kal kommie said:
Eyeballing the probability of winning each game based on SRS (plus home field adv):
NC State: 80%
Oregon State: 60%
Wake Forest: 70%
Syracuse: 50%
Stanford: 80%
SMU: 20%
Taking those probabilities as win shares = 3.6 wins
So on paper 7-5 and 6-6 are the most likely outcomes, with 7 wins slightly more likely than 6. I believe we'll go 7-5.
Just as a general guide. Betting lines tend to be fairly close to it. We're a 10 point favorite this Saturday in Vegas. By SRS we're a 10 point favorite counting 2.5 points for home. Moneyline is +305/-410, suggesting we're a less than 80% favorite.ducky23 said:SRS? Cmon mankal kommie said:
Eyeballing the probability of winning each game based on SRS (plus home field adv):
NC State: 80%
Oregon State: 60%
Wake Forest: 70%
Syracuse: 50%
Stanford: 80%
SMU: 20%
Taking those probabilities as win shares = 3.6 wins
So on paper 7-5 and 6-6 are the most likely outcomes, with 7 wins slightly more likely than 6. I believe we'll go 7-5.
With this staff, we're losing many more than that.southseasbear said:
I have a feeling we are going to lose the Big Game.
CNHTH said:
Sadly I don't think we're beating anyone the rest of the year, but I'll give us 1 more win that's an anomaly.
NC state and wake are our best hope and with NC State they have bigger and deeper lines.
Wake is the obvious choice but it's a Friday game and we seem to like to lose to teams we shouldn't to on the road.
I'm thinking we beat NC state at home in a barn burner a la Wazzu; and lose to wake on the road a la Colorado.
4-8, and we limp into the off-season with the powers at be hoping we forget all about it.
JKS will decommit 3 days prior to signing day and as usual Wilcox won't sign any oline recruits and will ghost to his mansion in Idaho complaining about how awful California is to his trumpy pals.
Nofado said:
Ashton Daniels will be out for the season by the time the Big Game comes around.
Golden One said:Nofado said:
Ashton Daniels will be out for the season by the time the Big Game comes around.
That's more likely to happen to Mendoza the way he's getting banged around.
Nofado said:
Ashton Daniels will be out for the season by the time the Big Game comes around.
I like your attitude.BarcaBear said:
We beat Stanford, and lose all other games.
Beavers bust out another win.
Cal loses a close one to Wake Forest, comes down to a missed field goal
Syracuse looks close, but Cal misses multiple field goals to secure the loss.
We beat Stanford 21 to 18 and yet it feels like Stanford loses intentionally just to troll Cal by hitting 6 field goals.
SMU is going to humiliate our coaches so badly (72-14) that the 4th quarter is shortened by 10 minutes. Wilcox grows a conscious and decides to take his buy out over a 30 year period so Cal can move on from his terrible time at the helm. Ron Rivera becomes head coach (for free) just so that he doesn't have to read Calalumnus constantly talking about how Ron will save Cal football.
Im so bad at this, I genuinely thought we had the talent to compete for ACC title. I was half right. We do have the athletic talent, we just don't have the coaching talent.
This is Cal after all, so Cal will probably run the table and Knowlton will hand Wilcox a lifetime extension. lolol
BarcaBear said:
We beat Stanford, and lose all other games.
Beavers bust out another win.
Cal loses a close one to Wake Forest, comes down to a missed field goal
Syracuse looks close, but Cal misses multiple field goals to secure the loss.
We beat Stanford 21 to 18 and yet it feels like Stanford loses intentionally just to troll Cal by hitting 6 field goals.
SMU is going to humiliate our coaches so badly (72-14) that the 4th quarter is shortened by 10 minutes. Wilcox grows a conscious and decides to take his buy out over a 30 year period so Cal can move on from his terrible time at the helm. Ron Rivera becomes head coach (for free) just so that he doesn't have to read Calalumnus constantly talking about how Ron will save Cal football.
Im so bad at this, I genuinely thought we had the talent to compete for ACC title. I was half right. We do have the athletic talent, we just don't have the coaching talent.
This is Cal after all, so Cal will probably run the table and Knowlton will hand Wilcox a lifetime extension. lolol
Nofado said:
Let's see how everyone is about predicting the outcome of the remaining games and our final record.
Wilcox-ing it.BarcaBear said:
I started laughing maniacally when we missed that field goal toward the back end of the 4th quarter.
Wilcox has created a new floor, we can no longer say Coug'ing it, it is now officially, Cal-ling it. And I'm calling it now, we're Cal-ling it next week with more missed field goals. *Cue maniacal laugh*
We few Stanford faithful sure hope so. The only reason Elijah Brown hasn't seen the field sooner is b/c of a fluke injury to his finger in practice after the Cal Poly game. Brown isn't the next Andrew Luck, but he reads defenses and releases more quickly than Daniels, who's regressed a lot since last season. No question Brown had a tough outing yesterday, but SMU's D is the stiffest he'll face the rest of the way, he was still wearing a glove on his throwing hand, and his receivers did him few favors.Nofado said:
Ashton Daniels will be out for the season by the time the Big Game comes around.
My Beavers are a mess right now. I hear we get a couple defensive players back for the Cal game, so that helps, but still.....if Cal shows up at all, you will get your feel better game against our porous defense. I'll be there to support, but fully expecting a Bears win...maybe even big.DoubtfulBear said:BarcaBear said:
We beat Stanford, and lose all other games.
Beavers bust out another win.
Cal loses a close one to Wake Forest, comes down to a missed field goal
Syracuse looks close, but Cal misses multiple field goals to secure the loss.
We beat Stanford 21 to 18 and yet it feels like Stanford loses intentionally just to troll Cal by hitting 6 field goals.
SMU is going to humiliate our coaches so badly (72-14) that the 4th quarter is shortened by 10 minutes. Wilcox grows a conscious and decides to take his buy out over a 30 year period so Cal can move on from his terrible time at the helm. Ron Rivera becomes head coach (for free) just so that he doesn't have to read Calalumnus constantly talking about how Ron will save Cal football.
Im so bad at this, I genuinely thought we had the talent to compete for ACC title. I was half right. We do have the athletic talent, we just don't have the coaching talent.
This is Cal after all, so Cal will probably run the table and Knowlton will hand Wilcox a lifetime extension. lolol
I have no faith that we will beat Furd. They are 5-1 Syracuse's only loss. Meanwhile our best win is 2-5 Auburn
Beaverdreams2 said:My Beavers are a mess right now. I hear we get a couple defensive players back for the Cal game, so that helps, but still.....if Cal shows up at all, you will get your feel better game against our porous defense. I'll be there to support, but fully expecting a Bears win...maybe even big.DoubtfulBear said:BarcaBear said:
We beat Stanford, and lose all other games.
Beavers bust out another win.
Cal loses a close one to Wake Forest, comes down to a missed field goal
Syracuse looks close, but Cal misses multiple field goals to secure the loss.
We beat Stanford 21 to 18 and yet it feels like Stanford loses intentionally just to troll Cal by hitting 6 field goals.
SMU is going to humiliate our coaches so badly (72-14) that the 4th quarter is shortened by 10 minutes. Wilcox grows a conscious and decides to take his buy out over a 30 year period so Cal can move on from his terrible time at the helm. Ron Rivera becomes head coach (for free) just so that he doesn't have to read Calalumnus constantly talking about how Ron will save Cal football.
Im so bad at this, I genuinely thought we had the talent to compete for ACC title. I was half right. We do have the athletic talent, we just don't have the coaching talent.
This is Cal after all, so Cal will probably run the table and Knowlton will hand Wilcox a lifetime extension. lolol
I have no faith that we will beat Furd. They are 5-1 Syracuse's only loss. Meanwhile our best win is 2-5 Auburn
Beaverdreams2 said:My Beavers are a mess right now. I hear we get a couple defensive players back for the Cal game, so that helps, but still.....if Cal shows up at all, you will get your feel better game against our porous defense. I'll be there to support, but fully expecting a Bears win...maybe even big.DoubtfulBear said:BarcaBear said:
We beat Stanford, and lose all other games.
Beavers bust out another win.
Cal loses a close one to Wake Forest, comes down to a missed field goal
Syracuse looks close, but Cal misses multiple field goals to secure the loss.
We beat Stanford 21 to 18 and yet it feels like Stanford loses intentionally just to troll Cal by hitting 6 field goals.
SMU is going to humiliate our coaches so badly (72-14) that the 4th quarter is shortened by 10 minutes. Wilcox grows a conscious and decides to take his buy out over a 30 year period so Cal can move on from his terrible time at the helm. Ron Rivera becomes head coach (for free) just so that he doesn't have to read Calalumnus constantly talking about how Ron will save Cal football.
Im so bad at this, I genuinely thought we had the talent to compete for ACC title. I was half right. We do have the athletic talent, we just don't have the coaching talent.
This is Cal after all, so Cal will probably run the table and Knowlton will hand Wilcox a lifetime extension. lolol
I have no faith that we will beat Furd. They are 5-1 Syracuse's only loss. Meanwhile our best win is 2-5 Auburn
Wang24 said:
It's amazing how the teams we played in the ACC struggles with us , yet defeat their foes easily (Miami vs. Louisville/ Pitt vs Cuse/ etc… the over arching theme for this season is "finishing" it's like Cal forgot that there are four quarters to football… which leaves me to believe what practice is like…… you give half effort practices, you get half effort results on gameday…we be lucky to go bowling this season. I'm out of optimism for this years team…
calumnus said:Wang24 said:
It's amazing how the teams we played in the ACC struggles with us , yet defeat their foes easily (Miami vs. Louisville/ Pitt vs Cuse/ etc… the over arching theme for this season is "finishing" it's like Cal forgot that there are four quarters to football… which leaves me to believe what practice is like…… you give half effort practices, you get half effort results on gameday…we be lucky to go bowling this season. I'm out of optimism for this years team…
We could easily be 7-0 instead of 3-4, we have the talent.
Who guessed we would get into November without a single ACC win?
It's not hard to guess considering Wilcox's historical record in October. Although I do like to be vindicated after years of being called out for being negative as my "schtick"Big C said:calumnus said:Wang24 said:
It's amazing how the teams we played in the ACC struggles with us , yet defeat their foes easily (Miami vs. Louisville/ Pitt vs Cuse/ etc… the over arching theme for this season is "finishing" it's like Cal forgot that there are four quarters to football… which leaves me to believe what practice is like…… you give half effort practices, you get half effort results on gameday…we be lucky to go bowling this season. I'm out of optimism for this years team…
We could easily be 7-0 instead of 3-4, we have the talent.
Who guessed we would get into November without a single ACC win?
DoubtfulBear
calumnus said:Wang24 said:
It's amazing how the teams we played in the ACC struggles with us , yet defeat their foes easily (Miami vs. Louisville/ Pitt vs Cuse/ etc… the over arching theme for this season is "finishing" it's like Cal forgot that there are four quarters to football… which leaves me to believe what practice is like…… you give half effort practices, you get half effort results on gameday…we be lucky to go bowling this season. I'm out of optimism for this years team…
We could easily be 7-0 instead of 3-4, we have the talent.
Who guessed we would get into November without a single ACC win?
oskidunker said:calumnus said:Wang24 said:
It's amazing how the teams we played in the ACC struggles with us , yet defeat their foes easily (Miami vs. Louisville/ Pitt vs Cuse/ etc… the over arching theme for this season is "finishing" it's like Cal forgot that there are four quarters to football… which leaves me to believe what practice is like…… you give half effort practices, you get half effort results on gameday…we be lucky to go bowling this season. I'm out of optimism for this years team…
We could easily be 7-0 instead of 3-4, we have the talent.
Who guessed we would get into November without a single ACC win?
DoubtfulBear said:It's not hard to guess considering Wilcox's historical record in October. Although I do like to be vindicated after years of being called out for being negative as my "schtick"Big C said:calumnus said:Wang24 said:
It's amazing how the teams we played in the ACC struggles with us , yet defeat their foes easily (Miami vs. Louisville/ Pitt vs Cuse/ etc… the over arching theme for this season is "finishing" it's like Cal forgot that there are four quarters to football… which leaves me to believe what practice is like…… you give half effort practices, you get half effort results on gameday…we be lucky to go bowling this season. I'm out of optimism for this years team…
We could easily be 7-0 instead of 3-4, we have the talent.
Who guessed we would get into November without a single ACC win?
DoubtfulBear
Trust me, I would be elated if we were Pitt or Indiana or BYU right now. But we're not. And instead I have to deal with delusional sunshine pumpers every day that keep telling me to "support the team", "we're turning the corner", and "there's nothing we can do".Big C said:DoubtfulBear said:It's not hard to guess considering Wilcox's historical record in October. Although I do like to be vindicated after years of being called out for being negative as my "schtick"Big C said:calumnus said:Wang24 said:
It's amazing how the teams we played in the ACC struggles with us , yet defeat their foes easily (Miami vs. Louisville/ Pitt vs Cuse/ etc… the over arching theme for this season is "finishing" it's like Cal forgot that there are four quarters to football… which leaves me to believe what practice is like…… you give half effort practices, you get half effort results on gameday…we be lucky to go bowling this season. I'm out of optimism for this years team…
We could easily be 7-0 instead of 3-4, we have the talent.
Who guessed we would get into November without a single ACC win?
DoubtfulBear
That's the thing, you seem to like being negative a bit too much for my tastes. Not that I'm exactly feeling super-positive right now, but at least I hate this feeling.
