Top Remaining Spring Portal WR Mark Hamper Commits to Cal From Wisconsin

20 yds/catch is the benchmark for a hs recruit, let alone a college player. Hamper has speed. Looks like he's got the body to block well, too.

bearsandgiants said:

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This is shaping up to be a well balanced team that has improved remarkably at every area of need, and is at least close to the level we had before, everywhere else. If you could have one more year with last year's remaining eligible players vs what we have now, I'd probably pick what we have now. Exciting. The oline especially.

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"So you're saying we have a chance?"

Rushinbear said:

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20 yds/catch is the benchmark for a hs recruit, let alone a college player. Hamper has speed. Looks like he's got the body to block well, too.

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Cefalo appears to be having a positive effect on the new recruits. Kudos to Coach Cef.

GivemTheAxe said:

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Rushinbear said:

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20 yds/catch is the benchmark for a hs recruit, let alone a college player. Hamper has speed. Looks like he's got the body to block well, too.

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Cefalo appears to be having a positive effect on the new recruits. Kudos to Coach Cef.

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Cefalo has coached some very productive players. And players of different body types and styles. He had Deven Thompkins a short but super quick player. His final season at Utah St he had 102 catches for 1704 yds. He knows how to use these small smurf type players to great effect. DeJesus and the other transfer Adams are similar to Thompkins.

He also coached Jalen Royals at Utah St. Just drafted by the KC Chiefs. He was mostly an athlete playing football before Utah St. He blossomed under Cefalo. Was very productive and is built very similarly to Mark Hamper.

Thompkins also made the NFL with Carolina. Though mostly as a KR/PR.

Cefalo has a history of improving players. Cal has some guys with ability at WR. There is some real development that needs to be had. The development under Toler did not occur as hoped. I think Cefalo has a nice group to work with. This group if they stay healthy and buy in has a chance.

6956bear said:

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Hamper plays with a bit of attitude and swagger that I like. He is a strong player, runs well and will make the tough catch.

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The coaches have very high expectations for Hamper

calumnus said:

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6956bear said:

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GivemTheAxe said:

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Rushinbear said:

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20 yds/catch is the benchmark for a hs recruit, let alone a college player. Hamper has speed. Looks like he's got the body to block well, too.

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Cefalo appears to be having a positive effect on the new recruits. Kudos to Coach Cef.

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Cefalo has coached some very productive players. And players of different body types and styles. He had Deven Thompkins a short but super quick player. His final season at Utah St he had 102 catches for 1704 yds. He knows how to use these small smurf type players to great effect. DeJesus and the other transfer Adams are similar to Thompkins.

He also coached Jalen Royals at Utah St. Just drafted by the KC Chiefs. He was mostly an athlete playing football before Utah St. He blossomed under Cefalo. Was very productive and is built very similarly to Mark Hamper.

Thompkins also made the NFL with Carolina. Though mostly as a KR/PR.

Cefalo has a history of improving players. Cal has some guys with ability at WR. There is some real development that needs to be had. The development under Toler did not occur as hoped. I think Cefalo has a nice group to work with. This group if they stay healthy and buy in has a chance.

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I thought Burl did a great job recruiting and developing young WR talent considering how bad our offenses have been. Year after year our best WR was usually a freshman or redshirt freshman. The problem is we would usually lose them in the transfer portal to better programs. Our best offensive positions under Wilcox, both in recruiting and results, have been WR and RB. Other than Garbers, the only only offensive players to make NFL rosters or practice squads under Wilcox were players coached by Toler and he did get players drafted elsewhere. I hope Cefalo is as good or better, but Toler is a great Cal Bear from a great Cal Bear family. No need to denigrate him to pump the new guy.

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I think it is fair to point out the development of the WR room has fallen short of hopes and expectations. Yes the offense has been below average overall. Burl is a really good man and yes a terrific former Golden Bear from a terrific Cal family.

But the performance has to be there. This is a performance business. The performance fell short and the new OC wanted a different group. Cefalo has a recent track record that suggests he may improve performance from the group. That is what is needed.

This was a performance move. The former group of offensive staffers fell short. Does not in any way denigrate them personally,. Coaches move around all the time and Burl landed on his feet. But the offense was flat again and it was time to change the direction, messages and hopefully performance.

Burl was not the only staffer that has moved on. Only Saffell (another great Bear) remains. I think the decision to make changes was solid. These coaches have to be judged on performance not school and family affiliiations. Nor how wonderful they may be as humans. I have worked with an enormous number of truly fine people over the years that did not get the performance required from their groups.

The measure has to be performance.

Burl Toler and the entire Toler family are Cal royalty. Burl will be a HC some day. He has all the skills.

6956bear said:

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I think it is fair to point out the development of the WR room has fallen short of hopes and expectations. Yes the offense has been below average overall. Burl is a really good man and yes a terrific former Golden Bear from a terrific Cal family.

But the performance has to be there. This is a performance business. The performance fell short and the new OC wanted a different group. Cefalo has a recent track record that suggests he may improve performance from the group. That is what is needed.

This was a performance move. The former group of offensive staffers fell short. Does not in any way denigrate them personally,. Coaches move around all the time and Burl landed on his feet. But the offense was flat again and it was time to change the direction, messages and hopefully performance.

Burl was not the only staffer that has moved on. Only Saffell (another great Bear) remains. I think the decision to make changes was solid. These coaches have to be judged on performance not school and family affiliiations. Nor how wonderful they may be as humans. I have worked with an enormous number of truly fine people over the years that did not get the performance required from their groups.

The measure has to be performance.

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Right on! Wilcox is the only one who gets a free pass and doesn't get judged by his performance.

Golden One said:

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6956bear said:

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I think it is fair to point out the development of the WR room has fallen short of hopes and expectations. Yes the offense has been below average overall. Burl is a really good man and yes a terrific former Golden Bear from a terrific Cal family.

But the performance has to be there. This is a performance business. The performance fell short and the new OC wanted a different group. Cefalo has a recent track record that suggests he may improve performance from the group. That is what is needed.

This was a performance move. The former group of offensive staffers fell short. Does not in any way denigrate them personally,. Coaches move around all the time and Burl landed on his feet. But the offense was flat again and it was time to change the direction, messages and hopefully performance.

Burl was not the only staffer that has moved on. Only Saffell (another great Bear) remains. I think the decision to make changes was solid. These coaches have to be judged on performance not school and family affiliiations. Nor how wonderful they may be as humans. I have worked with an enormous number of truly fine people over the years that did not get the performance required from their groups.

The measure has to be performance.

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Right on! Wilcox is the only one who gets a free pass and doesn't get judged by his performance.

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Wilcox is only here because of the buyout. I wanted him fired when they decided to extend and then fully guarantee his buyout. His performance has been abysmal against peer programs.

But since he was not fired due to the buyout the next best thing was done. Remove the low performers elsewhere and bring aboard an accomplished football man in Rivera. Hopefully that is enough to move the program forward for 2025.

Wilcox gets no free pass from me, but Knowlton's foolish decision to guarantee him fully left Cal with little else to do but move forward with other changes. I am hopeful that with Rivera here and Lyons taking over for Carol Christ if Cal experiences another disappointing season it will mean the end of the Justin Wilcox tenure.

IMO anything less than 8 wins should end this. Really I believe the bar should be 9 or more wins, but I think 8-4 and a bowl keeps him around.

calumnus said:

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6956bear said:

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Golden One said:

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6956bear said:

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I think it is fair to point out the development of the WR room has fallen short of hopes and expectations. Yes the offense has been below average overall. Burl is a really good man and yes a terrific former Golden Bear from a terrific Cal family.

But the performance has to be there. This is a performance business. The performance fell short and the new OC wanted a different group. Cefalo has a recent track record that suggests he may improve performance from the group. That is what is needed.

This was a performance move. The former group of offensive staffers fell short. Does not in any way denigrate them personally,. Coaches move around all the time and Burl landed on his feet. But the offense was flat again and it was time to change the direction, messages and hopefully performance.

Burl was not the only staffer that has moved on. Only Saffell (another great Bear) remains. I think the decision to make changes was solid. These coaches have to be judged on performance not school and family affiliiations. Nor how wonderful they may be as humans. I have worked with an enormous number of truly fine people over the years that did not get the performance required from their groups.

The measure has to be performance.

---

Right on! Wilcox is the only one who gets a free pass and doesn't get judged by his performance.

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Wilcox is only here because of the buyout. I wanted him fired when they decided to extend and then fully guarantee his buyout. His performance has been abysmal against peer programs.

But since he was not fired due to the buyout the next best thing was done. Remove the low performers elsewhere and bring aboard an accomplished football man in Rivera. Hopefully that is enough to move the program forward for 2025.

Wilcox gets no free pass from me, but Knowlton's foolish decision to guarantee him fully left Cal with little else to do but move forward with other changes. I am hopeful that with Rivera here and Lyons taking over for Carol Christ if Cal experiences another disappointing season it will mean the end of the Justin Wilcox tenure.

IMO anything less than 8 wins should end this. Really I believe the bar should be 9 or more wins, but I think 8-4 and a bowl keeps him around.

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Explain why Browning has tenure as DL coach? We have been MUCH better at recruiting and putting talented WRs on the field. DL has been a disaster, as bad as our OL under Wilcox. Saffel is one of the best from that group, another loyal Bear, but in what way did the performance of our OL last year exceed that of our young WRs?

Again, Toler was our best recruiter and as recruiting coordinator that affected more than just the WR position. A very smart (former Cal walk-on) from Berkeley who played on the great 2004 team and whose family, starting with his grandfather, made history. He is someone a smart Cal program would be developing and promoting as a future head coach, not casting aside so they can bring in a guy from Utah State.

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Agree on Browning. His players show no development year over year and his recruiting has not been stellar. Saffell actually is the TE coach despite him being an OL as a player. TE was one of the better performing units and he was in year 1 as a position coach.

We agree regarding Toler the person. But I did not see a lot of development out of that room year over year. His recruiting was considered a plus, but that is part of why the lack of development is a concern. Supposedly had good talent yet the players had trouble getting separation, did not block and getting off press coverage was problematic. Most of those things are technique driven.

Cefalo has shown an ability to develop players. Players that were not highly recruited. He also has worked with Harsin before which is likely a key reason he is here now. Harsin wanted to bring in his own staff.

Burl is a good man. But the team needed change. His unit performed below expectations and the blocking failures were there for all to see. If he was not a Cal man from a great Cal family I suspect few would be bemoaning his departure.

calumnus said:

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6956bear said:

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Golden One said:

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6956bear said:

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I think it is fair to point out the development of the WR room has fallen short of hopes and expectations. Yes the offense has been below average overall. Burl is a really good man and yes a terrific former Golden Bear from a terrific Cal family.

But the performance has to be there. This is a performance business. The performance fell short and the new OC wanted a different group. Cefalo has a recent track record that suggests he may improve performance from the group. That is what is needed.

This was a performance move. The former group of offensive staffers fell short. Does not in any way denigrate them personally,. Coaches move around all the time and Burl landed on his feet. But the offense was flat again and it was time to change the direction, messages and hopefully performance.

Burl was not the only staffer that has moved on. Only Saffell (another great Bear) remains. I think the decision to make changes was solid. These coaches have to be judged on performance not school and family affiliiations. Nor how wonderful they may be as humans. I have worked with an enormous number of truly fine people over the years that did not get the performance required from their groups.

The measure has to be performance.

---

Right on! Wilcox is the only one who gets a free pass and doesn't get judged by his performance.

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Wilcox is only here because of the buyout. I wanted him fired when they decided to extend and then fully guarantee his buyout. His performance has been abysmal against peer programs.

But since he was not fired due to the buyout the next best thing was done. Remove the low performers elsewhere and bring aboard an accomplished football man in Rivera. Hopefully that is enough to move the program forward for 2025.

Wilcox gets no free pass from me, but Knowlton's foolish decision to guarantee him fully left Cal with little else to do but move forward with other changes. I am hopeful that with Rivera here and Lyons taking over for Carol Christ if Cal experiences another disappointing season it will mean the end of the Justin Wilcox tenure.

IMO anything less than 8 wins should end this. Really I believe the bar should be 9 or more wins, but I think 8-4 and a bowl keeps him around.

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The payout of the contract does not require a lump sum acceleration payment if he is fired. It just guarantees his payments for each year. That is a sunk cost. We do not "save money" by having him continue to coach vs not coach. The additional cost is only the cost of the new coach that we would pay while we are still paying Wilcox.

That is why when it looked like Ron Rivera would be fired from the Commanders in December 2023, some of us advocated for Cal to contact him and see if he would be willing to come to Cal with his payments largely deferred until we are done paying off Wilcox. We were told "there was no way in hell" he would come to Cal and work for less than he could make in the NFL. Some are persisting in that, calling the idea that Rivera might have been/be willing to coach the Bears "Fantasyland" even though he is actually at Cal now, working for far less, with no promise of future payments. Just out of his love for Cal.

In economics there is also something called "opportunity cost." Cal had a huge opportunity our first year in the ACC with a historically easy schedule. This year is a second opportunity. We had an opportunity to bring in Rivera direct from the NFL and make a splash. We have squandered that opportunity by sticking with Wilcox and spending a lot of money trying to prop him up.

So what is the scenario now? If he wins 8 we keep him? We go into year 10 with only one year on his contract? Or do we extend him? Say we don't extend him and he wins 8 again in year 10, do we fire him, extend him or let him coach the final year of his contract? Is the plan just to let Wilcox play out his contract no matter what as long as he wins "enough" or is the plan to hope Wilcox becomes a good coach so we can extend him? Because neither seems like a smart bet given the stakes.

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No the buyout is not a lump sum. But it is a cost. And there are costs around new staff and possible buyouts of Cal assistants and securing a new coach. The idea that it is a sunk cost is true, but someone still has to pay it. This point has been mentioned many times. The appetite among the donors to pay off Wilcox (who still has 3 or 4 seasons remaining) was not there. Not just because of the cost but also who would be leading the search for a new HC. The $5M is an annual cost not a one time cost. Are you willing to pay it?
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Rivera did want to look for an opportunity in the NFL. When one did not materialize he then became open to working here. The job he has here is perhaps the best thing for Ron and Cal. He can influence Wilcox while doing the work needed behind the scenes to get the program on good footing. Could Ron take over the program if Wilcox fails again? Possibly. My guess is he would want to be paid more and would like many of the obstacles removed before he decides to sit in that seat. What he is doing now for Cal IMO is where he is best suited. For now. Would he move on Wilcox? He has a front row seat to view things.

The lost "opportunity" of 2024 is very troubling. The program had a chance to make a great first impression and a greater national impact. They stumbled again. Now they are heading into year 2 in the ACC and the expectations are another poor season. And yes they are spending on staff is an unprecedented fashion. There are a number of new staffers. Though some like Keith Heyward and Bob Gregory have been here before.

I am concerned regarding Wilcox's continued employment. I do not believe he is a strong manager. He may be a strong DC. His hiring has been weak, he has held assistants too long and his game management is awful. He also is very invisible in a world where many of his cohorts are very visible. So what to do? I would be working the donors really hard for a buyout fund. Under no circumstances would I entertain an extension.

Wilcox will be here in 2025. But his leash should be really short. Some of the concerns regarding paying off Wilcox have been lessened. There is a new Chancellor that is at least somewhat football friendly. Ron Rivera is here running the football operations. There is at least a reasonable hope that the new leadership would be able to attract a good candidate group if the position becomes available. And that includes Ron Rivera though I would prefer he stay in his current role.

I think the program needs and deserves new leadership. Wilcox is not that guy. Never has been IMO. So Rivera gets to observe first hand and make an evaluation. I suspect if the season starts to go sidewise he may make a move. Try and get Justin to agree to a settlement and leave. There are a couple of former HCs on staff. I know many are wary of both for different reasons. But both have had some success in the past. Rivera will get to see both up close and make his own determinations. Ron has a deep rolodex of football people he trusts that can help steer him towards a replacement as well.

Rivera was hired to fix football. All apsects. For now I will trust that he and the Chancellor are aligned in that regard. JMO but I think 2025 is the last season of Wilcox. 2025 once again has a historically light schedule. Lighter on paper than 2024. The team needs to win. But even if they do I think it is very likely they move to change the football HC.

Jim Knowlton and Carol Christ are not the decision makers in football any longer. That is huge. Rivera is in charge. He knows football. He wants to win. I believe very strongly that the leash on Wilcox is as short as it has ever been. The pressure on Wilcox is enormous. He knows who is sitting in the GM seat.

calumnus said:

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6956bear said:

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calumnus said:

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6956bear said:

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Golden One said:

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6956bear said:

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I think it is fair to point out the development of the WR room has fallen short of hopes and expectations. Yes the offense has been below average overall. Burl is a really good man and yes a terrific former Golden Bear from a terrific Cal family.

But the performance has to be there. This is a performance business. The performance fell short and the new OC wanted a different group. Cefalo has a recent track record that suggests he may improve performance from the group. That is what is needed.

This was a performance move. The former group of offensive staffers fell short. Does not in any way denigrate them personally,. Coaches move around all the time and Burl landed on his feet. But the offense was flat again and it was time to change the direction, messages and hopefully performance.

Burl was not the only staffer that has moved on. Only Saffell (another great Bear) remains. I think the decision to make changes was solid. These coaches have to be judged on performance not school and family affiliiations. Nor how wonderful they may be as humans. I have worked with an enormous number of truly fine people over the years that did not get the performance required from their groups.

The measure has to be performance.

---

Right on! Wilcox is the only one who gets a free pass and doesn't get judged by his performance.

---

Wilcox is only here because of the buyout. I wanted him fired when they decided to extend and then fully guarantee his buyout. His performance has been abysmal against peer programs.

But since he was not fired due to the buyout the next best thing was done. Remove the low performers elsewhere and bring aboard an accomplished football man in Rivera. Hopefully that is enough to move the program forward for 2025.

Wilcox gets no free pass from me, but Knowlton's foolish decision to guarantee him fully left Cal with little else to do but move forward with other changes. I am hopeful that with Rivera here and Lyons taking over for Carol Christ if Cal experiences another disappointing season it will mean the end of the Justin Wilcox tenure.

IMO anything less than 8 wins should end this. Really I believe the bar should be 9 or more wins, but I think 8-4 and a bowl keeps him around.

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The payout of the contract does not require a lump sum acceleration payment if he is fired. It just guarantees his payments for each year. That is a sunk cost. We do not "save money" by having him continue to coach vs not coach. The additional cost is only the cost of the new coach that we would pay while we are still paying Wilcox.

That is why when it looked like Ron Rivera would be fired from the Commanders in December 2023, some of us advocated for Cal to contact him and see if he would be willing to come to Cal with his payments largely deferred until we are done paying off Wilcox. We were told "there was no way in hell" he would come to Cal and work for less than he could make in the NFL. Some are persisting in that, calling the idea that Rivera might have been/be willing to coach the Bears "Fantasyland" even though he is actually at Cal now, working for far less, with no promise of future payments. Just out of his love for Cal.

In economics there is also something called "opportunity cost." Cal had a huge opportunity our first year in the ACC with a historically easy schedule. This year is a second opportunity. We had an opportunity to bring in Rivera direct from the NFL and make a splash. We have squandered that opportunity by sticking with Wilcox and spending a lot of money trying to prop him up.

So what is the scenario now? If he wins 8 we keep him? We go into year 10 with only one year on his contract? Or do we extend him? Say we don't extend him and he wins 8 again in year 10, do we fire him, extend him or let him coach the final year of his contract? Is the plan just to let Wilcox play out his contract no matter what as long as he wins "enough" or is the plan to hope Wilcox becomes a good coach so we can extend him? Because neither seems like a smart bet given the stakes.

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No the buyout is not a lump sum. But it is a cost. And there are costs around new staff and possible buyouts of Cal assistants and securing a new coach. The idea that it is a sunk cost is true, but someone still has to pay it. This point has been mentioned many times. The appetite among the donors to pay off Wilcox (who still has 3 or 4 seasons remaining) was not there. Not just because of the cost but also who would be leading the search for a new HC. The $5M is an annual cost not a one time cost. Are you willing to pay it?
.
Rivera did want to look for an opportunity in the NFL. When one did not materialize he then became open to working here. The job he has here is perhaps the best thing for Ron and Cal. He can influence Wilcox while doing the work needed behind the scenes to get the program on good footing. Could Ron take over the program if Wilcox fails again? Possibly. My guess is he would want to be paid more and would like many of the obstacles removed before he decides to sit in that seat. What he is doing now for Cal IMO is where he is best suited. For now. Would he move on Wilcox? He has a front row seat to view things.

The lost "opportunity" of 2024 is very troubling. The program had a chance to make a great first impression and a greater national impact. They stumbled again. Now they are heading into year 2 in the ACC and the expectations are another poor season. And yes they are spending on staff is an unprecedented fashion. There are a number of new staffers. Though some like Keith Heyward and Bob Gregory have been here before.

I am concerned regarding Wilcox's continued employment. I do not believe he is a strong manager. He may be a strong DC. His hiring has been weak, he has held assistants too long and his game management is awful. He also is very invisible in a world where many of his cohorts are very visible. So what to do? I would be working the donors really hard for a buyout fund. Under no circumstances would I entertain an extension.

Wilcox will be here in 2025. But his leash should be really short. Some of the concerns regarding paying off Wilcox have been lessened. There is a new Chancellor that is at least somewhat football friendly. Ron Rivera is here running the football operations. There is at least a reasonable hope that the new leadership would be able to attract a good candidate group if the position becomes available. And that includes Ron Rivera though I would prefer he stay in his current role.

I think the program needs and deserves new leadership. Wilcox is not that guy. Never has been IMO. So Rivera gets to observe first hand and make an evaluation. I suspect if the season starts to go sidewise he may make a move. Try and get Justin to agree to a settlement and leave. There are a couple of former HCs on staff. I know many are wary of both for different reasons. But both have had some success in the past. Rivera will get to see both up close and make his own determinations. Ron has a deep rolodex of football people he trusts that can help steer him towards a replacement as well.

Rivera was hired to fix football. All apsects. For now I will trust that he and the Chancellor are aligned in that regard. JMO but I think 2025 is the last season of Wilcox. 2025 once again has a historically light schedule. Lighter on paper than 2024. The team needs to win. But even if they do I think it is very likely they move to change the football HC.

Jim Knowlton and Carol Christ are not the decision makers in football any longer. That is huge. Rivera is in charge. He knows football. He wants to win. I believe very strongly that the leash on Wilcox is as short as it has ever been. The pressure on Wilcox is enormous. He knows who is sitting in the GM seat.

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Good post. I still think that something else that was financially equivalent to what we did/are doing was entirely possible, but it is moot. We will never know. Just like we will never know if Christ and Knowlton pursuing the Big-10 with USC and UCLA's support from the beginning would have been a better strategy than sticking with Kliavkoff and trying to block UCLA and get Calimony turning them into adversaries. We will never know. We are where we are. The past cannot be changed. We have to make good decisions going forward.

I agree with your assessment of Wilcox and hope you are right about Ron's power and his and our willingness to make a change even if Wilcox produces x number of wins. I will be more encouraged if Knowlton is removed from the process altogether. If Ron does make a change I hope he either takes over (as "interim") or finds a young up and coming offensive minded coach that loves and gets Berkeley and will want to stay and grow our unique brand in the East Bay, California and nationally,

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UCLA was an Adversary to Cal joining the BIG10 from the start. They conspired with USC to keep their activities and intentions hidden so that they could put a fait accompli in front of the Board of Regents. Then argue that rejection of the plan would hurt UCLA. UCLA followed the ""It's better to ask for forgiveness than to ask for permission " approach to negotiations

The Regents were forced into a corner by UCLA and the Regents blinked. The Regents failed to fulfill their responsibilities to protect the interests of Cal and they looked out for the interests of UCLA alone. The appropriate response from the Regents should have been "No way is UCLA joining the Big 10 unless Cal also joins." The Regents had that power

Chancellor Christ did not have the ability to cooperate with UCLA in seeking admission to the BIG 10 because UCLA closed off that alternative by keeping its negotiations secret

^ that's not how free markets & capitalism works

if ucla can make a deal while the incompetent cal administration sleeps, that's their prerogative...do u really think christ & knowlton got the political savvy to make a deal for cal to the big 10??...honestly that's kinda delusional thinking

should berkeley not be allowed to join the acc unless uc davis is also invited??

cal's athletic department is refusing to make any financial cuts & the existential financial tsunami that is already at the doorsteps in berkeley is not gonna be without consequences

GivemTheAxe said:

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calumnus said:

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6956bear said:

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calumnus said:

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6956bear said:

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Golden One said:

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6956bear said:

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I think it is fair to point out the development of the WR room has fallen short of hopes and expectations. Yes the offense has been below average overall. Burl is a really good man and yes a terrific former Golden Bear from a terrific Cal family.

But the performance has to be there. This is a performance business. The performance fell short and the new OC wanted a different group. Cefalo has a recent track record that suggests he may improve performance from the group. That is what is needed.

This was a performance move. The former group of offensive staffers fell short. Does not in any way denigrate them personally,. Coaches move around all the time and Burl landed on his feet. But the offense was flat again and it was time to change the direction, messages and hopefully performance.

Burl was not the only staffer that has moved on. Only Saffell (another great Bear) remains. I think the decision to make changes was solid. These coaches have to be judged on performance not school and family affiliiations. Nor how wonderful they may be as humans. I have worked with an enormous number of truly fine people over the years that did not get the performance required from their groups.

The measure has to be performance.

---

Right on! Wilcox is the only one who gets a free pass and doesn't get judged by his performance.

---

Wilcox is only here because of the buyout. I wanted him fired when they decided to extend and then fully guarantee his buyout. His performance has been abysmal against peer programs.

But since he was not fired due to the buyout the next best thing was done. Remove the low performers elsewhere and bring aboard an accomplished football man in Rivera. Hopefully that is enough to move the program forward for 2025.

Wilcox gets no free pass from me, but Knowlton's foolish decision to guarantee him fully left Cal with little else to do but move forward with other changes. I am hopeful that with Rivera here and Lyons taking over for Carol Christ if Cal experiences another disappointing season it will mean the end of the Justin Wilcox tenure.

IMO anything less than 8 wins should end this. Really I believe the bar should be 9 or more wins, but I think 8-4 and a bowl keeps him around.

---

The payout of the contract does not require a lump sum acceleration payment if he is fired. It just guarantees his payments for each year. That is a sunk cost. We do not "save money" by having him continue to coach vs not coach. The additional cost is only the cost of the new coach that we would pay while we are still paying Wilcox.

That is why when it looked like Ron Rivera would be fired from the Commanders in December 2023, some of us advocated for Cal to contact him and see if he would be willing to come to Cal with his payments largely deferred until we are done paying off Wilcox. We were told "there was no way in hell" he would come to Cal and work for less than he could make in the NFL. Some are persisting in that, calling the idea that Rivera might have been/be willing to coach the Bears "Fantasyland" even though he is actually at Cal now, working for far less, with no promise of future payments. Just out of his love for Cal.

In economics there is also something called "opportunity cost." Cal had a huge opportunity our first year in the ACC with a historically easy schedule. This year is a second opportunity. We had an opportunity to bring in Rivera direct from the NFL and make a splash. We have squandered that opportunity by sticking with Wilcox and spending a lot of money trying to prop him up.

So what is the scenario now? If he wins 8 we keep him? We go into year 10 with only one year on his contract? Or do we extend him? Say we don't extend him and he wins 8 again in year 10, do we fire him, extend him or let him coach the final year of his contract? Is the plan just to let Wilcox play out his contract no matter what as long as he wins "enough" or is the plan to hope Wilcox becomes a good coach so we can extend him? Because neither seems like a smart bet given the stakes.

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No the buyout is not a lump sum. But it is a cost. And there are costs around new staff and possible buyouts of Cal assistants and securing a new coach. The idea that it is a sunk cost is true, but someone still has to pay it. This point has been mentioned many times. The appetite among the donors to pay off Wilcox (who still has 3 or 4 seasons remaining) was not there. Not just because of the cost but also who would be leading the search for a new HC. The $5M is an annual cost not a one time cost. Are you willing to pay it?
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Rivera did want to look for an opportunity in the NFL. When one did not materialize he then became open to working here. The job he has here is perhaps the best thing for Ron and Cal. He can influence Wilcox while doing the work needed behind the scenes to get the program on good footing. Could Ron take over the program if Wilcox fails again? Possibly. My guess is he would want to be paid more and would like many of the obstacles removed before he decides to sit in that seat. What he is doing now for Cal IMO is where he is best suited. For now. Would he move on Wilcox? He has a front row seat to view things.

The lost "opportunity" of 2024 is very troubling. The program had a chance to make a great first impression and a greater national impact. They stumbled again. Now they are heading into year 2 in the ACC and the expectations are another poor season. And yes they are spending on staff is an unprecedented fashion. There are a number of new staffers. Though some like Keith Heyward and Bob Gregory have been here before.

I am concerned regarding Wilcox's continued employment. I do not believe he is a strong manager. He may be a strong DC. His hiring has been weak, he has held assistants too long and his game management is awful. He also is very invisible in a world where many of his cohorts are very visible. So what to do? I would be working the donors really hard for a buyout fund. Under no circumstances would I entertain an extension.

Wilcox will be here in 2025. But his leash should be really short. Some of the concerns regarding paying off Wilcox have been lessened. There is a new Chancellor that is at least somewhat football friendly. Ron Rivera is here running the football operations. There is at least a reasonable hope that the new leadership would be able to attract a good candidate group if the position becomes available. And that includes Ron Rivera though I would prefer he stay in his current role.

I think the program needs and deserves new leadership. Wilcox is not that guy. Never has been IMO. So Rivera gets to observe first hand and make an evaluation. I suspect if the season starts to go sidewise he may make a move. Try and get Justin to agree to a settlement and leave. There are a couple of former HCs on staff. I know many are wary of both for different reasons. But both have had some success in the past. Rivera will get to see both up close and make his own determinations. Ron has a deep rolodex of football people he trusts that can help steer him towards a replacement as well.

Rivera was hired to fix football. All apsects. For now I will trust that he and the Chancellor are aligned in that regard. JMO but I think 2025 is the last season of Wilcox. 2025 once again has a historically light schedule. Lighter on paper than 2024. The team needs to win. But even if they do I think it is very likely they move to change the football HC.

Jim Knowlton and Carol Christ are not the decision makers in football any longer. That is huge. Rivera is in charge. He knows football. He wants to win. I believe very strongly that the leash on Wilcox is as short as it has ever been. The pressure on Wilcox is enormous. He knows who is sitting in the GM seat.

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Good post. I still think that something else that was financially equivalent to what we did/are doing was entirely possible, but it is moot. We will never know. Just like we will never know if Christ and Knowlton pursuing the Big-10 with USC and UCLA's support from the beginning would have been a better strategy than sticking with Kliavkoff and trying to block UCLA and get Calimony turning them into adversaries. We will never know. We are where we are. The past cannot be changed. We have to make good decisions going forward.

I agree with your assessment of Wilcox and hope you are right about Ron's power and his and our willingness to make a change even if Wilcox produces x number of wins. I will be more encouraged if Knowlton is removed from the process altogether. If Ron does make a change I hope he either takes over (as "interim") or finds a young up and coming offensive minded coach that loves and gets Berkeley and will want to stay and grow our unique brand in the East Bay, California and nationally,

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UCLA was an Adversary to Cal joining the BIG10 from the start. They conspired with USC to keep their activities and intentions hidden so that they could put a fait accompli in front of the Board of Regents. Then argue that rejection of the plan would hurt UCLA. UCLA followed the ""It's better to ask for forgiveness than to ask for permission " approach to negotiations

The Regents were forced into a corner by UCLA and the Regents blinked. The Regents failed to fulfill their responsibilities to protect the interests of Cal and they looked out for the interests of UCLA alone. The appropriate response from the Regents should have been "No way is UCLA joining the Big 10 unless Cal also joins." The Regents had that power

Chancellor Christ did not have the ability to cooperate with UCLA in seeking admission to the BIG 10 because UCLA closed off that alternative by keeping its negotiations secret

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The opportunity was AFTER UCLA and USC announced their departures, giving 1 year notice. The entire year before the PAC-10 broke up. Within a week of USC's and UCLA's announcement there were published reports that UW and Oregon were lobbying the Big-10 for admission despite the fact they were told their rivals WSU and OSU were not wanted.

The speculation was that the Big-10 would take at least two more Pac schools to ease USC and UCLA's travel burden and create a West Coast pod. The published rumor was that USC was very opposed to Oregon and wanted Cal and Stanford. Remember when the PAC-12 split into North and South? USC and UCLA pushed to have their annual games with Cal and Stanford continue. The annual "Weekender" trip to the Bay Area was a long tradition they wanted to retain.

The President of the Big-10 repeatedly mentioned Cal and Stanford as schools that fit the Big 10 profile. Clearly the Big-10 presidents preferred Cal and Stanford for the academic prestige. Plus the Bay Area is the next big West Coast market after LA, much bigger than Seattle or Portland and has much better air connections to the Midwest.

However, when USC and UCLA announced their departure, Carol Christ came out against it, saying the travel would be bad for student athletes, "particularly female athletes" (invoking TitleIX). She enlisted California governor Gavin Newsome to oppose it. Kliavkoff thought he could save the Pac-12 if he could keep UCLA and the LA market and add San Diego State and Carol Christ bought into that strategy 100%. She even brought Kliavkoff to the UC Regents meetings trying to block UCLA from leaving. Calimony was Plan B.

The real architect of USC and UCLA's departure to the Big-10 was Fox Sports President Mark Silverman a UCLA grad (Michigan MBA) who earlier in his career at Fox Sports created the Big 10 Network. He lives 10 minutes from UCLA's campus, has floor seats at Pauley Pavilion attends all their football games and is a major donor. My friends at UCLA say he was majorly pissed at Cal for trying to block UCLA at the Regents and getting the governor involved. Majorly pissed.

When Pac-10 negations with Fox and ESPN fell through and Kliavkoff started looking at streaming deals most of the other schools clearly started looking at or negotiating other options even while giving lip service to the PAC-10 so Kliavkoff could get the best alternative offer possible. Carol Christ later acknowledged that these other schools lied to her and had been making other deals which was shocking to her. Colorado announced their departure to the Big-12 ahead of tge meeting. Christ and Knowlton were all -in with Kliavkoff. When the fateful day arrived it was reported that three schools were prepared to sign Kliavkoff's streaming deal: WSU, OSU and Cal.

It was only after the Pac-12 collapsed and Oregon and UW were in the Big-10 that Christ and Knowlton sought admission to the Big-10. The report was that the Big-10 presidents wanted us, but Fox Sports (UCLA alum Silverman) flatly refused pay anything for us. The Big-10 presidents would have to pay us from their own earnings and they could not justify that.

Knowlton set up a meeting with the Mountain West in Colorado Springs. Christ and Knowlton considered shutting down the program. It was only through the efforts of Stanford, Notre Dame with the full support of ESPN that we got a partial share of the money ESPN is paying for our rights in the ACC.

Again, if Christ and Knowlton had, instead of trying to block UCLA, did what UW and Oregon did, lobbied the Big-10, but also flew down to LA to meet with UCLA, USC and Fox Sports, I am very confident we would be in the Big-10 today. Probably not at full share immediately, but we would have a deal similar to what UW and Oregon got. I am pretty confident, but we will never know.

Given the incompetence of Christ and Knowlton in the high stakes, cut throat world of realignment and essentially professional sports, we are very lucky we got an invite to the ACC, but we need to start acting smart and seizing our opportunities NOW. Bringing in Ron was the only move in the right direction I have seen so far, though the way we did it essentially wasted another year that we don't have to waste for "evaluation."

Excellent post @calumnus. Extreme hubris on the part of Christ to believe that Cal actually had the power vis a vis the Regents to block UCLA's move to the Big Ten. Cal does not have that kind of weight before the Regents and the UC system. She was delusional to think that it did.

UCLA was very astute to grab the Big Ten offer on the down low and then ask for forgiveness later, if such were to be necessary. If they had asked for permission, lengthy politics would have ensued, and UCLA's deal with the Big Ten might have collapsed. UCLA leadership looked out for UCLA, and that's what good organizations do. With Cal it's always the same thing: lack of astute leadership or lack of any leadership.


An aside: What is the status of the "Calimony"? I'm guessing that we receive little or nothing from that.

Another aside: I think our status in the ACC is very financially problematic. Little money for a long time and higher costs. How long will the central admin, given the absence of significant media payments from revenue sports, be willing and able to provide tens of millions annually to support our IA programs? I'm with the ever present Shocky1 with respect to the imminent financial abyss that the IA department is approaching. But, granted, the ACC was the best deal remaining.

Yes, the university, athletics especially, is headed towards a major financial cliff. It appears that rather than anticipating it and coming up with a plan for athletics we are going to just act like everything is fine and keep doing what we are doing hoping for a different result until the bottom drops out from under us. At least then we will be forced to take drastic action. Hopefully it won't be too late. The drastic action could be one that none of us want to see.

Pittstop said:

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6956bear said:

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calumnus said:

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6956bear said:

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Golden One said:

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6956bear said:

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I think it is fair to point out the development of the WR room has fallen short of hopes and expectations. Yes the offense has been below average overall. Burl is a really good man and yes a terrific former Golden Bear from a terrific Cal family.

But the performance has to be there. This is a performance business. The performance fell short and the new OC wanted a different group. Cefalo has a recent track record that suggests he may improve performance from the group. That is what is needed.

This was a performance move. The former group of offensive staffers fell short. Does not in any way denigrate them personally,. Coaches move around all the time and Burl landed on his feet. But the offense was flat again and it was time to change the direction, messages and hopefully performance.

Burl was not the only staffer that has moved on. Only Saffell (another great Bear) remains. I think the decision to make changes was solid. These coaches have to be judged on performance not school and family affiliiations. Nor how wonderful they may be as humans. I have worked with an enormous number of truly fine people over the years that did not get the performance required from their groups.

The measure has to be performance.

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Right on! Wilcox is the only one who gets a free pass and doesn't get judged by his performance.

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Wilcox is only here because of the buyout. I wanted him fired when they decided to extend and then fully guarantee his buyout. His performance has been abysmal against peer programs.

But since he was not fired due to the buyout the next best thing was done. Remove the low performers elsewhere and bring aboard an accomplished football man in Rivera. Hopefully that is enough to move the program forward for 2025.

Wilcox gets no free pass from me, but Knowlton's foolish decision to guarantee him fully left Cal with little else to do but move forward with other changes. I am hopeful that with Rivera here and Lyons taking over for Carol Christ if Cal experiences another disappointing season it will mean the end of the Justin Wilcox tenure.

IMO anything less than 8 wins should end this. Really I believe the bar should be 9 or more wins, but I think 8-4 and a bowl keeps him around.

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The payout of the contract does not require a lump sum acceleration payment if he is fired. It just guarantees his payments for each year. That is a sunk cost. We do not "save money" by having him continue to coach vs not coach. The additional cost is only the cost of the new coach that we would pay while we are still paying Wilcox.

That is why when it looked like Ron Rivera would be fired from the Commanders in December 2023, some of us advocated for Cal to contact him and see if he would be willing to come to Cal with his payments largely deferred until we are done paying off Wilcox. We were told "there was no way in hell" he would come to Cal and work for less than he could make in the NFL. Some are persisting in that, calling the idea that Rivera might have been/be willing to coach the Bears "Fantasyland" even though he is actually at Cal now, working for far less, with no promise of future payments. Just out of his love for Cal.

In economics there is also something called "opportunity cost." Cal had a huge opportunity our first year in the ACC with a historically easy schedule. This year is a second opportunity. We had an opportunity to bring in Rivera direct from the NFL and make a splash. We have squandered that opportunity by sticking with Wilcox and spending a lot of money trying to prop him up.

So what is the scenario now? If he wins 8 we keep him? We go into year 10 with only one year on his contract? Or do we extend him? Say we don't extend him and he wins 8 again in year 10, do we fire him, extend him or let him coach the final year of his contract? Is the plan just to let Wilcox play out his contract no matter what as long as he wins "enough" or is the plan to hope Wilcox becomes a good coach so we can extend him? Because neither seems like a smart bet given the stakes.

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No the buyout is not a lump sum. But it is a cost. And there are costs around new staff and possible buyouts of Cal assistants and securing a new coach. The idea that it is a sunk cost is true, but someone still has to pay it. This point has been mentioned many times. The appetite among the donors to pay off Wilcox (who still has 3 or 4 seasons remaining) was not there. Not just because of the cost but also who would be leading the search for a new HC. The $5M is an annual cost not a one time cost. Are you willing to pay it?
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Rivera did want to look for an opportunity in the NFL. When one did not materialize he then became open to working here. The job he has here is perhaps the best thing for Ron and Cal. He can influence Wilcox while doing the work needed behind the scenes to get the program on good footing. Could Ron take over the program if Wilcox fails again? Possibly. My guess is he would want to be paid more and would like many of the obstacles removed before he decides to sit in that seat. What he is doing now for Cal IMO is where he is best suited. For now. Would he move on Wilcox? He has a front row seat to view things.

The lost "opportunity" of 2024 is very troubling. The program had a chance to make a great first impression and a greater national impact. They stumbled again. Now they are heading into year 2 in the ACC and the expectations are another poor season. And yes they are spending on staff is an unprecedented fashion. There are a number of new staffers. Though some like Keith Heyward and Bob Gregory have been here before.

I am concerned regarding Wilcox's continued employment. I do not believe he is a strong manager. He may be a strong DC. His hiring has been weak, he has held assistants too long and his game management is awful. He also is very invisible in a world where many of his cohorts are very visible. So what to do? I would be working the donors really hard for a buyout fund. Under no circumstances would I entertain an extension.

Wilcox will be here in 2025. But his leash should be really short. Some of the concerns regarding paying off Wilcox have been lessened. There is a new Chancellor that is at least somewhat football friendly. Ron Rivera is here running the football operations. There is at least a reasonable hope that the new leadership would be able to attract a good candidate group if the position becomes available. And that includes Ron Rivera though I would prefer he stay in his current role.

I think the program needs and deserves new leadership. Wilcox is not that guy. Never has been IMO. So Rivera gets to observe first hand and make an evaluation. I suspect if the season starts to go sidewise he may make a move. Try and get Justin to agree to a settlement and leave. There are a couple of former HCs on staff. I know many are wary of both for different reasons. But both have had some success in the past. Rivera will get to see both up close and make his own determinations. Ron has a deep rolodex of football people he trusts that can help steer him towards a replacement as well.

Rivera was hired to fix football. All apsects. For now I will trust that he and the Chancellor are aligned in that regard. JMO but I think 2025 is the last season of Wilcox. 2025 once again has a historically light schedule. Lighter on paper than 2024. The team needs to win. But even if they do I think it is very likely they move to change the football HC.

Jim Knowlton and Carol Christ are not the decision makers in football any longer. That is huge. Rivera is in charge. He knows football. He wants to win. I believe very strongly that the leash on Wilcox is as short as it has ever been. The pressure on Wilcox is enormous. He knows who is sitting in the GM seat.

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Outstanding post. The only thing I would add - and your post actually implied as much - is that Ron, in his 13 [combined] seasons as an NFL HC, and as defacto GM of the Washingto Football Team (nee: Redskins) during the last two scandal plagued, s#!t show years of the Dan Snyder ownership regime, has both fired AND hired coaches and football staff and personnel on many occasions, as he deemed necessary. And he will be clear-eyed and pragmatic in his evaluation of JW in strict relation to his own high professional standards, principles and expectations, and vision for Cal football, and the product that JW puts on the on the field. "Likeability" will have nothing to do with his decision making when he decides that JW needs to be, 'ahem'... "moved on from". That decision will not be a new thing for him. It will not give Ron any pause, whatsoever, once he decides it is the best decision for Cal Football.

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The dynamics around the program are so much more different today than at any time I can really remember. The Chancellor made the move to install Ron Rivera as the GM. Then allowed him the authority to make changes, manage the football budget, etc. That is very far removed from the norm at Cal.

The football GM at most programs is hired by the HC. Reports to the HC and is responsible primarily for player personnel. More like a chief of staff rather than an actual GM. That is not the case here. Ron was hired by the Chancellor, reports to the Chancellor and regardless of whatever reporting lines exist Wilcox reports to Rivera. And Rivera as noted is not just a guy. He is an accomplished former player, coach, head coach and defacto NFL GM. He worked for a very dysfunctional owner. He knows what good organizations should look like. And perhaps more to the point what bad ones look like. And Cal is his alma mater. He is in the Cal HOF. He wants this to work. Wilcox's seat is beyond warm IMO.

Wilcox has a large staff that has undergone many significant changes. New S&C, new OC, new named co-DCs, new assistants, new special assistants and a few new recruiting player personnel types as well. Bryan Harsin is not just a new OC, he is a former HC. And depsite whatever happened at Auburn he has a prior track record of success. Rolovich is also a former HC. Has had some success as well. His departure at WSU is something that many here will decide makes him unqualified to coach at Cal. But he is a good football man that hopefully has both Wilcox's and Harsin's ear. Never before has Wilcox had this much former HC firepower on his staff, and that is not counting Rivera. Baldwin and Spavital were both HCs but both were lower level HCs and Spavital was a failure as a HC.

He brought back Bob Gregory and Keith Heyward on defense. Both have worked with Justin in the past. And both have been at Cal before. They left jobs elsewhere to be here. Ron knows about culture, organization, work ethic, pride and all the things that encompass good football teams. Leadership is not about standing on the biggest soap box and shouting. It is about doing the things needed. By voice, example, creating and upholding standards and accountability to staff, players and fans. But on field results have to matter as well.

Rivera understands the gig here. Get Cal relevant. Now. Not in 4 years. Now. There is no way he will sit back and watch Wilcox muddle around. This staff is easily the best he has had. The support is the best he has had. He now has a real football person running the show behind the scenes. And hopefully somebody to not just mentor or make suggestions, but push Justin, the staff and players. Ron has respect around the game. He knows what it takes. The urgency needs to be there. A little friction is not a bad thing.

I doubt he recommends Wilcox continues as HC if the team continues to play as they have. In fact if I am Justin Wilcox I would be strongly working towards a complete demolition of Oregon State. There is a new dynamic here. He better win. NOW.

Rushinbear said:

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calumnus said:

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Yes, the university, athletics especially, is headed towards a major financial cliff. It appears that rather than anticipating it and coming up with a plan for athletics we are going to just act like everything is fine and keep doing what we are doing hoping for a different result until the bottom drops out from under us. At least then we will be forced to take drastic action. Hopefully it won't be too late. The drastic action could be one that none of us want to see.

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People have been predicting this for years, both in athletics and in academia, but the sentiment has been "we'll tackle it when it happens, if it happens." Well, it's happening, all over. If we don't act now, our future will be decided for us. And, those who experience the consequences should have prepared for what they must have known would happen.

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Knowlton will be paid the $1.3 million per year through 2029 under his contract and Wilcox will be paid the $5 million per year through 2027 under his contract even if the program shuts down. They won't experience any consequences. They will either get other jobs or retire as wealthy men living in Colorado or Idaho.

It is Cal fans who will have to suffer the consequences.