How will the remaining games play out-

3,649 Views | 66 Replies | Last: 15 hrs ago by concordtom
SouthKBear
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I honestly don't know what I want anymore. I want Wilcox gone, that's for sure. I was us to get a good coach when there are a variety to pick from, not bottom of the barrel when they are all gone. Winning out might keep JKS but we don't know what he'll decide at the end. But my guesses, based off past years and current play, are as follows:

Virginia tech - Win ( close win)
Virginia- Loss
Louisville - Loss (decisively)
Stanford- Loss (we play fast in beginning and then off the pedal and blown out all phases last 2 1/2 quarters)
SMU- Loss (close loss but by 9 pts)

I can see us winning 7 games total, perhaps to SMU, but I do think this is the year we lose to Stanford. And past Wilcox practices is too loose 5 straight.
concordtom
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It's so funny to me.
To all those who want to fire Wilcox, what makes you think that the next coach is going to produce more wins?

And, just how many wins do you need each season in order to stop calling for (whatever coach) to be fired?

Just come out and say it:

"I must win X games in order to be satisfied with Cal football.
Otherwise, I'm going to kick the cat, spit at the garbageman, and log in to BearInsider and complain."
Bobodeluxe
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I think things are swell.
BearoutEast67
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Only time will tell.
Roll on you Bears!
bluehenbear
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All of them are *no better* than toss ups.
DaveT
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concordtom said:

It's so funny to me.
To all those who want to fire Wilcox, what makes you think that the next coach is going to produce more wins?


I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
annarborbear
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In the previous environment, you could accept mediocrity and occasionally bring in a new coach. In the new professional environment, where you have to have major revenue to continue, we have no choice but to try to do better than the Wilcox record and the level of talent that he has been bringing in.
burritos
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SouthKBear said:

I honestly don't know what I want anymore. I want Wilcox gone, that's for sure. I was us to get a good coach when there are a variety to pick from, not bottom of the barrel when they are all gone. Winning out might keep JKS but we don't know what he'll decide at the end. But my guesses, based off past years and current play, are as follows:

Virginia tech - Win ( close win)
Virginia- Loss
Louisville - Loss (decisively)
Stanford- Loss (we play fast in beginning and then off the pedal and blown out all phases last 2 1/2 quarters)
SMU- Loss (close loss but by 9 pts)

I can see us winning 7 games total, perhaps to SMU, but I do think this is the year we lose to Stanford. And past Wilcox practices is too loose 5 straight.

This is my expectation, unfortunately.
Big C
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concordtom said:

It's so funny to me.
To all those who want to fire Wilcox, what makes you think that the next coach is going to produce more wins?

And, just how many wins do you need each season in order to stop calling for (whatever coach) to be fired?

Just come out and say it:

"I must win X games in order to be satisfied with Cal football.
Otherwise, I'm going to kick the cat, spit at the garbageman, and log in to BearInsider and complain."

1. When you're not winning very much, it pays to roll the dice and hope something good comes up.

2. 8-4 should be our average record, not our aspirational one.
burritos
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concordtom said:

It's so funny to me.
To all those who want to fire Wilcox, what makes you think that the next coach is going to produce more wins?

And, just how many wins do you need each season in order to stop calling for (whatever coach) to be fired?

Just come out and say it:

"I must win X games in order to be satisfied with Cal football.
Otherwise, I'm going to kick the cat, spit at the garbageman, and log in to BearInsider and complain."

As a Cal fan, minus 2 Snyder years, 4 Tedford years, and 1 Mooch year, people have wanted the state of affairs rectified with a new coach.
Anarchistbear
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2-3 doesn't matter against whom
Finnish Oski
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Quote:

It's so funny to me.
To all those who want to fire Wilcox, what makes you think that the next coach is going to produce more wins?

Absolutely. If next year Cal goes 2-10 under Wilcox we should hang on to him for dear life because the next coach could go 1-11. Never try for anything better in life because you could get worse.
okaydo
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Virginia Tech - Win
Virginia - Win
Louisville - Win
Stanford - Win
SMU - Win
BearlyCareAnymore
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concordtom said:

It's so funny to me.
To all those who want to fire Wilcox, what makes you think that the next coach is going to produce more wins?

And, just how many wins do you need each season in order to stop calling for (whatever coach) to be fired?

Just come out and say it:

"I must win X games in order to be satisfied with Cal football.
Otherwise, I'm going to kick the cat, spit at the garbageman, and log in to BearInsider and complain."

I don't know. I have been long and loud on here that Cal needs up its support. But you have to try. I supported the Wilcox hire. I thought it was risky, but the type of profile that was Cal's best option at the time. It hasn't worked.

How many wins? Geez this is absolutely ridiculous Tom. He is 47-52 overall with a lot of his wins beating up on FCS or G5 opponents. He is 25 and 44 in conference. He has 8 losing records in conference in 8 tries. In the last 4 years we have beaten 2 FBS teams who ended the season with a winning record and that was 7-5 in each case. So my first answer is MORE THAN THAT! Frankly it is the dumbest, most idiotic, most moronic, I am running out of adjectives for absolutely stupid and brain dead asinine but that description deserves a thousand more words, to bang on people for wanting better than that. If you are okay with that then you should stop watching college football and leave it to the adults who understand that this isn't 6 year old peewee soccer. (which is what you should change your viewing habits to). Cal football lost $10M the last year finances have been reported. Cal sports lost $60M. For that price, we should expect more. He makes $5M and for that price he gets to have people call for a change when he sucks. And he sucks by any measure.

No one should have to answer your idiotic question because whether they think the answer is 13-0 and a natty every year or they think the answer is .500 in conference or they think the answer is 26-43, he hasn't made it to that level. But I will answer the question for me.

At this point I will take the equivalent of Ben Braun's first 10 years. In his first 10 years Braun finished 12-6, 8-10, 8-10, 7-9, 11-7, 12-6, 13-5, 9-9, 6-12, 12-6. Nothing spectacular. Half the time he finished with a winning record in conference. Half the time .500 or worse. He finished 2nd twice and 3rd twice (in a smaller conference). He had a .538 winning percentage in conference. We should strive for better, but basically, half of his seasons I had something reasonable to root for. Is that unreasonable for you. Because I think implying people should shut their mouths when their coach wins 36% of their conference games is pretty damned unreasonable.

Theder got fired after 4 seasons with a better conference record. Jeff Tedford got fired when he had a better conference record his last 4 years and he had a ton of good will going in. Gilby got fired after 4 years with basically the same record. Dykes got fired and he was doing better after the first year debacle. Cal hasn't exactly been demanding on their coaches. Wilcox should have been fired minimum 2 years ago.

We have played 1 good game this year. And that is on top of 8 crappy years. So my answer for Wilcox, this year. 11 wins not including a bowl game.

concordtom
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Well, at the very least that was entertaining!
calumnus
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According to Sagarin, we, the #81 team, just beat the #90 team by 3 points despite having a 4.16 point home field advantage.

Our record this year and last is entirely a function of having the easiest two schedules in 100 years of Cal football. If we were just mediocre (#50) we should be undefeated. The losses were inexcusable.

We are the #131 rushing team in the country despite facing some really mediocre/bad defenses. So we are forced to pass, but we lack talent at WR and our OL cannot provide protection. This is 100% due to offensive staff running off our skill position coaches and best skill players and inability to recruit adequate replacements.

Our receivers are guys from FCS Idaho (and the best, Mini, only had 5 catches there last year), a 5'5 guy from MWC, but the best are our former walkons brought in by the former coaches who are now seniors.

With no threat from the running game and the OL unable to provide much protection, our slow/small WRs are unable to get open and Sagapolutele has run for his life and has to force the ball into incredibly small windows.

Sagapolutele, and our DBs, and some good fortune, playing against really weak competition, account for our seemingly "good" 5-2 record. Sagarin correctly recognizes that we are not good.
RedlessWardrobe
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concordtom said:

It's so funny to me.
To all those who want to fire Wilcox, what makes you think that the next coach is going to produce more wins?

And, just how many wins do you need each season in order to stop calling for (whatever coach) to be fired?

Just come out and say it:

"I must win X games in order to be satisfied with Cal football.
Otherwise, I'm going to kick the cat, spit at the garbageman, and log in to BearInsider and complain."

To answer this, let me start by saying, what makes you think the next coach we would hire would be any worse?

Secondly, "I" don't win the games, that's done by the team under the leadership of the coach. Ultimately the number of wins that would satisfy me would depend on the schedule. Under any circumstances 7 is mandatory because it means a winning season. In most cases 9 or 10 would be really the goal. I was hoping that on with this years schedule that we could get 10 but 9 was what I expected. Duke proved to be better than I thought, but I don't understand after watching the SDSU game how anyone would be satisfied with Wilcox. After several years of this, I think it's time for a change.
TedfordTheGreat
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concordtom said:

It's so funny to me.
To all those who want to fire Wilcox, what makes you think that the next coach is going to produce more wins?

And, just how many wins do you need each season in order to stop calling for (whatever coach) to be fired?

Just come out and say it:

"I must win X games in order to be satisfied with Cal football.
Otherwise, I'm going to kick the cat, spit at the garbageman, and log in to BearInsider and complain."

well i am a nobody so i don't know why you want any of us to come out and say it, but ok sure, i will do that

We must win 9 to 10 games with our schedule in order for me to be satisfied with Cal football. Our toughest game is against SMU and Virginia. If we cannot beat SMU, Louisville and Virginia in college football, schools with similarly limited resources i don't even know why we try.

I will add another note in there. We must also not lose to SDSU by a score of 0-34, a team with less fans, less money, less NIL, less coaching salary, less star players than Cal to be satisfied with Cal football. I expect us to win, i am annoyed if we lose 21-24, and i am extremely disgruntled if we lose 0-34

all in all, i am a happy guy in life. Life is great, but i have high expectations, looks like you don't. What's your criteria?
CarmelBear
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concordtom said:

It's so funny to me.
To all those who want to fire Wilcox, what makes you think that the next coach is going to produce more wins?

And, just how many wins do you need each season in order to stop calling for (whatever coach) to be fired?

Just come out and say it:

"I must win X games in order to be satisfied with Cal football.
Otherwise, I'm going to kick the cat, spit at the garbageman, and log in to BearInsider and complain."



It's about program survival. The next coach may not be better. Always a risk. Staying the course is as close to 100% certainty as you can get that Cal doesn't survive the next realignment. Seems to be tough concept for you.
sycasey
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At this point with all the time he's had to build a program, Wilcox should be able to win 9 games at least once. So that's what I would need to see, particularly against this easy schedule: 9 wins. If not, best wishes to him.

It's probably not happening.
TedfordTheGreat
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sycasey said:

At this point with all the time he's had to build a program, Wilcox should be able to win 9 games at least once. So that's what I would need to see, particularly against this easy schedule: 9 wins. If not, best wishes to him.

It's probably not happening.

i think we are pretty much all on the same page. I would be really curious what the OP's standards are. cal fans are some of the most logical bunches I have met because of our shared trauma in football. Nobody expects Wilcox to go 12-0, football is a funny game and sometimes you don't get the breaks.

We got all the breaks so far this year (muffed punt, punch out) and we lost 2 games we had no shot in winning. If he cannot win 9 or 10 then GTFO because he never will
BearlyCareAnymore
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concordtom said:

It's so funny to me.
To all those who want to fire Wilcox, what makes you think that the next coach is going to produce more wins?

And, just how many wins do you need each season in order to stop calling for (whatever coach) to be fired?

Just come out and say it:

"I must win X games in order to be satisfied with Cal football.
Otherwise, I'm going to kick the cat, spit at the garbageman, and log in to BearInsider and complain."


It's so funny to me.
To all one of you who want to keep Wilcox, what makes you think that keeping him is going to produce more wins?

And, just how many losses do you need each season in order to stop supporting a coach? How years without a winning record in conference?

Just come out and say it:

"He must lose X games in order to be un satisfied with Cal football. He must go X years without a winning record.
Otherwise, I'm going to sit here counting pink fluffy unicorns and be perfectly blissful spending 8 figures every year on this program and keep chastising others for not being zen about total failure.

You asked the other side. Now you answer. How bad does it have to get before we fire him? How low are your standards. We all know you wanted to get people to commit to unreasonable standards here. What are your unreasonably low standards. Because if you haven't got there yet, they are unreasonably low.
BearlyCareAnymore
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concordtom said:

Well, at the very least that was entertaining!


Glad to entertain you. You embarrass me, concordtomholmoe. No Cal fan should post what you did.
CarmelBear
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BearlyCareAnymore said:

concordtom said:

Well, at the very least that was entertaining!


Glad to entertain you. You embarrass me, concordtomholmoe. No Cal fan should post what you did.


Truth. Demonstrating his love of being ignorant and obtuse.
72CalBear
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sycasey said:

At this point with all the time he's had to build a program, Wilcox should be able to win 9 games at least once. So that's what I would need to see, particularly against this easy schedule: 9 wins. If not, best wishes to him.

It's probably not happening.

"All the time he's had to build a program?" The Bears started the season with 40 new players vs Oregon State. I know all the teams have new players, but we had alot and maybe just now they are starting to get it. I really don't know how coaches (including high schools now) can build continuity and cohesion with so many new players filtering in.
Bring back bottled beer and cigars at CMS. Should get us back in the Rose Bowl!
calumnus
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72CalBear said:

sycasey said:

At this point with all the time he's had to build a program, Wilcox should be able to win 9 games at least once. So that's what I would need to see, particularly against this easy schedule: 9 wins. If not, best wishes to him.

It's probably not happening.

"All the time he's had to build a program?" The Bears started the season with 40 new players vs Oregon State. I know all the teams have new players, but we had alot and maybe just now they are starting to get it. I really don't know how coaches (including high schools now) can build continuity and cohesion with so many new players filtering in.


The reason we lost nearly our entire offense and replaced them with lower rated guys was because of the coaches Wilcox hired and the coaches they in turn fired (and hired). You can't turn around and make that an excuse.

We are currently the #131 rushing offense. How much more practice does it take to get better?

However, if your hypothesis were correct we would see improved play as the season progresses. I have not seen any improvement. Our best game was easily Minnesota. We just barely beat a bad and reeling UNC team at home. They had the second half momentum and choked.
sycasey
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72CalBear said:

sycasey said:

At this point with all the time he's had to build a program, Wilcox should be able to win 9 games at least once. So that's what I would need to see, particularly against this easy schedule: 9 wins. If not, best wishes to him.

It's probably not happening.

"All the time he's had to build a program?" The Bears started the season with 40 new players vs Oregon State. I know all the teams have new players, but we had alot and maybe just now they are starting to get it. I really don't know how coaches (including high schools now) can build continuity and cohesion with so many new players filtering in.

Why did we have to bring in a whole new roster? Because a bunch of players fled Wilcox's program in the offseason. He bears at least some responsibility for not being able to keep them.
sycasey
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calumnus said:

72CalBear said:

sycasey said:

At this point with all the time he's had to build a program, Wilcox should be able to win 9 games at least once. So that's what I would need to see, particularly against this easy schedule: 9 wins. If not, best wishes to him.

It's probably not happening.

"All the time he's had to build a program?" The Bears started the season with 40 new players vs Oregon State. I know all the teams have new players, but we had alot and maybe just now they are starting to get it. I really don't know how coaches (including high schools now) can build continuity and cohesion with so many new players filtering in.


The reason we lost nearly our entire offense and replaced them with lower rated guys was because of the coaches Wilcox hired and the coaches they in turn fired (and hired). You can't turn around and make that an excuse.

We are currently the #131 rushing offense. How much more practice does it take to get better?

However, if your hypothesis were correct we would see improved play as the season progresses. I have not seen any improvement. Our best game was easily Minnesota. We just barely beat a bad and reeling UNC team at home. They had the second half momentum and choked.

Our best two performances of the year are Game 1 (Oregon State) and Game 3 (Minnesota). Our worst performances are all in the last four. I don't see improvement happening.

This also matches the usual pattern under Wilcox: some good-looking early wins to build hope and then an October collapse. The weakness of our competition may be the only thing preventing total collapse again, but it hasn't looked good.
PAC-10-BEAR
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BearlyCareAnymore
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72CalBear said:

sycasey said:

At this point with all the time he's had to build a program, Wilcox should be able to win 9 games at least once. So that's what I would need to see, particularly against this easy schedule: 9 wins. If not, best wishes to him.

It's probably not happening.

"All the time he's had to build a program?" The Bears started the season with 40 new players vs Oregon State. I know all the teams have new players, but we had alot and maybe just now they are starting to get it. I really don't know how coaches (including high schools now) can build continuity and cohesion with so many new players filtering in.


You are mistaking building a team with building a program.


Yeah, you and I don't know how to do it with so much turnover, but there are plenty of guys who do. You build a program that does not rely on continuity of personnel. That is the new normal now for everyone. And it is only an excuse for the last couple years. And it is only as bad as it is this year because our players bailed on us after they saw in spring ball that nothing was changing.

Indiana has turned things around overnight. They had complete change in coaching staff and wholesale changes in the roster. How did they do it?

This video shows every pass play from Indiana's game with Michigan State. Look at how well constructed the offense is. Look how quick it is. How someone is almost always open. How completely picked apart MSU was (Indiana scored touchdowns on their first five drives. Indiana was us 2 years ago. Though it might not be fair given that Indiana has the current favorite to win the Heisman playing QB. I mean it's not like Wilcox has ever had someone like Indiana's qb on his roster.




Cal is not "getting it" now. You need to look at the competition. UNC is terrible. They beat Buffalo and Charlotte and got clobbered by every P4 team except us.
Bearspot
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SouthKBear said:

How will the remaining games play out-

I'm gonna go with the health and depth of Cal vs the health and depth of the remaining opponents.

At the beginning of the season, it was my understanding that this team had few expected stars but quite a bit of depth across the two-deep. Cal's lost McCulloch and Crosby, but is still in relatively good health vs the remainder of its opponents, except for SMU who is still pretty healthy. And just like in a single game where depth and health become a factor in the 4th quarter, it will be a factor in the "4th quarter" of the season where teams are dinged up. This could be a factor in the home stretch of the season. Cal S&C was a story in the off-season, but it's gonna matter a lot more later in the season. Gotta stay healthy Bears! And let's see if this team can outlast everybody remaining on its schedule. Just win!
TedfordTheGreat
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BearlyCareAnymore said:

72CalBear said:

sycasey said:

At this point with all the time he's had to build a program, Wilcox should be able to win 9 games at least once. So that's what I would need to see, particularly against this easy schedule: 9 wins. If not, best wishes to him.

It's probably not happening.

"All the time he's had to build a program?" The Bears started the season with 40 new players vs Oregon State. I know all the teams have new players, but we had alot and maybe just now they are starting to get it. I really don't know how coaches (including high schools now) can build continuity and cohesion with so many new players filtering in.


You are mistaking building a team with building a program.


Yeah, you and I don't know how to do it with so much turnover, but there are plenty of guys who do. You build a program that does not rely on continuity of personnel. That is the new normal now for everyone. And it is only an excuse for the last couple years. And it is only as bad as it is this year because our players bailed on us after they saw in spring ball that nothing was changing.

Indiana has turned things around overnight. They had complete change in coaching staff and wholesale changes in the roster. How did they do it?

This video shows every pass play from Indiana's game with Michigan State. Look at how well constructed the offense is. Look how quick it is. How someone is almost always open. How completely picked apart MSU was (Indiana scored touchdowns on their first five drives. Indiana was us 2 years ago. Though it might not be fair given that Indiana has the current favorite to win the Heisman playing QB. I mean it's not like Wilcox has ever had someone like Indiana's qb on his roster.




Cal is not "getting it" now. You need to look at the competition. UNC is terrible. They beat Buffalo and Charlotte and got clobbered by every P4 team except us.



bingo. 72calbear, I'm not bothered that you don't know how to figure it out cause you're just a fan. We gave 5 million reasons for Wilcox to figure it out for nine years straight and he never figured it out.

ucla's interim coach figured it out in less than seven days
sycasey
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Bearspot said:

SouthKBear said:

How will the remaining games play out-

I'm gonna go with the health and depth of Cal vs the health and depth of the remaining opponents.

At the beginning of the season, it was my understanding that this team had few expected stars but quite a bit of depth across the two-deep. Cal's lost McCulloch and Crosby, but is still in relatively good health vs the remainder of its opponents, except for SMU who is still pretty healthy. And just like in a single game where depth and health become a factor in the 4th quarter, it will be a factor in the "4th quarter" of the season where teams are dinged up. This could be a factor in the home stretch of the season. Cal S&C was a story in the off-season, but it's gonna matter a lot more later in the season. Gotta stay healthy Bears! And let's see if this team can outlast everybody remaining on its schedule. Just win!

One glimmer of hope is that if the common Wilcox pattern was to have an October collapse, it was also to have a partial recovery late in the season to salvage a .500 record. If that happens again maybe we can pull off that 9-win record I'd like to see, given that we have banked 5 wins already. But the schedule is also going to get tougher so I don't know about that.
BearlyCareAnymore
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PAC-10-BEAR said:




Stanford is 2-2 in conference. Their wins are against the two last place teams who are a combined 0-8.


Cal is 2-1 in conference. Their wins are against the last place teams who and the second to last place team who are a combined 0-6.


Not that it isn't hilarious that FSU immediately wet the bed and UNC completely tanked their program with a monumentally stupid coaching hire.
BearlyCareAnymore
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sycasey said:

Bearspot said:

SouthKBear said:

How will the remaining games play out-

I'm gonna go with the health and depth of Cal vs the health and depth of the remaining opponents.

At the beginning of the season, it was my understanding that this team had few expected stars but quite a bit of depth across the two-deep. Cal's lost McCulloch and Crosby, but is still in relatively good health vs the remainder of its opponents, except for SMU who is still pretty healthy. And just like in a single game where depth and health become a factor in the 4th quarter, it will be a factor in the "4th quarter" of the season where teams are dinged up. This could be a factor in the home stretch of the season. Cal S&C was a story in the off-season, but it's gonna matter a lot more later in the season. Gotta stay healthy Bears! And let's see if this team can outlast everybody remaining on its schedule. Just win!

One glimmer of hope is that if the common Wilcox pattern was to have an October collapse, it was also to have a partial recovery late in the season to salvage a .500 record. If that happens again maybe we can pull off that 9-win record I'd like to see, given that we have banked 5 wins already. But the schedule is also going to get tougher so I don't know about that.


I think the reason for his monthly record is the strength of schedule in those months, which isn't the same this year.
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