Big C said:

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Golden One said:

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K1min8r said:

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Well, guys, all this head-coaching search stuff appears to be just a formality before Tosh is announced.

I think it's a mistake.


The issue I'm not seeing discussed is how bad of a match Tosh is for Cal's situation.

Head Coaching Gap.

Tosh has never been a head coach at any level. The skills that make someone an elite recruiter and position coach don't automatically translate to managing an entire program. What makes anyone think an elite recruiter in the pre-NIL era, who used shady tactics and whose credit for great defenses is a bit shaky, makes a great head coach?

Ethical Issues.

I personally want a head coach who develops our young men into men of character. Wilcox didn't have the wins, but he did seem to have integrity and character.

There have been numerous issues with Tosh's past, including paying for tutoring, etc., which caused Washington to pay him $300K in a separation settlement to leave.

JKS wants a head coach with character and integrity. As do I.

Maybe he has changed. But I haven't seen anything to suggest he has.

Resource Mismatch Problem

This. Is. The. Biggest. Issue.

Cal receives only a partial share of ACC revenueroughly $25 million annually for the next nine years before receiving full shares. For context, schools like Clemson, Florida State, and Miami receive full shares plus massive NIL support from deep donor bases. Top SEC programs like Texas and LSU are spending $40+ million on athlete compensation. Some programs are pushing past $50 million.

Cal's matching program tops out at $6 million from campus resources for football, plus whatever donors contribute. Even at maximum capacity, Cal's football roster spending would likely fall well short of what Clemson, Miami, or even schools like SMU can offer.

Tosh's entire career has been spent in programs with deep resources:

• Alabama: One of the richest programs in CFB
• Oregon: Backed by Phil Knight's Nike wealth

Tosh has never had to build a winner in a resource-constrained environment. He has never had to identify overlooked talent, develop walk-ons into contributors, or scheme around roster limitations. His recruiting success has always been about convincing elite prospects to choose his program over other elite programsnot about finding diamonds in the rough.

What Cal Actually Needs

If we want to compete for 8+ wins in the ACC consistently, we need a coach whose profile looks very different from Tosh:

A Strong In-Game Coach, Not Just a Recruiter

In a league where most rivals will outspend us, the coaching staff needs to consistently out-scheme and out-prepare opponents. This requires a head coach who can maximize the talent on the rosternot one whose primary asset is getting talent to campus in the first place.

Experience Identifying Non-Obvious Talent

We won't win bidding wars for 5-stars. Maybe we get 1 or 2. But more generally, we need a coach with a track record of finding undervalued recruitsplayers other programs overlooked who develop into difference-makers. Coaches who've built winners at mid-major programs or in the Group of 5 often have this skill. Tosh has never demonstrated it.

A System That Elevates Roster Talent

The most successful resource-constrained programs run schemes designed to maximize their roster's strengths while hiding weaknesses. Think of what Jason Eck is doing at New Mexico. These coaches don't need five-stars to win; they need players who fit their system and coaching that develops them.

Ownership of Offensive Identity

We have a special quarterback in JKS. Tosh is a defensive coach who would need to hire an offensive coordinator and hand over that side of the ball entirely. Is he the right person to build an offense around JKS's development?

Better Alternatives Given the Above

Jason Eck, Tim Plough, Ryan Grubb, Desean Jackson (High Risk, High Reward)

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I agree. I also think Tosh is not the right guy for our next head coach. I want an offensive guy who possesses the attributes you mention.

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According to Steve Young -- and I paraphrase -- a guy from the defensive side can still succeed as HC, as long as he understands that the game has evolved to where no team can win without a good offense and, in particular, the QB needs to be put in a position to succeed. This may involve hiring a brilliant offensive coordinator and resisting the temptation to meddle. In short, the HC needs to know what he doesn't know and fill that gap with the right hires.

This is my biggest reservation about Tosh, but he may well have it covered. Perhaps we shall see.

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I agree with much of what you say. I'd much rather have an offensive guy. Just seems like the odds are much better that he will succeed. Just look at the Wilcox years and how year after year we were promised a great OC. Well, if we ever do get a great OC, he'll just bolt after a year or so and we'll be left with a defensive guy as HC who doesn't know how to keep the offense rolling. Better chances hiring an offensive minded
young coach who knows a little defense than finding a defensive guy who can run our offense. And yes, I know about
Sonny Dykes. But he is the exception. Great offensive minds generally know both sides of the ball. But the reverse is rare.
Plus, you throw in the JKS factor and I just don't want another defensive coach to come along and waste his talent.

K1min8r said:

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Well, guys, all this head-coaching search stuff appears to be just a formality before Tosh is announced.

I think it's a mistake.

The issue I'm not seeing discussed is how bad of a match Tosh is for Cal's situation.

Head Coaching Gap.

Tosh has never been a head coach at any level. The skills that make someone an elite recruiter and position coach don't automatically translate to managing an entire program. What makes anyone think an elite recruiter in the pre-NIL era, who used shady tactics and whose credit for great defenses is a bit shaky, makes a great head coach?

Ethical Issues.

I personally want a head coach who develops our young men into men of character. Wilcox didn't have the wins, but he did seem to have integrity and character.

There have been numerous issues with Tosh's past, including paying for tutoring, etc., which caused Washington to pay him $300K in a separation settlement to leave.

JKS wants a head coach with character and integrity. As do I.

Maybe he has changed. But I haven't seen anything to suggest he has.

Resource Mismatch Problem

This. Is. The. Biggest. Issue.

Cal receives only a partial share of ACC revenueroughly $25 million annually for the next nine years before receiving full shares. For context, schools like Clemson, Florida State, and Miami receive full shares plus massive NIL support from deep donor bases. Top SEC programs like Texas and LSU are spending $40+ million on athlete compensation. Some programs are pushing past $50 million.

Cal's matching program tops out at $6 million from campus resources for football, plus whatever donors contribute. Even at maximum capacity, Cal's football roster spending would likely fall well short of what Clemson, Miami, or even schools like SMU can offer.

Tosh's entire career has been spent in programs with deep resources:

• Alabama: One of the richest programs in CFB
• Oregon: Backed by Phil Knight's Nike wealth

Tosh has never had to build a winner in a resource-constrained environment. He has never had to identify overlooked talent, develop walk-ons into contributors, or scheme around roster limitations. His recruiting success has always been about convincing elite prospects to choose his program over other elite programsnot about finding diamonds in the rough.

What Cal Actually Needs

If we want to compete for 8+ wins in the ACC consistently, we need a coach whose profile looks very different from Tosh:

A Strong In-Game Coach, Not Just a Recruiter

In a league where most rivals will outspend us, the coaching staff needs to consistently out-scheme and out-prepare opponents. This requires a head coach who can maximize the talent on the rosternot one whose primary asset is getting talent to campus in the first place.

Experience Identifying Non-Obvious Talent

We won't win bidding wars for 5-stars. Maybe we get 1 or 2. But more generally, we need a coach with a track record of finding undervalued recruitsplayers other programs overlooked who develop into difference-makers. Coaches who've built winners at mid-major programs or in the Group of 5 often have this skill. Tosh has never demonstrated it.

A System That Elevates Roster Talent

The most successful resource-constrained programs run schemes designed to maximize their roster's strengths while hiding weaknesses. Think of what Jason Eck is doing at New Mexico. These coaches don't need five-stars to win; they need players who fit their system and coaching that develops them.

Ownership of Offensive Identity

We have a special quarterback in JKS. Tosh is a defensive coach who would need to hire an offensive coordinator and hand over that side of the ball entirely. Is he the right person to build an offense around JKS's development?

Better Alternatives Given the Above

Jason Eck, Tim Plough, Ryan Grubb, Desean Jackson (High Risk, High Reward)

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Excellent post, summarizing a lot of my apprehensions about Lupoi.

JeffMcd said:

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Tosh is a winner. He has fire. He will need to step up to the next level as a HC, but RR will be there to help. He loves Cal. He's ambitious. If RR thinks he's the guy, I'm all in. I'm backing RR's judgement on the character arguments (although personally I don't see a big concern there based off what I've read and heard.) Just win baby!

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That part, about loving Cal, has been demonstrably proven false by his having gone to UW and stabbing his alma mater and his mentor in the back.

Look, you could say that Tosh is going to stock our future DL with a dozen Cameron Jordans and Andre Carters and we will win because of that, and that would be a somewhat believable pitch, but don't make up alternative realities about who the guy is and what he did to his alma mater.

Cal88 said:

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JeffMcd said:

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Tosh is a winner. He has fire. He will need to step up to the next level as a HC, but RR will be there to help. He loves Cal. He's ambitious. If RR thinks he's the guy, I'm all in. I'm backing RR's judgement on the character arguments (although personally I don't see a big concern there based off what I've read and heard.) Just win baby!

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That part, about loving Cal, has been demonstrably proven false by his having gone to UW and stabbing his alma mater and his mentor in the back.

Look, you could say that Tosh is going to stock our future DL with a dozen Cameron Jordans and Andre Carters and we will win because of that, and that would be a somewhat believable pitch, but don't make up alternative realities about who the guy is and what he did to his alma mater.

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He was mad at Tedford and at an administration that was determined to not pay him what he was worth relative to his peers on staff and throughout the industry. That's different than not loving Cal, his alma mater. Tedford and that administration are gone, there's a new administration in place that is very committed to supporting football and rewarding winners.

Question...why not brent brennan? I hadnt realized how he is a top choice for ucla, has probably as extensive ties to californa recruiting as tosh and won in 2 places (zona and sjsu). Why is the $$ not there for him but is for a first time hc?

socaltownie said:

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Question...why not brent brennan? I hadnt realized how he is a top choice for ucla, has probably as extensive ties to californa recruiting as tosh and won in 2 places (zona and sjsu). Why is the $$ not there for him but is for a first time hc?

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IMO Brent Brennan should definitely be on our list, as a Jason Eck type but with west coast ties. Two considerations though:

1) his Arizona contract means whoever hires him owes Arizona an extra $7.5M. Not sure we can stomach that on top of everything else

2) Brennan has spent most of his career at G5 schools. No guarantee he can juice recruiting the way we need right now. That's a given with Tosh.

Bearbassics said:

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Cal88 said:

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JeffMcd said:

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Tosh is a winner. He has fire. He will need to step up to the next level as a HC, but RR will be there to help. He loves Cal. He's ambitious. If RR thinks he's the guy, I'm all in. I'm backing RR's judgement on the character arguments (although personally I don't see a big concern there based off what I've read and heard.) Just win baby!

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That part, about loving Cal, has been demonstrably proven false by his having gone to UW and stabbing his alma mater and his mentor in the back.

Look, you could say that Tosh is going to stock our future DL with a dozen Cameron Jordans and Andre Carters and we will win because of that, and that would be a somewhat believable pitch, but don't make up alternative realities about who the guy is and what he did to his alma mater.

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He was mad at Tedford and at an administration that was determined to not pay him what he was worth relative to his peers on staff and throughout the industry. That's different than not loving Cal, his alma mater. Tedford and that administration are gone, there's a new administration in place that is very committed to supporting football and rewarding winners.

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That kind of makes it worse, he revealed himself to be an ungrateful character, ambitious young salesman who stabs his mentor for a bigger boat.

To my knowledge, he never did a serious public attempt at expressing regret for that episode to the Cal community in the many years since he has left.

I am willing to put this aside, if I were convinced that Tosh would be a winner at Cal.

Quote:

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Tosh is a winner. He has fire.

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"Winning" for Tosh in his nearly two decades as a football coach has been about "ABC", closing deals with 18 year old recruits, and yes he is at the top of his profession there, a proven winner in that field.

He has been so good at that that he was promoted to the DC position at top programs as a reward for his salesmanship skills. At a program like Alabama however, those skills were not enough to compensate for his overall performance as a DC. At Oregon, he did find the right balance, flanked in his DC job with two top flight defensive experts, his head coach and his co-DC.

"Having fire" and hating losing is a necessary quality for a HC, but one that is far from sufficient. Does he have the main skill set required to manage and rebuild the program from the ground up, the way a JT, Snyder or Cignetti could? Can he find the personnel that will complement his skill set and get the most out of his recruits, or would we end up like Florida State?

Bearbassics said:

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Cal88 said:

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JeffMcd said:

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Tosh is a winner. He has fire. He will need to step up to the next level as a HC, but RR will be there to help. He loves Cal. He's ambitious. If RR thinks he's the guy, I'm all in. I'm backing RR's judgement on the character arguments (although personally I don't see a big concern there based off what I've read and heard.) Just win baby!

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That part, about loving Cal, has been demonstrably proven false by his having gone to UW and stabbing his alma mater and his mentor in the back.

Look, you could say that Tosh is going to stock our future DL with a dozen Cameron Jordans and Andre Carters and we will win because of that, and that would be a somewhat believable pitch, but don't make up alternative realities about who the guy is and what he did to his alma mater.

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He was mad at Tedford and at an administration that was determined to not pay him what he was worth relative to his peers on staff and throughout the industry. That's different than not loving Cal, his alma mater. Tedford and that administration are gone, there's a new administration in place that is very committed to supporting football and rewarding winners.

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If you're not being paid what you think you are worth, you move on. Then, you find out what you're really worth. Some people who aren't being paid what they are worth should be happy about it. You don't burn bridges, unless you want to take your pound of flesh on your way out the door. And, therein you announce your human values.

If you're still mad about it, see a therapist.

BTW, I keep reading about what a great recruiter he is (not necessarily was). What players has he recruited lately who turned out to be top level? on the field? Recruited the kid in his own right, not just by virtue of working at a very attractive school?would that kid have come to Cal, if Tosh had been here?

What The Actual *****?! You are blaming Tedford for the academic performance of guys that Tosh recruited?! Isn't that part of recruiting? Like making sure the student athlete is ready for the rigors of college academics? Lots of Tosh's recruits did not belong at Cal. They had no interest in listening to tutors, going to class, and maintaining GPAs of 2.0 in the easiest majors Cal offered. They were too lazy to do the minimum (and not just in the classroom).

There were good reasons Tosh was not retained at UW and Alabama.

MilleniaBear said:

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What The Actual *****?! You are blaming Tedford for the academic performance of guys that Tosh recruited?! Isn't that part of recruiting? Like making sure the student athlete is ready for the rigors of college academics? Lots of Tosh's recruits did not belong at Cal. They had no interest in listening to tutors, going to class, and maintaining GPAs of 2.0 in the easiest majors Cal offered. They were too lazy to do the minimum (and not just in the classroom).

There were good reasons Tosh was not retained at UW and Alabama.

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Yes. It was Tedford's program.

JeffMcd said:

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Tosh is a winner.

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Tosh hasn't won anything, just like Tedford and Wilcox never won anything before taking their first head coaching jobs at Cal.

MilleniaBear said:

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What The Actual *****?! You are blaming Tedford for the academic performance of guys that Tosh recruited?! Isn't that part of recruiting? Like making sure the student athlete is ready for the rigors of college academics? Lots of Tosh's recruits did not belong at Cal. They had no interest in listening to tutors, going to class, and maintaining GPAs of 2.0 in the easiest majors Cal offered. They were too lazy to do the minimum (and not just in the classroom).

There were good reasons Tosh was not retained at UW and Alabama.

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A lot of that is on the University. Schools that win provide the academic support and easier classes that allow top athletes to succeed in their sport.

PAC-10-BEAR said:

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JeffMcd said:

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Tosh is a winner.

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Tosh hasn't won anything, just like Tedford and Wilcox never won anything before taking their first head coaching jobs at Cal.

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And Dan Lanning, Kyle Whittingham, jedd Fish, Bill Walsh, Mike White… Barry Alvarez…..all were first time head coaches. This "never been a head coach" is a ridiculous argument.
I

lol well in that case let's hire …

Alkiadt said:

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PAC-10-BEAR said:

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JeffMcd said:

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Tosh is a winner.

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Tosh hasn't won anything, just like Tedford and Wilcox never won anything before taking their first head coaching jobs at Cal.

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And Dan Lanning, Kyle Whittingham, jedd Fish, Bill Walsh, Mike White… Barry Alvarez…..all were first time head coaches. This "never been a head coach" is a ridiculous argument.

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You can't be considered a winner if you've never been a head coach is a truth statement, not an argument.