why trust in Ron?

12,464 Views | 100 Replies | Last: 3 mo ago by smh
oski003
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DoubtfulBear said:

HKBear97! said:

Fred Bear said:

The more Ron talks, the more I want to take his keys from him and give them to someone who cares about winning



Not surprising. Cal is not a normal football school so an overall 48-54 record and 26-46 conference record isn't really that big a deal. Clean program, bowl eligible every once in awhile, winning record against Stanford, kids graduating - what is there to complain about? You people just don't understand the football world like Ron and the administration do. I doubt they even think there's an issue and probably think the only people complaining simply don't get it. But hey, tell me again that with Lyons and Rivera it means this time is different! LOL

Why would anyone expect the same Ron Rivera who was notorious for handing the reigns of power to his coordinators both at Carolina and Washington do anything but vehemently support his direct report?

It's laughable that people think he will fire Wilcox and take over as head coach. When he trusted Bieniemy to the end to run the offensive of the horrid Redskins


We are 6-4 with RR as GM. Lets get another win at stanfurd. Seems to be a lot of complaining after we win.
calumnus
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sycasey said:

Fred Bear said:

The more Ron talks, the more I want to take his keys from him and give them to someone who cares about winning



I'm not sure why anyone would expect him to answer that one way or the other right now.

The last two sentences are very appropriate. The first is very troubling.
TedfordTheGreat
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HKBear97! said:

Fred Bear said:

The more Ron talks, the more I want to take his keys from him and give them to someone who cares about winning



Not surprising. Cal is not a normal football school so an overall 48-54 record and 26-46 conference record isn't really that big a deal. Clean program, bowl eligible every once in awhile, winning record against Stanford, kids graduating - what is there to complain about? You people just don't understand the football world like Ron and the administration do. I doubt they even think there's an issue and probably think the only people complaining simply don't get it. But hey, tell me again that with Lyons and Rivera it means this time is different! LOL

hey dont look now! aspirationally we are going for 8 wins and 4 losses, and maybe if we get god on our side we can even get 9! we gotta aim "high" over here!

/s
oski003
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TedfordTheGreat said:

HKBear97! said:

Fred Bear said:

The more Ron talks, the more I want to take his keys from him and give them to someone who cares about winning



Not surprising. Cal is not a normal football school so an overall 48-54 record and 26-46 conference record isn't really that big a deal. Clean program, bowl eligible every once in awhile, winning record against Stanford, kids graduating - what is there to complain about? You people just don't understand the football world like Ron and the administration do. I doubt they even think there's an issue and probably think the only people complaining simply don't get it. But hey, tell me again that with Lyons and Rivera it means this time is different! LOL

hey dont look now! aspirationally we are going for 8 wins and 4 losses, and maybe if we get god on our side we can even get 9! we gotta aim "high" over here!

/s


9-4 is a good result, yes.
DaveBear
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Fred Bear said:
"The more Ron talks, the more I want to take his keys from him and give them to someone who cares about winning"

Someone who cares about winning? If not Ron, who would that be?
Golden One
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oski003 said:

TedfordTheGreat said:

HKBear97! said:

Fred Bear said:

The more Ron talks, the more I want to take his keys from him and give them to someone who cares about winning



Not surprising. Cal is not a normal football school so an overall 48-54 record and 26-46 conference record isn't really that big a deal. Clean program, bowl eligible every once in awhile, winning record against Stanford, kids graduating - what is there to complain about? You people just don't understand the football world like Ron and the administration do. I doubt they even think there's an issue and probably think the only people complaining simply don't get it. But hey, tell me again that with Lyons and Rivera it means this time is different! LOL

hey dont look now! aspirationally we are going for 8 wins and 4 losses, and maybe if we get god on our side we can even get 9! we gotta aim "high" over here!

/s


9-4 is a good result, yes.


Not when you realize we lost 34 -0 to SDSU.
oski003
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DaveBear said:

Fred Bear said:
"The more Ron talks, the more I want to take his keys from him and give them to someone who cares about winning"

Someone who cares about winning? If not Ron, who would that be?


Their answer seems to be anybody that doesn't want Wilcox fired right now.
oski003
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Golden One said:

oski003 said:

TedfordTheGreat said:

HKBear97! said:

Fred Bear said:

The more Ron talks, the more I want to take his keys from him and give them to someone who cares about winning



Not surprising. Cal is not a normal football school so an overall 48-54 record and 26-46 conference record isn't really that big a deal. Clean program, bowl eligible every once in awhile, winning record against Stanford, kids graduating - what is there to complain about? You people just don't understand the football world like Ron and the administration do. I doubt they even think there's an issue and probably think the only people complaining simply don't get it. But hey, tell me again that with Lyons and Rivera it means this time is different! LOL

hey dont look now! aspirationally we are going for 8 wins and 4 losses, and maybe if we get god on our side we can even get 9! we gotta aim "high" over here!

/s


9-4 is a good result, yes.


Not when you realize we lost 34 -0 to SDSU.


Aaaaaahnhhh, the other 9 wins no help fix booboo?
calumnus
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Golden One said:

oski003 said:

TedfordTheGreat said:

HKBear97! said:

Fred Bear said:

The more Ron talks, the more I want to take his keys from him and give them to someone who cares about winning



Not surprising. Cal is not a normal football school so an overall 48-54 record and 26-46 conference record isn't really that big a deal. Clean program, bowl eligible every once in awhile, winning record against Stanford, kids graduating - what is there to complain about? You people just don't understand the football world like Ron and the administration do. I doubt they even think there's an issue and probably think the only people complaining simply don't get it. But hey, tell me again that with Lyons and Rivera it means this time is different! LOL

hey dont look now! aspirationally we are going for 8 wins and 4 losses, and maybe if we get god on our side we can even get 9! we gotta aim "high" over here!

/s


9-4 is a good result, yes.


Not when you realize we lost 34 -0 to SDSU.


And a loss to a Virginia Tech team that fired its coach and has 7 losses with only one other FBS win.

Throw in Duke at CMS.

9 wins might make one think about what an opportunity we had and squandered by not beating the teams we should easily beat.
BrightBear
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Cal blew a 21-7 lead against Duke at home and we lost 45k fans !

Cal let Virginia Tech run 357 yards up our mouth !

Cal let SDSU, a mountain west team whoop us 34-0 !

Cal let an injured quarterback who can barely raise his left shoulder travel across the country and beat us !

This team is not good besides a handful of players and coaches. Get rid of Wilsux cancer !
BrightBear
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DaveBear vs FredBear

AKA

DelusionalBear vs LogicalBear

going4roses
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We shall soon see … I'm still on the fence hoping for the best
How (are) you gonna win when you ain’t right within…
6956bear
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BearlyCareAnymore said:

Shocky1 said:

fred, the more u talk, the more i want u to go the gym & do some sit ups for ur overhanging beer belly

the bears are targeting a 7th win this saturday, the fact that u don't understand the financial picture in berkeley and/or the available coaching options along with the true costs of a total rebuild (ucla will lose 19 games between 2025 & 2026) makes that a very disrespectful question to someone who is donating more than his general manager salary to cal athletics

I appreciate all the support Ron Rivera has given over the years and all that he still gives.

I don't have a huge issue with his answer although I think it could have been more tactful. He could have just said we will deal with that after the season. Right now we are trying to win the Big Game. But he isn't going to answer that question now and I'm not going to make a huge deal out of the phrasing of his answer.

But it is not a disrespectful question. He is our general manager and how much he donates has nothing to do with it. A GM has to expect to field questions about the future of his football coach at any moment in the best of circumstances. If the program is going well it will be about keeping him. If it is going poorly it will be about whether you want to keep him. That is the job. It's a reasonable question of any GM at any time.

It is the job. He was specifically put in charge of football operations. And if we are being honest to evaluate the HC and staff and make decisons around their employment. Ron does a lot of things that go unnoticed but matter. But the big thing that literally anybody that follows Cal football understands is the football has not met the hopes. I would say expectations but there are apparently few that have them.

He will be judged in the end by the performance of the team primarily. The performance has been poor to mediocre. Given the performance and the fast approaching end of the season it is very reasonable to ask the GM about the job security of the HC. Everyone knew he would not provide an answer. But the question is a valid one. What decisions Ron makes around the HC now and going forward are going to be the biggest factors most fans will consider when evaluating his performance. If Wilcox is the HC on Monday Dec 1st IMO Ron will have failed his first big test.

The prior Cal administrations mismanaged and did not support football. Not anywhere close to what is required if you want to actually win games and have fans pay to come watch. Now they are paying the price. Cal IMO has a decision to make. Take football seriously. Or stop asking for money to support an enterprise they have no intention of supporting to the necessary level.

It is unfortunate that the finances are not sufficient. Then shut it down. Stop with telling the fans to support a product that the University fails to support.

JMO but Wilcox has been a failure as a HC. Good guy. The players seem to like him. He has not brought scandal. He represents the school fine and many like him personally. That is all good stuff. But to stay for 9 years you also need to perform other parts of the job well. He has not met that part. Not even close. Cal is not paying Wilcox around $5m annually because he is a nice guy. Winning also matters. So asking Rivera about Wilcox's job security is a valid question even though nobody expected an answer.

We'll know the answer soon enough though. The regular season ends in 9 days. Looking forward to Ron's end of season review of the program.


DaveBear
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Completely agree 6956. Whichever way it goes, major initiatives and changes need to be made if the Bears are to committ to the next level.

Though a completely different era, this Wilcox period, for me, has been remoniscent to the Ray Willsey years when I was an undergrad at Cal. Great guy, Honest and loyal. Defensive minded ("the Bear Minimum") but never won more than 7 games and most years 5 or 6. Mediocrity at its best.

This is a much different time, a time to show we are serious. Let's go!! GO BEARS
Bobodeluxe
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So, Justin takes Las Vegas to the stupor bowl four years in a row?!/! Bearister will be pumped.
DoubtfulBear
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If Wilcox isn't gone by Monday morning then Rivera should submit his resignation as well
BearChemist
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BearlyCareAnymore said:

oski003 said:

RedlessWardrobe said:

oski003 said:

calumnus said:

oski003 said:

calumnus said:

oski003 said:

calumnus said:

Big C said:

My perhaps unsubstantiated opinion is that we expect teams to have an advantage coming off a bye week, but then they don't, as they appear to play without intensity or "sharpness".

There must be data on this. I'd love to see some.

It really depends. It definitely helps with healing minor injuries, having guys play that might not have otherwise. It should also help the coaches scout and devise a game plan for the next game, given the extra time, but we rarely see our coaches or opponents do that on an obvious way. It might take away the edge from teams on a winning streak. It might cause teams that lost the last game to brood a bit longer. On the other hand, it gives a team time to enjoy an emotional win and avoid a letdown the next week.

The statistical anomaly 003 points out does seem more than random, but the good news it is not ACC teams traveling west being given a bye before travel. Only UNC had a previous week bye and that was before a Friday night game in Berkeley. Because if that were the case, we should expect to see more than 2 teams having byes before playing us be an annual occurrence. That does not appear to be the case.


Yes, two things are correct:

1) It is almost always advantageous to have a Bye week before playing a team when the other team doesn't have a bye; and

2) Cal is facing 5 teams with Bye weeks before facing us this season, a crazy number, while we have two bye weeks before playing our opponents, which is standard for each team.


Yes, it is definitely a number that seems greater than chance. My hypothesis was that maybe it was because the ACC wanted to give a break to the East Coast teams traveling to California to ease that burden for them (and was part of the price of admission for us). However, of those teams, only UNC had a bye before playing us and that may have been because it was for a Friday night game. So the good news is it is not systemic bias. It appears to be a fluke and most likely will not be seen again.



Interesting use of unnecessary complex language and a red herring.

You brought up an interesting statistical anomaly: that we have 5 games against teams that had byes the previous week, versus the two we might expect. We both agreed that is a disadvantage for Cal, all things being equal. We might disagree on the magnitude, but we agree it is a disadvantage.

For me it raised a question: was this by design, is it the ACC that is giving ACC East Coast teams a bye before flying to the West Coast? Which would actually make sense since we barely got voted in due to the concern existing members had with long distance travel. If that were the case we could expect it to continue in subsequent years. That should be something that would concern you since you see it as big disadvantage. The good news is that is not the cause of 4 of the 5. It appears it really was chance, unless you think the B1G and MWC schedulers are conspiring against Cal. It isn't a red herring because I wasn't arguing with you. It is a continued discussion of an interesting point that you brought to my attention that peaked my interest as an economist and statistician.


I am glad you agree that

1) Facing 5 opponents with bye weeks is a statistical anomaly; and

2) it disadvantages Cal.

Hopefully, today the House of Representatives will vote "yes" on releasing the "ACC Bye Files."


Only BI free forum negabears can turn an obvious point defending our record into an X Files conspiracy.

Except, your obvious point is bs. You know how 99% of the people on the internet just argue without actually checking whether the other side's factual statements are true, and then there is the 1 really annoying guy who actually checks? I'm that guy.

Cite one source indicating that there is a statistically significant advantage coming off of a bye week? One. You can't. People who have done that analysis have, depending on the data set and time frame all found a number hovering within 1-2 percentage points of 50% plus or minus. In other words, statistically there is no advantage and if there is possibly any advantage it is so small that it is not worth considering. So far this year, teams are 129 and 127 coming off a bye. Sagarin doesn't track it because it doesn't have a statistical impact. More importantly, unlike home field advantage (64% win percentage) where odds makers/bettors generally give 3 points, they give no advantage to a team coming off a bye. And when betting is involved, they think of everything. There is simply no statistically significant advantage to playing after a bye no matter how truthy it sounds that there would be one.

As for Cal this year, they have played 4 teams coming off of a bye:

SDSU - Nothing to do with the ACC. We got clobbered. There is no 34 point bye advantage
UNC - We both had byes. So cancels out. We won.
BC - We won.
Duke - We got clobbered. There is no 24 point bye advantage.

We are 1-2 against teams coming off a bye when we weren't coming off a bye. 1-1 in conference. There is no way you can argue that either of our losses were the result of byes. Shockingly we beat a crappy team after their bye, and lost big to 2 teams that are better than we are.

So there is no argument that there is a statistically significant advantage to playing after a bye generally and there is no argument that Cal has had a disadvantage that in any way impacted its record.

As for it being predictable that people will argue we have an easy schedule.

1. We do. Our Sagarin strength of schedule is 63 out of 68 power teams (p4+ND).
2. Calumnus has been beating that drum, and me to a lesser extent since the schedules came out. It was not to slam Wilcox. We both made the same argument that coming into a new conference we had a fresh start and that the schedules looked very easy year one and exceptionally easy year two and that Cal really had an opportunity to change its narrative and it really needed to take advantage of that opportunity. When we didn't in year one, we both said, okay well, we have one more year. We better take advantage. We proved to be correct on the schedules. They were as easy as we anticipated.

As for next year, nonconference we scheduled a team (BYU) who should clobber us (why the hell did we schedule that). We have UCLA who sucks but I would presume will be a middling to below average p4 opponent. UNLV who we should beat, but is good enough to pose a challenge. Wagner who is Wagner. In conference we have 3 games that we should expect to lose (Clemson, SMU and Virginia). We have 5 crappy opponents, but it's a crappy league, so that is par for the course. Ceiling looks like 8 wins. Floor looks like 6 wins unless the doors fall off. I'd say a middling schedule but not the opportunity to pull off 9-10 wins like we had the last two years. So, no. Not as easy as the last two years. It's not that guys like calumnus and I make shyte up about the schedule. It's that you don't bother to look at it.

The bottom line is, if you want to you can find something to argue against any point no matter how stupid and inconsequential that thing is. Like you can argue that a coach who hasn't had a winning record in conference in 8 years is excused by one year having a nonexistent disadvantage in bye weeks. Or you can argue that a QB completing 90% of his passes isn't actually impressive and that he has apparently fooled the entire football world into thinking he is good instead of wondering why your coaching staff couldn't take advantage of that talent.

What is predictable is people who make up ridiculous excuses like this will then say "no, I'm not arguing for the completely untenable position that the coach has done well. I'm just sayin' he has an excuse for losing" when if you weren't arguing for the coach, you wouldn't be just sayin' a bunch of excuses for his failures.


Am I the only one still waiting to see oski003's reply here?
oski003
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Coaches with a bye to prepare for Wilcox whoop him? My point still stands and, as I said yesterday, we need to move on from him. My arguments here to potentially keep him always assumed he beat stanfurd, won 8+ games, and had player retention/buy-in going into the off-season. We clearly won't be meeting those requirements.
smh
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BearChemist said:

BearlyCareAnymore said:

Am I the only one still waiting to see oski003's reply here?



[life is short, no need to wait, eat dessert first]
BrightBear
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You know it's bad when oski003 is saying fire wilcox !

Just fire him Ron. Enough of your games !
BearlyCareAnymore
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oski003 said:

Coaches with a bye to prepare for Wilcox whoop him? My point still stands and, as I said yesterday, we need to move on from him. My arguments here to potentially keep him always assumed he beat stanfurd, won 8+ games, and had player retention/buy-in going into the off-season. We clearly won't be meeting those requirements.


Your point doesn't stand. There is no statistically significant advantage after a bye week. Your whole point was based on an incorrect assumption. I'm pretty sure that is why chemist was looking for a response.
Bobodeluxe
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Fred Bear said:

Fred Bear said:

The more Ron talks, the more I want to take his keys from him and give them to someone who cares about winning



So, if we are to take Rivera at his word (and for the sake of argument, I will), the board narrative that Cal needed an 8 or 9 win season to keep his job was, per usual, BS.

https://bearinsider.com/s/4804/cal-gm-ron-rivera-coaching-search-presser-transcript/2

Quote:

Q: If you guys have won on Saturday, would Justin be the coach going forward next year?

Rivera: I'd say that's exactly we're looking at, because we're looking for the opportunity to have a winning record, which that would have ensured

So despite all the talk about setting new standards and expectations, it was the same BS as it has always been at Cal. Win 7 games, win Big Game, get into a bowl game to create the illusion of a successful season, and we'd have been stuck with this career loser sub-.500 coach for another full season at minimum because another year just like the 8 previous years wouldn't have been enough of a reason to make a change. How very Cal.

Now who knows? Maybe he's not being entirely truthful here and he's shading the truth to all of you alumni who have been satisfied with this illusion of success for years and he was always planning to make a change regardless of the outcome of Big Game. But it's my opinion that we were a Big Game victory away from having zero hope for next season and it further erodes my confidence that Ron "having the keys" is all that materially different from any of the other people who have been in charge of charting the course of Cal athletics that all ultimately reach the conclusion that you only have to win a little more than you lose to make Cal fans happy.

One thing that has me somewhat encouraged about what is going to happen next is that the same article also tells us that we're not wasting money on a search firm and that there's going to be an as yet-undefined committee of people involved in evaluating the candidates. That part I think is probably a good thing overall. Committees aren't perfect in hiring situations and I've certainly seen committees in my time that have been snowed over by someone who knew the right line of BS to give a committee to win them over to get an administrative job, only to reveal their true nature once they were in charge. But given the option of only having Ron make the choice or a group that includes other people with athletic backgrounds, I think the chances go down that we end up with the football equivalent of Mark Fox.

You NEVER accepted Square Jaw as your savior.
RedlessWardrobe
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Hey FredBear. Honestly, I think you're overthinking on RR a little too much. It will be okay, really.
82gradDLSdad
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I have no problem with Ron wanting someone who 'gets' Cal and wants to be here because it's a special place. Whatever that means. And I don't mean that in a bad way. What I object to is a winning record and some bowl. I think the minimum is a winning conference record that can build toward winning the conference. The current ACC is not a football power conference. A winning record overall and a losing conference record sucks and we have 9 years of experience to back that up. We won't recruit fans or players with that as a goal. Again, we have hard data on this.
sycasey
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Rivera's public statements can be confusing/contradictory, but if I'm focusing on actions . . . well, Wilcox got fired as soon as 8 wins (regular season) was officially off the table. So in action he has stuck to that as the standard.
oski003
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BearlyCareAnymore said:

oski003 said:

Coaches with a bye to prepare for Wilcox whoop him? My point still stands and, as I said yesterday, we need to move on from him. My arguments here to potentially keep him always assumed he beat stanfurd, won 8+ games, and had player retention/buy-in going into the off-season. We clearly won't be meeting those requirements.


Your point doesn't stand. There is no statistically significant advantage after a bye week. Your whole point was based on an incorrect assumption. I'm pretty sure that is why chemist was looking for a response.


Teams having byes in the NFL over the last five seasons have a win percentage of 51%. The data may be skewed because most often both teams have byes, which results in a loss for a team with a bye, but it shows a slight advantage. Obviously, Wilcox's teams performed extremely poorly when other teams had an extra week to scheme against him. Perhaps this is unique to him and now he is gone.

Found something with more detail:

Since the start of the 2015 NFL season through Week 7 of the 2025 season, teams coming off a bye week have a combined record of 176-149-1, a winning percentage of approximately 54.1%. Many of the teams not on bye had a Thursday game and/or the second game was played on Monday night for fairness. When the team coming off the bye plays at home against a non-bye opponent, the advantage is more significant, with one analysis showing a winning percentage around 78%. Home field advantage by itself is a 58% advantage.
going4roses
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I was never sold on Ron having the keys … involved yes by all means but running the show no. I'm hoping for the best
How (are) you gonna win when you ain’t right within…
Strykur
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going4roses said:

I was never sold on Ron having the keys … involved yes by all means but running the show no. I'm hoping for the best

Nobody really was until 5 days ago, let's see if he can finish the deal
calumnus
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going4roses said:

I was never sold on Ron having the keys … involved yes by all means but running the show no. I'm hoping for the best

I thought Ron was a logical potential choice to replace Wilcox the last two seasons, assuming he would work for something like what he is working for. I didn't want to waste our first two years with easy schedules I. The ACC on Wilcox and saw no other option, other than an up and comer, who Knowlton would never be able to identify.

I did not think he was the best choice for GM, but now that he has fired Wilcox, i do see a lot of value in him being the one that hires a young coach and then being the one that mentors him, handles the football organization to a large extent, and solicits donations from the alums. I think it lets us take a chance on an inexperienced but energetic and charismatic guy like Tosh or Desean whereas you might normally want a more proven program builder like Eck.

DoubtfulBear
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oski003 said:

BearChemist said:

Over the years, one can always count on oski003 sticking his neck out to defend the loser coach and constantly moving the goalposts he himself set.


Can you elaborate on me moving the goalposts? Personally, I am okay with replacing Wilcox if he doesn't win 9, and I would be 100% on board with replacing him if he doesn't win 7 or wins 7 but loses to stanfurd.

Having one team coming off a bye week to face a team with less than 8 days rest is an unfair advantage to the team coming off a bye week. Period.

Hey Oski003, the last two days have been further proof that your supposed bye week advantage is false and nothing more than the rest of the unsubstantiated fake news that you love to pedal as facts on this board.
smh
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DoubtfulBear said:

> Hey Oski003, the last two days have been further proof that your supposed bye week advantage is false and nothing more than the rest of the unsubstantiated fake news that you love to pedal as facts on this board.

fwiw blocking annoying handles works grreat (mine included) and doesn't cost nothin
 
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