Given that most of us are hoping for a transformational year, I can't help but think it will be highly unlikely if we start a freshman QB regardless of how highly touted he is.

So what examples are there of 1st year freshman QBs that, almost single handedly, accounted for their teams unexpected success that year.

Johnny Football? Anyone else in the recent past?

Trevor Lawrence ?

BearSD said:

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HearstMining said:

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Econ141 said:

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Given that most of us are hoping for a transformational year, I can't help but think it will be highly unlikely if we start a freshman QB regardless of how highly touted he is.

So what examples are there of 1st year freshman QBs that, almost single handedly, accounted for their teams unexpected success that year.

Johnny Football? Anyone else in the recent past?

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We might not start JKS in game 1, but I won't be surprised to see him play early. Cal's record with transfer QBs is pretty lousy over recent years: Mcllwain, Modster, Glover, Plummer, SJV, Finley, Rogers. All but Plummer were flame-outs.

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Davis Webb was not a flameout. He had the best season for a Cal QB other than Goff or Rodgers in the last 20-plus years.

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Webb came under the Sonny Dykes regime (and who, by the way, couldn't make the big play when it really counted like against SD State). My point was that, under Wilcox, Cal has been unable to identify QB transfers that were worth a rat's ass. But give yourself a gold star for finding an irrelevant exception to my statement.

Econ141 said:

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Given that most of us are hoping for a transformational year, I can't help but think it will be highly unlikely if we start a freshman QB regardless of how highly touted he is.

So what examples are there of 1st year freshman QBs that, almost single handedly, accounted for their teams unexpected success that year.

Johnny Football? Anyone else in the recent past?

---

I don't recall that Tua played much early but obviously he was ready by the end of the season making big plays for Bama. He seemed so polished that he overtook an already great QB Jalen Hurts. I know this is crazy but I see Tua comps for JKS. Same kind of lefty slinging arm talent. Penix Jr. is another one. Whether JKS plays a lot his first year, and depending on whether he continue to keep him since nothing in the NIL era is predictable, we're going to look back and see what a special player JKS was for us.

FT? (sorry)

smh said:

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FT? (sorry)

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full time

Goobear said:

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That is why you must play him FT by game 4-6. Guys like that will leave if they don't play..

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If you really believe (I do) that JKS is the superior talent and unlikely to stick around if he is not playing why wait til game 4 to play him FT?

If he is the better talent then go with it from game 1.

6956bear said:

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Goobear said:

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That is why you must play him FT by game 4-6. Guys like that will leave if they don't play..

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If you really believe (I do) that JKS is the superior talent and unlikely to stick around if he is not playing why wait til game 4 to play him FT?

If he is the better talent then go with it from game 1.

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You mean, if he wins the job.

I don't know that he will win the job outright by the first game, but if they're close, start Brown and work Jaron in or vice versa if it's Jaron slightly ahead on the 30th. Have the first game or two provide the in-game evidence. Then, go with it, unless further evidence downstream says different.

The coaches see things that we don't and know that their jobs are on the line with the decision.

Each game, we oughta go with the QB that the offensive staff thinks gives us the best chance to win that game.

Always. But this year more than ever.

Rushinbear said:

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6956bear said:

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Goobear said:

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That is why you must play him FT by game 4-6. Guys like that will leave if they don't play..

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If you really believe (I do) that JKS is the superior talent and unlikely to stick around if he is not playing why wait til game 4 to play him FT?

If he is the better talent then go with it from game 1.

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You mean, if he wins the job.

I don't know that he will win the job outright by the first game, but if they're close, start Brown and work Jaron in or vice versa if it's Jaron slightly ahead on the 30th. Have the first game or two provide the in-game evidence. Then, go with it, unless further evidence downstream says different.

The coaches see things that we don't and know that their jobs are on the line with the decision.

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PS does the OSU game really start at 7:30 am?

MiZery said:

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Trevor Lawrence ?

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You're on a Cal board and your first response to freshman quarterbacks is Trevor Lawrence? We're definitely in end of days time now.

Rosen from ucla ?

MiZery said:

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Rosen from ucla ?

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First year stats:

60.0%
3,670 yards
7.5 average
23 TDs
11 picks
134.3 rating

Would be pretty remarkable.

Econ141 said:

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Good one. Forgot about Tua.

Here is the list per Chat GPT - I used last 30 years and a frame of reference:


1. Jameis Winston Florida State (2013, Redshirt Freshman)

Impact: Led FSU to a 14-0 record and a BCS National Championship.

Stats: 4,057 yards, 40 TDs, 10 INTs; won the Heisman Trophy.

Significance: Dominant from the start, Winston elevated an already talented team to the pinnacle of college football.



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2. Trevor Lawrence Clemson (2018, True Freshman)

Impact: Took over as starter mid-season and led Clemson to an undefeated season and a National Championship.

Stats: 3,280 yards, 30 TDs, 4 INTs.

Signature Moment: Dismantled Alabama in the title game, 44-16, in one of the most dominant performances by a freshman QB ever.



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3. Johnny Manziel Texas A&M (2012, Redshirt Freshman)

Impact: Took the SEC by storm, beat #1 Alabama, and became the first freshman to win the Heisman Trophy.

Stats: 3,706 passing yards, 1,410 rushing yards, 47 total TDs.

Legacy: Electrified college football with his playmaking and swagger.



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4. Marcus Mariota Oregon (2012, Redshirt Freshman)

Impact: Led Oregon to a 12-1 season and a Fiesta Bowl win.

Stats: 2,677 yards, 32 total TDs.

Legacy: Set the stage for one of the most efficient and exciting college careers in recent memory.



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5. Sam Bradford Oklahoma (2007, Redshirt Freshman)

Impact: Led Oklahoma to an 11-3 record and Big 12 title.

Stats: 3,121 yards, 36 TDs, 8 INTs.

Significance: Quietly elite, he showed immediate command of a complex offense.

Honorable Mentions:

Michael Vick (1999, Redshirt Freshman Virginia Tech): Took VT to the BCS Championship Game with explosive dual-threat ability.

CJ Stroud (2021, Redshirt Freshman Ohio State): Massive offensive production, Heisman finalist.

Bo Nix (2019, True Freshman Auburn): Upset Oregon in his debut and beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl.

Caleb Williams (2021, True Freshman Oklahoma): Took over midseason and revived Oklahoma's season.

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Aside from Manziel, these are absurd examples that completely miss the point of the OP.

FSU was 12-2 the year before Crab Legs took over, and they're FSU.

Lawrence took over a team that had gone 12-2, 14-1, 14-1 the previous 3 years, including a natty in that run.

Oregon was a year removed from the natty loss(total bull****) to Auburn and was coming off back to back 12 win seasons when Mariota took the reigns.

Bradford took over after OU had seasons of 11-3, 8-4, 12-1, 12-2, 12-2, 11-2 and 13-0(champs).

Vince Ferragamo was a star freshman for Cal. Hated it when he transferred to Nebraska.

6956bear said:

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Econ141 said:

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Given that most of us are hoping for a transformational year, I can't help but think it will be highly unlikely if we start a freshman QB regardless of how highly touted he is.

So what examples are there of 1st year freshman QBs that, almost single handedly, accounted for their teams unexpected success that year.

Johnny Football? Anyone else in the recent past?

---

IMO if a transformational season occurs it will likely be due more to the OL becoming above average, the defense being better than expected, the kicking game becomes relaible, there are few significant injuries allowing key players to stay on the field and gameday coaching issues are reduced. And a few offensive skill players step up.

The schedule could play out to where the QB will not need to carry the team but simply make most of the available plays. If the team needs spectacular play from the QB to win games it likely will be another season of frustration.

But if there is a QB on the roster that can make the special plays it is likely JKS. He has the arm talent to make plays. Brown brings maturity but has little actual game experience.

Football is the ultimate team game. If Cal needs to depend on the QB for a breakthrough season it likely does not end well. What the QB cannot be is the reason they lose the games. This is where I think you have to trust Harsin and Rolovich. They are actual developers of the QB and coaches that have had real offensive success and productivity. But the QB will need to make some plays and avoid crippling mistakes.

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This is spot on. I also dont think it would be fair to put all the pressure on the QB spot to carry the team. That is why it will be important that our RBs step up to carry any drop off or inexperience we have in the QB position. Everyone is paying attention to the QB battle but I am starting to think the RB situation will be just as important to watch too. How do the new RBs fit in and who can be our RB1 or 2?

If JKS is the starter, then we have to ride with the ups and downs, knowing that in the big picture, he is getting good game time development for the long run.

panda said:

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6956bear said:

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Econ141 said:

---

Given that most of us are hoping for a transformational year, I can't help but think it will be highly unlikely if we start a freshman QB regardless of how highly touted he is.

So what examples are there of 1st year freshman QBs that, almost single handedly, accounted for their teams unexpected success that year.

Johnny Football? Anyone else in the recent past?

---

IMO if a transformational season occurs it will likely be due more to the OL becoming above average, the defense being better than expected, the kicking game becomes relaible, there are few significant injuries allowing key players to stay on the field and gameday coaching issues are reduced. And a few offensive skill players step up.

The schedule could play out to where the QB will not need to carry the team but simply make most of the available plays. If the team needs spectacular play from the QB to win games it likely will be another season of frustration.

But if there is a QB on the roster that can make the special plays it is likely JKS. He has the arm talent to make plays. Brown brings maturity but has little actual game experience.

Football is the ultimate team game. If Cal needs to depend on the QB for a breakthrough season it likely does not end well. What the QB cannot be is the reason they lose the games. This is where I think you have to trust Harsin and Rolovich. They are actual developers of the QB and coaches that have had real offensive success and productivity. But the QB will need to make some plays and avoid crippling mistakes.

---

This is spot on. I also dont think it would be fair to put all the pressure on the QB spot to carry the team. That is why it will be important that our RBs step up to carry any drop off or inexperience we have in the QB position. Everyone is paying attention to the QB battle but I am starting to think the RB situation will be just as important to watch too. How do the new RBs fit in and who can be our RB1 or 2?

If JKS is the starter, then we have to ride with the ups and downs, knowing that in the big picture, he is getting good game time development for the long run.

---

We have a similar situation at RB where all our players left and our highest rated incoming player is a true freshman.

panda said:

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6956bear said:

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Econ141 said:

---

Given that most of us are hoping for a transformational year, I can't help but think it will be highly unlikely if we start a freshman QB regardless of how highly touted he is.

So what examples are there of 1st year freshman QBs that, almost single handedly, accounted for their teams unexpected success that year.

Johnny Football? Anyone else in the recent past?

---

IMO if a transformational season occurs it will likely be due more to the OL becoming above average, the defense being better than expected, the kicking game becomes relaible, there are few significant injuries allowing key players to stay on the field and gameday coaching issues are reduced. And a few offensive skill players step up.

The schedule could play out to where the QB will not need to carry the team but simply make most of the available plays. If the team needs spectacular play from the QB to win games it likely will be another season of frustration.

But if there is a QB on the roster that can make the special plays it is likely JKS. He has the arm talent to make plays. Brown brings maturity but has little actual game experience.

Football is the ultimate team game. If Cal needs to depend on the QB for a breakthrough season it likely does not end well. What the QB cannot be is the reason they lose the games. This is where I think you have to trust Harsin and Rolovich. They are actual developers of the QB and coaches that have had real offensive success and productivity. But the QB will need to make some plays and avoid crippling mistakes.

---

This is spot on. I also dont think it would be fair to put all the pressure on the QB spot to carry the team. That is why it will be important that our RBs step up to carry any drop off or inexperience we have in the QB position. Everyone is paying attention to the QB battle but I am starting to think the RB situation will be just as important to watch too. How do the new RBs fit in and who can be our RB1 or 2?

If JKS is the starter, then we have to ride with the ups and downs, knowing that in the big picture, he is getting good game time development for the long run.

---

I would feel a bit differently if Devin Brown had played more than he did at tOSU. But he really is inexperienced as well. Yes he had more practice time and is older but he threw but 48 passes in 3 seasons. And this system is a new one for him. So regardless of who plays QB there are likely going to be some bumps. The team around the QB (including coaches) will be important. I believe JKS is the better talent. And whatever experience Brown brings is small and done with a different staff and offense. And he played for a deep and very talented team that could win without great QB play. Just don't screw things up. Whoever is the QB here will need to make plays.

Last season the OL was so poor that the running game all but disappeared. They had some chunk plays but when they really needed a yard they could not find one. So Mendoza had to carry the offense. He had some really good numbers and games but was hamstrung by poor OL play and a timid staff. And he did not produce at the end of some games. Stanford being the exception.

I think the running game will be improved over what we saw in 2024. It will be hard for the OL to be worse than 2024. Ott was diminished due to injury and the play calling was very suspect. Jet had a nice ypc number that was helped by a few home run plays. But he was awful in pass protection.

The WR room has seen a lot of movement out. I think they have mostly been replaced adequately, though not sure they have an alpha. TE is troublesome. Endries was a very good played for Cal. His role as the everydown TE has not been found. For now it looks like TE by committee.

The coaches are almost entirely new on offense. Only Mike Saffell returns. This could be a concern or a plus. I believe the new staffers are an improvement overall. But since we have not seen them in a game it is TBD. But Harsin, Rolo and Cefalo have good experience in producing offenses that score. My trust level with the new staff over Bloesch and Gilbert is wide.

There is really very little development that can occur. Cal needs to win now. Players have the ability to transfer at will and Qb is always a valued player in the portal. So if you have a talent you want to keep they need to play. And understand that there will be some ups and downs. My belief is that will occur regardless of the QB. So I want the superior talent taking the snaps. So if you believe as I do that JKS is the superior talent then get to developing him soon. Only so much can be done watching.

I see both sides in this discussion. But Cal may have a generational talent at QB in JKS. I think we know that Brown while not a stiff is not that. Ohio State has passed on him multiple times. I expect Brown to start at Oregon State. This has the look to me of a situation very much like when Cal brought in Rodgers. Robertson started a few games early. Rodgers got his feet wet then took over around game 4.

OsoDorado said:

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Vince Ferragamo was a star freshman for Cal. Hated it when he transferred to Nebraska.

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Yeah, but Bartkowski wouldn't have had that great senior year if he was sharing time with Ferragamo. I don't know if Mike White could ever have fully committed to one or the other. Kyle Boller was another Cal freshman who was handed the keys early, floundered, and finally had a breakout senior year. I thought he'd have a similar NFL path to Bartkowski's, but he didn't progress in the same way Bart did. Boller got injured, and his accuracy and decision-making didn't improve.

6956bear said:

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panda said:

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6956bear said:

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Econ141 said:

---

Given that most of us are hoping for a transformational year, I can't help but think it will be highly unlikely if we start a freshman QB regardless of how highly touted he is.

So what examples are there of 1st year freshman QBs that, almost single handedly, accounted for their teams unexpected success that year.

Johnny Football? Anyone else in the recent past?

---

IMO if a transformational season occurs it will likely be due more to the OL becoming above average, the defense being better than expected, the kicking game becomes relaible, there are few significant injuries allowing key players to stay on the field and gameday coaching issues are reduced. And a few offensive skill players step up.

The schedule could play out to where the QB will not need to carry the team but simply make most of the available plays. If the team needs spectacular play from the QB to win games it likely will be another season of frustration.

But if there is a QB on the roster that can make the special plays it is likely JKS. He has the arm talent to make plays. Brown brings maturity but has little actual game experience.

Football is the ultimate team game. If Cal needs to depend on the QB for a breakthrough season it likely does not end well. What the QB cannot be is the reason they lose the games. This is where I think you have to trust Harsin and Rolovich. They are actual developers of the QB and coaches that have had real offensive success and productivity. But the QB will need to make some plays and avoid crippling mistakes.

---

This is spot on. I also dont think it would be fair to put all the pressure on the QB spot to carry the team. That is why it will be important that our RBs step up to carry any drop off or inexperience we have in the QB position. Everyone is paying attention to the QB battle but I am starting to think the RB situation will be just as important to watch too. How do the new RBs fit in and who can be our RB1 or 2?

If JKS is the starter, then we have to ride with the ups and downs, knowing that in the big picture, he is getting good game time development for the long run.

---

I would feel a bit differently if Devin Brown had played more than he did at tOSU. But he really is inexperienced as well. Yes he had more practice time and is older but he threw but 48 passes in 3 seasons. And this system is a new one for him. So regardless of who plays QB there are likely going to be some bumps. The team around the QB (including coaches) will be important. I believe JKS is the better talent. And whatever experience Brown brings is small and done with a different staff and offense. And he played for a deep and very talented team that could win without great QB play. Just don't screw things up. Whoever is the QB here will need to make plays.

Last season the OL was so poor that the running game all but disappeared. They had some chunk plays but when they really needed a yard they could not find one. So Mendoza had to carry the offense. He had some really good numbers and games but was hamstrung by poor OL play and a timid staff. And he did not produce at the end of some games. Stanford being the exception.

I think the running game will be improved over what we saw in 2024. It will be hard for the OL to be worse than 2024. Ott was diminished due to injury and the play calling was very suspect. Jet had a nice ypc number that was helped by a few home run plays. But he was awful in pass protection.

The WR room has seen a lot of movement out. I think they have mostly been replaced adequately, though not sure they have an alpha. TE is troublesome. Endries was a very good played for Cal. His role as the everydown TE has not been found. For now it looks like TE by committee.

The coaches are almost entirely new on offense. Only Mike Saffell returns. This could be a concern or a plus. I believe the new staffers are an improvement overall. But since we have not seen them in a game it is TBD. But Harsin, Rolo and Cefalo have good experience in producing offenses that score. My trust level with the new staff over Bloesch and Gilbert is wide.

There is really very little development that can occur. Cal needs to win now. Players have the ability to transfer at will and Qb is always a valued player in the portal. So if you have a talent you want to keep they need to play. And understand that there will be some ups and downs. My belief is that will occur regardless of the QB. So I want the superior talent taking the snaps. So if you believe as I do that JKS is the superior talent then get to developing him soon. Only so much can be done watching.

I see both sides in this discussion. But Cal may have a generational talent at QB in JKS. I think we know that Brown while not a stiff is not that. Ohio State has passed on him multiple times. I expect Brown to start at Oregon State. This has the look to me of a situation very much like when Cal brought in Rodgers. Robertson started a few games early. Rodgers got his feet wet then took over around game 4.

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At QB, there's only so much we can glean from spring/preseason. How they do in games is a question unto itself. Whole different set of demands. Brown has had very little of that and ones performance in hs often sheds very little light on readiness for college level. They both have talent. Let's see how they apply it under pressure.

A key is for players to quickly understand and execute the basic offense so that Rolo and Harsin can start adding wrinkles. This team doesn't appear to have the great athletes to win by excelling with just the basics - they'll need that, but will also need a variety of formations and plays to create uncertainty in opposing defenses.
EDIT - I have no idea how a football offense is installed effectively, but I recall that it took a long time for Musgrave's offenses to get going each season.

I hope we're open to starting JKS at game 1. He should have a fully legitimate opportunity thru Fall camp.

Nothing like game-time to hone a QB, our weakest part of schedule is the first two games, JKS has a massively higher ceiling than Brown. His early development will give us a chance against SMU,

Interesting to note that many sites rank Brown (as the presumptive Cal starter) at the bottom of the ACC QB list. Like 14 of 17 ish.

With a lower tier QB our chances of winning Louisville, SMU, VT, UNC, Minnesota, Duke are very low.

Start the true Freshmen. Let him throw deep play action behind a much improved OL. Score in the red zone with an aggressive OC and a top quartile kicker.

During the Willcox era, other than the one Spavital season, our O strategy has been conservative and ineffective.

Cal should take some risk and in a 50/50 or close ranking after fall camp - start JKS in an attempt to create a ranked 40 or better CFB total offense. It should be Jaron's to lose.

"No risk = no reward."

Another year with a 75 to 110 ranked offense is a disaster. That's another 6 win season, at best.

JeffMcd said:

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I hope we're open to starting JKS at game 1. He should have a fully legitimate opportunity thru Fall camp.

Nothing like game-time to hone a QB, our weakest part of schedule is the first two games, JKS has a massively higher ceiling than Brown. His early development will give us a chance against SMU,

Interesting to note that many sites rank Brown (as the presumptive Cal starter) at the bottom of the ACC QB list. Like 14 of 17 ish.

With a lower tier QB our chances of winning Louisville, SMU, VT, UNC, Minnesota, Duke are very low.

Start the true Freshmen. Let him throw deep play action behind a much improved OL. Score in the red zone with an aggressive OC and a top quartile kicker.

During the Willcox era, other than the one Spavital season, our O strategy has been conservative and ineffective.

Cal should take some risk and in a 50/50 or close ranking after fall camp - start JKS in an attempt to create a ranked 40 or better CFB total offense. It should be Jaron's to lose.

"No risk = no reward."

Another year with a 75 to 110 ranked offense is a disaster. That's another 6 win season, at best.

---

Cal's offense ranking under Wilcox:
2017 #71
2018 #116
2019 #112
2020 #111
2021 #96
2022 #96
2023 #43
2024 #90

Wilcox's teams average #92.5 on offense, worse even than Holmoe (#87.8).

Thus, I would be shocked if our offense is better than #75 this year. Other than the first year (#71, so barely) with Baldwin and players that remained from Dykes, the only time we were significantly better than #75 was 2022 (#43) with Spavital, but he got pushed out. Wilcox really prefers plodding offenses and "winning with defense" (though mostly ends up losing).

I think Harsin is promising a grind it out offense which is part of why all our skill position players departed. Harsin's offense at Auburn was #68 his first year, but that was with third year starter and future first round draft pick Bo Nix at QB. Once his skill position players departed his second year he had the #86 offense.

I think we can expect a lot of close, low scoring games. By design,

HearstMining said:

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calumnus said:

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JeffMcd said:

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I hope we're open to starting JKS at game 1. He should have a fully legitimate opportunity thru Fall camp.

Nothing like game-time to hone a QB, our weakest part of schedule is the first two games, JKS has a massively higher ceiling than Brown. His early development will give us a chance against SMU,

Interesting to note that many sites rank Brown (as the presumptive Cal starter) at the bottom of the ACC QB list. Like 14 of 17 ish.

With a lower tier QB our chances of winning Louisville, SMU, VT, UNC, Minnesota, Duke are very low.

Start the true Freshmen. Let him throw deep play action behind a much improved OL. Score in the red zone with an aggressive OC and a top quartile kicker.

During the Willcox era, other than the one Spavital season, our O strategy has been conservative and ineffective.

Cal should take some risk and in a 50/50 or close ranking after fall camp - start JKS in an attempt to create a ranked 40 or better CFB total offense. It should be Jaron's to lose.

"No risk = no reward."

Another year with a 75 to 110 ranked offense is a disaster. That's another 6 win season, at best.

---

Cal's offense ranking under Wilcox:
2017 #71
2018 #116
2019 #112
2020 #111
2021 #96
2022 #96
2023 #43
2024 #90

Wilcox's teams average #92.5 on offense, worse even than Holmoe (#87.8).

Thus, I would be shocked if our offense is better than #75 this year. Other than the first year (#71, so barely) with Baldwin and players that remained from Dykes, the only time we were significantly better than #75 was 2022 (#43) with Spavital, but he got pushed out. Wilcox really prefers plodding offenses and "winning with defense" (though mostly ends up losing).

I think Harsin is promising a grind it out offense which is part of why all our skill position players departed. Harsin's offense at Auburn was #68 his first year, but that was with third year starter and future first round draft pick Bo Nix at QB. Once his skill position players departed his second year he had the #86 offense.

I think we can expect a lot of close, low scoring games. By design,

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For those of us of a certain vintage, the name "Ray Willsey" comes to mind.

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The 1968 Bear Minimum squad would knock around every Wilcox team to date.

Well, we are doomed if you are correct.

"Insanity is to keep doing the same thing over and over, and expect a different result."

I have to believe Harsin and Rolovich are smart, supple and can evolve Cal's O gameplan and personnel, even if Willcox cannot. Can't believe Rivera is going to stand by and watch the same Willcox approach to offense after 7 seasons (excluding Spavital's one) of abject failure. Facts are facts. The Willcox approach has failed and will continue to do so.

So I say, play the true Freshman unless Brown is dominant in the fall practices. We know Brown's upside. JKS's ceiling is unknown and potentially much higher.