It seems to me that three factors combine to make it more difficult to project the quality of Cal's team based on early season results, not just this year, but for the last several years:

• Change in coaching staff and strategy
• Roster turnover
• First couple of games are cupcakes to inflate record

The first two factors mean that the team is still on a learning curve for the first quarter of the season and maybe an unfinished product until the midpoint. Heck, Cal had to go through three QBs in 2023 to find the one that clicked. This can argue for scheduling one cupcake opponent, but the pressure to get to six wins and be bowl-eligible means that Cal often schedules two and that makes it more difficult to gauge progress and maybe inflates players' expectations about how good the team really is. How many times have players answered an interview question with, "Wow, there's so much talent on this team . . .", or "We're going to surprise people . . ."

From watching the first two games on TV, I've learned only two good things: JKS can make all the throws and seems to be able to run the offense and we have kickers who can make field goals.

I still have no idea whether the OL can play against ACC-level competition and consequently don't know if the RBs are good enough. Likewise, I don't know if the rebuild DBs will be good enough because I don't know if the DL can rush the QB against ACC-level competition. If the OL and DL come up short, as was generally the case last year, Cal's ceiling will be where it's been every year of the Wilcox era.

ac_green33 said:

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HKBear97! said:

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BearlyCareAnymore said:

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GivemTheAxe said:

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StillNoStanfurdium said:

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MinotStateBeav said:

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If I watched Cal last week, I'd feel pretty confident too lol. I'd say Cal's defense is solid but their offense can't run the ball and WRs that can't get open.

---

I feel like it's more accurate to say after watching our last game that we actually might have a running back in Raphael (131 yds, 7.3 avg) and that our WRs can get open enough but can't catch.

---

I think our OL is better than last year BUT still needs improvement

I think our Offensive coaching is better than last year.

I think our special teams are better than last year EXCEPT for kick offs that rarely reach the other team's end zone. .

I do think our QB is phenomenal and would show it better if our receivers would learn to catch. In both of our two games. Cal left points on the field because of poor pass catching. We MUST improve our pass catching or jKS may decide to look for a team that has receivers who can catch.

---

What I would say to you is go back and watch last year's team play two games. Compare 2024 playing against Oregon State vs. 2025 playing against Oregon State. No reason so far to think OSU has improved. Then Compare 2024 against Davis to 2025 against Texas Southern. That is the only comp on the two schedules though Davis was a substantially better team than Texas Southern.

Are we better in these two games? Have we improved or are we just playing worse opponents now as we do at the beginning of every year.

This seems to be what we do every year. We play a crappy non-conference schedule and then say we have improved because we are comparing to the entire prior season when we played actual real teams.

We may be improved but we haven't shown it yet. We are playing August/September Wilcox ball awaiting to see if we will play October/November Wilcox ball or something better.

---

Agreed, although I think this non-conference game will be telling. Looking at records so far, I'd actually be more surprised by a Cal win than a loss. Oregon State is not a good team - losing at home to a bad Fresno State team proved that. Texas Southern is not a good team even by FCS standards. For Minnesota, Buffalo is actually a very good team - probably better than Oregon State and certainly stronger than Texas Southern. Meanwhile they pummeled Northwestern State and looked much better doing that than Cal did against Texas Southern.

A Cal win would warrant some optimism for the rest of the year. A Cal loss and I fully expect yet another mediocre season.

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I mean you probably only think Buffalo is very good because they played Minnesota tight. And while OSU losing to Fresno St. was bad, they dominated the game statistically and not having a long snapper lost them the game. So, there's very little actual data to go on and you're filling in some gaps that can prove to just be noise.

You can just as easily make the point that "wow Cal defense really held a potent OSU team in check" and Minnesota isn't as good as their record indicates because "they let Buffalo hang around for way too long"

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I think Buffalo is good because last year the new coaching staff went 9-4, brought back a lot of production, and they're projected to be a top-three team in the MAC again this year. As to Oregon State, they did not look good against us. I've also watched Freson State and don't believe they're that strong - particularly their line play.

Yes, the data is sparse, particularly in this new world of massive roster turnover. That's probably why the line is where it is. From my perspective though, Minnesota is coming in with the stronger resume. That's why I would be pleasantly surprised with a win and allow myself some optimism for the rest of the season (as dangerous as that is every year for a Cal fan!).

Bearly Clad said:

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BearlyCareAnymore said:

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GivemTheAxe said:

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StillNoStanfurdium said:

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MinotStateBeav said:

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If I watched Cal last week, I'd feel pretty confident too lol. I'd say Cal's defense is solid but their offense can't run the ball and WRs that can't get open.

---

I feel like it's more accurate to say after watching our last game that we actually might have a running back in Raphael (131 yds, 7.3 avg) and that our WRs can get open enough but can't catch.

---

I think our OL is better than last year BUT still needs improvement

I think our Offensive coaching is better than last year.

I think our special teams are better than last year EXCEPT for kick offs that rarely reach the other team's end zone. .

I do think our QB is phenomenal and would show it better if our receivers would learn to catch. In both of our two games. Cal left points on the field because of poor pass catching. We MUST improve our pass catching or jKS may decide to look for a team that has receivers who can catch.

---

What I would say to you is go back and watch last year's team play two games. Compare 2024 playing against Oregon State vs. 2025 playing against Oregon State. No reason so far to think OSU has improved. Then Compare 2024 against Davis to 2025 against Texas Southern. That is the only comp on the two schedules though Davis was a substantially better team than Texas Southern.

Are we better in these two games? Have we improved or are we just playing worse opponents now as we do at the beginning of every year.

This seems to be what we do every year. We play a crappy non-conference schedule and then say we have improved because we are comparing to the entire prior season when we played actual real teams.

We may be improved but we haven't shown it yet. We are playing August/September Wilcox ball awaiting to see if we will play October/November Wilcox ball or something better.

---

That's fair to say and to temper expectations but I think the reason for optimism is that we are clearly improved at a few key spots. OL play is looking much better, at this point last year we had given up 3 sacks and 14 TFLs, this year it's 1 sack and 7 TFLs; we all knew OL was a weakness and it finally looks like we're improved at the most important position on the field.

We are not clearly improved at those spots WHEN YOU COMPARE THEM AGAINST THE SAME COMPETITION. Last year at this time we had played UC Davis, who is significantly better than Texas Southern, and Auburn, who is significantly better than OSU, especially on defense. you should be comparing OSU to OSU, not OSU to Auburn

UCD (2024) - 1 sack, 6 TFL's

Tex So. 2025 - 1 sack, 3 TFL's


OSU (2024) - 0 sacks, 4 TFL's

OSU (2025) - 0 sacks, 4 TFL's

So you are hanging your hat on a superior FCS opponent in 2024 getting 3 more TFL's than an inferior FCS opponent in 2025. Our stats against OSU are identical.


Speaking of important positions, QB is vastly improved over last year.

That statement is patently ridiculous both from an eyeball test perspective and from a statistical perspective. I am encouraged by JKS' start, but there is no way he has been better than an experienced Mendoza from last year:

UCD 2024 Cal QBR (starter) - 59.1
Tex Southern (2025) Cal (starter) QBR - 18.4

OSU 2024 Cal QBR (starter)- 86.8
OSU 2025 Cal QBR - (starter) - 64.2




And our Special Teams which was an Achilles heel and cost us a handful of games last year alone, looks like they finally righted the ship and have even been a strength through two weeks.

Tend to agree, but even there our field goal kicking last year was perfect against Davis and OSU (7 for 7 on field goals, 7 for 7 on XP) which may have something to do with having zero physical pressure on the kicks and zero psychological pressure on the situation.

So this may be fool's gold, and we may not be much improved much or at all, but the reasons for optimism this time around are that we finally found some success at the most important positions, we fixed some glaring and repeated weaknesses, and some of our question mark spots heading into the season have been answered (namely DB where we had to reload the whole unit).

You only think this because to my original point, you are comparing this year's team after only playing dogmeat to last year's team where all the weaknesses were exposed through the season. The lousy OL last year played just as well as this year's teams in these comparable games and the QB play was significantly better. This year's team has not had the opportunity to either prove themselves or be exposed against quality competition.

Again, we have played August/September Wilcox football.

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Rushinbear said:

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6956bear said:

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HKBear97! said:

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ac_green33 said:

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HKBear97! said:

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BearlyCareAnymore said:

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GivemTheAxe said:

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StillNoStanfurdium said:

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MinotStateBeav said:

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If I watched Cal last week, I'd feel pretty confident too lol. I'd say Cal's defense is solid but their offense can't run the ball and WRs that can't get open.

---

I feel like it's more accurate to say after watching our last game that we actually might have a running back in Raphael (131 yds, 7.3 avg) and that our WRs can get open enough but can't catch.

---

I think our OL is better than last year BUT still needs improvement

I think our Offensive coaching is better than last year.

I think our special teams are better than last year EXCEPT for kick offs that rarely reach the other team's end zone. .

I do think our QB is phenomenal and would show it better if our receivers would learn to catch. In both of our two games. Cal left points on the field because of poor pass catching. We MUST improve our pass catching or jKS may decide to look for a team that has receivers who can catch.

---

What I would say to you is go back and watch last year's team play two games. Compare 2024 playing against Oregon State vs. 2025 playing against Oregon State. No reason so far to think OSU has improved. Then Compare 2024 against Davis to 2025 against Texas Southern. That is the only comp on the two schedules though Davis was a substantially better team than Texas Southern.

Are we better in these two games? Have we improved or are we just playing worse opponents now as we do at the beginning of every year.

This seems to be what we do every year. We play a crappy non-conference schedule and then say we have improved because we are comparing to the entire prior season when we played actual real teams.

We may be improved but we haven't shown it yet. We are playing August/September Wilcox ball awaiting to see if we will play October/November Wilcox ball or something better.

---

Agreed, although I think this non-conference game will be telling. Looking at records so far, I'd actually be more surprised by a Cal win than a loss. Oregon State is not a good team - losing at home to a bad Fresno State team proved that. Texas Southern is not a good team even by FCS standards. For Minnesota, Buffalo is actually a very good team - probably better than Oregon State and certainly stronger than Texas Southern. Meanwhile they pummeled Northwestern State and looked much better doing that than Cal did against Texas Southern.

A Cal win would warrant some optimism for the rest of the year. A Cal loss and I fully expect yet another mediocre season.

---

I mean you probably only think Buffalo is very good because they played Minnesota tight. And while OSU losing to Fresno St. was bad, they dominated the game statistically and not having a long snapper lost them the game. So, there's very little actual data to go on and you're filling in some gaps that can prove to just be noise.

You can just as easily make the point that "wow Cal defense really held a potent OSU team in check" and Minnesota isn't as good as their record indicates because "they let Buffalo hang around for way too long"

---

I think Buffalo is good because last year the new coaching staff went 9-4, brought back a lot of production, and they're projected to be a top-three team in the MAC again this year. As to Oregon State, they did not look good against us. I've also watched Freson State and don't believe they're that strong - particularly their line play.

Yes, the data is sparse, particularly in this new world of massive roster turnover. That's probably why the line is where it is. From my perspective though, Minnesota is coming in with the stronger resume. That's why I would be pleasantly surprised with a win and allow myself some optimism for the rest of the season (as dangerous as that is every year for a Cal fan!).

---

I agree that the resume for Minnesota is stronger. But not by a lot. This is a Cal home game and that needs to make a difference. A Cal win should not be considered a pleasant surprise IMO. This is by nearly every metric a close game on paper.

Close games can turn on very little. The home crowd needs to both inspire and motivate the Bears but make life difficult for a RS Frosh QB making his first road start.

The real concern I have is that Minnesota under Fleck seems to play closer to their potential and ability more often than Cal has under Wilcox. Cal played flat vs TSU. They need to be ready from the start. Minnesota is unlikely to beat themselves. Cal will need to make some plays to win. Very interested in the gameplan on both sides of the ball for the Bears.

---

Cal fans don't know when to yell and, if they did know, they wouldn't do it, since it would be inhospitable. Cal fans don't want to be seen as crass or uncivil.

Nonetheless, Cal by 10.

---

So the team who went 2-6 in the ACC, beating only the two second to last place teams and losing to everyone else including giving the last place team its only win, and who lost almost their entire offense is going to win by 2 scores against the team that that was 5-4 in the Big 10 and didn't lose nearly as much talent and we are expressing disdain for Minnesota being too optimistic in their predictions.

BearlyCareAnymore said:

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Rushinbear said:

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6956bear said:

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HKBear97! said:

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ac_green33 said:

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HKBear97! said:

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BearlyCareAnymore said:

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GivemTheAxe said:

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StillNoStanfurdium said:

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MinotStateBeav said:

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If I watched Cal last week, I'd feel pretty confident too lol. I'd say Cal's defense is solid but their offense can't run the ball and WRs that can't get open.

---

I feel like it's more accurate to say after watching our last game that we actually might have a running back in Raphael (131 yds, 7.3 avg) and that our WRs can get open enough but can't catch.

---

I think our OL is better than last year BUT still needs improvement

I think our Offensive coaching is better than last year.

I think our special teams are better than last year EXCEPT for kick offs that rarely reach the other team's end zone. .

I do think our QB is phenomenal and would show it better if our receivers would learn to catch. In both of our two games. Cal left points on the field because of poor pass catching. We MUST improve our pass catching or jKS may decide to look for a team that has receivers who can catch.

---

What I would say to you is go back and watch last year's team play two games. Compare 2024 playing against Oregon State vs. 2025 playing against Oregon State. No reason so far to think OSU has improved. Then Compare 2024 against Davis to 2025 against Texas Southern. That is the only comp on the two schedules though Davis was a substantially better team than Texas Southern.

Are we better in these two games? Have we improved or are we just playing worse opponents now as we do at the beginning of every year.

This seems to be what we do every year. We play a crappy non-conference schedule and then say we have improved because we are comparing to the entire prior season when we played actual real teams.

We may be improved but we haven't shown it yet. We are playing August/September Wilcox ball awaiting to see if we will play October/November Wilcox ball or something better.

---

Agreed, although I think this non-conference game will be telling. Looking at records so far, I'd actually be more surprised by a Cal win than a loss. Oregon State is not a good team - losing at home to a bad Fresno State team proved that. Texas Southern is not a good team even by FCS standards. For Minnesota, Buffalo is actually a very good team - probably better than Oregon State and certainly stronger than Texas Southern. Meanwhile they pummeled Northwestern State and looked much better doing that than Cal did against Texas Southern.

A Cal win would warrant some optimism for the rest of the year. A Cal loss and I fully expect yet another mediocre season.

---

I mean you probably only think Buffalo is very good because they played Minnesota tight. And while OSU losing to Fresno St. was bad, they dominated the game statistically and not having a long snapper lost them the game. So, there's very little actual data to go on and you're filling in some gaps that can prove to just be noise.

You can just as easily make the point that "wow Cal defense really held a potent OSU team in check" and Minnesota isn't as good as their record indicates because "they let Buffalo hang around for way too long"

---

I think Buffalo is good because last year the new coaching staff went 9-4, brought back a lot of production, and they're projected to be a top-three team in the MAC again this year. As to Oregon State, they did not look good against us. I've also watched Freson State and don't believe they're that strong - particularly their line play.

Yes, the data is sparse, particularly in this new world of massive roster turnover. That's probably why the line is where it is. From my perspective though, Minnesota is coming in with the stronger resume. That's why I would be pleasantly surprised with a win and allow myself some optimism for the rest of the season (as dangerous as that is every year for a Cal fan!).

---

I agree that the resume for Minnesota is stronger. But not by a lot. This is a Cal home game and that needs to make a difference. A Cal win should not be considered a pleasant surprise IMO. This is by nearly every metric a close game on paper.

Close games can turn on very little. The home crowd needs to both inspire and motivate the Bears but make life difficult for a RS Frosh QB making his first road start.

The real concern I have is that Minnesota under Fleck seems to play closer to their potential and ability more often than Cal has under Wilcox. Cal played flat vs TSU. They need to be ready from the start. Minnesota is unlikely to beat themselves. Cal will need to make some plays to win. Very interested in the gameplan on both sides of the ball for the Bears.

---

Cal fans don't know when to yell and, if they did know, they wouldn't do it, since it would be inhospitable. Cal fans don't want to be seen as crass or uncivil.

Nonetheless, Cal by 10.

---

So the team who went 2-6 in the ACC, beating only the two second to last place teams and losing to everyone else including giving the last place team its only win, and who lost almost their entire offense is going to win by 2 scores against the team that that was 5-4 in the Big 10 and didn't lose nearly as much talent and we are expressing disdain for Minnesota being too optimistic in their predictions.

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I've been a sucker for punishment for 60 years. Why stop now? No one pays attention anyways. When I call an upset, you ever see anyone say "Good call, Rushin!"?

BearlyCareAnymore said:

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Rushinbear said:

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6956bear said:

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HKBear97! said:

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ac_green33 said:

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HKBear97! said:

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BearlyCareAnymore said:

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GivemTheAxe said:

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StillNoStanfurdium said:

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MinotStateBeav said:

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If I watched Cal last week, I'd feel pretty confident too lol. I'd say Cal's defense is solid but their offense can't run the ball and WRs that can't get open.

---

I feel like it's more accurate to say after watching our last game that we actually might have a running back in Raphael (131 yds, 7.3 avg) and that our WRs can get open enough but can't catch.

---

I think our OL is better than last year BUT still needs improvement

I think our Offensive coaching is better than last year.

I think our special teams are better than last year EXCEPT for kick offs that rarely reach the other team's end zone. .

I do think our QB is phenomenal and would show it better if our receivers would learn to catch. In both of our two games. Cal left points on the field because of poor pass catching. We MUST improve our pass catching or jKS may decide to look for a team that has receivers who can catch.

---

What I would say to you is go back and watch last year's team play two games. Compare 2024 playing against Oregon State vs. 2025 playing against Oregon State. No reason so far to think OSU has improved. Then Compare 2024 against Davis to 2025 against Texas Southern. That is the only comp on the two schedules though Davis was a substantially better team than Texas Southern.

Are we better in these two games? Have we improved or are we just playing worse opponents now as we do at the beginning of every year.

This seems to be what we do every year. We play a crappy non-conference schedule and then say we have improved because we are comparing to the entire prior season when we played actual real teams.

We may be improved but we haven't shown it yet. We are playing August/September Wilcox ball awaiting to see if we will play October/November Wilcox ball or something better.

---

Agreed, although I think this non-conference game will be telling. Looking at records so far, I'd actually be more surprised by a Cal win than a loss. Oregon State is not a good team - losing at home to a bad Fresno State team proved that. Texas Southern is not a good team even by FCS standards. For Minnesota, Buffalo is actually a very good team - probably better than Oregon State and certainly stronger than Texas Southern. Meanwhile they pummeled Northwestern State and looked much better doing that than Cal did against Texas Southern.

A Cal win would warrant some optimism for the rest of the year. A Cal loss and I fully expect yet another mediocre season.

---

I mean you probably only think Buffalo is very good because they played Minnesota tight. And while OSU losing to Fresno St. was bad, they dominated the game statistically and not having a long snapper lost them the game. So, there's very little actual data to go on and you're filling in some gaps that can prove to just be noise.

You can just as easily make the point that "wow Cal defense really held a potent OSU team in check" and Minnesota isn't as good as their record indicates because "they let Buffalo hang around for way too long"

---

I think Buffalo is good because last year the new coaching staff went 9-4, brought back a lot of production, and they're projected to be a top-three team in the MAC again this year. As to Oregon State, they did not look good against us. I've also watched Freson State and don't believe they're that strong - particularly their line play.

Yes, the data is sparse, particularly in this new world of massive roster turnover. That's probably why the line is where it is. From my perspective though, Minnesota is coming in with the stronger resume. That's why I would be pleasantly surprised with a win and allow myself some optimism for the rest of the season (as dangerous as that is every year for a Cal fan!).

---

I agree that the resume for Minnesota is stronger. But not by a lot. This is a Cal home game and that needs to make a difference. A Cal win should not be considered a pleasant surprise IMO. This is by nearly every metric a close game on paper.

Close games can turn on very little. The home crowd needs to both inspire and motivate the Bears but make life difficult for a RS Frosh QB making his first road start.

The real concern I have is that Minnesota under Fleck seems to play closer to their potential and ability more often than Cal has under Wilcox. Cal played flat vs TSU. They need to be ready from the start. Minnesota is unlikely to beat themselves. Cal will need to make some plays to win. Very interested in the gameplan on both sides of the ball for the Bears.

---

Cal fans don't know when to yell and, if they did know, they wouldn't do it, since it would be inhospitable. Cal fans don't want to be seen as crass or uncivil.

Nonetheless, Cal by 10.

---

So the team who went 2-6 in the ACC, beating only the two second to last place teams and losing to everyone else including giving the last place team its only win, and who lost almost their entire offense is going to win by 2 scores against the team that that was 5-4 in the Big 10 and didn't lose nearly as much talent and we are expressing disdain for Minnesota being too optimistic in their predictions.

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^ Yes, exactly!

calumnus said:

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BearlyCareAnymore said:

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Bearly Clad said:

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BearlyCareAnymore said:

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GivemTheAxe said:

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StillNoStanfurdium said:

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MinotStateBeav said:

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If I watched Cal last week, I'd feel pretty confident too lol. I'd say Cal's defense is solid but their offense can't run the ball and WRs that can't get open.

---

I feel like it's more accurate to say after watching our last game that we actually might have a running back in Raphael (131 yds, 7.3 avg) and that our WRs can get open enough but can't catch.

---

I think our OL is better than last year BUT still needs improvement

I think our Offensive coaching is better than last year.

I think our special teams are better than last year EXCEPT for kick offs that rarely reach the other team's end zone. .

I do think our QB is phenomenal and would show it better if our receivers would learn to catch. In both of our two games. Cal left points on the field because of poor pass catching. We MUST improve our pass catching or jKS may decide to look for a team that has receivers who can catch.

---

What I would say to you is go back and watch last year's team play two games. Compare 2024 playing against Oregon State vs. 2025 playing against Oregon State. No reason so far to think OSU has improved. Then Compare 2024 against Davis to 2025 against Texas Southern. That is the only comp on the two schedules though Davis was a substantially better team than Texas Southern.

Are we better in these two games? Have we improved or are we just playing worse opponents now as we do at the beginning of every year.

This seems to be what we do every year. We play a crappy non-conference schedule and then say we have improved because we are comparing to the entire prior season when we played actual real teams.

We may be improved but we haven't shown it yet. We are playing August/September Wilcox ball awaiting to see if we will play October/November Wilcox ball or something better.

---

That's fair to say and to temper expectations but I think the reason for optimism is that we are clearly improved at a few key spots. OL play is looking much better, at this point last year we had given up 3 sacks and 14 TFLs, this year it's 1 sack and 7 TFLs; we all knew OL was a weakness and it finally looks like we're improved at the most important position on the field.

We are not clearly improved at those spots WHEN YOU COMPARE THEM AGAINST THE SAME COMPETITION. Last year at this time we had played UC Davis, who is significantly better than Texas Southern, and Auburn, who is significantly better than OSU, especially on defense. you should be comparing OSU to OSU, not OSU to Auburn

UCD (2024) - 1 sack, 6 TFL's

Tex So. 2025 - 1 sack, 3 TFL's


OSU (2024) - 0 sacks, 4 TFL's

OSU (2025) - 0 sacks, 4 TFL's

So you are hanging your hat on a superior FCS opponent in 2024 getting 3 more TFL's than an inferior FCS opponent in 2025. Our stats against OSU are identical.


Speaking of important positions, QB is vastly improved over last year.

That statement is patently ridiculous both from an eyeball test perspective and from a statistical perspective. I am encouraged by JKS' start, but there is no way he has been better than an experienced Mendoza from last year:

UCD 2024 Cal QBR (starter) - 59.1
Tex Southern (2025) Cal (starter) QBR - 18.4

OSU 2024 Cal QBR (starter)- 86.8
OSU 2025 Cal QBR - (starter) - 64.2




And our Special Teams which was an Achilles heel and cost us a handful of games last year alone, looks like they finally righted the ship and have even been a strength through two weeks.

Tend to agree, but even there our field goal kicking last year was perfect against Davis and OSU (7 for 7 on field goals, 7 for 7 on XP) which may have something to do with having zero physical pressure on the kicks and zero psychological pressure on the situation.

So this may be fool's gold, and we may not be much improved much or at all, but the reasons for optimism this time around are that we finally found some success at the most important positions, we fixed some glaring and repeated weaknesses, and some of our question mark spots heading into the season have been answered (namely DB where we had to reload the whole unit).

You only think this because to my original point, you are comparing this year's team after only playing dogmeat to last year's team where all the weaknesses were exposed through the season. The lousy OL last year played just as well as this year's teams in these comparable games and the QB play was significantly better. This year's team has not had the opportunity to either prove themselves or be exposed against quality competition.

Again, we have played August/September Wilcox football.

---

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Mendoza had great games against Davis and OSU, but Sagapolutele's numbers would be MUCH better without all the drops and tips. The WR unit is clearly a downgrade from last year. I don't know how well they block, but route running and catching are job 1 for a WR. I would be far more confident if Sagapolutele were throwing to Hunter, Endries, Brady, Matthews, Grizzell….

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Well, Hamper caught 48 balls last year, so I assume he, at least, can catch. I don't know about the other guys. I originally thought Grizzell was the classic possession-type receiver, but he occasionally lets balls go through his hands and last year, he was an ineffective blocker, despite being a big WR.

HearstMining said:

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calumnus said:

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BearlyCareAnymore said:

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Bearly Clad said:

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BearlyCareAnymore said:

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GivemTheAxe said:

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StillNoStanfurdium said:

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MinotStateBeav said:

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If I watched Cal last week, I'd feel pretty confident too lol. I'd say Cal's defense is solid but their offense can't run the ball and WRs that can't get open.

---

I feel like it's more accurate to say after watching our last game that we actually might have a running back in Raphael (131 yds, 7.3 avg) and that our WRs can get open enough but can't catch.

---

I think our OL is better than last year BUT still needs improvement

I think our Offensive coaching is better than last year.

I think our special teams are better than last year EXCEPT for kick offs that rarely reach the other team's end zone. .

I do think our QB is phenomenal and would show it better if our receivers would learn to catch. In both of our two games. Cal left points on the field because of poor pass catching. We MUST improve our pass catching or jKS may decide to look for a team that has receivers who can catch.

---

What I would say to you is go back and watch last year's team play two games. Compare 2024 playing against Oregon State vs. 2025 playing against Oregon State. No reason so far to think OSU has improved. Then Compare 2024 against Davis to 2025 against Texas Southern. That is the only comp on the two schedules though Davis was a substantially better team than Texas Southern.

Are we better in these two games? Have we improved or are we just playing worse opponents now as we do at the beginning of every year.

This seems to be what we do every year. We play a crappy non-conference schedule and then say we have improved because we are comparing to the entire prior season when we played actual real teams.

We may be improved but we haven't shown it yet. We are playing August/September Wilcox ball awaiting to see if we will play October/November Wilcox ball or something better.

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That's fair to say and to temper expectations but I think the reason for optimism is that we are clearly improved at a few key spots. OL play is looking much better, at this point last year we had given up 3 sacks and 14 TFLs, this year it's 1 sack and 7 TFLs; we all knew OL was a weakness and it finally looks like we're improved at the most important position on the field.

We are not clearly improved at those spots WHEN YOU COMPARE THEM AGAINST THE SAME COMPETITION. Last year at this time we had played UC Davis, who is significantly better than Texas Southern, and Auburn, who is significantly better than OSU, especially on defense. you should be comparing OSU to OSU, not OSU to Auburn

UCD (2024) - 1 sack, 6 TFL's

Tex So. 2025 - 1 sack, 3 TFL's


OSU (2024) - 0 sacks, 4 TFL's

OSU (2025) - 0 sacks, 4 TFL's

So you are hanging your hat on a superior FCS opponent in 2024 getting 3 more TFL's than an inferior FCS opponent in 2025. Our stats against OSU are identical.


Speaking of important positions, QB is vastly improved over last year.

That statement is patently ridiculous both from an eyeball test perspective and from a statistical perspective. I am encouraged by JKS' start, but there is no way he has been better than an experienced Mendoza from last year:

UCD 2024 Cal QBR (starter) - 59.1
Tex Southern (2025) Cal (starter) QBR - 18.4

OSU 2024 Cal QBR (starter)- 86.8
OSU 2025 Cal QBR - (starter) - 64.2




And our Special Teams which was an Achilles heel and cost us a handful of games last year alone, looks like they finally righted the ship and have even been a strength through two weeks.

Tend to agree, but even there our field goal kicking last year was perfect against Davis and OSU (7 for 7 on field goals, 7 for 7 on XP) which may have something to do with having zero physical pressure on the kicks and zero psychological pressure on the situation.

So this may be fool's gold, and we may not be much improved much or at all, but the reasons for optimism this time around are that we finally found some success at the most important positions, we fixed some glaring and repeated weaknesses, and some of our question mark spots heading into the season have been answered (namely DB where we had to reload the whole unit).

You only think this because to my original point, you are comparing this year's team after only playing dogmeat to last year's team where all the weaknesses were exposed through the season. The lousy OL last year played just as well as this year's teams in these comparable games and the QB play was significantly better. This year's team has not had the opportunity to either prove themselves or be exposed against quality competition.

Again, we have played August/September Wilcox football.

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Mendoza had great games against Davis and OSU, but Sagapolutele's numbers would be MUCH better without all the drops and tips. The WR unit is clearly a downgrade from last year. I don't know how well they block, but route running and catching are job 1 for a WR. I would be far more confident if Sagapolutele were throwing to Hunter, Endries, Brady, Matthews, Grizzell….

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Well, Hamper caught 48 balls last year, so I assume he, at least, can catch. I don't know about the other guys. I originally thought Grizzell was the classic possession-type receiver, but he occasionally lets balls go through his hands and last year, he was an ineffective blocker, despite being a big WR.

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Hamper was an unrated ATH out of West Linn, Oregon who signed with Idaho over Portland State, Sac State and Air Force. Idaho's top WR, Dwyer, with 78 catches 1.192 yards and 12 TDs went to TCU. Hamper had fewer catches (48) but his 966 yards gives him 20.1 YPC which was better than Dwyer. 48 catches in 14 games last year at Idaho including his best game, 8 catches for 187 yards in Idaho's win over Weber State.

In our game against Idaho 2 years ago Hamper did not have any catches and it appears he did not play. He only played in 4 games and had 4 catches for a total of 26 yards that year. He probably liked what he saw at Cal though. He originally was going to transfer to Wisconsin but switched to us when we offered instead. He does look to be one of our best WRs so far this year.

Our starter at TE, Mason Mini, also transfered from Idaho, he had 5 catches for them last year. He was an N.A. out of Pacifica, the #450 rated player in California, with interest from Cal Poly, Eastern Oregon Eastern Washington, but Idaho was his only offer. He originally was going to transfer to Michigan State, but he transferrd home to Cal instead when we offered.

Grizzell was an unrated walk on at Cal with no offers out of Park City, Utah. He has been a steady player for us. Last year he was 5th in receptions, but 3rd in receiving yards. The year before he was 2nd in receptions and receiving yards after appear in 2 games with no receptions as a freshman.

Those three are all big targets.

The small 5'7 170 fast guy is De Jesus. An unrated player out of Manteca, he went to Modesto JC, then transfered as a junior to UNLV (his only other offer was Morehead State). He was UNLV's second WR last year with 36 catches in 13 games for 512 yards and 3 TDs. #1, Ricky White, was drafted by the Seahawks in the 7th round. Even though De Jesus only averaged 39 receiving yards per game, he excelled as UNLVs primary kick and punt returner.

Cal fans saw him in action in UNLV's 24-13 LA Bowl victory over the Bears. De Jesus had 2 catches for 38 yards and 1 TD, 2 rushes for 2 yards total, a kick return for 27 yards and 3 punt returns for 75 yards.

I am worried that this might be our worst matchup of the entire season and that Minnesota pass rush will be the most disruptive of the year and catch JKS at early career more prone to mistakes. I hope home field makes a difference, but this is the game I think might make us prematurely pessimistic about the team that will improve and still will have a chance to rebound to 9-3 (maybe 10-2 with some luck). Cade being out a half could prove fatal.

SLTX Bear said:

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blungld said:

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I am worried that this might be our worst matchup of the entire season and that Minnesota pass rush will be the most disruptive of the year and catch JKS at early career more prone to mistakes. I hope home field makes a difference, but this is the game I think might make us prematurely pessimistic about the team that will improve and still will have a chance to rebound to 9-3 (maybe 10-2 with some luck). Cade being out a half could prove fatal.

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My personal opinion is that their QB is just as likely to be overwhelmed in this game as JKS is, maybe more likely. We'll just have to see. He played an FCS team last week, that prior to week 1, had not won a single game since 2022. Against Buffalo at home he did not look great. This is a tough matchup to call.

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I'm also encouraged that he's apparently not super mobile.

Minnesota gets a lot of credit for having a tough dline, but mcculloch actually leads the country in hurries. I think we can put a lot of pressure on their young QB

ducky23 said:

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SLTX Bear said:

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blungld said:

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I am worried that this might be our worst matchup of the entire season and that Minnesota pass rush will be the most disruptive of the year and catch JKS at early career more prone to mistakes. I hope home field makes a difference, but this is the game I think might make us prematurely pessimistic about the team that will improve and still will have a chance to rebound to 9-3 (maybe 10-2 with some luck). Cade being out a half could prove fatal.

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My personal opinion is that their QB is just as likely to be overwhelmed in this game as JKS is, maybe more likely. We'll just have to see. He played an FCS team last week, that prior to week 1, had not won a single game since 2022. Against Buffalo at home he did not look great. This is a tough matchup to call.

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I'm also encouraged that he's apparently not super mobile.

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The Statue of Liberty isn't very mobile, but that doesn't mean she's easy to tackle. Lindsey is a big strong kid at 6-5, 230.

bearsandgiants said:

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chazzed said:

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Uluave's impending first-half absence worries me quite a bit.

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at least we'll avoid him getting flagged for targeting

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okaydo said:

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Grigsby said:

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MiZery said:

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Is there something that I am missing? Game seems to be a toss up.

https://gopherhole.com/boards/threads/predict-the-score-thread-minnesota-at-cal.119322/

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Did you forget who is coaching this team?

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Yes, Justin Wilcox, who has a 66.67% winning percentage in nonconference games.

Wilcox, more often than not, looks impressive in the 3 nonconference games to start off the year, which leads us into being confident in the team, which leads us to inevitable disappointment.

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well, I hope I'm wrong.

okaydo said:

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okaydo said:

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Grigsby said:

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MiZery said:

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Is there something that I am missing? Game seems to be a toss up.

https://gopherhole.com/boards/threads/predict-the-score-thread-minnesota-at-cal.119322/

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Did you forget who is coaching this team?

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Yes, Justin Wilcox, who has a 66.67% winning percentage in nonconference games.

Wilcox, more often than not, looks impressive in the 3 nonconference games to start off the year, which leads us into being confident in the team, which leads us to inevitable disappointment.

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well, I hope I'm wrong.

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Same here! Reading the espn.com write up on the game and they ended "the takeaway" with this:

California: The Bears started 3-0 for the second straight season and fifth time in nine years under coach Justin Wilcox. Now Cal needs to carry that over for the rest of the season. The Bears haven't finished with a winning record since going 8-5 in 2019.

Either way, good win - Minnesota is decent team. And the schedule looks very manageable for the rest of the year.

HKBear97! said:

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okaydo said:

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okaydo said:

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Grigsby said:

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MiZery said:

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Is there something that I am missing? Game seems to be a toss up.

https://gopherhole.com/boards/threads/predict-the-score-thread-minnesota-at-cal.119322/

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Did you forget who is coaching this team?

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Yes, Justin Wilcox, who has a 66.67% winning percentage in nonconference games.

Wilcox, more often than not, looks impressive in the 3 nonconference games to start off the year, which leads us into being confident in the team, which leads us to inevitable disappointment.

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well, I hope I'm wrong.

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Same here! Reading the espn.com write up on the game and they ended "the takeaway" with this:

California: The Bears started 3-0 for the second straight season and fifth time in nine years under coach Justin Wilcox. Now Cal needs to carry that over for the rest of the season. The Bears haven't finished with a winning record since going 8-5 in 2019.

Either way, good win - Minnesota is decent team. And the schedule looks very manageable for the rest of the year.

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Given the schedule, we should win 10. Only Louisville on the road and maybe SMU at home are comparable to Minnesota. We just really need to avoid the Wilcoxian loss to a conference team with no other wins. This year there will be a lot of candidates.

The difference this year hopefully will be Sagapolutele's confidence and poise. He is a winner.

Grigsby said:

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MiZery said:

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Is there something that I am missing? Game seems to be a toss up.

https://gopherhole.com/boards/threads/predict-the-score-thread-minnesota-at-cal.119322/

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Did you forget who is coaching this team?

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The victorious coach that's who

falseintellect said:

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bearsandgiants said:

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falseintellect said:

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Fans are always confident. I like Minn though, similar type of program like Cal where they can not and will not ever compete at the highest level but can occasionally have good teams that can win 9-10 games. No idea how good either team really is though given the opponents.

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this isn't true. We can, and have, competed at the highest level. And we're attempting to once again. If you can't, ever, there's no point in playing the game.

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Huh? When was that? In the last century?

No. Cal is not competing at the highest level and never will. We've literally stuck with the worst coach in FBS for almost a decade. Cal fandom is about trying to find a little bit of occasional fun, like gameday last year.

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Yeah, this "worst coach" just got a win that reminded me of some of the great JT teams. What's that a fluke?