ducky23 said:

---

A couple things to remember

- bowls can take whoever they want as long as teams are within 1 game in overall record. (So WSU at 11-1 will be guaranteed that Alamo bowl assuming Oregon and CU in playoffs)

- even with 7 wins, I'm not sure cal is more attractive to bowls then UW or USC (which again is why at least 1 needs to not be bowl eligible - or else we're looking at the army/gasparailla bowl if CU doesn't come thru)

- I'm working under the assumption that bowls will not want intra conference games (which in my opinion makes holiday and sun unlikely - especially if it's a rematch game)

- LA bowl highly unlikely to take UCLA again, which is why it's much preferable for UCLA to bowl eligible and not usc or UW

Bottom line, if you care about what bowl cal goes to, root for Colorado and UCLA (Nebraska over USC would actually be most ideal of all)

---

Yeah, if Nebraska beats USC, then it's much less likely two of UCLA, USC, and UW will get to 6 wins.

Agreed that Holiday and Sun are unlikely but Sun is not completely impossible. If UO and CU are in the playoff, the Sun would be taking the 6th choice among ex-Pac teams.

Realistically the Vegas bowl would choose USC or UCLA or UW if they can because of the perception (accurate or not) that fans of those teams would buy more bowl tickets. Also, Vegas bowl is likely to want the Big Ten as a partner for the next round of bowl deals, which is another reason for them to choose a Big Ten team if they can.

BearSD said:

---

ducky23 said:

---

Yes I think that's correct. In the event that Oregon and CU makes the playoffs and there are only 6 bowl eligible teams, Cal would most likely be in the Sun. I believe the Sun would only take cal if they have no other choices.

Though I do think if cal had 7 wins and UW was the other bowl eligible teams with 6, Cal may have a fighting chance.




A couple things to remember

- bowls can take whoever they want as long as teams are within 1 game in overall record. (So WSU at 11-1 will be guaranteed that Alamo bowl assuming Oregon and CU in playoffs)

- even with 7 wins, I'm not sure cal is more attractive to bowls then UW or USC (which again is why at least 1 needs to not be bowl eligible - or else we're looking at the army/gasparailla bowl if CU doesn't come thru)

- I'm working under the assumption that bowls will not want intra conference games (which in my opinion makes holiday and sun unlikely - especially if it's a rematch game)

- LA bowl highly unlikely to take UCLA again, which is why it's much preferable for UCLA to bowl eligible and not usc or UW

Bottom line, if you care about what bowl cal goes to, root for Colorado and UCLA (Nebraska over USC would actually be most ideal of all)

---

Yeah, if Nebraska beats USC, then it's much less likely two of UCLA, USC, and UW will get to 6 wins.

Agreed that Holiday and Sun are unlikely but Sun is not completely impossible. If UO and CU are in the playoff, the Sun would be taking the 6th choice among ex-Pac teams.

Realistically the Vegas bowl would choose USC or UCLA or UW if they can because of the perception (accurate or not) that fans of those teams would buy more bowl tickets. Also, Vegas bowl is likely to want the Big Ten as a partner for the next round of bowl deals, which is another reason for them to choose a Big Ten team if they can.

---

Yes I believe that's correct. If Oregon and CU are in the playoffs and there are only 6 bowl eligible teams, Sun would have no choice then to take Cal (unless some sort of trade occurred?)

One caveat, there's also a chance vegas takes cal over UW in that situation, but I don't see vegas taking cal over either of the La schools.

Also if cal does get to 7 wins in the above scenario, I think there's a decent chance that holiday could take cal over ASU (holiday would not have any of the 6 win teams as options assuming ASU gets to 8).

oskidunker said:

---

calumnus said:

---

Strykur said:

---

SC is at #25 while sporting a 4-5 record, alright well a bowl committee will not care if SC is top-25 in Sagarin predictor if they finish with a losing season

---

If they finish with a losing record USC isn't going anywhere (unless Oregon, Colorado and WSU make the playoffs and we don't have enough eligible teams). If USC finishes 6-6 I would not count on Vegas or Holiday picking a 7-5 Cal over them.

---

Shades of 1975

---

Cal would have gone to a good bowl if that was allowed in '75!

mbBear said:

---

oskidunker said:

---

calumnus said:

---

Strykur said:

---

SC is at #25 while sporting a 4-5 record, alright well a bowl committee will not care if SC is top-25 in Sagarin predictor if they finish with a losing season

---

If they finish with a losing record USC isn't going anywhere (unless Oregon, Colorado and WSU make the playoffs and we don't have enough eligible teams). If USC finishes 6-6 I would not count on Vegas or Holiday picking a 7-5 Cal over them.

---

Shades of 1975

---

Cal would have gone to a good bowl if that was allowed in '75!

---

Liberty Bowl took usc who had a worse record than us, and we beat them.

ducky23 said:

---

BearSD said:

---

ducky23 said:

---

Yes I think that's correct. In the event that Oregon and CU makes the playoffs and there are only 6 bowl eligible teams, Cal would most likely be in the Sun. I believe the Sun would only take cal if they have no other choices.

Though I do think if cal had 7 wins and UW was the other bowl eligible teams with 6, Cal may have a fighting chance.




A couple things to remember

- bowls can take whoever they want as long as teams are within 1 game in overall record. (So WSU at 11-1 will be guaranteed that Alamo bowl assuming Oregon and CU in playoffs)

- even with 7 wins, I'm not sure cal is more attractive to bowls then UW or USC (which again is why at least 1 needs to not be bowl eligible - or else we're looking at the army/gasparailla bowl if CU doesn't come thru)

- I'm working under the assumption that bowls will not want intra conference games (which in my opinion makes holiday and sun unlikely - especially if it's a rematch game)

- LA bowl highly unlikely to take UCLA again, which is why it's much preferable for UCLA to bowl eligible and not usc or UW

Bottom line, if you care about what bowl cal goes to, root for Colorado and UCLA (Nebraska over USC would actually be most ideal of all)

---

Yeah, if Nebraska beats USC, then it's much less likely two of UCLA, USC, and UW will get to 6 wins.

Agreed that Holiday and Sun are unlikely but Sun is not completely impossible. If UO and CU are in the playoff, the Sun would be taking the 6th choice among ex-Pac teams.

Realistically the Vegas bowl would choose USC or UCLA or UW if they can because of the perception (accurate or not) that fans of those teams would buy more bowl tickets. Also, Vegas bowl is likely to want the Big Ten as a partner for the next round of bowl deals, which is another reason for them to choose a Big Ten team if they can.

---

Yes I believe that's correct. If Oregon and CU are in the playoffs and there are only 6 bowl eligible teams, Sun would have no choice then to take Cal (unless some sort of trade occurred?)

One caveat, there's also a chance vegas takes cal over UW in that situation, but I don't see vegas taking cal over either of the La schools.

Also if cal does get to 7 wins in the above scenario, I think there's a decent chance that holiday could take cal over ASU (holiday would not have any of the 6 win teams as options assuming ASU gets to 8).

---

I don't know how likely it is that the Holiday would want Cal vs an ACC team. ASU is a solid option for them. Sun bowl, on the other hand, might be in a situation where Cal vs an ACC team looks better than their alternatives. If it gets to that point: Cal vs Georgia Tech seems possible given that the teams didn't play this season, haven't played each other at all since 1978, and won't meet in a conference game until 2027.

Would love to check out the bowl. For that reason, I hope it's not the Sun. Irrelevant bowl and poor location make for bleh trip.

ducky23 said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

Strykur said:

---

calumnus said:

---

BearSD said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

It would be kind of weird for us to play against an ACC opponent at this point, so the Holiday and Sun might be awkward even if we qualify, especially if we get a regular season rematch. Same with Colorado or ASU getting picked vs. B12 in the Alamo,

Ideally the bowls could trade teams Monopoly-style and set up legacy P12 v P12 matchups! Other than the Independence Bowl those fan bases would travel better, and there would be more interest for those matchups as well.

---

That would be ideal but it would be difficult to get everyone to agree.

Example 1: Alamo bowl prefers CU to WSU because the bowl wants to sell more tickets. Vegas bowl would prefer CU for the same reason, and wouldn't agree to any trade that would make it easier for the Alamo to get CU. (This is moot if WSU has at least 2 more wins than CU. In that case the Alamo is forced to select WSU, because of the rules the bowls agreed amongst themselves.)

Example 2: Maybe the Holiday wants to swap its ACC team to the LA bowl so that Holiday can sell more tickets with a game matching two ex-Pac teams. If that results in Pitt playing UNLV in LA instead of ASU in SD, Pitt might object. LA bowl would also object to getting an east coast team instead of an ex-Pac team that would sell more tickets in LA.

---

The way it works is the bowls have a picking order;
1. Alamo vs Big 12
2. Holiday vs ACC
3. Las Vegas vs SEC
4. Sun vs ACC
5. LA vs MWC
6. Independence vs Big 12

So Alamo gets its pick of all the eligible former PAC-12 teams. After they pick, Holiday gets to pick. Then Vegas, etc.

Other than eligibility, they can use whatever criteria they want, proximity, star power…they don't have to follow W/L record or ranking. However, I highly doubt the bowls are going to select a former PAC-12 team to play against a team from their new conference, especially if that would mean a rematch of a conference game. That is why I don't think we would be selected for the Sun, but it is also why I don't think the 4 corners teams will be picked for the Alamo, probably USC or WSU. I was hoping for Vegas, but I think a 4 corners team gets that and Sun.

Which leaves LA as our target option. I think we e would get a good crowd, we could invite recruits, and it is better than returning to Shreveport.

---

If Oregon and Colorado make the playoff, the top teams would be Wazzu, ASU, and us even at 7-5 (since it is not likely any of SC/UW/flukela do better than 6-6), so that could fly us up to Vegas or maybe San Diego

---

WSU has played a glorified MWC schedule, whereas USC for example has played a B10 slate plus LSU and ND OOC, apples and oranges, so I am not sure how binding the W/L record is for these bowls...

---

A couple things to remember

- bowls can take whoever they want as long as teams are within 1 game in overall record. (So WSU at 11-1 will be guaranteed that Alamo bowl assuming Oregon and CU in playoffs)

- even with 7 wins, I'm not sure cal is more attractive to bowls then UW or USC (which again is why at least 1 needs to not be bowl eligible - or else we're looking at the army/gasparailla bowl if CU doesn't come thru)

- I'm working under the assumption that bowls will not want intra conference games (which in my opinion makes holiday and sun unlikely - especially if it's a rematch game)

- LA bowl highly unlikely to take UCLA again, which is why it's much preferable for UCLA to bowl eligible and not usc or UW

Bottom line, if you care about what bowl cal goes to, root for Colorado and UCLA (Nebraska over USC would actually be most ideal of all)

---

For what it's worth, the bowl projections at CBS Sports and one at ESPN have us playing in bowls against Duke and Louisville (not sure who picked each one), so I'd say it's not out of the question for us to play against an ACC team in a bowl.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

ducky23 said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

Strykur said:

---

calumnus said:

---

BearSD said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

It would be kind of weird for us to play against an ACC opponent at this point, so the Holiday and Sun might be awkward even if we qualify, especially if we get a regular season rematch. Same with Colorado or ASU getting picked vs. B12 in the Alamo,

Ideally the bowls could trade teams Monopoly-style and set up legacy P12 v P12 matchups! Other than the Independence Bowl those fan bases would travel better, and there would be more interest for those matchups as well.

---

That would be ideal but it would be difficult to get everyone to agree.

Example 1: Alamo bowl prefers CU to WSU because the bowl wants to sell more tickets. Vegas bowl would prefer CU for the same reason, and wouldn't agree to any trade that would make it easier for the Alamo to get CU. (This is moot if WSU has at least 2 more wins than CU. In that case the Alamo is forced to select WSU, because of the rules the bowls agreed amongst themselves.)

Example 2: Maybe the Holiday wants to swap its ACC team to the LA bowl so that Holiday can sell more tickets with a game matching two ex-Pac teams. If that results in Pitt playing UNLV in LA instead of ASU in SD, Pitt might object. LA bowl would also object to getting an east coast team instead of an ex-Pac team that would sell more tickets in LA.

---

The way it works is the bowls have a picking order;
1. Alamo vs Big 12
2. Holiday vs ACC
3. Las Vegas vs SEC
4. Sun vs ACC
5. LA vs MWC
6. Independence vs Big 12

So Alamo gets its pick of all the eligible former PAC-12 teams. After they pick, Holiday gets to pick. Then Vegas, etc.

Other than eligibility, they can use whatever criteria they want, proximity, star power…they don't have to follow W/L record or ranking. However, I highly doubt the bowls are going to select a former PAC-12 team to play against a team from their new conference, especially if that would mean a rematch of a conference game. That is why I don't think we would be selected for the Sun, but it is also why I don't think the 4 corners teams will be picked for the Alamo, probably USC or WSU. I was hoping for Vegas, but I think a 4 corners team gets that and Sun.

Which leaves LA as our target option. I think we e would get a good crowd, we could invite recruits, and it is better than returning to Shreveport.

---

If Oregon and Colorado make the playoff, the top teams would be Wazzu, ASU, and us even at 7-5 (since it is not likely any of SC/UW/flukela do better than 6-6), so that could fly us up to Vegas or maybe San Diego

---

WSU has played a glorified MWC schedule, whereas USC for example has played a B10 slate plus LSU and ND OOC, apples and oranges, so I am not sure how binding the W/L record is for these bowls...

---

A couple things to remember

- bowls can take whoever they want as long as teams are within 1 game in overall record. (So WSU at 11-1 will be guaranteed that Alamo bowl assuming Oregon and CU in playoffs)

- even with 7 wins, I'm not sure cal is more attractive to bowls then UW or USC (which again is why at least 1 needs to not be bowl eligible - or else we're looking at the army/gasparailla bowl if CU doesn't come thru)

- I'm working under the assumption that bowls will not want intra conference games (which in my opinion makes holiday and sun unlikely - especially if it's a rematch game)

- LA bowl highly unlikely to take UCLA again, which is why it's much preferable for UCLA to bowl eligible and not usc or UW

Bottom line, if you care about what bowl cal goes to, root for Colorado and UCLA (Nebraska over USC would actually be most ideal of all)

---

For what it's worth, the bowl projections at CBS Sports and one at ESPN have us playing in bowls against Duke and Louisville (not sure who picked each one), so I'd say it's not out of the question for us to play against an ACC team in a bowl.

---

As long as it's not a rematch with an ACC team we've played this year, would be OK

Cal88 said:

---

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

ducky23 said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

Strykur said:

---

calumnus said:

---

BearSD said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

It would be kind of weird for us to play against an ACC opponent at this point, so the Holiday and Sun might be awkward even if we qualify, especially if we get a regular season rematch. Same with Colorado or ASU getting picked vs. B12 in the Alamo,

Ideally the bowls could trade teams Monopoly-style and set up legacy P12 v P12 matchups! Other than the Independence Bowl those fan bases would travel better, and there would be more interest for those matchups as well.

---

That would be ideal but it would be difficult to get everyone to agree.

Example 1: Alamo bowl prefers CU to WSU because the bowl wants to sell more tickets. Vegas bowl would prefer CU for the same reason, and wouldn't agree to any trade that would make it easier for the Alamo to get CU. (This is moot if WSU has at least 2 more wins than CU. In that case the Alamo is forced to select WSU, because of the rules the bowls agreed amongst themselves.)

Example 2: Maybe the Holiday wants to swap its ACC team to the LA bowl so that Holiday can sell more tickets with a game matching two ex-Pac teams. If that results in Pitt playing UNLV in LA instead of ASU in SD, Pitt might object. LA bowl would also object to getting an east coast team instead of an ex-Pac team that would sell more tickets in LA.

---

The way it works is the bowls have a picking order;
1. Alamo vs Big 12
2. Holiday vs ACC
3. Las Vegas vs SEC
4. Sun vs ACC
5. LA vs MWC
6. Independence vs Big 12

So Alamo gets its pick of all the eligible former PAC-12 teams. After they pick, Holiday gets to pick. Then Vegas, etc.

Other than eligibility, they can use whatever criteria they want, proximity, star power…they don't have to follow W/L record or ranking. However, I highly doubt the bowls are going to select a former PAC-12 team to play against a team from their new conference, especially if that would mean a rematch of a conference game. That is why I don't think we would be selected for the Sun, but it is also why I don't think the 4 corners teams will be picked for the Alamo, probably USC or WSU. I was hoping for Vegas, but I think a 4 corners team gets that and Sun.

Which leaves LA as our target option. I think we e would get a good crowd, we could invite recruits, and it is better than returning to Shreveport.

---

If Oregon and Colorado make the playoff, the top teams would be Wazzu, ASU, and us even at 7-5 (since it is not likely any of SC/UW/flukela do better than 6-6), so that could fly us up to Vegas or maybe San Diego

---

WSU has played a glorified MWC schedule, whereas USC for example has played a B10 slate plus LSU and ND OOC, apples and oranges, so I am not sure how binding the W/L record is for these bowls...

---

A couple things to remember

- bowls can take whoever they want as long as teams are within 1 game in overall record. (So WSU at 11-1 will be guaranteed that Alamo bowl assuming Oregon and CU in playoffs)

- even with 7 wins, I'm not sure cal is more attractive to bowls then UW or USC (which again is why at least 1 needs to not be bowl eligible - or else we're looking at the army/gasparailla bowl if CU doesn't come thru)

- I'm working under the assumption that bowls will not want intra conference games (which in my opinion makes holiday and sun unlikely - especially if it's a rematch game)

- LA bowl highly unlikely to take UCLA again, which is why it's much preferable for UCLA to bowl eligible and not usc or UW

Bottom line, if you care about what bowl cal goes to, root for Colorado and UCLA (Nebraska over USC would actually be most ideal of all)

---

For what it's worth, the bowl projections at CBS Sports and one at ESPN have us playing in bowls against Duke and Louisville (not sure who picked each one), so I'd say it's not out of the question for us to play against an ACC team in a bowl.

---

As long as it's not a rematch with an ACC team we've played this year, would be OK

---

I wouldn't mind playing nc state again

socaliganbear said:

---

Would love to check out the bowl. For that reason, I hope it's not the Sun. Irrelevant bowl and poor location make for bleh trip.

---

socal, the bowl game is not about ur travel convenience which honestly is totally irrelevant to building a dynamic football program, got it?

the la & las vegas bowls are during berkeley finals weeks & also early in the bowl season so it won't be possible to use all the ncca allocated practices (which are kinda like an extra spring ball) kinda like last year's knowlton **** up independence bowl in the middle of finals

the sun bowl gives the bears another recruiting window in texas, the full allocation of all the bowl game practices & the 100% focus of the players 2 weeks after brutal final exams in berkeley

curious how many of the 4 road games this year you've made?...if so, which games & did you enjoy them?

the bears opponent whether or not they're are an acc team (already played or not) is also completely irrelevant to all parties (the bowl game, the teams & the networks)

Shocky1 said:

---

socaliganbear said:

---

Would love to check out the bowl. For that reason, I hope it's not the Sun. Irrelevant bowl and poor location make for bleh trip.

---

socal, the bowl game is not about ur travel convenience which honestly is totally irrelevant to building a dynamic football program, got it?

the la & las vegas bowls are during berkeley finals weeks & also early in the bowl season so it won't be possible to use all the ncca allocated practices (which are kinda like an extra spring ball) kinda like last year's knowlton **** up independence bowl in the middle of finals

the sun bowl gives the bears another recruiting window in texas, the full allocation of all the bowl game practices & the 100% focus of the players 2 weeks after brutal final exams in berkeley

---

It's kind of quaint how the NCAA now allows players to be paid, but still strictly limits the number of practices in the offseason...

socaliganbear said:

---

Would love to check out the bowl. For that reason, I hope it's not the Sun. Irrelevant bowl and poor location make for bleh trip.

---

I actually have rooted for the Sun for a few years, because Cal has never played there. Not sure how you are measuring "relevance" in the Playoff era, but the Sun Bowl certainly has a longer history than most. But date and time are middle of the road in the bowl line up, give you that.
As for location...I haven't been to El Paso since 1980, and it was only overnight. The reality is, the ACC bowl locations will probably move the needle a bit more for all of us....

Sun Bowl is close to New Year's and has a CBS broadcast deal, so from that standpoint it still carries some cache as a bowl game, even if the destination is not that interesting.

calumnus said:

---

This was in another thread but I think it deserves its own. The old PAC-12 will be competing for PAC-12 bowl tie ins (in picking order):

Alamo vs Big 12
Holiday vs ACC
Las Vegas vs SEC
Sun vs ACC
LA vs MWC
Independence vs Big 12

Here is how the old PAC-12 line up, with Sagarin ranking, current record and projected final record with likely bowl:

#3 Oregon 8-0 > 12-0 CFP
#46 WSU 7-1 > 11-1 Alamo, Holiday or Vegas
#22 Colorado 6-2 > 10-2 Vegas or Holiday
#20 USC 4-4 > 7-5 Holiday, Alamo or Vegas
#36 Cal 4-4 > 7-5 LA
#53 ASU 5-2 > 7-5 Sun
#85 OSU 4-4 > 6-6 Independence

#44 Utah 4-4 >5-7
#52 UW 4-4 > 5-7
#65 UA 3-5 > 4-8
#66 UCLA 2-5 > 3-9
#104 Furd 2-6 > 2-10

I was hoping for Vegas, but I think WSU, Colorado and USC get the top 3 bowls and we end up in LA playing UNLV unless UW or Utah can get to 6-6, then maybe they bump us to Shreveport again.

---

I hope the Bears are not reading this post. We are not good enough to be focusing on choosing which bowl we WILL qualify for.

The Oregon State game was great for the team's morale. But the final score vs Wake Forest should not give us an inflated sense of how Cal will do over the final 3 games of the season

With a few minutes to go in Saturday's game, Cal's 15-point lead had been whittled down to a 3-point lead. WF had the ball and it looked to me that Cal was about to lose another nail-biter.

I am thankful that 1. the Defense came up with Two take aways and 2. The offense finally found a way to keep a drive alive when it needed it most.

But I for one am far from certain that Cal has finally learned how to WIN in the closing minutes of a close game.

Maybe Cal has Or maybe Cal was just lucky.

GivemTheAxe said:

---

calumnus said:

---

This was in another thread but I think it deserves its own. The old PAC-12 will be competing for PAC-12 bowl tie ins (in picking order):

Alamo vs Big 12
Holiday vs ACC
Las Vegas vs SEC
Sun vs ACC
LA vs MWC
Independence vs Big 12

Here is how the old PAC-12 line up, with Sagarin ranking, current record and projected final record with likely bowl:

#3 Oregon 8-0 > 12-0 CFP
#46 WSU 7-1 > 11-1 Alamo, Holiday or Vegas
#22 Colorado 6-2 > 10-2 Vegas or Holiday
#20 USC 4-4 > 7-5 Holiday, Alamo or Vegas
#36 Cal 4-4 > 7-5 LA
#53 ASU 5-2 > 7-5 Sun
#85 OSU 4-4 > 6-6 Independence

#44 Utah 4-4 >5-7
#52 UW 4-4 > 5-7
#65 UA 3-5 > 4-8
#66 UCLA 2-5 > 3-9
#104 Furd 2-6 > 2-10

I was hoping for Vegas, but I think WSU, Colorado and USC get the top 3 bowls and we end up in LA playing UNLV unless UW or Utah can get to 6-6, then maybe they bump us to Shreveport again.

---

I hope the Bears are not reading this post. We are not good enough to be focusing on choosing which bowl we WILL qualify for.

The Oregon State game was great for the team's morale. But the final score vs Wake Forest should not give us an inflated sense of how Cal will do over the final 3 games of the season

With a few minutes to go in Saturday's game, Cal's 15-point lead had been whittled down to a 3-point lead. WF had the ball and it looked to me that Cal was about to lose another nail-biter.

I am thankful that 1. the Defense came up with Two take aways and 2. The offense finally found a way to keep a drive alive when it needed it most.

But I for one am far from certain that Cal has finally learned how to WIN in the closing minutes of a close game.

Maybe Cal has Or maybe Cal was just lucky.

---

According to SP predictor, Cal has a 1.8% chance of not being bowl eligible.

We have defied odds before, but this may be even beyond our bears.

Update

The old PAC-12 will be competing for PAC-12 bowl tie ins (in picking order):

Alamo vs Big 12
Holiday vs ACC
Las Vegas vs SEC
Sun vs ACC
LA vs MWC
Independence vs Big 12

Here is how the old PAC-12 line up, with Sagarin ranking, current record and projected final record with likely bowl:

#7 Oregon 10-0 > 12-0 CFP
#47 WSU 8-1 > 11-1 Alamo, Holiday or Vegas
#20 Colorado 7-2 > 10-2 Vegas or Holiday
#24 USC 4-5> 7-5 Holiday, Alamo or Vegas
#33 ASU 7-2 > 8-3 Sun
#41 Cal 5-4 > 7-5 LA
#52 UW 5-5 > 6-6
#54 UCLA 4-5 > 5-7

#92 OSU 4-5 > 5-7
#39 Utah 4-5 > 5-7
#78 UA 3-6 > 4-8
#112 Furd 2-6 > 2-10

It looks like the big determining factor will be who of USC, UW and UCLA become bowl eligible. We are best off it is only one (or none).
Their remaining schedules:

USC v Nebraska, v UCLA and v Notre Dame
UW v UCLA, v Oregon
UCLA v UW, v USC and v FSU

So obviously root for Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oregon and FSU.

If the above holds and UCLA beats UW but loses to USC, all three finish 5-7. Any deviation from that and at least one will be bowl eligible and could jump us in bowl selection.

Most likely two will be eligible (as shown above) and it is possible that all three will be eligible which could give us trouble unless we win out and get the big upset at SMU. Of course, Syracuse is the first step and would be our first win over an FBS team with a winning record so let's see how that goes.

I know Wilner isn't popular on this site but for most of the year he's got us in the LA Bowl.

FSU has completely fallen apart, no way they win another game this season

DoubtfulBear said:

---

FSU has completely fallen apart, no way they win another game this season

---

They are playing FCS Charleston Southern next week, probably they will get that one.

sycasey said:

---

DoubtfulBear said:

---

FSU has completely fallen apart, no way they win another game this season

---

They are playing FCS Charleston Southern next week, probably they will get that one.

---

charleston is sadly as bad at fcs as fsu is at fbs.

davis would probably destroy fsu. what a world that would be...

DoubtfulBear said:

---

FSU has completely fallen apart, no way they win another game this season

---

UCLA is playing the FSU from Fresno, not the one from Tallahassee.

socaliganbear said:

---

Would love to check out the bowl. For that reason, I hope it's not the Sun. Irrelevant bowl and poor location make for bleh trip.

---

El Paso is a dump but has amazing food

Fire Starkey said:

---

socaliganbear said:

---

Would love to check out the bowl. For that reason, I hope it's not the Sun. Irrelevant bowl and poor location make for bleh trip.

---

El Paso is a dump but has amazing food

---

Already had the Shreveport experience. That was crazy enough. What happens in Shreveport stays in Shreveport. So I think I'll pass on El Paso.

oskidunker said:

---

mbBear said:

---

oskidunker said:

---

calumnus said:

---

Strykur said:

---

SC is at #25 while sporting a 4-5 record, alright well a bowl committee will not care if SC is top-25 in Sagarin predictor if they finish with a losing season

---

If they finish with a losing record USC isn't going anywhere (unless Oregon, Colorado and WSU make the playoffs and we don't have enough eligible teams). If USC finishes 6-6 I would not count on Vegas or Holiday picking a 7-5 Cal over them.

---

Shades of 1975

---

Cal would have gone to a good bowl if that was allowed in '75!

---

Liberty Bowl took usc who had a worse record than us, and we beat them.

---

C'mon, oski, you know the game. They show up wherever they play in massive numbers and with a full band for someone's entertainment (certainly not mine). And now why does a bowl pick them yearly over a better qualified foe??

ducky23 said:

---

Fire Starkey said:

---

socaliganbear said:

---

Would love to check out the bowl. For that reason, I hope it's not the Sun. Irrelevant bowl and poor location make for bleh trip.

---

El Paso is a dump but has amazing food

---

Already had the Shreveport experience. That was crazy enough. What happens in Shreveport stays in Shreveport. So I think I'll pass on El Paso.

---

Shreveport sucked. El Paso also sucks but the food is much better AND our beloved Golden Bears will be competing for victory!

ducky23 said:

---

GivemTheAxe said:

---

calumnus said:

---

This was in another thread but I think it deserves its own. The old PAC-12 will be competing for PAC-12 bowl tie ins (in picking order):

Alamo vs Big 12
Holiday vs ACC
Las Vegas vs SEC
Sun vs ACC
LA vs MWC
Independence vs Big 12

Here is how the old PAC-12 line up, with Sagarin ranking, current record and projected final record with likely bowl:

#3 Oregon 8-0 > 12-0 CFP
#46 WSU 7-1 > 11-1 Alamo, Holiday or Vegas
#22 Colorado 6-2 > 10-2 Vegas or Holiday
#20 USC 4-4 > 7-5 Holiday, Alamo or Vegas
#36 Cal 4-4 > 7-5 LA
#53 ASU 5-2 > 7-5 Sun
#85 OSU 4-4 > 6-6 Independence

#44 Utah 4-4 >5-7
#52 UW 4-4 > 5-7
#65 UA 3-5 > 4-8
#66 UCLA 2-5 > 3-9
#104 Furd 2-6 > 2-10

I was hoping for Vegas, but I think WSU, Colorado and USC get the top 3 bowls and we end up in LA playing UNLV unless UW or Utah can get to 6-6, then maybe they bump us to Shreveport again.

---

I hope the Bears are not reading this post. We are not good enough to be focusing on choosing which bowl we WILL qualify for.

The Oregon State game was great for the team's morale. But the final score vs Wake Forest should not give us an inflated sense of how Cal will do over the final 3 games of the season

With a few minutes to go in Saturday's game, Cal's 15-point lead had been whittled down to a 3-point lead. WF had the ball and it looked to me that Cal was about to lose another nail-biter.

I am thankful that 1. the Defense came up with Two take aways and 2. The offense finally found a way to keep a drive alive when it needed it most.

But I for one am far from certain that Cal has finally learned how to WIN in the closing minutes of a close game.

Maybe Cal has Or maybe Cal was just lucky.

---

According to SP predictor, Cal has a 1.8% chance of not being bowl eligible.

We have defied odds before, but this may be even beyond our bears.

---

there are no odds that our sturdy golden bears cannot overcome!

At 6-6, Shreveport is not even a sure thing

ducky23 said:

---

72CalBear said:

---

As much as we fans have fun speculating on just about everything (which often makes me smile), I would rather let the season move along one game at a time. Especially will feel different if we get a win this week vs Syracuse. That is not a given, and certainly I don't care how "bad" Stanfurd is supposed to be, Big Game is just too crazy to predict. And who knows, we could beat SMU!!

---

I get that. Personally for me though, I like gaming out the scenarios for two different reasons.

First, it gives me a rooting interest in the other games. I know exactly who I need to root for.

Second, the holidays are a busy time. It's often not that easy to just drop everything and head to Shreveport. So I like to have an idea of where we're headed. For example, I've already scheduled a family trip to vegas, so I'm gojng to be there whether cal makes it there or not. I've also blocked off the time during the LA bowl, just in case Cal makes it there. If I plan ahead, it's much easier

---

DoubtfulBear said:

---

ducky23 said:

---

GivemTheAxe said:

---

calumnus said:

---

This was in another thread but I think it deserves its own. The old PAC-12 will be competing for PAC-12 bowl tie ins (in picking order):

Alamo vs Big 12
Holiday vs ACC
Las Vegas vs SEC
Sun vs ACC
LA vs MWC
Independence vs Big 12

Here is how the old PAC-12 line up, with Sagarin ranking, current record and projected final record with likely bowl:

#3 Oregon 8-0 > 12-0 CFP
#46 WSU 7-1 > 11-1 Alamo, Holiday or Vegas
#22 Colorado 6-2 > 10-2 Vegas or Holiday
#20 USC 4-4 > 7-5 Holiday, Alamo or Vegas
#36 Cal 4-4 > 7-5 LA
#53 ASU 5-2 > 7-5 Sun
#85 OSU 4-4 > 6-6 Independence

#44 Utah 4-4 >5-7
#52 UW 4-4 > 5-7
#65 UA 3-5 > 4-8
#66 UCLA 2-5 > 3-9
#104 Furd 2-6 > 2-10

I was hoping for Vegas, but I think WSU, Colorado and USC get the top 3 bowls and we end up in LA playing UNLV unless UW or Utah can get to 6-6, then maybe they bump us to Shreveport again.

---

I hope the Bears are not reading this post. We are not good enough to be focusing on choosing which bowl we WILL qualify for.

The Oregon State game was great for the team's morale. But the final score vs Wake Forest should not give us an inflated sense of how Cal will do over the final 3 games of the season

With a few minutes to go in Saturday's game, Cal's 15-point lead had been whittled down to a 3-point lead. WF had the ball and it looked to me that Cal was about to lose another nail-biter.

I am thankful that 1. the Defense came up with Two take aways and 2. The offense finally found a way to keep a drive alive when it needed it most.

But I for one am far from certain that Cal has finally learned how to WIN in the closing minutes of a close game.

Maybe Cal has Or maybe Cal was just lucky.

---

According to SP predictor, Cal has a 1.8% chance of not being bowl eligible.

We have defied odds before, but this may be even beyond our bears.

---

there are no odds that our sturdy golden bears cannot overcome!

---

When he posted that I thought "I would take that action" ( if I ever bet on, especially against the Beats). Chances should have been well over 10% and are closer to 40% now.

There is only one reason I would support Cal going to a bowl this year after the way they have let their fans down and that is they get a couple of weeks of added practice to get better for next year. This year just ended close but after today in a disaster.

Strykur said:

---

At 6-6, Shreveport is not even a sure thing

---

Right now, 6-6 is far from a sure thing.

Oh, but it is not too far away from another armpit of the southwest!! Las Cruces is only about 45 minutes away!!

OdontoBear66 said:

---

There is only one reason I would support Cal going to a bowl this year after the way they have let their fans down and that is they get a couple of weeks of added practice to get better for next year. This year just ended close but after today in a disaster.

---

I don't think December practices have much impact on the next year, but it is good to be practicing for a bowl when recruits visit campus and LA Bowl would be good for bringing SoCal recruits to as well.