24
Of all the potential Staff questions what concerns me most is the selection of Sterlin Gilbert as QB/Passing Game Coordinator. Bloesch's promotion to OC happened in early Dec. The Program had a lot of options. Bloesch retaining OL duties means he needs a strong Passing Game Coordinator. I thought better options were available...
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calumnus
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In reply to DWM81 • 1:09a, 2/20/24
DWM81 said:
Of all the potential Staff questions what concerns me most is the selection of Sterlin Gilbert as QB/Passing Game Coordinator. Bloesch's promotion to OC happened in early Dec. The Program had a lot of options. Bloesch retaining OL duties means he needs a strong Passing Game Coordinator. I thought better options were available...


Agreed. Bloesch/Sterlin seems typical of Wilcox as his offensive decision and it is disappointing he doesn't seem to have figured it out by year 8. The opposite of innovative. Could be good for Ott though. And we can always hope they surprise. The bowl game was not good, seemed like he could have waited until after to make Bloesch permanent OC. We'll have to keep our fingers crossed.
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Lets Go!
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In reply to PtownBear1 • 7:33a, 2/20/24
Let's hope one of these guys helps the defense who are transfers. Marcus (Idaho), Aidan (Notre Dame), Teddye (UC Davis).
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UrsineMaximus
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In reply to DWM81 • 8:09a, 2/20/24
DWM81 said:
Of all the potential Staff questions what concerns me most is the selection of Sterlin Gilbert as QB/Passing Game Coordinator. Bloesch's promotion to OC happened in early Dec. The Program had a lot of options. Bloesch retaining OL duties means he needs a strong Passing Game Coordinator. I thought better options were available...
Bloesch and Gilbert are ole buddies that go way back, i.e. more nepotism on Cal's staff. That said, I'll wait and see. If Nando gets a lot better it's a good hire. Seems so risky to me and not sure why Wilcox hasn't figured this out yet.
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Econ141
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In reply to UrsineMaximus • 10:40a, 2/20/24
UrsineMaximus said:
DWM81 said:
Of all the potential Staff questions what concerns me most is the selection of Sterlin Gilbert as QB/Passing Game Coordinator. Bloesch's promotion to OC happened in early Dec. The Program had a lot of options. Bloesch retaining OL duties means he needs a strong Passing Game Coordinator. I thought better options were available...
Bloesch and Gilbert are ole buddies that go way back, i.e. more nepotism on Cal's staff. That said, I'll wait and see. If Nando gets a lot better it's a good hire. Seems so risky to me and not sure why Wilcox hasn't figured this out yet.


Wilcox seems to just hand the keys over to the OC. This nepotism cr@p is going to keep biting us in the butt. The long extension for Wilcox gives him no sense of urgency while Cal football is in state of emergency. We needed someone that could make bold decisions to help us get to where we need to be, faster. Instead, we got a mouse just collecting paychecks.
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Econ141
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10:47a, 2/20/24
How does one get hired after a coaching career like this? Only at Cal and only with Wilcox.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sterlin_Gilbert

Give to Cal Legends!

https://calegends.com/donation/ Do it now. Text every Cal fan you know, give them the link, tell them how much you gave, and ask them to text every Cal fan they know and do the same.
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calumnus
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In reply to Econ141 • 1:33p, 2/20/24
Econ141 said:
How does one get hired after a coaching career like this? Only at Cal and only with Wilcox.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sterlin_Gilbert



People are always enthusiastic about him when hired then fire him a year (or sometimes two) later. Rinse and repeat. If he was really good you have to believe he would have a different career trajectory. The Peter Principle and Texas Good Ole Boy Network at work? Hopefully they surprise us.
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wc22
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In reply to Econ141 • 2:56p, 2/20/24
Econ141 said:
How does one get hired after a coaching career like this? Only at Cal and only with Wilcox.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sterlin_Gilbert

He got constant promotions through 2016 when he got a prime OC position at Texas. Then when Charlie Strong got fired, he followed Charlie Strong to South Florida. He left South Florida for a FCS HC job (probably to avoid being fired, but Charlie was gone a year later) and did an average HC job. Then got hired to be the OC at Syracuse. He was fired from Syracuse, getting back into coaching as an OA (which many former coordinators and head coaches do). He is the QB Coach not OC here. He doesn't have that bad of a coaching history.
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91Cal
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In reply to wc22 • 4:25p, 2/20/24
wc22 said:
Econ141 said:
How does one get hired after a coaching career like this? Only at Cal and only with Wilcox.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sterlin_Gilbert

He got constant promotions through 2016 when he got a prime OC position at Texas. Then when Charlie Strong got fired, he followed Charlie Strong to South Florida. He left South Florida for a FCS HC job (probably to avoid being fired, but Charlie was gone a year later) and did an average HC job. Then got hired to be the OC at Syracuse. He was fired from Syracuse, getting back into coaching as an OA (which many former coordinators and head coaches do). He is the QB Coach not OC here. He doesn't have that bad of a coaching history.
At co-OC/QB for Tulsa in 2015, his QB had a 151 rating for the year and the offense averaged 507 ypg - 333 passing and 174 rushing - and 37.2 points per game, including 38 @ Oklahoma and 52 v. VaTech in the Independence Bowl. No wonder he was hired by Strong to salvage his program.

Even though Strong's program was seriously wobbling, they still averaged 31.9 ppg, including 50 v. Notre Dame and 43 @ Cal in Sonny's final year!

HIs first year with Strong at USF was spectacular with 38+ ppg, but the offense dropped significantly the year after with much worse QB performance and only got worse after he left in 2019.

Looks like the wheels completely fell off the bus in Syracuse under Babers, who was the play caller and who then threw Gilbert under the bus and had only one winning season thereafter...only two overall in upstate NY.

There must be a backstory as to why he exited coaching for a couple of years, but his record was decent if not above average even through his stint with Strong.
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calumnus
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In reply to 91Cal • 5:06p, 2/20/24
91Cal said:
wc22 said:
Econ141 said:
How does one get hired after a coaching career like this? Only at Cal and only with Wilcox.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sterlin_Gilbert

He got constant promotions through 2016 when he got a prime OC position at Texas. Then when Charlie Strong got fired, he followed Charlie Strong to South Florida. He left South Florida for a FCS HC job (probably to avoid being fired, but Charlie was gone a year later) and did an average HC job. Then got hired to be the OC at Syracuse. He was fired from Syracuse, getting back into coaching as an OA (which many former coordinators and head coaches do). He is the QB Coach not OC here. He doesn't have that bad of a coaching history.
At co-OC/QB for Tulsa in 2015, his QB had a 151 rating for the year and the offense averaged 507 ypg - 333 passing and 174 rushing - and 37.2 points per game, including 38 @ Oklahoma and 52 v. VaTech in the Independence Bowl. No wonder he was hired by Strong to salvage his program.

Even though Strong's program was seriously wobbling, they still averaged 31.9 ppg, including 50 v. Notre Dame and 43 @ Cal in Sonny's final year!

HIs first year with Strong at USF was spectacular with 38+ ppg, but the offense dropped significantly the year after with much worse QB performance and only got worse after he left in 2019.

Looks like the wheels completely fell off the bus in Syracuse under Babers, who was the play caller and who then threw Gilbert under the bus and had only one winning season thereafter...only two overall in upstate NY.

There must be a backstory as to why he exited coaching for a couple of years, but his record was decent if not above average even through his stint with Strong.


I thought this was interesting

https://dailyorange.com/2021/11/sterlin-gilbert-out-as-syracuse-offensive-coordinator/

My guess is Bloesch/Gilbert will emphasize a lot of Ott and that Rodgers will have a good shot at starting.
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PtownBear1
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In reply to Lets Go! • 10:31a, 2/21/24
Lets Go! said:
Let's hope one of these guys helps the defense who are transfers. Marcus (Idaho), Aidan (Notre Dame), Teddye (UC Davis).
Not sure about Aidan as Dline is hard to predict, but I'd be surprised if both Marcus and Teddye aren't impact players by mid-year. The issue hasn't been individual performers though. We've had some good defensive players the last couple of years while the defense has been horrid. The problems IMO are the scheme sucks, the adjustments are poor, the coverages are predictable, the blitzes are ill-timed and ineffective, and the players rarely develop except at LB.
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MilleniaBear
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In reply to UrsineMaximus • 10:32a, 2/21/24
Football is one area where nepotism is good IF you have the right "family". Having assistant coaches all looking out for #1 sucks (see Tosh Lupoi). They have to be on the same page as the HC or it all falls apart.
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PtownBear1
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In reply to MilleniaBear • 10:39a, 2/21/24
MilleniaBear said:
Football is one area where nepotism is good IF you have the right "family". Having assistant coaches all looking out for #1 sucks (see Tosh Lupoi). They have to be on the same page as the HC or it all falls apart.
Agree. However, the issue hasn't been nepotism itself, but rather failing to hold your family/buddies accountable. I wish I could get a job that pays 1/10th of what Wilcox makes, hire my friends, and never bother to replace any of them regardless of how poorly we perform.
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HearstMining
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1:04p, 2/21/24
Here's a little background supporting the original post:
Cal's Team Defense Pac-12 Ranking:
  • 2019 - #4 (DeRuyter still here)
  • 2020 - #5 (limited data due to COVID - probably throw this year out)
  • 2021 - #2
  • 2022 - #6
  • 2023 - #9

What's the old saying . . . two points determines a line, three points determines a trend.
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JeffMcd
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1:16p, 2/21/24
Does anyone know where the total salary dollars available for the Cal coaching staff rank relative to the rest of the (RIP) PAC-12? Does the University / the AD fund Cal football coaching compensation equal to PAC-12 peers, on an aggregate basis, or at a significantly lower level?

Maybe Wilcox has fewer dollars to work with….

Curious as to the relative resources Wilcox has to work with.
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Big C
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In reply to PtownBear1 • 1:19p, 2/21/24
PtownBear1 said:
MilleniaBear said:
Football is one area where nepotism is good IF you have the right "family". Having assistant coaches all looking out for #1 sucks (see Tosh Lupoi). They have to be on the same page as the HC or it all falls apart.
Agree. However, the issue hasn't been nepotism itself, but rather failing to hold your family/buddies accountable. I wish I could get a job that pays 1/10th of what Wilcox makes, hire my friends, and never bother to replace any of them regardless of how poorly we perform.

That was always sort of my dream job, too! Never landed it, unfortunately...
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calumnus
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In reply to Big C • 1:45p, 2/21/24
Big C said:
PtownBear1 said:
MilleniaBear said:
Football is one area where nepotism is good IF you have the right "family". Having assistant coaches all looking out for #1 sucks (see Tosh Lupoi). They have to be on the same page as the HC or it all falls apart.
Agree. However, the issue hasn't been nepotism itself, but rather failing to hold your family/buddies accountable. I wish I could get a job that pays 1/10th of what Wilcox makes, hire my friends, and never bother to replace any of them regardless of how poorly we perform.

That was always sort of my dream job, too! Never landed it, unfortunately...


Yeah, 10% of Wilcox is $500,000 a year, which is really good money in the real world.
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