Yo dudes.

I've been watching some CFB predictions videos, and I was disappointed at how simplistic the rationale for many analysts' thinking was behind why they believe Oregon State wins.

Many suggest loss of talent, amount of unproven newcomers, and Maalik Murphy experience vs. freshman JKS. This is all true but I think over-weighted.

Further, If you look at stats it also seems to indicate Oregon State:



However, here's what I think are huge nuanced misses by the talking heads.

While I don't believe in deterministic outcomes, I do believe that 7/10 games we should win vs. OSU.

Here are the top 3 reasons why:

#1. O-line under Famika Anae.

• Proven Track Record: I think we're all familiar with his stats at New Mexico, but I want to highlight that Coach inherited an O-line that previously had zero snaps together. They got ~250 yards rushing per game (4th nationally) and ~480 total yards per game (4th nationally). #1 nationally in sacks. Coach developed 8 All-Conference players.
• Portal Additions: It's hard to believe we won't dramatically improve here from coaching as well as the number of people we brought in.

#2. Complete Speed Mismatch Cal WRs vs. OSU Secondary

• Speed: Dazmin: 10.46 100m, 21.06 (200m) NC State Champion. QuaRon Adams: 10.49 (100m) 4.39 40, >30 yards per reception. Jacob De Jesus: 4.4-4.5 40 but proven ability to create separartion.
• Cefalo + Harsin + Rolo: Harsin is famous for his deep field domination. We'll likely see a lot of vertical concepts (flood, triangle, Cobb) and at Boise they converted 46% of 3rd downs using vertical speed concepts. Rolo also known for 4 verticals and crossing speed routes. A lot of experience creating coverage stress using speed. And Cefalo known for teaching route techniques specifically for speed receivers.
• OSU Secondary: Slow!!! They lack speed and ASSUMING #1 our O-line can hold, we are gonna be going deep on these guys all day long. If we believe in our O-line and JKS ability to get the ball to our fast WRs, this game could get out of hand.

#3. QB vs. QB

• Maalik Murphy: Yeah he's good. Yeah he's great under pressure. But all of his experience becomes irrelevant if his line can't protect him. OSU Spring reports: "The offensive line has some injury issues and didn't play well. I left the scrimmage thinking that offensive line play is the biggest question"
• JKS: I believe in JKS. Although true freshman average 2.3 turnovers per game, here I'm taking the leap of faith from what I saw during our spring game and Ron's comments about JKS having a special arm. I also think Devin Brown is a good QB and the fact that JKS beat him, means he's got to be better than your typical good freshman QB. Also, this kinda goes back to Coach Anae. I think if we can protect him, he'll be just fine.
• RBs: Coach Griffin mentioned that RBs will only play if they can protect the QB. I think our running attack only needs to gain 3-4 tough yards here and there and keep coverage honest.
• Preparation: While there's likely an experience gap advantage OSU here, I think we also have an advantage that we can study a lot of tape on Murphy and they got nothing on JKS... Let's see.

Well guys, I assume the negabears are gonna roast me again. But go ahead. Lol.

I like the early season sunshine pumping, with stats backing!

K1min8r said:

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Yo dudes.

I've been watching some CFB predictions videos, and I was disappointed at how simplistic the rationale for many analysts' thinking was behind why they believe Oregon State wins.

Many suggest loss of talent, amount of unproven newcomers, and Maalik Murphy experience vs. freshman JKS. This is all true but I think over-weighted.

Further, If you look at stats it also seems to indicate Oregon State:



However, here's what I think are huge nuanced misses by the talking heads.

While I don't believe in deterministic outcomes, I do believe that 7/10 games we should win vs. OSU.

Here are the top 3 reasons why:

#1. O-line under Famika Anae.

• Proven Track Record: I think we're all familiar with his stats at New Mexico, but I want to highlight that Coach inherited an O-line that previously had zero snaps together. They got ~250 yards rushing per game (4th nationally) and ~480 total yards per game (4th nationally). #1 nationally in sacks. Coach developed 8 All-Conference players.
• Portal Additions: It's hard to believe we won't dramatically improve here from coaching as well as the number of people we brought in.

#2. Complete Speed Mismatch Cal WRs vs. OSU Secondary

• Speed: Dazmin: 10.46 100m, 21.06 (200m) NC State Champion. QuaRon Adams: 10.49 (100m) 4.39 40, >30 yards per reception. Jacob De Jesus: 4.4-4.5 40 but proven ability to create separartion.
• Cefalo + Harsin + Rolo: Harsin is famous for his deep field domination. We'll likely see a lot of vertical concepts (flood, triangle, Cobb) and at Boise they converted 46% of 3rd downs using vertical speed concepts. Rolo also known for 4 verticals and crossing speed routes. A lot of experience creating coverage stress using speed. And Cefalo known for teaching route techniques specifically for speed receivers.
• OSU Secondary: Slow!!! They lack speed and ASSUMING #1 our O-line can hold, we are gonna be going deep on these guys all day long. If we believe in our O-line and JKS ability to get the ball to our fast WRs, this game could get out of hand.

#3. QB vs. QB

• Maalik Murphy: Yeah he's good. Yeah he's great under pressure. But all of his experience becomes irrelevant if his line can't protect him. OSU Spring reports: "The offensive line has some injury issues and didn't play well. I left the scrimmage thinking that offensive line play is the biggest question"
• JKS: I believe in JKS. Although true freshman average 2.3 turnovers per game, here I'm taking the leap of faith from what I saw during our spring game and Ron's comments about JKS having a special arm. I also think Devin Brown is a good QB and the fact that JKS beat him, means he's got to be better than your typical good freshman QB. Also, this kinda goes back to Coach Anae. I think if we can protect him, he'll be just fine.
• RBs: Coach Griffin mentioned that RBs will only play if they can protect the QB. I think our running attack only needs to gain 3-4 tough yards here and there and keep coverage honest.
• Preparation: While there's likely an experience gap advantage OSU here, I think we also have an advantage that we can study a lot of tape on Murphy and they got nothing on JKS... Let's see.

Well guys, I assume the negabears are gonna roast me again. But go ahead. Lol.

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I agree with your conclusion, but not your analysis.

Competition for starting/playing time makes everyone better, especially when the players are close in performance. We have more competition at each position than we've ever had, esp at OL, RB, and DB. And, with those position coaches demanding toughness, there will be no participation trophies. Same with QB to some extent - if JKS really does start, it will have taken strong performance, Brown is no slouch and will not give in.

D will be fine and will have competition at most jobs. Murphy will be harassed all game long. They're gonna play their asses off.

Cal by 10, minimum.

Agree on all of your points. I think we will get the W, and I don't think it will be particularly close. We need to start off with a bang!

You are probably right, K1min8r... and I sure hope you are.

My concerns are:

- yeah we beat them 7 out of 10 times, heck maybe 8, but maybe this is one of the 2-3 where we don't
- worried a bit about the hostile environment in our first game
- we have a few problems early... a turnover or two... a key dropped pass... a missed read or blown coverage that gives them a TD... a bad penalty... missed important 3rd or 4th down and short yardage play... yet another missed FG or some botched special teams play. Then we start pressing.

I think we got this. If I had to bet, I'd put my money on the Bears. That said, I've been around too long to not be a little anxious about this one.

Cal88 said:

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I like the early season sunshine pumping, with stats backing!

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Come drink the Koolaid with me!

Lol. Yeah, all of the stats come from my AI model.

I had it first run a prediction model just using the raw Internet searches. It came up with a prediction of:

Oregon State win 27-21 with 65% confidence level.

Then I had the model factor in o-line specifically, transfer portal additions, and matchups.

Then it came up with:

Cal wins 24-21 with 72% confidence level.

Anyway, who knows how good AI is at this stuff but the conclusion was the following:

Betting Recommendation: California +3 is exceptional value. The market hasn't adjusted for the massive structural improvements Cal made with Anae's hiring and transfer additions. Oregon State's protection concerns create a ceiling on their offensive potential that makes the small road spread incredibly attractive.

Over/Under: Under 51.5 - Both defenses should have advantages, and Oregon State's offensive line issues will limit scoring potential despite Murphy's talent.

This represents a classic example of market inefficiency where betting lines haven't caught up to dramatic roster and coaching changes that fundamentally alter team strengths and weaknesses.

K1min8r said:

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Rushinbear said:

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I agree with your conclusion, but not your analysis.

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What part of the analysis do you disagree with? I don't take any of this stuff personally but would be interested to know where people think I got something wrong.

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last year is irrelevant. wr speed you cited is of back-ups, as of now. effective harsin tendencies are 3 years old.

Love it. I always appreciate thought out posts, positive or negative. The part I find most interesting is your second bullet of your second point. I saw an interview with JKS at ACC media days (not on the stage, just a 1 on 1 later on) where they asked him if he had a favorite passing concept and, with zero hesitation, he said flood concept and 4 verts. Given Harsin and Rolovich's proclivities and dual input on the offensive system having a QB whose strengths and preferences perfectly align with coaching is a huge advantage.

One of my biggest concerns though, and it will remain so until proven otherwise, is do Harsin/Rolovich have the cachet to convince Wilcox to keep his foot on the gas. Defensive coaches, and especially Wilcox, favor slowing the game down to protect the defense and keep them fresh which more often than not lets the other team claw back into the game.

Defense wins championships and big games, I firmly still believe that; but what we need to look at is what that defensive impact needs to look like in this era of football. A perfect example would be Boise State's '07 Fiesta Bowl vs Oklahoma when Wilcox was DC. They held Oklahoma to 10 first half points, they forced 4 TOs in the game (including one inside the 10 yard line that led directly to a TD, and one in the end zone that kept points off the board for OU), they had another goal line stand, etc. In almost all respects it was a **GREAT** defensive game, it still took 35 points to go to OT and 43 to win. The lesson from that should be that you need a consistent offense and that keeps putting up points and a defense that wins select battles. You're not going to consistently hold teams under 20 or 25 points, you need the momentum changing series or plays and, even if it puts more pressure on the defense and allows more points, you need your offense to keep hitting them. If we get up by a quick two TDs or 17 points will Harsin be able to tell Wilcox not to worry and keep the attacking mindset? Or will Wilcox want to slow their roll and cut into momentum to preserve the defense which won't be able to consistently get stops no matter what any coach does?

My other biggest concern (other than the OL where we have faith that Fanika will have them improved) is the pass rush. I like McCulloch and TJ Bush has apparently been flashing but neither have shown the potential of an elite edge rusher and Idk that we have the necessary depth either. On top of that our DL hasn't shown to this point to be the kind to pin their ears back on obvious passing situations. Keanaaina is the only truly established one and he's not a pass pressure DT, I think the loss of Xavier and Reese is the biggest comparative drop off from last season except maybe for Endries but he's more replaceable in an offensive system and through a platoon.

Bearly Clad said:

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Love it. I always appreciate thought out posts, positive or negative. The part I find most interesting is your second bullet of your second point. I saw an interview with JKS at ACC media days (not on the stage, just a 1 on 1 later on) where they asked him if he had a favorite passing concept and, with zero hesitation, he said flood concept and 4 verts. Given Harsin and Rolovich's proclivities and dual input on the offensive system having a QB whose strengths and preferences perfectly align with coaching is a huge advantage.

One of my biggest concerns though, and it will remain so until proven otherwise, is do Harsin/Rolovich have the cachet to convince Wilcox to keep his foot on the gas. Defensive coaches, and especially Wilcox, favor slowing the game down to protect the defense and keep them fresh which more often than not lets the other team claw back into the game.

Defense wins championships and big games, I firmly still believe that; but what we need to look at is what that defensive impact needs to look like in this era of football. A perfect example would be Boise State's '07 Fiesta Bowl vs Oklahoma when Wilcox was DC. They held Oklahoma to 10 first half points, they forced 4 TOs in the game (including one inside the 10 yard line that led directly to a TD, and one in the end zone that kept points off the board for OU), they had another goal line stand, etc. In almost all respects it was a **GREAT** defensive game, it still took 35 points to go to OT and 43 to win. The lesson from that should be that you need a consistent offense and that keeps putting up points and a defense that wins select battles. You're not going to consistently hold teams under 20 or 25 points, you need the momentum changing series or plays and, even if it puts more pressure on the defense and allows more points, you need your offense to keep hitting them. If we get up by a quick two TDs or 17 points will Harsin be able to tell Wilcox not to worry and keep the attacking mindset? Or will Wilcox want to slow their roll and cut into momentum to preserve the defense which won't be able to consistently get stops no matter what any coach does?

My other biggest concern (other than the OL where we have faith that Fanika will have them improved) is the pass rush. I like McCulloch and TJ Bush has apparently been flashing but neither have shown the potential of an elite edge rusher and Idk that we have the necessary depth either. On top of that our DL hasn't shown to this point to be the kind to pin their ears back on obvious passing situations. Keanaaina is the only truly established one and he's not a pass pressure DT, I think the loss of Xavier and Reese is the biggest comparative drop off from last season except maybe for Endries but he's more replaceable in an offensive system and through a platoon.

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I'm 100% on board with you.

I think defense, especially secondary and edge rush (we agree on this part), could take a step back (hopefully not), but I feel like this is offset by the dramatic drop in strength of schedule. So in this case, I think our defense just needs to win against mid-tier opponents.

The one other lens through which I'm viewing the performance on the field is basically through the perspective of macro (e.g., high level strategy) vs. micro (e.g., tactical execution).

We seem to have hit home runs on the macro from getting key talent in, key moves to shore up o-line, getting NIL up, Ron, admin leadership, trying to fix culture, etc.

On the micro side, meaning tactical execution of our guys getting enough reps together, building chemistry, etc. this is a HUGE risk. It's totally possible we may stink early and get things together late season. I hope not, but the more reasonable expectation is that with all of the new pieces, it'll take time.

^^ This part I think Calumnus is also suggesting. One reason for some hope is that when Coach Anae went to New Mexico last year they lost 7 offensive linemen meaning it was a complete rebuild from the portal. Like even worse than our situation.

Related to Wilcox and culture though, one other area of hope. There seemed to be some indications that some people left bc of a hard core culture and there's seemed to be some handwringing about you shouldn't do that in the age of NIL and transfers. My feeling is that we lost a lot of close games because of lack of hard core conditioning, lack of "cruelty" from Wilcox, and o-line breaking down and our RBs not helping causing a lot of our plays to break down. I hope those issues are better this year. From what we're hearing about strength & conditioning, and that some transfers may have occurred bc we're too hard core... well maybe that's a good thing. Maybe we win more close games this year.

I love this post and I have to review it more thoroughly, but I think there are two wildcards.

We have no idea how either team really is yet, because first game, and because due to portal so much turnover of rosters.

Second, the factor I am interested in most is how JKS handles the hostile environment at Corvallis. And believe me they are going to be pumped up. They want nothing but to knock off former Pac-12 foe Cal. This is big for them. I want to say their Super Bowl - OK I said it, their Super Bowl. I believe JKS is an assassin, that's how he played in HS. But this is gonna be on another level. I say if our oline controls the LOS we have a really good shot which will help JKS manage the game and our running game can help with TOP.

There is a premium on the offensive coaching staff in this first game with a new QB and other positions. Can they implement a gameplan and set of plays that the new roster will be able to execute with reasonable success on the road? They have to operate within a narrow band of a thin early season playbook that the players will be able to implement yet will be good enough to move the ball on OSU.

The OSU D might sellout on the run and force our true Freshman QB to beat them, if we can't establish a running game that would give JKS some breathing room under those circumstances, it's going to be a long day.

I listened to a recent "Beavers Beat" podcast (Ryan Clarke, the Oregonian beat writer for The Oregonian) to get some insight on our first opponent. 'll link it if you wish to listen, but these were the five main storylines for The Beavers this year, in his estimation: (I apologize for possible misspelled names, I'm just going off the audio...)
1) QB Malik Murphy: Clarke acknowledges that Murphy has skills and experience. However, he also mentions some concerns about consistency and judgement, in particular noting interceptions last season as well as numerous through into double- or triple-coverage in the few open scrimmages they've had.
2) WR Eddie Freuhauf: true freshman, very little experience with football (somewhat recent emigre from Uganda) that appears to be on the first team and is generally turning heads. Also mentions that the Beavs are generally strong at WR.
3) WR Darius Clemens: stud WR appears to have suffered a perhaps big injury earlier in Fall Camp.
4) Improved pass rush: notes two transfers at edge rusher who are showing well in camp
5) Head Coach Trent Bray is taking over the Defensive Coordinator role as well, and defense appears to be the better for it.

LINK HERE

K1min8r said:

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KoreAmBear said:

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I say if our oline controls the LOS we have a really good shot which will help JKS manage the game and our running game can help with TOP.

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I'm with you bruh. I do agree it'll come down to oline. I just listened to Mike Pawlawski's podcast... oof. Sounds like he's not too optimistic on our oline right now.

Hope he's wrong!

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Yikes. Hope Coach Anae is the real deal. Please let it be so.

BearlyCareAnymore said:

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K1min8r said:

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Yo dudes.

I've been watching some CFB predictions videos, and I was disappointed at how simplistic the rationale for many analysts' thinking was behind why they believe Oregon State wins.

Many suggest loss of talent, amount of unproven newcomers, and Maalik Murphy experience vs. freshman JKS. This is all true but I think over-weighted.

Further, If you look at stats it also seems to indicate Oregon State:



However, here's what I think are huge nuanced misses by the talking heads.

While I don't believe in deterministic outcomes, I do believe that 7/10 games we should win vs. OSU.

Here are the top 3 reasons why:

#1. O-line under Famika Anae.

• Proven Track Record: I think we're all familiar with his stats at New Mexico, but I want to highlight that Coach inherited an O-line that previously had zero snaps together. They got ~250 yards rushing per game (4th nationally) and ~480 total yards per game (4th nationally). #1 nationally in sacks. Coach developed 8 All-Conference players.
• Portal Additions: It's hard to believe we won't dramatically improve here from coaching as well as the number of people we brought in.

#2. Complete Speed Mismatch Cal WRs vs. OSU Secondary

• Speed: Dazmin: 10.46 100m, 21.06 (200m) NC State Champion. QuaRon Adams: 10.49 (100m) 4.39 40, >30 yards per reception. Jacob De Jesus: 4.4-4.5 40 but proven ability to create separartion.
• Cefalo + Harsin + Rolo: Harsin is famous for his deep field domination. We'll likely see a lot of vertical concepts (flood, triangle, Cobb) and at Boise they converted 46% of 3rd downs using vertical speed concepts. Rolo also known for 4 verticals and crossing speed routes. A lot of experience creating coverage stress using speed. And Cefalo known for teaching route techniques specifically for speed receivers.
• OSU Secondary: Slow!!! They lack speed and ASSUMING #1 our O-line can hold, we are gonna be going deep on these guys all day long. If we believe in our O-line and JKS ability to get the ball to our fast WRs, this game could get out of hand.

#3. QB vs. QB

• Maalik Murphy: Yeah he's good. Yeah he's great under pressure. But all of his experience becomes irrelevant if his line can't protect him. OSU Spring reports: "The offensive line has some injury issues and didn't play well. I left the scrimmage thinking that offensive line play is the biggest question"
• JKS: I believe in JKS. Although true freshman average 2.3 turnovers per game, here I'm taking the leap of faith from what I saw during our spring game and Ron's comments about JKS having a special arm. I also think Devin Brown is a good QB and the fact that JKS beat him, means he's got to be better than your typical good freshman QB. Also, this kinda goes back to Coach Anae. I think if we can protect him, he'll be just fine.
• RBs: Coach Griffin mentioned that RBs will only play if they can protect the QB. I think our running attack only needs to gain 3-4 tough yards here and there and keep coverage honest.
• Preparation: While there's likely an experience gap advantage OSU here, I think we also have an advantage that we can study a lot of tape on Murphy and they got nothing on JKS... Let's see.

Well guys, I assume the negabears are gonna roast me again. But go ahead. Lol.

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Cal beats OSU because OSU really sucks.

Some of your analysis is good. Some could be true , but isn't based on much info, like QB being better on our side. Could be, but balance of probabilities is no.

But bottom line, OSU was horrible and Murphy doesn't make up for that. The main risk to Cal is that JKS in game one has a very low floor and very high ceiling. I predict he will be squarely in the middle, but if he isn't ready, the game is a risk. The fact that some of you seem to be expecting Aaron Rodgers from the jump is worrisome.

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The benchmark for JKS this season is Jared Goff's freshman season. They were both highly recruited out of high school, came to Cal as early entrants (Spring Practice!) and will have started as true freshman.

Goff was good but somewhat flawed that year. The reason we went 1-11 wasn't him, for sure. After that season, there were some folks still calling for Zack Kline, but it was clear to me and many others, that Goff was going to be really good.

JKS will have a much better supporting cast (including the defense). If he's as good as Goff was, we will be fine, but people need to understand: Goff was good that year. It ain't easy, starting as a true freshman QB.

K1min8r said:

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OsoDorado said:

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Big C said:

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The benchmark for JKS this season is Jared Goff's freshman season. They were both highly recruited out of high school, came to Cal as early entrants (Spring Practice!) and will have started as true freshman.

Goff was good but somewhat flawed that year. The reason we went 1-11 wasn't him, for sure. After that season, there were some folks still calling for Zack Kline, but it was clear to me and many others, that Goff was going to be really good.

JKS will have a much better supporting cast (including the defense). If he's as good as Goff was, we will be fine, but people need to understand: Goff was good that year. It ain't easy, starting as a true freshman QB.

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All true, but I have a feeling JKS will actually be better than Jared as a freshman.

Admittedly, this is just a hunch based only on High School highlight videos because I haven't seen any of the Cal practices, but based on what I've seen, I suspect JKS will match up well in 3 critical respects:

1) arm strength and accuracy;
2) field awareness and pocket presence; and
3) perhaps most importantly, turnovers (which were a real strength for JKS in HS).

Again, I wish I had more recent evidence to base this on, but JKS was so outstanding in HS in practically every dimension that I just have to believe it will translate fairly smoothly to excelling in D1 (even more seamlessly than what we saw from Jared) ....

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I hope you're right regarding JKS being better than Goff! Lol, somehow people here got access to some strong ass Koolaid. Where do I get mine!

I went back and looked at what I posted from the Spring game back in April on JKS... even then, I thought - and others at the game all of us thought - it was pretty clear JKS outperformed:

"I dunno... seemed like Jaron was clearly the best QB out there today. Just to be clear, from someone who doesn't know anything. Just my 2 cents. What'd other people think?

I'd probably rate it Jaron, EJ, Devin at this point.

Not enough reps for EJ to see, but he was a bit of a surprise. Jaron had a few mis-steps and over-threw a fair amount during warm ups. However, he definitely seemed super relaxed even under pressure and very decisive during scrimmage. That's the part that seems missing with Devin, doesn't seem like he's seeing the field as well and hesitant. He's got a beautiful throw though.

Also seems like Jaron has a very strong arm, a couple of thows seemed to be missed bc he just threw so hard. And finally saw a wide receiver screen where the ball got to the WR in a hurry. I feel like we had a lot of late throws on screens last few years... maybe I'm wrong on this."

Anyway, I feel good about Jaron and think he could surprise to the upside for us... I'm still trying to not drink the 100 proof Koolaid but damn its tempting, lol.

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Just to be clear, he said "better than Goff as a freshman." But yes, all the talk about Brown being the lock to start despite being outplayed in practice and the Spring game and pretty clearly having the lower ceiling (combined with the exit of some of my all time favorites from the offense) was one of the reasons I was feeling so glum about the season. The decision to start Sagapolutele has given me a reason to be excited about the season.