5-3 in ACC. 8-4 overall

Depending on how other teams in the league play- but best case scenario is a gator bowl victory.

Worst case would be a Sun Bowl

Would either of those bowls get JW another year?

MiZery said:

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5-3 in ACC. 8-4 overall

Depending on how other teams in the league play- but best case scenario is a gator bowl victory.

Worst case would be a Sun Bowl

Would either of those bowls get JW another year?

---

Another year? It'd get him another extension!

If they lose the next two.

Ron's going to give Wilcox another year.

Ron's getting paid close to $1Million a year to do so.

Two things:

1. You don't fire a coach after going 8-4 unless you are a blueblood
2. With this schedule, 8-4 does not move the needle so nothing's changed

So, bowl game swings it

Strykur said:

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Two things:

1. You don't fire a coach after going 8-4 unless you are a blueblood
2. With this schedule, 8-4 does not move the needle so nothing's changed

So, bowl game swings it

---

CAL isn't firing an 8-5 coach either. CAL isn't firing Justin Wilcox if he "loses out", and everyone knows it. All of this conjecture is masturbation.

ducktilldeath said:

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Strykur said:

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Two things:

1. You don't fire a coach after going 8-4 unless you are a blueblood
2. With this schedule, 8-4 does not move the needle so nothing's changed

So, bowl game swings it

---

CAL isn't firing an 8-5 coach either. CAL isn't firing Justin Wilcox if he "loses out", and everyone knows it. All of this conjecture is masturbation.

---

You're an ******* but you may be right on this one https://bearinsider.com/forums/2/topics/130710

MiZery said:

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5-3 in ACC. 8-4 overall

Depending on how other teams in the league play- but best case scenario is a gator bowl victory.

Worst case would be a Sun Bowl

Would either of those bowls get JW another year?

---

We are still in the Pac-12 for bowls this year.

Here is how Sagarin has us ranked currently;
1. Oregon 8-1 #3
2. Utah 7-2 #12
3. USC 7-2 #13
4. Washington 6-3 #25
5. ASU 6-3 #37
6. Arizona 6-3 #51
7. UCLA 3-6 #67
8. Cal 6-4 #69
9. WSU 4-5 #74

Oregon will be in the playoffs. USC and Utah are on the bubble, but most projections have them out. UCLA plays Ohio State next and will be eliminated from bowl eligibility. Washington State plays Louisiana Tech, James Madison and Oregon State and should get 2 or 3 wins.

That leaves 7 teams vying for 6 bowls:

Alamo vs Big 12
Holiday v ACC
Las Vegas v SEC
Sun v ACC
LA vs MWC
Independence v Big 12

I don't think we go to the Holliday or Sun to play another ACC team. I think USC, Utah or UW go there. If we win out we might be competing for the Las Vegas Bowl? Otherwise Alamo or Independence vs a Big 12 team seems very likely since I doubt they want Utah, ASU or Arizona there.

I'd bet a lot that Wilcox is safe if we beat Stanford. Ron and Lyons can say whatever they want about mediocrity not being acceptable but Cal would not fire a coach who had a winning regular season including a Big Game victory.

mizery, since both the stanford & smu games are important to you, r u gonna attend either game in person as a representative of cal's small but angry tv fan club??

will u guys be pregame tailgating or something together??

If we win at least one of the next two, and look great in both games, AND look great in the bowl game (win or lose), I could be convinced of giving Wilcox ONE more year to make it to the ACC title game. With the entire system still intact, it makes it easier to build on exactly what we need, keep who we need to keep, and build on what will clearly look like improved momentum. If we look unprepared or lack focus in any of the three games, it's time to move on. This actually seems like a team that might want to stick around for a year and prove something. If it's just going to be a bunch of portal-outs, though, we'd be insane to keep this going for another year and try to build something with the leftovers and a failed coach in his 10th year.

bearsandgiants said:

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If we win at least one of the next two, and look great in both games, AND look great in the bowl game (win or lose), I could be convinced of giving Wilcox ONE more year to make it to the ACC title game. With the entire system still intact, it makes it easier to build on exactly what we need, keep who we need to keep, and build on what will clearly look like improved momentum. If we look unprepared or lack focus in any of the three games, it's time to move on. This actually seems like a team that might want to stick around for a year and prove something. If it's just going to be a bunch of portal-outs, though, we'd be insane to keep this going for another year and try to build something with the leftovers and a failed coach in his 10th year.

---

+1

bearsandgiants said:

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If we win at least one of the next two, and look great in both games, AND look great in the bowl game (win or lose), I could be convinced of giving Wilcox ONE more year to make it to the ACC title game. With the entire system still intact, it makes it easier to build on exactly what we need, keep who we need to keep, and build on what will clearly look like improved momentum. If we look unprepared or lack focus in any of the three games, it's time to move on. This actually seems like a team that might want to stick around for a year and prove something. If it's just going to be a bunch of portal-outs, though, we'd be insane to keep this going for another year and try to build something with the leftovers and a failed coach in his 10th year.

---

You have to see how all major programs are impacted by the portal before using it as a measure with which to judge a coach or a staff.

The data isn't easy to find. According to Google, the Power 4 conferences had over 1,400 players transfer in and 3,700 total players entered the portal in FBS.

It only makes sense to use the portal against Wilcox if Cal loses 30+ players while the average ACC team loses less than 10 (as an example).

what happened to our offense in 2025 when Harsin was hired is not acceptable, but the offense has looked more dynamic than the typical Cal offense, so maybe we can manage to keep some of our studs and recruit a bit more talent on the offensive side to help complement.

Bowl game is irrelevant, an exhibition in which players choose to compete or not. If Wilcox beats Stanford he is certainly here next year.

ducktilldeath said:

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Strykur said:

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Two things:

1. You don't fire a coach after going 8-4 unless you are a blueblood
2. With this schedule, 8-4 does not move the needle so nothing's changed

So, bowl game swings it

---

CAL isn't firing an 8-5 coach either. CAL isn't firing Justin Wilcox if he "loses out", and everyone knows it. All of this conjecture is masturbation.

---

I have to admit, I never considered the issue from this perspective.

Anarchistbear said:

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Bowl game is irrelevant, an exhibition in which players choose to compete or not.

---

After the farce and fiasco of last year's LA Bowl I refuse to get excited about bowl games and will never attend another. Playoff or bust.

ducktilldeath said:

---

Strykur said:

---

Two things:

1. You don't fire a coach after going 8-4 unless you are a blueblood
2. With this schedule, 8-4 does not move the needle so nothing's changed

So, bowl game swings it

---

CAL isn't firing an 8-5 coach either. CAL isn't firing Justin Wilcox if he "loses out", and everyone knows it. All of this conjecture is masturbation.

---

There certainly is nothing else to do in Eugene except watch the Ducks and masturbate, which apparently is sometimes done at the same time.

MiZery said:

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5-3 in ACC. 8-4 overall

Depending on how other teams in the league play- but best case scenario is a gator bowl victory.

Worst case would be a Sun Bowl

Would either of those bowls get JW another year?

---

The record doesn't matter - the only thing that matters is the buyout. $10.5 million after December 31, 2025. That would be nearly twice what was paid to Tedford and Dykes. That is not the Cal way and would be terrible optics when college finances are a mess. These incessant posts about firing Wilcox are idiotic - Cal is not a serious power football school where that amount would be a non-issue. Wilcox is here next year regardless of what happens the rest of this season.

Save these posts for next season. Until then, enjoy the wins while you can.

ducktilldeath said:

---

Strykur said:

---

Two things:

1. You don't fire a coach after going 8-4 unless you are a blueblood
2. With this schedule, 8-4 does not move the needle so nothing's changed

So, bowl game swings it

---

CAL isn't firing an 8-5 coach either. CAL isn't firing Justin Wilcox if he "loses out", and everyone knows it. All of this conjecture is masturbation.

---

masturbation is a lot more fun

HKBear97! said:

---

MiZery said:

---

5-3 in ACC. 8-4 overall

Depending on how other teams in the league play- but best case scenario is a gator bowl victory.

Worst case would be a Sun Bowl

Would either of those bowls get JW another year?

---

The record doesn't matter - the only thing that matters is the buyout. $10.5 million after December 31, 2025. That would be nearly twice what was paid to Tedford and Dykes. That is not the Cal way and would be terrible optics when college finances are a mess. These incessant posts about firing Wilcox are idiotic - Cal is not a serious power football school where that amount would be a non-issue. Wilcox is here next year regardless of what happens the rest of this season.

Save these posts for next season. Until then, enjoy the wins while you can.

---

The buyout isn't the only thing, but it is important.

Another year or two of portal madness will have to be endured just to see where Professional Minor League Football is heading. Not enough data at this early stage.

HKBear97! said:

---

MiZery said:

---

5-3 in ACC. 8-4 overall

Depending on how other teams in the league play- but best case scenario is a gator bowl victory.

Worst case would be a Sun Bowl

Would either of those bowls get JW another year?

---

The record doesn't matter - the only thing that matters is the buyout. $10.5 million after December 31, 2025. That would be nearly twice what was paid to Tedford and Dykes. That is not the Cal way and would be terrible optics when college finances are a mess. These incessant posts about firing Wilcox are idiotic - Cal is not a serious power football school where that amount would be a non-issue. Wilcox is here next year regardless of what happens the rest of this season.

Save these posts for next season. Until then, enjoy the wins while you can.

---

THIS!!!

1) Cal is not (ever?) going to be paying top dollar for a coach. It is telling that many in the fire wilcox camp are gravitating to To$h based on the theory that as a first time coach (and aluumn who love the Bay) we would get a discount that somehow allows us to afford things. I sorta laugh at how strangers are making Tosh take a pay cut for the good of the order.

2) Near as I can read the tea leaves Cal does NOT have someone on the regents like UCLA has. Probably something for team relevance to work on. The amount of $$ that UCLA seems to be gambling with is absud.

3) It is really important to note that individual campuses rarely own all their mistakes. If UCLA really does spend $80 million for a coach and has a 9 figure exit from the Rosebowl and can't make it up on the come the only thing comparable in UC history is the initial failure of the county hospitals that UCSD, UCI and UCLA took on in the 1970s. Those losses were spread across the system - resulting in MUCH gnashing of teeth and roaring of roars (especially by Berkeley Faculty). Sadly the Bruins AGAIN go there first and I doubt that Cal is going to be allowed to take a runner while UCLA is potentially looking at 100-200 million in losses.

calumnus said:

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MiZery said:

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5-3 in ACC. 8-4 overall

Depending on how other teams in the league play- but best case scenario is a gator bowl victory.

Worst case would be a Sun Bowl

Would either of those bowls get JW another year?

---

We are still in the Pac-12 for bowls this year

Here is how Sagarin has us ranked currently;
1. Oregon 8-1 #3
2. Utah 7-2 #12
3. USC 7-2 #13
4. Washington 6-3 #25
5. ASU 6-3 #37
6. Arizona 6-3 #51
7. UCLA 3-6 #67
8. Cal 6-4 #69
9. WSU 4-5 #74

. . ..

---

Is it lost on anyone that we are still second from the bottom in a virtual PAC 12 rank order by this objective measure? The whole 5-3 and 8-4 record is re contextualizing our situation. Oh we are mid conference, we have a winning record in conference, etc etc. We are the same as we ever were 9 years down the road with a very weak schedule.

upsetof86 said:

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calumnus said:

---

MiZery said:

---

5-3 in ACC. 8-4 overall

Depending on how other teams in the league play- but best case scenario is a gator bowl victory.

Worst case would be a Sun Bowl

Would either of those bowls get JW another year?

---

We are still in the Pac-12 for bowls this year

Here is how Sagarin has us ranked currently;
1. Oregon 8-1 #3
2. Utah 7-2 #12
3. USC 7-2 #13
4. Washington 6-3 #25
5. ASU 6-3 #37
6. Arizona 6-3 #51
7. UCLA 3-6 #67
8. Cal 6-4 #69
9. WSU 4-5 #74

. . ..

---

Is it lost on anyone that we are still second from the bottom in a virtual PAC 12 rank order by this objective measure? The whole 5-3 and 8-4 record is re contextualizing our situation. Oh we are mid conference, we have a winning record in conference, etc etc. We are the same as we ever were 9 years down the road with a very weak schedule.

---

Is it lost on you that this metric accounts for the "very weak" schedule? Also, when did Pac 12 become Pac 9? We should be above UCLA and will end the season as such. They only had a big win over a top ranked PSU team that was playing like dog crap and completely fell apart. Let's win out. JW should be on notice and any sort of extension is completely out of the question.

It's amazing how some posters burn through each football and basketball season with mantras of "Fire Coach …." with little else noted about players, plays, and games. What a miserable way to spend one's life!

Two issues - JW will need an extension to satisfy recruits/transfers. However the extension should be a set of rolling one year extensions that we can tear up if he makes the ACC title game next year. We need to minimize the buyout.

Secondly even the bluebloods undergo transfers out. The key is that the outgoing guys need to be guys we couldn't find PT for and/or graduated. If Uluave or JKS leave then JW is toast.

if Wilcox is still the coach next year then Ron Rivera is just stealing money from the university just like Knowlton was/is.

A game or two shouldn't change anything one way or another. There's 9 years of track record.

Does any of this depend on whether Wilcox has "lost the locker room"? It didn't look like it from that little clip of the players all chanting his name on Saturday. If we don't lose our best players to the portal (JKS) does that strengthen the case that he stays?

A Junior College coach I know says Wilcox will be retained from what he has heard. Too expensive to fire him b they would rather used the money to fund NIL. We will see.

JimSox said:

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Does any of this depend on whether Wilcox has "lost the locker room"? It didn't look like it from that little clip of the players all chanting his name on Saturday. If we don't lose our best players to the portal (JKS) does that strengthen the case that he stays?

---

No one thought the locker room was lost after the Big Game last year. Didn't matter when the portal opened

Why is the number of players lost to the portal a new measuring stick?

Yes, Cal lost 37 players to the portal last year. The year before that, it looks like we lost 23.

37 was outlandish and it was unacceptable how many offensive starters we lost. We need to see how it plays out this year.

Oregon lost 23 players. Georgia lost 21-24 players. Those are some major programs.

Florida State lost "over 30." TCU lost in the low 20s. Those are currently mid major programs.

So, Cal and Wilcox lost an "average" number in 2023. 2024 was clearly a disaster portal wise, although we did get JKS through the portal. Whatever happened with Harsin was a big driver of our portal losses last year, it seems.

I am not suggesting that we can or should lose 30+ players every year, but college football in 2025 should have most programs losing 20-25 players every year, unfortunately.


__PRESENT__PRESENT

__PRESENT__PRESENT

adujan said:

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Why is the number of players lost to the portal a new measuring stick?

Yes, Cal lost 37 players to the portal last year. The year before that, it looks like we lost 23.

37 was outlandish and it was unacceptable how many offensive starters we lost. We need to see how it plays out this year.

Oregon lost 23 players. Georgia lost 21-24 players. Those are some major programs.

Florida State lost "over 30." TCU lost in the low 20s. Those are currently mid major programs.

So, Cal and Wilcox lost an "average" number in 2023. 2024 was clearly a disaster portal wise, although we did get JKS through the portal. Whatever happened with Harsin was a big driver of our portal losses last year, it seems.

I am not suggesting that we can or should lose 30+ players every year, but college football in 2025 should have most programs losing 20-25 players every year, unfortunately.


__PRESENT__PRESENT

__PRESENT__PRESENT

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We were ravaged by Mendoza's departure and the subsequent departure of our WR core. If this didn't happen, we'd likely have 2-3 more wins this season. If we can avoid something like that this offseason, the future is looking alright.

oski003 said:

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We were ravaged by Mendoza's departure and the subsequent departure of our WR core. If this didn't happen, we'd likely have 2-3 more wins this season. If we can avoid something like that this offseason, the future is looking alright.

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The future always looks "alright" for Cal fans. In fact the future is always looks like we're going to be a top tier team. It's the "present" that always sucks.

Golden One said:

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oski003 said:

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We were ravaged by Mendoza's departure and the subsequent departure of our WR core. If this didn't happen, we'd likely have 2-3 more wins this season. If we can avoid something like that this offseason, the future is looking alright.

---

The future always looks "alright" for Cal fans. In fact the future is always looks like we're going to be a top tier team. It's the "present" that always sucks.

---

I don't think we can win the ACC with Wilcox as our head coach (or at least the odds are very low). We would need to have an amazing hire to do so. I am not sure Cal can pay a $10 million buyout and get an amazing hire in the cycle, especially after firing a coach with 8+ wins.

oski003 said:

---

adujan said:

---

Why is the number of players lost to the portal a new measuring stick?

Yes, Cal lost 37 players to the portal last year. The year before that, it looks like we lost 23.

37 was outlandish and it was unacceptable how many offensive starters we lost. We need to see how it plays out this year.

Oregon lost 23 players. Georgia lost 21-24 players. Those are some major programs.

Florida State lost "over 30." TCU lost in the low 20s. Those are currently mid major programs.

So, Cal and Wilcox lost an "average" number in 2023. 2024 was clearly a disaster portal wise, although we did get JKS through the portal. Whatever happened with Harsin was a big driver of our portal losses last year, it seems.

I am not suggesting that we can or should lose 30+ players every year, but college football in 2025 should have most programs losing 20-25 players every year, unfortunately.


__PRESENT__PRESENT

__PRESENT__PRESENT

---

We were ravaged by Mendoza's departure and the subsequent departure of our WR core. If this didn't happen, we'd likely have 2-3 more wins this season. If we can avoid something like that this offseason, the future is looking alright.

---

Yeah. The question of which players depart rather than how many.

To complicate matters, what if Wilcox stays for next year but Harsin and/or Rolo leave? Wilcox doesn't exactly have a great record for hiring Offensive Coordinators.

My two cents:

1) lose Big Game JW is gone. But Cal will be the favorite going in. That is 7 wins.
2) lose to SMU. I still think JW is gone. Probably a battle of 7-4 teams with SMU a mild favorite on the road. Wilcox needs to win this game, and if he does win:

Bowl game: Cal is being talked about for the Sun Bowl, which is close to year end. With the Portal opening Jan 2 and ending Jan 16, they are not going to fire a head coach and walk into the Portal without a head coach or a brand new coach who has no time to pick staff, meet players, prep and then go into the Portal season. The portal period related to when Cal players could be poached is 15 days and begins five days after a new coach is hired or announced, which could mean Cal is extending the Portal period for Cal players. Just not going to happen. If JW survives regular season 2025, he is our coach for 2026. In fact, he probably gets a raise for an 8 or 9 win team. Seems to me RR publicly set out his expectations at the beginning of the season for 8 wins, and as long as the donors are on board, Wilcox needs to win 8 games during the season or he will be let go. Again, my two cents.