Phil Steele ACC season final standings prediction

9,314 Views | 44 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by ducktilldeath
calumnus
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BearSD said:

GoCal80 said:

Cal will travel the furthest of any ACC team this season
Either Cal or Stanford will travel the furthest of any ACC team every season. The conference schedule is designed so that the Bears and Cardinal each play three conference games in the eastern time zone every year.

The Bears "win" that distinction this year because of the nonconference game at Auburn. Stanford will "win" it next year because the Cardinal will play at Hawaii in 2025.


UCLA travels further than Cal this year.
sycasey
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BearSD said:

GoCal80 said:

Cal will travel the furthest of any ACC team this season
Either Cal or Stanford will travel the furthest of any ACC team every season. The conference schedule is designed so that the Bears and Cardinal each play three conference games in the eastern time zone every year.

The Bears "win" that distinction this year because of the nonconference game at Auburn. Stanford will "win" it next year because the Cardinal will play at Hawaii in 2025.

Yeah, and this is why the people complaining about us replacing our future Florida games with UCLA are missing the point.
Strykur
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BearSD said:

calumnus said:

Not sure how road games at Pitt and Wake figure into that
IMO there is a lot of pressure on Wilcox and staff for those two games in particular. Those are measuring sticks for the Bears' place in the ACC football pecking order. Have to win at least one, even though both are road games, because those are middle of the pack teams at best. Lose both of those games, and the conclusion will be that being consistently good in the ACC requires a different coaching staff.

(Sure, going 9-3 or 8-4 while losing those two games wouldn't imperil the coaching staff, but realistically a team that loses both those games isn't going to have a W-L record that good.)
Those teams did play for the ACC Championship in 2021 but since then have nosedived, dropping games to 3-4 win squads will be the end of Wilcox if that happens in 2024.
jy1988
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A win and a close loss wouldn't be a disaster. 8-4 with a bowl game is acceptable to me.
95bears
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Touching on a couple of comments here... a couple of folks that know FB coaching have been to multiple SMU practices last Spring and say they are legit.

They have leveled up on both sides with quality transfers from several good P5 programs---- Miami, OU, Utah, Oregon, aTm, Georgia, and Arkansas. This game will not be easy unless they are depleted. They're going to be coming off an easy game with Virginia. We'll be coming off Big Game.

ducktilldeath
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Bearly Clad said:

StillNoStanfurdium said:

calbear80 said:

Our schedule will not be easy. For the ACC Conference games, we will be playing two out of the three teams picked to be tied to be for the first place and two out of the three teams picked to be tied for the fourth place. That is four out of the top six teams in the ACC. For non-conference games, we will be playing Auburn on the road and SDSU at home will not be easy. It is looking like another 6-6 season (or, maybe 7-5 season, if we are lucky or 5-7 season if we are unlucky). Hopefully, we will qualify for a bowl game.

Go Bears!
I know SDSU has been good in the past, but this year they're projected to finish 8th in the MWC with no pre-season all-conference honors (only the 3rd time in MW history that happened) and last year they finished tied for last in conference last year at 2-6 (4-8 overall). And while they got Sean Lewis (former Colorado OC) as the new HC an immediate turnaround seems unlikely.

If SDSU at home won't be easy we have far bigger problems with our ACC opponents and I'd say 6-6 and 7-a5 would be at risk.
If we don't hit 8 or 9 wins minimum then it's a huge red flag and Wilcox is probably out at the end of the season with his buyout now at a reasonable level plus '25 is the perfect easy schedule to give to a first year coach and build momentum. But just looking at the schedule there's no excuses:

Noncon:
UC Davis
SDSU
@ Auburn
OSU

3-1 is the expectation there or there's a major issue. We should've gotten Auburn last year but now they're one of the most improved teams in the country, at home, and in the 2nd year with their coach. OSU has been a thorn in our sides but realignment killed them, they lost most of their recruits, coaching staff, starting QB, star RB, and a slew of other players, if we don't beat them at home we need to take a long, hard look in the mirror. SDSU is another team who's ran a solid program recently but when that PAC invite didn't come the wheels fell off, they're a middling (at best) G6 team right now and we should have no issue with them.

Home:
Miami
NC State
Syracuse
Stanford

I think this should be 3-1 as well but let's call it 2-2 for the sake tempered expectations. I think Miami is a lot like our home-and-home vs UT-Austin. They have talent but they've been called "back" for so many consecutive years that they have to prove it on the field before anyone should give them the benefit of the doubt. NC State parlayed a very good last season into transfer portal momentum, they're solid but at home they shouldn't strike fear into anyone's hearts. Idk if they can recapture their lightning-in-a-bottle '23 season. Syracuse is improved but let's be real, if we're under them on the football totem pole then we deserve to be left out of the next round of conference shuffling. Stanford has been falling for years, I like Troy Taylor but we've won the last couple Big Games and now we're at home and I don't see them as being markedly improved over last year. I think we match up well against them but it's a rivalry and that could swing either way.

Away:

@FSU
@Pitt
@Wake Forest
@SMU

Should be 3-1 as well. FSU is the only good team on this list. Pitt and SMU are solid but we have way more talent than SMU and Pitt is just a middling team. None of them are rollover teams, and I wouldn't expect it from the Wilcox tenure to this point, but if we don't go at least 2-2 against these teams something went horribly off-kilter.

Overall (conservative):
3-1 noncon
2-2 conference home
2-2 conference road

7-5 record should be considered the absolute baseline. Injuries always happen but if we're marred by injuries yet again that's something that needs to be looked into
His entire tenure as CAL's head coach has been a red flag.
calumnus
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ducktilldeath said:

Bearly Clad said:

StillNoStanfurdium said:

calbear80 said:

Our schedule will not be easy. For the ACC Conference games, we will be playing two out of the three teams picked to be tied to be for the first place and two out of the three teams picked to be tied for the fourth place. That is four out of the top six teams in the ACC. For non-conference games, we will be playing Auburn on the road and SDSU at home will not be easy. It is looking like another 6-6 season (or, maybe 7-5 season, if we are lucky or 5-7 season if we are unlucky). Hopefully, we will qualify for a bowl game.

Go Bears!
I know SDSU has been good in the past, but this year they're projected to finish 8th in the MWC with no pre-season all-conference honors (only the 3rd time in MW history that happened) and last year they finished tied for last in conference last year at 2-6 (4-8 overall). And while they got Sean Lewis (former Colorado OC) as the new HC an immediate turnaround seems unlikely.

If SDSU at home won't be easy we have far bigger problems with our ACC opponents and I'd say 6-6 and 7-a5 would be at risk.
If we don't hit 8 or 9 wins minimum then it's a huge red flag and Wilcox is probably out at the end of the season with his buyout now at a reasonable level plus '25 is the perfect easy schedule to give to a first year coach and build momentum. But just looking at the schedule there's no excuses:

Noncon:
UC Davis
SDSU
@ Auburn
OSU

3-1 is the expectation there or there's a major issue. We should've gotten Auburn last year but now they're one of the most improved teams in the country, at home, and in the 2nd year with their coach. OSU has been a thorn in our sides but realignment killed them, they lost most of their recruits, coaching staff, starting QB, star RB, and a slew of other players, if we don't beat them at home we need to take a long, hard look in the mirror. SDSU is another team who's ran a solid program recently but when that PAC invite didn't come the wheels fell off, they're a middling (at best) G6 team right now and we should have no issue with them.

Home:
Miami
NC State
Syracuse
Stanford

I think this should be 3-1 as well but let's call it 2-2 for the sake tempered expectations. I think Miami is a lot like our home-and-home vs UT-Austin. They have talent but they've been called "back" for so many consecutive years that they have to prove it on the field before anyone should give them the benefit of the doubt. NC State parlayed a very good last season into transfer portal momentum, they're solid but at home they shouldn't strike fear into anyone's hearts. Idk if they can recapture their lightning-in-a-bottle '23 season. Syracuse is improved but let's be real, if we're under them on the football totem pole then we deserve to be left out of the next round of conference shuffling. Stanford has been falling for years, I like Troy Taylor but we've won the last couple Big Games and now we're at home and I don't see them as being markedly improved over last year. I think we match up well against them but it's a rivalry and that could swing either way.

Away:

@FSU
@Pitt
@Wake Forest
@SMU

Should be 3-1 as well. FSU is the only good team on this list. Pitt and SMU are solid but we have way more talent than SMU and Pitt is just a middling team. None of them are rollover teams, and I wouldn't expect it from the Wilcox tenure to this point, but if we don't go at least 2-2 against these teams something went horribly off-kilter.

Overall (conservative):
3-1 noncon
2-2 conference home
2-2 conference road

7-5 record should be considered the absolute baseline. Injuries always happen but if we're marred by injuries yet again that's something that needs to be looked into
His entire tenure as CAL's head coach has been a red flag.


Don't go easy on him just because he is a fellow Duck, how do you really feel?

ducktilldeath
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calumnus said:

ducktilldeath said:

Bearly Clad said:

StillNoStanfurdium said:

calbear80 said:

Our schedule will not be easy. For the ACC Conference games, we will be playing two out of the three teams picked to be tied to be for the first place and two out of the three teams picked to be tied for the fourth place. That is four out of the top six teams in the ACC. For non-conference games, we will be playing Auburn on the road and SDSU at home will not be easy. It is looking like another 6-6 season (or, maybe 7-5 season, if we are lucky or 5-7 season if we are unlucky). Hopefully, we will qualify for a bowl game.

Go Bears!
I know SDSU has been good in the past, but this year they're projected to finish 8th in the MWC with no pre-season all-conference honors (only the 3rd time in MW history that happened) and last year they finished tied for last in conference last year at 2-6 (4-8 overall). And while they got Sean Lewis (former Colorado OC) as the new HC an immediate turnaround seems unlikely.

If SDSU at home won't be easy we have far bigger problems with our ACC opponents and I'd say 6-6 and 7-a5 would be at risk.
If we don't hit 8 or 9 wins minimum then it's a huge red flag and Wilcox is probably out at the end of the season with his buyout now at a reasonable level plus '25 is the perfect easy schedule to give to a first year coach and build momentum. But just looking at the schedule there's no excuses:

Noncon:
UC Davis
SDSU
@ Auburn
OSU

3-1 is the expectation there or there's a major issue. We should've gotten Auburn last year but now they're one of the most improved teams in the country, at home, and in the 2nd year with their coach. OSU has been a thorn in our sides but realignment killed them, they lost most of their recruits, coaching staff, starting QB, star RB, and a slew of other players, if we don't beat them at home we need to take a long, hard look in the mirror. SDSU is another team who's ran a solid program recently but when that PAC invite didn't come the wheels fell off, they're a middling (at best) G6 team right now and we should have no issue with them.

Home:
Miami
NC State
Syracuse
Stanford

I think this should be 3-1 as well but let's call it 2-2 for the sake tempered expectations. I think Miami is a lot like our home-and-home vs UT-Austin. They have talent but they've been called "back" for so many consecutive years that they have to prove it on the field before anyone should give them the benefit of the doubt. NC State parlayed a very good last season into transfer portal momentum, they're solid but at home they shouldn't strike fear into anyone's hearts. Idk if they can recapture their lightning-in-a-bottle '23 season. Syracuse is improved but let's be real, if we're under them on the football totem pole then we deserve to be left out of the next round of conference shuffling. Stanford has been falling for years, I like Troy Taylor but we've won the last couple Big Games and now we're at home and I don't see them as being markedly improved over last year. I think we match up well against them but it's a rivalry and that could swing either way.

Away:

@FSU
@Pitt
@Wake Forest
@SMU

Should be 3-1 as well. FSU is the only good team on this list. Pitt and SMU are solid but we have way more talent than SMU and Pitt is just a middling team. None of them are rollover teams, and I wouldn't expect it from the Wilcox tenure to this point, but if we don't go at least 2-2 against these teams something went horribly off-kilter.

Overall (conservative):
3-1 noncon
2-2 conference home
2-2 conference road

7-5 record should be considered the absolute baseline. Injuries always happen but if we're marred by injuries yet again that's something that needs to be looked into
His entire tenure as CAL's head coach has been a red flag.


Don't go easy on him just because he is a fellow Duck, how do you really feel?


I feel like CAL can win nobel prizes and football games with the region in which the program can recruit. Academically, the world, sportsbally a top 15 area in the nation.
calumnus
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ducktilldeath said:

calumnus said:

ducktilldeath said:

Bearly Clad said:

StillNoStanfurdium said:

calbear80 said:

Our schedule will not be easy. For the ACC Conference games, we will be playing two out of the three teams picked to be tied to be for the first place and two out of the three teams picked to be tied for the fourth place. That is four out of the top six teams in the ACC. For non-conference games, we will be playing Auburn on the road and SDSU at home will not be easy. It is looking like another 6-6 season (or, maybe 7-5 season, if we are lucky or 5-7 season if we are unlucky). Hopefully, we will qualify for a bowl game.

Go Bears!
I know SDSU has been good in the past, but this year they're projected to finish 8th in the MWC with no pre-season all-conference honors (only the 3rd time in MW history that happened) and last year they finished tied for last in conference last year at 2-6 (4-8 overall). And while they got Sean Lewis (former Colorado OC) as the new HC an immediate turnaround seems unlikely.

If SDSU at home won't be easy we have far bigger problems with our ACC opponents and I'd say 6-6 and 7-a5 would be at risk.
If we don't hit 8 or 9 wins minimum then it's a huge red flag and Wilcox is probably out at the end of the season with his buyout now at a reasonable level plus '25 is the perfect easy schedule to give to a first year coach and build momentum. But just looking at the schedule there's no excuses:

Noncon:
UC Davis
SDSU
@ Auburn
OSU

3-1 is the expectation there or there's a major issue. We should've gotten Auburn last year but now they're one of the most improved teams in the country, at home, and in the 2nd year with their coach. OSU has been a thorn in our sides but realignment killed them, they lost most of their recruits, coaching staff, starting QB, star RB, and a slew of other players, if we don't beat them at home we need to take a long, hard look in the mirror. SDSU is another team who's ran a solid program recently but when that PAC invite didn't come the wheels fell off, they're a middling (at best) G6 team right now and we should have no issue with them.

Home:
Miami
NC State
Syracuse
Stanford

I think this should be 3-1 as well but let's call it 2-2 for the sake tempered expectations. I think Miami is a lot like our home-and-home vs UT-Austin. They have talent but they've been called "back" for so many consecutive years that they have to prove it on the field before anyone should give them the benefit of the doubt. NC State parlayed a very good last season into transfer portal momentum, they're solid but at home they shouldn't strike fear into anyone's hearts. Idk if they can recapture their lightning-in-a-bottle '23 season. Syracuse is improved but let's be real, if we're under them on the football totem pole then we deserve to be left out of the next round of conference shuffling. Stanford has been falling for years, I like Troy Taylor but we've won the last couple Big Games and now we're at home and I don't see them as being markedly improved over last year. I think we match up well against them but it's a rivalry and that could swing either way.

Away:

@FSU
@Pitt
@Wake Forest
@SMU

Should be 3-1 as well. FSU is the only good team on this list. Pitt and SMU are solid but we have way more talent than SMU and Pitt is just a middling team. None of them are rollover teams, and I wouldn't expect it from the Wilcox tenure to this point, but if we don't go at least 2-2 against these teams something went horribly off-kilter.

Overall (conservative):
3-1 noncon
2-2 conference home
2-2 conference road

7-5 record should be considered the absolute baseline. Injuries always happen but if we're marred by injuries yet again that's something that needs to be looked into
His entire tenure as CAL's head coach has been a red flag.


Don't go easy on him just because he is a fellow Duck, how do you really feel?


I feel like CAL can win nobel prizes and football games with the region in which the program can recruit. Academically, the world, sportsbally a top 15 area in the nation.


Problem is Wilcox and staff spent the first 6 years focused on Oregon and Washington for recruiting and the last few years focused on Texas, but in either location Cal is relatively far back far back in the pecking order, with the top recruits going to other schools. I would guess we have the fewest number of California players in our history. We definitely got lucky with Ott.
ducktilldeath
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calumnus said:

ducktilldeath said:

calumnus said:

ducktilldeath said:

Bearly Clad said:

StillNoStanfurdium said:

calbear80 said:

Our schedule will not be easy. For the ACC Conference games, we will be playing two out of the three teams picked to be tied to be for the first place and two out of the three teams picked to be tied for the fourth place. That is four out of the top six teams in the ACC. For non-conference games, we will be playing Auburn on the road and SDSU at home will not be easy. It is looking like another 6-6 season (or, maybe 7-5 season, if we are lucky or 5-7 season if we are unlucky). Hopefully, we will qualify for a bowl game.

Go Bears!
I know SDSU has been good in the past, but this year they're projected to finish 8th in the MWC with no pre-season all-conference honors (only the 3rd time in MW history that happened) and last year they finished tied for last in conference last year at 2-6 (4-8 overall). And while they got Sean Lewis (former Colorado OC) as the new HC an immediate turnaround seems unlikely.

If SDSU at home won't be easy we have far bigger problems with our ACC opponents and I'd say 6-6 and 7-a5 would be at risk.
If we don't hit 8 or 9 wins minimum then it's a huge red flag and Wilcox is probably out at the end of the season with his buyout now at a reasonable level plus '25 is the perfect easy schedule to give to a first year coach and build momentum. But just looking at the schedule there's no excuses:

Noncon:
UC Davis
SDSU
@ Auburn
OSU

3-1 is the expectation there or there's a major issue. We should've gotten Auburn last year but now they're one of the most improved teams in the country, at home, and in the 2nd year with their coach. OSU has been a thorn in our sides but realignment killed them, they lost most of their recruits, coaching staff, starting QB, star RB, and a slew of other players, if we don't beat them at home we need to take a long, hard look in the mirror. SDSU is another team who's ran a solid program recently but when that PAC invite didn't come the wheels fell off, they're a middling (at best) G6 team right now and we should have no issue with them.

Home:
Miami
NC State
Syracuse
Stanford

I think this should be 3-1 as well but let's call it 2-2 for the sake tempered expectations. I think Miami is a lot like our home-and-home vs UT-Austin. They have talent but they've been called "back" for so many consecutive years that they have to prove it on the field before anyone should give them the benefit of the doubt. NC State parlayed a very good last season into transfer portal momentum, they're solid but at home they shouldn't strike fear into anyone's hearts. Idk if they can recapture their lightning-in-a-bottle '23 season. Syracuse is improved but let's be real, if we're under them on the football totem pole then we deserve to be left out of the next round of conference shuffling. Stanford has been falling for years, I like Troy Taylor but we've won the last couple Big Games and now we're at home and I don't see them as being markedly improved over last year. I think we match up well against them but it's a rivalry and that could swing either way.

Away:

@FSU
@Pitt
@Wake Forest
@SMU

Should be 3-1 as well. FSU is the only good team on this list. Pitt and SMU are solid but we have way more talent than SMU and Pitt is just a middling team. None of them are rollover teams, and I wouldn't expect it from the Wilcox tenure to this point, but if we don't go at least 2-2 against these teams something went horribly off-kilter.

Overall (conservative):
3-1 noncon
2-2 conference home
2-2 conference road

7-5 record should be considered the absolute baseline. Injuries always happen but if we're marred by injuries yet again that's something that needs to be looked into
His entire tenure as CAL's head coach has been a red flag.


Don't go easy on him just because he is a fellow Duck, how do you really feel?


I feel like CAL can win nobel prizes and football games with the region in which the program can recruit. Academically, the world, sportsbally a top 15 area in the nation.


Problem is Wilcox and staff spent the first 6 years focused on Oregon and Washington for recruiting and the last few years focused on Texas, but in either location Cal is relatively far back far back in the pecking order, with the top recruits going to other schools. I would guess we have the fewest number of California players in our history. We definitely got lucky with Ott.
The problem is way older and bigger than that. And, at the end of the day, Nobel Prizes > Nattys.
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