Yo, he worked for Saban for 5 years. NFL. Lanning.

Who do you think recruited those kids when we were good. He just needs a good OC, and we're looking a lot better than we have in years, imo.

01Bear said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

01Bear said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

These are the advanced metric efficiency stats:

2021: ESPN 40th / PFF 87th. (Prior to Dan Lanning and Tosh Lupoi arriving in Eugene)

then

2022: ESPN 37th / PFF 58th
2023: ESPN 15th / PFF 19th
2024: ESPN 21st / PFF 7th
2025: ESPN 5th / PFF 11th

---

It's hard to attribute that to Tosh and not to Lanning. Lanning was a defensive OC and specialist before he was ever made a HC. Might as well claim that the current Warriors dynasty is due to Draymond Green. Sure, he played a role, but without Kerr and (more importantly) Curry, Draymond would not be a NBA champion.

---

What could you see that would make you say Tosh did well? It seems like nothing.

Matter of fact, I have yet to see anyone who is anti Tosh allow any information move the needle even slightly for them.

It's all hyperbolic "someone else did that" implying his is the luckiest guy who has ever walked the earth.

Honestly, even if he just happens to align himself with all these great people who he leaches off of through pure luck, we should want a piece of that luck.

Take away 2012 and Shaq. 99% of the "He's not very good" goes away.

---

It's on Tosh supporters to prove what he did as an assistant coach that can be attributed to him. All the fluffing of Tosh just makes assumptions without providing any evidence of what he actually did.

---

So by that logic, what was the "evidence" that Kirby Smart was a good coach? Wasn't he just a DC under Saben? What was the "evidence" that Lanning was a good coach? Wasn't he just a DC under Smart? What is without question, and in common with all three, is that they were/are all considered great recruiters. They also all come from the Saben coaching "tree" which has generally produces good coaches, and well coached teams.

Tosh will bring talented players, an impressive resume, and above all, excitement to the Cal program. The Wilcox era was devoid of excitement.

MathTeacherMike said:

---

01Bear said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

01Bear said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

These are the advanced metric efficiency stats:

2021: ESPN 40th / PFF 87th. (Prior to Dan Lanning and Tosh Lupoi arriving in Eugene)

then

2022: ESPN 37th / PFF 58th
2023: ESPN 15th / PFF 19th
2024: ESPN 21st / PFF 7th
2025: ESPN 5th / PFF 11th

---

It's hard to attribute that to Tosh and not to Lanning. Lanning was a defensive OC and specialist before he was ever made a HC. Might as well claim that the current Warriors dynasty is due to Draymond Green. Sure, he played a role, but without Kerr and (more importantly) Curry, Draymond would not be a NBA champion.

---

What could you see that would make you say Tosh did well? It seems like nothing.

Matter of fact, I have yet to see anyone who is anti Tosh allow any information move the needle even slightly for them.

It's all hyperbolic "someone else did that" implying his is the luckiest guy who has ever walked the earth.

Honestly, even if he just happens to align himself with all these great people who he leaches off of through pure luck, we should want a piece of that luck.

Take away 2012 and Shaq. 99% of the "He's not very good" goes away.

---

It's on Tosh supporters to prove what he did as an assistant coach that can be attributed to him. All the fluffing of Tosh just makes assumptions without providing any evidence of what he actually did.

---

So by that logic, what was the "evidence" that Kirby Smart was a good coach? Wasn't he just a DC under Saben? What was the "evidence" that Lanning was a good coach? Wasn't he just a DC under Smart? What is without question, and in common with all three, is that they were/are all considered great recruiters. They also all come from the Saben coaching "tree" which has generally produces good coaches, and well coached teams.

Tosh will bring talented players, an impressive resume, and above all, excitement to the Cal program. The Wilcox era was devoid of excitement.

---

Is Cal hiring Kirby Smart or Dan Lanning? Tosh fans are taking it on faith that Tosh will be the next Lanning or Smart. But they can't really point to anything to show that Tosh is likely to have that kind of success. Past performances by other people is not guarantee future results by someone else.

01Bear said:

---

socaliganbear said:

---

01Bear said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

01Bear said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

These are the advanced metric efficiency stats:

2021: ESPN 40th / PFF 87th. (Prior to Dan Lanning and Tosh Lupoi arriving in Eugene)

then

2022: ESPN 37th / PFF 58th
2023: ESPN 15th / PFF 19th
2024: ESPN 21st / PFF 7th
2025: ESPN 5th / PFF 11th

---

It's hard to attribute that to Tosh and not to Lanning. Lanning was a defensive OC and specialist before he was ever made a HC. Might as well claim that the current Warriors dynasty is due to Draymond Green. Sure, he played a role, but without Kerr and (more importantly) Curry, Draymond would not be a NBA champion.

---

What could you see that would make you say Tosh did well? It seems like nothing.

Matter of fact, I have yet to see anyone who is anti Tosh allow any information move the needle even slightly for them.

It's all hyperbolic "someone else did that" implying his is the luckiest guy who has ever walked the earth.

Honestly, even if he just happens to align himself with all these great people who he leaches off of through pure luck, we should want a piece of that luck.

Take away 2012 and Shaq. 99% of the "He's not very good" goes away.

---

It's on Tosh supporters to prove what he did as an assistant coach that can be attributed to him. All the fluffing of Tosh just makes assumptions without providing any evidence of what he actually did.

---

His resume is the evidence. You are just discounting all of it and asking, what else?

---

What about his resume? What do you know of what he actually did at his stops? That's the question none of the Tosh supporters can answer. They just assume that because he was at Bama and Oregon that he's somehow responsible for the defenses there. But that ignores the fact that at Bama, Tosh worked under Nick Saban, a defensive specialist and at Oregon, he works under Dan Lanning, another defensive specialist. Are the defenses at those schools Tosh's or the HC's?

---

At this point you are just trolling.

What do you know precisely about any of the candidates? I assume you have detailed reports that break out the exact % of influence and credit each of them can be given for anything from off line protection adjustments to olb maintaining outside leverage.

Please share those details so we can benefit from understanding how you decompose this.

aws56 said:

---

01Bear said:

---

socaliganbear said:

---

01Bear said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

01Bear said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

These are the advanced metric efficiency stats:

2021: ESPN 40th / PFF 87th. (Prior to Dan Lanning and Tosh Lupoi arriving in Eugene)

then

2022: ESPN 37th / PFF 58th
2023: ESPN 15th / PFF 19th
2024: ESPN 21st / PFF 7th
2025: ESPN 5th / PFF 11th

---

It's hard to attribute that to Tosh and not to Lanning. Lanning was a defensive OC and specialist before he was ever made a HC. Might as well claim that the current Warriors dynasty is due to Draymond Green. Sure, he played a role, but without Kerr and (more importantly) Curry, Draymond would not be a NBA champion.

---

What could you see that would make you say Tosh did well? It seems like nothing.

Matter of fact, I have yet to see anyone who is anti Tosh allow any information move the needle even slightly for them.

It's all hyperbolic "someone else did that" implying his is the luckiest guy who has ever walked the earth.

Honestly, even if he just happens to align himself with all these great people who he leaches off of through pure luck, we should want a piece of that luck.

Take away 2012 and Shaq. 99% of the "He's not very good" goes away.

---

It's on Tosh supporters to prove what he did as an assistant coach that can be attributed to him. All the fluffing of Tosh just makes assumptions without providing any evidence of what he actually did.

---

His resume is the evidence. You are just discounting all of it and asking, what else?

---

What about his resume? What do you know of what he actually did at his stops? That's the question none of the Tosh supporters can answer. They just assume that because he was at Bama and Oregon that he's somehow responsible for the defenses there. But that ignores the fact that at Bama, Tosh worked under Nick Saban, a defensive specialist and at Oregon, he works under Dan Lanning, another defensive specialist. Are the defenses at those schools Tosh's or the HC's?

---

At this point you are just trolling.

What do you know precisely about any of the candidates? I assume you have detailed reports that break out the exact % of influence and credit each of them can be given for anything from off line protection adjustments to olb maintaining outside leverage.

Please share those details so we can benefit from understanding how you decompose this.

---

The burden isn't on Tosh critics to show he's not right for the HC position, it's on his supporters to prove he's the tight man for the job.

01Bear said:

---

aws56 said:

---

01Bear said:

---

socaliganbear said:

---

01Bear said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

01Bear said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

These are the advanced metric efficiency stats:

2021: ESPN 40th / PFF 87th. (Prior to Dan Lanning and Tosh Lupoi arriving in Eugene)

then

2022: ESPN 37th / PFF 58th
2023: ESPN 15th / PFF 19th
2024: ESPN 21st / PFF 7th
2025: ESPN 5th / PFF 11th

---

It's hard to attribute that to Tosh and not to Lanning. Lanning was a defensive OC and specialist before he was ever made a HC. Might as well claim that the current Warriors dynasty is due to Draymond Green. Sure, he played a role, but without Kerr and (more importantly) Curry, Draymond would not be a NBA champion.

---

What could you see that would make you say Tosh did well? It seems like nothing.

Matter of fact, I have yet to see anyone who is anti Tosh allow any information move the needle even slightly for them.

It's all hyperbolic "someone else did that" implying his is the luckiest guy who has ever walked the earth.

Honestly, even if he just happens to align himself with all these great people who he leaches off of through pure luck, we should want a piece of that luck.

Take away 2012 and Shaq. 99% of the "He's not very good" goes away.

---

It's on Tosh supporters to prove what he did as an assistant coach that can be attributed to him. All the fluffing of Tosh just makes assumptions without providing any evidence of what he actually did.

---

His resume is the evidence. You are just discounting all of it and asking, what else?

---

What about his resume? What do you know of what he actually did at his stops? That's the question none of the Tosh supporters can answer. They just assume that because he was at Bama and Oregon that he's somehow responsible for the defenses there. But that ignores the fact that at Bama, Tosh worked under Nick Saban, a defensive specialist and at Oregon, he works under Dan Lanning, another defensive specialist. Are the defenses at those schools Tosh's or the HC's?

---

At this point you are just trolling.

What do you know precisely about any of the candidates? I assume you have detailed reports that break out the exact % of influence and credit each of them can be given for anything from off line protection adjustments to olb maintaining outside leverage.

Please share those details so we can benefit from understanding how you decompose this.

---

The burden isn't on Tosh critics to show he's not right for the HC position, it's on his supporters to prove he's the tight man for the job.

---

Only in your head.

01Bear said:

---

aws56 said:

---

01Bear said:

---

socaliganbear said:

---

01Bear said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

01Bear said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

These are the advanced metric efficiency stats:

2021: ESPN 40th / PFF 87th. (Prior to Dan Lanning and Tosh Lupoi arriving in Eugene)

then

2022: ESPN 37th / PFF 58th
2023: ESPN 15th / PFF 19th
2024: ESPN 21st / PFF 7th
2025: ESPN 5th / PFF 11th

---

It's hard to attribute that to Tosh and not to Lanning. Lanning was a defensive OC and specialist before he was ever made a HC. Might as well claim that the current Warriors dynasty is due to Draymond Green. Sure, he played a role, but without Kerr and (more importantly) Curry, Draymond would not be a NBA champion.

---

What could you see that would make you say Tosh did well? It seems like nothing.

Matter of fact, I have yet to see anyone who is anti Tosh allow any information move the needle even slightly for them.

It's all hyperbolic "someone else did that" implying his is the luckiest guy who has ever walked the earth.

Honestly, even if he just happens to align himself with all these great people who he leaches off of through pure luck, we should want a piece of that luck.

Take away 2012 and Shaq. 99% of the "He's not very good" goes away.

---

It's on Tosh supporters to prove what he did as an assistant coach that can be attributed to him. All the fluffing of Tosh just makes assumptions without providing any evidence of what he actually did.

---

His resume is the evidence. You are just discounting all of it and asking, what else?

---

What about his resume? What do you know of what he actually did at his stops? That's the question none of the Tosh supporters can answer. They just assume that because he was at Bama and Oregon that he's somehow responsible for the defenses there. But that ignores the fact that at Bama, Tosh worked under Nick Saban, a defensive specialist and at Oregon, he works under Dan Lanning, another defensive specialist. Are the defenses at those schools Tosh's or the HC's?

---

At this point you are just trolling.

What do you know precisely about any of the candidates? I assume you have detailed reports that break out the exact % of influence and credit each of them can be given for anything from off line protection adjustments to olb maintaining outside leverage.

Please share those details so we can benefit from understanding how you decompose this.

---

The burden isn't on Tosh critics to show he's not right for the HC position, it's on his supporters to prove he's the tight man for the job.

---

Until we know for a fact that Ron has hired him or someone else, it is a debate. Both sides can present their evidence. I do agree that there is reason to be suspicious of his DC chops. It also may not matter as HC if he (and Ron) hires a good DC, though I am more interested in who his OC would be. How he would do as a HC, managing the entire staff, is a guess, for both sides.

socaliganbear said:

---

01Bear said:

---

aws56 said:

---

01Bear said:

---

socaliganbear said:

---

01Bear said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

01Bear said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

These are the advanced metric efficiency stats:

2021: ESPN 40th / PFF 87th. (Prior to Dan Lanning and Tosh Lupoi arriving in Eugene)

then

2022: ESPN 37th / PFF 58th
2023: ESPN 15th / PFF 19th
2024: ESPN 21st / PFF 7th
2025: ESPN 5th / PFF 11th

---

It's hard to attribute that to Tosh and not to Lanning. Lanning was a defensive OC and specialist before he was ever made a HC. Might as well claim that the current Warriors dynasty is due to Draymond Green. Sure, he played a role, but without Kerr and (more importantly) Curry, Draymond would not be a NBA champion.

---

What could you see that would make you say Tosh did well? It seems like nothing.

Matter of fact, I have yet to see anyone who is anti Tosh allow any information move the needle even slightly for them.

It's all hyperbolic "someone else did that" implying his is the luckiest guy who has ever walked the earth.

Honestly, even if he just happens to align himself with all these great people who he leaches off of through pure luck, we should want a piece of that luck.

Take away 2012 and Shaq. 99% of the "He's not very good" goes away.

---

It's on Tosh supporters to prove what he did as an assistant coach that can be attributed to him. All the fluffing of Tosh just makes assumptions without providing any evidence of what he actually did.

---

His resume is the evidence. You are just discounting all of it and asking, what else?

---

What about his resume? What do you know of what he actually did at his stops? That's the question none of the Tosh supporters can answer. They just assume that because he was at Bama and Oregon that he's somehow responsible for the defenses there. But that ignores the fact that at Bama, Tosh worked under Nick Saban, a defensive specialist and at Oregon, he works under Dan Lanning, another defensive specialist. Are the defenses at those schools Tosh's or the HC's?

---

At this point you are just trolling.

What do you know precisely about any of the candidates? I assume you have detailed reports that break out the exact % of influence and credit each of them can be given for anything from off line protection adjustments to olb maintaining outside leverage.

Please share those details so we can benefit from understanding how you decompose this.

---

The burden isn't on Tosh critics to show he's not right for the HC position, it's on his supporters to prove he's the tight man for the job.

---

Only in your head.

---

Actually, that's how it works in the real world when it comes to rational debate. When a party makes an assertion, he bears the burden of proving that position.

01Bear said:

---

MathTeacherMike said:

---

01Bear said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

01Bear said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

These are the advanced metric efficiency stats:

2021: ESPN 40th / PFF 87th. (Prior to Dan Lanning and Tosh Lupoi arriving in Eugene)

then

2022: ESPN 37th / PFF 58th
2023: ESPN 15th / PFF 19th
2024: ESPN 21st / PFF 7th
2025: ESPN 5th / PFF 11th

---

It's hard to attribute that to Tosh and not to Lanning. Lanning was a defensive OC and specialist before he was ever made a HC. Might as well claim that the current Warriors dynasty is due to Draymond Green. Sure, he played a role, but without Kerr and (more importantly) Curry, Draymond would not be a NBA champion.

---

What could you see that would make you say Tosh did well? It seems like nothing.

Matter of fact, I have yet to see anyone who is anti Tosh allow any information move the needle even slightly for them.

It's all hyperbolic "someone else did that" implying his is the luckiest guy who has ever walked the earth.

Honestly, even if he just happens to align himself with all these great people who he leaches off of through pure luck, we should want a piece of that luck.

Take away 2012 and Shaq. 99% of the "He's not very good" goes away.

---

It's on Tosh supporters to prove what he did as an assistant coach that can be attributed to him. All the fluffing of Tosh just makes assumptions without providing any evidence of what he actually did.

---

So by that logic, what was the "evidence" that Kirby Smart was a good coach? Wasn't he just a DC under Saben? What was the "evidence" that Lanning was a good coach? Wasn't he just a DC under Smart? What is without question, and in common with all three, is that they were/are all considered great recruiters. They also all come from the Saben coaching "tree" which has generally produces good coaches, and well coached teams.

Tosh will bring talented players, an impressive resume, and above all, excitement to the Cal program. The Wilcox era was devoid of excitement.

---

Is Cal hiring Kirby Smart or Dan Lanning? Tosh fans are taking it on faith that Tosh will be the next Lanning or Smart. But they can't really point to anything to show that Tosh is likely to have that kind of success. Past performances by other people is not guarantee future results by someone else.

---

You keep using this "taking it on faith" criticism, as if that isn't the case for every program that ever hired a new head coach. Since Cal isn't a blueblood program that can throw tons of cash around and get whoever they want, we will always be hiring someone who either (1) has never been a head coach before or (2) has never coached at a major program before. So there will be some things you have to take on faith. It's just part of the game here.

And I wouldn't even call it "faith." It's more like, we have to take a chance on someone, so who has the best upside? And if the guy doesn't work out, will we be comfortable punting on him and trying out another guy who also has some unproven qualities?

To me Tosh is fine. His resume is good enough to deserve a shot as a P4 head coach. I don't think it's guaranteed that he'll work out, but if Rivera is using a good process to evaluate his options and he has the donors on board to support him as a new hire, then let's do it. If Tosh doesn't work out, I hope Ron and the donors are ready to move on before we get stuck in another treadmill of mediocrity like we had with Wilcox. That's really how you should run a program.

He might be a good HC or might not. But, at the end of the day, the Cal program can't do better. We won't get a Brian Kelly type.

sycasey said:

---

01Bear said:

---

MathTeacherMike said:

---

01Bear said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

01Bear said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

These are the advanced metric efficiency stats:

2021: ESPN 40th / PFF 87th. (Prior to Dan Lanning and Tosh Lupoi arriving in Eugene)

then

2022: ESPN 37th / PFF 58th
2023: ESPN 15th / PFF 19th
2024: ESPN 21st / PFF 7th
2025: ESPN 5th / PFF 11th

---

It's hard to attribute that to Tosh and not to Lanning. Lanning was a defensive OC and specialist before he was ever made a HC. Might as well claim that the current Warriors dynasty is due to Draymond Green. Sure, he played a role, but without Kerr and (more importantly) Curry, Draymond would not be a NBA champion.

---

What could you see that would make you say Tosh did well? It seems like nothing.

Matter of fact, I have yet to see anyone who is anti Tosh allow any information move the needle even slightly for them.

It's all hyperbolic "someone else did that" implying his is the luckiest guy who has ever walked the earth.

Honestly, even if he just happens to align himself with all these great people who he leaches off of through pure luck, we should want a piece of that luck.

Take away 2012 and Shaq. 99% of the "He's not very good" goes away.

---

It's on Tosh supporters to prove what he did as an assistant coach that can be attributed to him. All the fluffing of Tosh just makes assumptions without providing any evidence of what he actually did.

---

So by that logic, what was the "evidence" that Kirby Smart was a good coach? Wasn't he just a DC under Saben? What was the "evidence" that Lanning was a good coach? Wasn't he just a DC under Smart? What is without question, and in common with all three, is that they were/are all considered great recruiters. They also all come from the Saben coaching "tree" which has generally produces good coaches, and well coached teams.

Tosh will bring talented players, an impressive resume, and above all, excitement to the Cal program. The Wilcox era was devoid of excitement.

---

Is Cal hiring Kirby Smart or Dan Lanning? Tosh fans are taking it on faith that Tosh will be the next Lanning or Smart. But they can't really point to anything to show that Tosh is likely to have that kind of success. Past performances by other people is not guarantee future results by someone else.

---

You keep using this "taking it on faith" criticism, as if that isn't the case for every program that ever hired a new head coach. Since Cal isn't a blueblood program that can throw tons of cash around and get whoever they want, we will always be hiring someone who either (1) has never been a head coach before or (2) has never coached at a major program before. So there will be some things you have to take on faith. It's just part of the game here.

And I wouldn't even call it "faith." It's more like, we have to take a chance on someone, so who has the best upside? And if the guy doesn't work out, will we be comfortable punting on him and trying out another guy who also has some unproven qualities?

To me Tosh is fine. His resume is good enough to deserve a shot as a P4 head coach. I don't think it's guaranteed that he'll work out, but if Rivera is using a good process to evaluate his options and he has the donors on board to support him as a new hire, then let's do it. If Tosh doesn't work out, I hope Ron and the donors are ready to move on before we get stuck in another treadmill of mediocrity like we had with Wilcox. That's really how you should run a program.

---

Not quite. I'm not the one insisting that Tosh is a must hire or pretending he's the Cal football messiah. I'm looking at him critically and seeing lots of question marks. It's his fanboys who are hellbent on believing he's the best thing since sliced bread, but who have difficulty pointing to anything to support this absent their own Blue tinted glasses and their belief that Tosh loves Cal (never mind Tosh's infamous history of betraying Cal*).

At the end of the day, there are too many question marks with Tosh and nothing to show he has the ability to turn around a football program. I'd rather Cal pursued a coach who has shown an ability to do the latter. To me, that's the higher ceiling than a guy who has proven he can recruit (in the pre-NIL era) but hasn't been able to prove he can do everything else necessary to run a successful college football program.


*Let's not get into the mental gymnastics that are necessary to argue that Cal football program led by Tedford was not a Cal football program and therefore Cal.

https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2025/11/no-6-oregon-continues-mastery-containing-washington-qb-demond-williams-jr.html

Lanning and linebacker Bryce Boettcher credited defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi and his staff for coming up with a good game plan. Boettcher also praised the team's discipline and commitment to that plan, including the secondary's coverage, which helped the pass rush.

Bearbassics said:

---

https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2025/11/no-6-oregon-continues-mastery-containing-washington-qb-demond-williams-jr.html

Lanning and linebacker Bryce Boettcher credited defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi and his staff for coming up with a good game plan. Boettcher also praised the team's discipline and commitment to that plan, including the secondary's coverage, which helped the pass rush.

---

If that's true, then that would make me feel better about Tosh's ability to run the defensive aide of things. If he is hired as HC and he can bring in an OC to run a productive offense, then Cal can make some noise in the ACC next year. I'm not saying I'm sold on Tosh, but I am saying this is the sort of evidence that was missing from too many Tosh fans' praise and "analysis" of his abilities. Instead, they just claimed "he's a good DC and good at Xs and Os" as an article of faith.

01Bear said:

---

sycasey said:

---

01Bear said:

---

MathTeacherMike said:

---

01Bear said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

01Bear said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

These are the advanced metric efficiency stats:

2021: ESPN 40th / PFF 87th. (Prior to Dan Lanning and Tosh Lupoi arriving in Eugene)

then

2022: ESPN 37th / PFF 58th
2023: ESPN 15th / PFF 19th
2024: ESPN 21st / PFF 7th
2025: ESPN 5th / PFF 11th

---

It's hard to attribute that to Tosh and not to Lanning. Lanning was a defensive OC and specialist before he was ever made a HC. Might as well claim that the current Warriors dynasty is due to Draymond Green. Sure, he played a role, but without Kerr and (more importantly) Curry, Draymond would not be a NBA champion.

---

What could you see that would make you say Tosh did well? It seems like nothing.

Matter of fact, I have yet to see anyone who is anti Tosh allow any information move the needle even slightly for them.

It's all hyperbolic "someone else did that" implying his is the luckiest guy who has ever walked the earth.

Honestly, even if he just happens to align himself with all these great people who he leaches off of through pure luck, we should want a piece of that luck.

Take away 2012 and Shaq. 99% of the "He's not very good" goes away.

---

It's on Tosh supporters to prove what he did as an assistant coach that can be attributed to him. All the fluffing of Tosh just makes assumptions without providing any evidence of what he actually did.

---

So by that logic, what was the "evidence" that Kirby Smart was a good coach? Wasn't he just a DC under Saben? What was the "evidence" that Lanning was a good coach? Wasn't he just a DC under Smart? What is without question, and in common with all three, is that they were/are all considered great recruiters. They also all come from the Saben coaching "tree" which has generally produces good coaches, and well coached teams.

Tosh will bring talented players, an impressive resume, and above all, excitement to the Cal program. The Wilcox era was devoid of excitement.

---

Is Cal hiring Kirby Smart or Dan Lanning? Tosh fans are taking it on faith that Tosh will be the next Lanning or Smart. But they can't really point to anything to show that Tosh is likely to have that kind of success. Past performances by other people is not guarantee future results by someone else.

---

You keep using this "taking it on faith" criticism, as if that isn't the case for every program that ever hired a new head coach. Since Cal isn't a blueblood program that can throw tons of cash around and get whoever they want, we will always be hiring someone who either (1) has never been a head coach before or (2) has never coached at a major program before. So there will be some things you have to take on faith. It's just part of the game here.

And I wouldn't even call it "faith." It's more like, we have to take a chance on someone, so who has the best upside? And if the guy doesn't work out, will we be comfortable punting on him and trying out another guy who also has some unproven qualities?

To me Tosh is fine. His resume is good enough to deserve a shot as a P4 head coach. I don't think it's guaranteed that he'll work out, but if Rivera is using a good process to evaluate his options and he has the donors on board to support him as a new hire, then let's do it. If Tosh doesn't work out, I hope Ron and the donors are ready to move on before we get stuck in another treadmill of mediocrity like we had with Wilcox. That's really how you should run a program.

---

Not quite. I'm not the one insisting that Tosh is a must hire or pretending he's the Cal football messiah. I'm looking at him critically and seeing lots of question marks. It's his fanboys who are hellbent on believing he's the best thing since sliced bread, but who have difficulty pointing to anything to support this absent their own Blue tinted glasses and their belief that Tosh loves Cal (never mind Tosh's infamous history of betraying Cal*).

At the end of the day, there are too many question marks with Tosh and nothing to show he has the ability to turn around a football program. I'd rather Cal pursued a coach who has shown an ability to do the latter. To me, that's the higher ceiling than a guy who has proven he can recruit (in the pre-NIL era) but hasn't been able to prove he can do everything else necessary to run a successful college football program.


*Let's not get into the mental gymnastics that are necessary to argue that Cal football program led by Tedford was not a Cal football program and therefore Cal.

---

IMO you are also ignoring or downplaying his obvious strengths (recruiting, success at major programs) and trying to sell an idea that he's definitely a bad choice. I find this pretty unconvincing. He's a reasonable choice for a program in Cal's position. The rest I leave up to the people running the program, and fortunately it seems like we might actually have someone competent making the decision for the first time in a long time.

(IMO Wilcox was a reasonable choice too. The process for firing Sonny and getting him wasn't great, pretty late in the cycle, but he was a reasonable candidate for Cal. The issue wasn't so much hiring him, it was giving him way too much rope and a long extension.)

01Bear said:

---

socaliganbear said:

---

01Bear said:

---

aws56 said:

---

01Bear said:

---

socaliganbear said:

---

01Bear said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

01Bear said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

These are the advanced metric efficiency stats:

2021: ESPN 40th / PFF 87th. (Prior to Dan Lanning and Tosh Lupoi arriving in Eugene)

then

2022: ESPN 37th / PFF 58th
2023: ESPN 15th / PFF 19th
2024: ESPN 21st / PFF 7th
2025: ESPN 5th / PFF 11th

---

It's hard to attribute that to Tosh and not to Lanning. Lanning was a defensive OC and specialist before he was ever made a HC. Might as well claim that the current Warriors dynasty is due to Draymond Green. Sure, he played a role, but without Kerr and (more importantly) Curry, Draymond would not be a NBA champion.

---

What could you see that would make you say Tosh did well? It seems like nothing.

Matter of fact, I have yet to see anyone who is anti Tosh allow any information move the needle even slightly for them.

It's all hyperbolic "someone else did that" implying his is the luckiest guy who has ever walked the earth.

Honestly, even if he just happens to align himself with all these great people who he leaches off of through pure luck, we should want a piece of that luck.

Take away 2012 and Shaq. 99% of the "He's not very good" goes away.

---

It's on Tosh supporters to prove what he did as an assistant coach that can be attributed to him. All the fluffing of Tosh just makes assumptions without providing any evidence of what he actually did.

---

His resume is the evidence. You are just discounting all of it and asking, what else?

---

What about his resume? What do you know of what he actually did at his stops? That's the question none of the Tosh supporters can answer. They just assume that because he was at Bama and Oregon that he's somehow responsible for the defenses there. But that ignores the fact that at Bama, Tosh worked under Nick Saban, a defensive specialist and at Oregon, he works under Dan Lanning, another defensive specialist. Are the defenses at those schools Tosh's or the HC's?

---

At this point you are just trolling.

What do you know precisely about any of the candidates? I assume you have detailed reports that break out the exact % of influence and credit each of them can be given for anything from off line protection adjustments to olb maintaining outside leverage.

Please share those details so we can benefit from understanding how you decompose this.

---

The burden isn't on Tosh critics to show he's not right for the HC position, it's on his supporters to prove he's the tight man for the job.

---

Only in your head.

---

Actually, that's how it works in the real world when it comes to rational debate. When a party makes an assertion, he bears the burden of proving that position.

---

Thanks for explaining life in the real world.

How fun it must be on the side that can discount any and all evidence that doesn't conform to their line of thinking and ask everyone else to find answers that only you find acceptable.

To be clear, I'm not even sure that tosh is a good hire. I'm not stumping for him. I just think your approach to this dialog is somewhere between stupid and disingenuous.

Which is why I think you are a troll. So troll on you mighty bears.

calumnus said:

---

01Bear said:

---

upsetof86 said:

---

There's a lot of insider lobbying for Tosh is what this post tells me. Is it not reasonable to consider Lanning is largely responsible for how well the D performed as a counterpoint?

---

BearGreg seems to be one of the Tosh fans. Either that or Todh to Cal is a fait accompli and BearGreg is just providing cover for Ron Rivera's decision. I have yo say, I'm disappointed that BearGreg won't acknowledge that Oregon's defensive success may be attributable more to Lanning than to Tosh.

---

Agree, if Tosh is the guy I'd like to know so we can be having a conversation of what it might take for him to be successful, who he might get as OC, etc instead of why other candidates would be better.

---

Why? What we do is for our own entertainment. We are not some brain trust that decision makers consult before they make a call.

01Bear said:

---

BeggarEd said:

---

Did Tosh bang your GF when you were an undergrad or what? You pop up in every thread to try and discount him or hate on him. Weird behavior.

---

I don't discount him, I'm just looking at him critically, as I would with any other potential candidate. Unfortunately, too many other posters in this forum have Blue colored lenses and just see Tosh the Cal alumnus and recruiter then project that into how he's some sort of coaching savant. There's zero evidence for that supposition, but they adopt it as an article of faith. I'm just challenging that position by pointing out that he really has not proven to be someone who (1) can develop players and prepare them for the next level, (2) has an understanding of schemes necessary for a HC, or even (3) has the requisite ability to be a HC (let alone one who can turn around a floundering mediocre program).

It's just so ofd that there are so many posters worshipping at the altar of Tosh. I really don't understand that. While it's true that he was an excellent recruiter about a decade ago, the recruiting game is now changed considerably. Now, paying kids to play is completely legal, so he's lost that competitive advantage. Along those lines, kids are looking at each school's NIL packages before they sign; if a school's NIL doesn't match a kid's expectations or offers from other programs, he'll likely nix that school from his list.

(However, it should also be remembered that NIL isn't the end all be all of recruiting. Cal lost Nando because the staff couldn't develop him for the next level. This brings back the problem that Tosh has not proven that he managed to develop players. Sure he's worked under Saban and Lanning, but that's even more of a strike against him as a developer of talent, as those guys were/are defensive specialists, making it hard to credit Tosh with their development instead if those coaches. Had he coached under an offensive specialists, then the development of the defensive players under his care could be more attributable to him.)

Moreover, in today's college football world, the portal has changed the game greatly. Ten years ago, after a school signed a player, the player was more or less stuck at that program. Sure, he could transfer out, but he'd have to sit out a year of eligibility. Now, however, players can transfer out at the end of every year. So if a player gets buyer's remorse (after receiving his year of NIL payment) and realizes he's not being developed appropriately (again, see Nando), he can portal out.

Yet, none of the Tosh worshippers have addressed any of this in their evaluations of him as a potential HC, even though his forte is supposed to be recruiting. It seems blindingly obvious that if a guy's forte is recruiting, there should be something about how he has thrived in today's recruiting world. Unfortunately, by recruiting at Bama and Oregon, two blueblood football schools, it's hard to say for sure how much Tosh played a role was in bringing in the recruits. Those kids knew they were going to be developed for the next level by the coaching staff (and in Oregon's case, that they were sure to be paid to play.)

All of this elides Tosh's personal history with Cal. It's well-known Tosh betrayed Cal on his way to UW. That's not being relitigated here. Rather, my posts are taking a critical look at the candidate so many supporters seem to want. Tosh's resume isn't terribly different from Wilcox's before he was appointed Cal's HC (the main difference is that Tosh is supposed to be a superior recruiter). Cal just suffered 9 years of mediocrity under Wilcox. Cal can't afford to waste any more time under a Wilcox redux.

---

Thanks O1 Bear
I agree
Tosh was a great recruiter under the Pre- Portal and Pre-NIL universe. But I doubt that experience translates well in the current universe
Tosh might be a good DC candidate but it is unclear whether he warrants all the credit for the success of the defense of his current teams.

So is Tosh a good candidate for HC:
Maybe. Maybe Not.

Does Tosh bring a lot of "baggage" with him:
Probably

evanluck said:

---

calumnus said:

---

01Bear said:

---

upsetof86 said:

---

There's a lot of insider lobbying for Tosh is what this post tells me. Is it not reasonable to consider Lanning is largely responsible for how well the D performed as a counterpoint?

---

BearGreg seems to be one of the Tosh fans. Either that or Todh to Cal is a fait accompli and BearGreg is just providing cover for Ron Rivera's decision. I have yo say, I'm disappointed that BearGreg won't acknowledge that Oregon's defensive success may be attributable more to Lanning than to Tosh.

---

Agree, if Tosh is the guy I'd like to know so we can be having a conversation of what it might take for him to be successful, who he might get as OC, etc instead of why other candidates would be better.

---

Why? What we do is for our own entertainment. We are not some brain trust that decision makers consult before they make a call.

---

As you said, it is for our own entertainment, but if Tosh is already hired, if it is a done deal, I'd personally rather be optimistic about him, start rooting for him to succeed and start thinking about, debating and speculating about the next decisions like who he adds to his staff. Just more fun IMO.

BearGreg said:

---

These are the advanced metric efficiency stats:

2021: ESPN 40th / PFF 87th. (Prior to Dan Lanning and Tosh Lupoi arriving in Eugene)

then

2022: ESPN 37th / PFF 58th
2023: ESPN 15th / PFF 19th
2024: ESPN 21st / PFF 7th
2025: ESPN 5th / PFF 11th

---

It's a GOOD post, despite silly pushback it received!!

Rather than attributing success to the head coach, I'd prefer to see:

1) the overall budget, including payouts to players at Oregon as compared to all other schools. In the NFL and NBA, there is both a cap and public reporting of salaries. But I think in college neither exist, and that creates the opportunity for MASSIVE differentials between squads.

2) your stat showed only 1 year prior to Tosh. But that year could have been a downside aberration for Oregon, and so 5 years prior would be more interesting. I think this doesn't matter, though, because NIL and transfer rules didn't exist then.

Follow the money.
NCAAF is a whole new ballgame.

My take is:

1. Tosh is a fabulous recruiter.
2. Tosh builds strong relationships with players.
3. Tosh has a history of success, and broad experience.

4. But it is the budget which will ALWAYS be the dominant determining factor for success in this current era.

No profit sharing, no cap, no disclosure of budget? Come on now!

This doesn't mean recruiting, relationships, coaching don't matter. Of course they do. But money buys players. Just look at the Dodgers, Yankees, etc.

Cal's NIL budget rank is unknown to me, so I have zero expectations for anything, and just enjoy rooting for my fond memories of many years ago.

Thanks for helping keep them stirring!

sycasey said:

---

01Bear said:

---

sycasey said:

---

01Bear said:

---

MathTeacherMike said:

---

01Bear said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

01Bear said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

These are the advanced metric efficiency stats:

2021: ESPN 40th / PFF 87th. (Prior to Dan Lanning and Tosh Lupoi arriving in Eugene)

then

2022: ESPN 37th / PFF 58th
2023: ESPN 15th / PFF 19th
2024: ESPN 21st / PFF 7th
2025: ESPN 5th / PFF 11th

---

It's hard to attribute that to Tosh and not to Lanning. Lanning was a defensive OC and specialist before he was ever made a HC. Might as well claim that the current Warriors dynasty is due to Draymond Green. Sure, he played a role, but without Kerr and (more importantly) Curry, Draymond would not be a NBA champion.

---

What could you see that would make you say Tosh did well? It seems like nothing.

Matter of fact, I have yet to see anyone who is anti Tosh allow any information move the needle even slightly for them.

It's all hyperbolic "someone else did that" implying his is the luckiest guy who has ever walked the earth.

Honestly, even if he just happens to align himself with all these great people who he leaches off of through pure luck, we should want a piece of that luck.

Take away 2012 and Shaq. 99% of the "He's not very good" goes away.

---

It's on Tosh supporters to prove what he did as an assistant coach that can be attributed to him. All the fluffing of Tosh just makes assumptions without providing any evidence of what he actually did.

---

So by that logic, what was the "evidence" that Kirby Smart was a good coach? Wasn't he just a DC under Saben? What was the "evidence" that Lanning was a good coach? Wasn't he just a DC under Smart? What is without question, and in common with all three, is that they were/are all considered great recruiters. They also all come from the Saben coaching "tree" which has generally produces good coaches, and well coached teams.

Tosh will bring talented players, an impressive resume, and above all, excitement to the Cal program. The Wilcox era was devoid of excitement.

---

Is Cal hiring Kirby Smart or Dan Lanning? Tosh fans are taking it on faith that Tosh will be the next Lanning or Smart. But they can't really point to anything to show that Tosh is likely to have that kind of success. Past performances by other people is not guarantee future results by someone else.

---

You keep using this "taking it on faith" criticism, as if that isn't the case for every program that ever hired a new head coach. Since Cal isn't a blueblood program that can throw tons of cash around and get whoever they want, we will always be hiring someone who either (1) has never been a head coach before or (2) has never coached at a major program before. So there will be some things you have to take on faith. It's just part of the game here.

And I wouldn't even call it "faith." It's more like, we have to take a chance on someone, so who has the best upside? And if the guy doesn't work out, will we be comfortable punting on him and trying out another guy who also has some unproven qualities?

To me Tosh is fine. His resume is good enough to deserve a shot as a P4 head coach. I don't think it's guaranteed that he'll work out, but if Rivera is using a good process to evaluate his options and he has the donors on board to support him as a new hire, then let's do it. If Tosh doesn't work out, I hope Ron and the donors are ready to move on before we get stuck in another treadmill of mediocrity like we had with Wilcox. That's really how you should run a program.

---

Not quite. I'm not the one insisting that Tosh is a must hire or pretending he's the Cal football messiah. I'm looking at him critically and seeing lots of question marks. It's his fanboys who are hellbent on believing he's the best thing since sliced bread, but who have difficulty pointing to anything to support this absent their own Blue tinted glasses and their belief that Tosh loves Cal (never mind Tosh's infamous history of betraying Cal*).

At the end of the day, there are too many question marks with Tosh and nothing to show he has the ability to turn around a football program. I'd rather Cal pursued a coach who has shown an ability to do the latter. To me, that's the higher ceiling than a guy who has proven he can recruit (in the pre-NIL era) but hasn't been able to prove he can do everything else necessary to run a successful college football program.


*Let's not get into the mental gymnastics that are necessary to argue that Cal football program led by Tedford was not a Cal football program and therefore Cal.

---

IMO you are also ignoring or downplaying his obvious strengths (recruiting, success at major programs) and trying to sell an idea that he's definitely a bad choice. I find this pretty unconvincing. He's a reasonable choice for a program in Cal's position. The rest I leave up to the people running the program, and fortunately it seems like we might actually have someone competent making the decision for the first time in a long time.

(IMO Wilcox was a reasonable choice too. The process for firing Sonny and getting him wasn't great, pretty late in the cycle, but he was a reasonable candidate for Cal. The issue wasn't so much hiring him, it was giving him way too much rope and a long extension.)

---

If Tosh was head coaching material, he would have been hired from the Bama staff. That would have been the time. Several other programs would have had time to evaluate him and make the call. We did they see or not see?

Rushinbear said:

---

sycasey said:

---

01Bear said:

---

sycasey said:

---

01Bear said:

---

MathTeacherMike said:

---

01Bear said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

01Bear said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

These are the advanced metric efficiency stats:

2021: ESPN 40th / PFF 87th. (Prior to Dan Lanning and Tosh Lupoi arriving in Eugene)

then

2022: ESPN 37th / PFF 58th
2023: ESPN 15th / PFF 19th
2024: ESPN 21st / PFF 7th
2025: ESPN 5th / PFF 11th

---

It's hard to attribute that to Tosh and not to Lanning. Lanning was a defensive OC and specialist before he was ever made a HC. Might as well claim that the current Warriors dynasty is due to Draymond Green. Sure, he played a role, but without Kerr and (more importantly) Curry, Draymond would not be a NBA champion.

---

What could you see that would make you say Tosh did well? It seems like nothing.

Matter of fact, I have yet to see anyone who is anti Tosh allow any information move the needle even slightly for them.

It's all hyperbolic "someone else did that" implying his is the luckiest guy who has ever walked the earth.

Honestly, even if he just happens to align himself with all these great people who he leaches off of through pure luck, we should want a piece of that luck.

Take away 2012 and Shaq. 99% of the "He's not very good" goes away.

---

It's on Tosh supporters to prove what he did as an assistant coach that can be attributed to him. All the fluffing of Tosh just makes assumptions without providing any evidence of what he actually did.

---

So by that logic, what was the "evidence" that Kirby Smart was a good coach? Wasn't he just a DC under Saben? What was the "evidence" that Lanning was a good coach? Wasn't he just a DC under Smart? What is without question, and in common with all three, is that they were/are all considered great recruiters. They also all come from the Saben coaching "tree" which has generally produces good coaches, and well coached teams.

Tosh will bring talented players, an impressive resume, and above all, excitement to the Cal program. The Wilcox era was devoid of excitement.

---

Is Cal hiring Kirby Smart or Dan Lanning? Tosh fans are taking it on faith that Tosh will be the next Lanning or Smart. But they can't really point to anything to show that Tosh is likely to have that kind of success. Past performances by other people is not guarantee future results by someone else.

---

You keep using this "taking it on faith" criticism, as if that isn't the case for every program that ever hired a new head coach. Since Cal isn't a blueblood program that can throw tons of cash around and get whoever they want, we will always be hiring someone who either (1) has never been a head coach before or (2) has never coached at a major program before. So there will be some things you have to take on faith. It's just part of the game here.

And I wouldn't even call it "faith." It's more like, we have to take a chance on someone, so who has the best upside? And if the guy doesn't work out, will we be comfortable punting on him and trying out another guy who also has some unproven qualities?

To me Tosh is fine. His resume is good enough to deserve a shot as a P4 head coach. I don't think it's guaranteed that he'll work out, but if Rivera is using a good process to evaluate his options and he has the donors on board to support him as a new hire, then let's do it. If Tosh doesn't work out, I hope Ron and the donors are ready to move on before we get stuck in another treadmill of mediocrity like we had with Wilcox. That's really how you should run a program.

---

Not quite. I'm not the one insisting that Tosh is a must hire or pretending he's the Cal football messiah. I'm looking at him critically and seeing lots of question marks. It's his fanboys who are hellbent on believing he's the best thing since sliced bread, but who have difficulty pointing to anything to support this absent their own Blue tinted glasses and their belief that Tosh loves Cal (never mind Tosh's infamous history of betraying Cal*).

At the end of the day, there are too many question marks with Tosh and nothing to show he has the ability to turn around a football program. I'd rather Cal pursued a coach who has shown an ability to do the latter. To me, that's the higher ceiling than a guy who has proven he can recruit (in the pre-NIL era) but hasn't been able to prove he can do everything else necessary to run a successful college football program.


*Let's not get into the mental gymnastics that are necessary to argue that Cal football program led by Tedford was not a Cal football program and therefore Cal.

---

IMO you are also ignoring or downplaying his obvious strengths (recruiting, success at major programs) and trying to sell an idea that he's definitely a bad choice. I find this pretty unconvincing. He's a reasonable choice for a program in Cal's position. The rest I leave up to the people running the program, and fortunately it seems like we might actually have someone competent making the decision for the first time in a long time.

(IMO Wilcox was a reasonable choice too. The process for firing Sonny and getting him wasn't great, pretty late in the cycle, but he was a reasonable candidate for Cal. The issue wasn't so much hiring him, it was giving him way too much rope and a long extension.)

---

If Tosh was head coaching material, he would have been hired from the Bama staff. That would have been the time. Several other programs would have had time to evaluate him and make the call. We did they see or not see?

---

He was last at Alabama 7 years ago. Is the suggestion that nothing could have happened in those 7 years to improve his head coaching resume?

Rushinbear said:

---

If Tosh was head coaching material, he would have been hired from the Bama staff. That would have been the time. Several other programs would have had time to evaluate him and make the call. What did they see or not see?

---

Do you realize how ridiculous you sound here?
You think that Alabama was going to hire someone with NO head coaching experience? They are annually in the title hunt, and you think something is wrong with a guy because he didn't get looked at for the job?

Let's take a look at the resume of who they hired instead:


Kalen Douglas DeBoer (born October 24, 1974) is an American college football coach. He is the head football coach for the University of Alabama, a position he has held since 2024.

He also served as the head coach at the University of Sioux Falls from 2005 to 2009, Fresno State from 2020 to 2021, and the University of Washington from 2022 to 2023.

At Sioux Falls, his teams won three NAIA Football National Championships, in 2006, 2008, and 2009. DeBoer's overall record as a head coach is 12318.

concordtom said:

---

Rushinbear said:

---

If Tosh was head coaching material, he would have been hired from the Bama staff. That would have been the time. Several other programs would have had time to evaluate him and make the call. What did they see or not see?

---

Do you realize how ridiculous you sound here?
You think that Alabama was going to hire someone with NO head coaching experience? They are annually in the title hunt, and you think something is wrong with a guy because he didn't get looked at for the job?

Let's take a look at the resume of who they hired instead:


Kalen Douglas DeBoer (born October 24, 1974) is an American college football coach. He is the head football coach for the University of Alabama, a position he has held since 2024.

He also served as the head coach at the University of Sioux Falls from 2005 to 2009, Fresno State from 2020 to 2021, and the University of Washington from 2022 to 2023.

At Sioux Falls, his teams won three NAIA Football National Championships, in 2006, 2008, and 2009. DeBoer's overall record as a head coach is 12318.

---

no, no, no, you guys are missing my point. the world had plenty of time to evaluate tosh during his 4, 5 years at Bama. You'd think that if he had the goods, someone would have hired him to be a head coach. Maybe not at an elite school, but at least a good starting point. Instead, a year here and a year there in the NFL, before another team stacked with D players.

Now, maybe he's a Mendoza (everyone overlooked him), but how many times does that happen? Another possibility is that's he's who most see him as. A good DL/DC coach and recruiter.

You gotta know that RR knows all about this and is able to separate the wheat from the chaff. And, he'll be able to hold him up against all the other candidates (numbering 10 or fewer at this point).

Rushinbear said:

---

concordtom said:

---

Rushinbear said:

---

If Tosh was head coaching material, he would have been hired from the Bama staff. That would have been the time. Several other programs would have had time to evaluate him and make the call. What did they see or not see?

---

Do you realize how ridiculous you sound here?
You think that Alabama was going to hire someone with NO head coaching experience? They are annually in the title hunt, and you think something is wrong with a guy because he didn't get looked at for the job?

Let's take a look at the resume of who they hired instead:


Kalen Douglas DeBoer (born October 24, 1974) is an American college football coach. He is the head football coach for the University of Alabama, a position he has held since 2024.

He also served as the head coach at the University of Sioux Falls from 2005 to 2009, Fresno State from 2020 to 2021, and the University of Washington from 2022 to 2023.

At Sioux Falls, his teams won three NAIA Football National Championships, in 2006, 2008, and 2009. DeBoer's overall record as a head coach is 12318.

---

no, no, no, you guys are missing my point. the world had plenty of time to evaluate tosh during his 4, 5 years at Bama. You'd think that if he had the goods, someone would have hired him to be a head coach. Maybe not at an elite school, but at least a good starting point. Instead, a year here and a year there in the NFL, before another team stacked with D players.

Now, maybe he's a Mendoza (everyone overlooked him), but how many times does that happen? Another possibility is that's he's who most see him as. A good DL/DC coach and recruiter.

You gotta know that RR knows all about this and is able to separate the wheat from the chaff. And, he'll be able to hold him up against all the other candidates (numbering 10 or fewer at this point).

---

You seem to have an idea that "head coach material" is a fixed value for every individual and nothing could ever change that over time. Maybe he wasn't ready at Alabama and is now? Again, it's been 7 years.

I think I now understand he was say other schools could have hired him as a HC, not just Alabama.

sycasey said:

---

Rushinbear said:

---

concordtom said:

---

Rushinbear said:

---

If Tosh was head coaching material, he would have been hired from the Bama staff. That would have been the time. Several other programs would have had time to evaluate him and make the call. What did they see or not see?

---

Do you realize how ridiculous you sound here?
You think that Alabama was going to hire someone with NO head coaching experience? They are annually in the title hunt, and you think something is wrong with a guy because he didn't get looked at for the job?

Let's take a look at the resume of who they hired instead:


Kalen Douglas DeBoer (born October 24, 1974) is an American college football coach. He is the head football coach for the University of Alabama, a position he has held since 2024.

He also served as the head coach at the University of Sioux Falls from 2005 to 2009, Fresno State from 2020 to 2021, and the University of Washington from 2022 to 2023.

At Sioux Falls, his teams won three NAIA Football National Championships, in 2006, 2008, and 2009. DeBoer's overall record as a head coach is 12318.

---

no, no, no, you guys are missing my point. the world had plenty of time to evaluate tosh during his 4, 5 years at Bama. You'd think that if he had the goods, someone would have hired him to be a head coach. Maybe not at an elite school, but at least a good starting point. Instead, a year here and a year there in the NFL, before another team stacked with D players.

Now, maybe he's a Mendoza (everyone overlooked him), but how many times does that happen? Another possibility is that's he's who most see him as. A good DL/DC coach and recruiter.

You gotta know that RR knows all about this and is able to separate the wheat from the chaff. And, he'll be able to hold him up against all the other candidates (numbering 10 or fewer at this point).

---

You seem to have an idea that "head coach material" is a fixed value for every individual and nothing could ever change that over time. Maybe he wasn't ready at Alabama and is now? Again, it's been 7 years.

---

It's possible. RR knows more than all of us.

concordtom said:

---

I think I now understand he was say other schools could have hired him as a HC, not just Alabama.

---

I think when you're as big time of a coordinator as he is, you could be very choosy about your first head coaching position. It is a tremendous increase in pressure. Needs to be the right opportunity with the right program that is set up for you to succeed. Coordinators who are elite recruiters at places like Bama and Oregon under elite head coaches is a pretty sweet deal which you wouldn't give up for an opportunity at say Oregon State.

75bear said:

---

The way I look at it - there are risks and downsides to every hire. Cal needs short term upside given realignment on the front burner. So let's pick someone with a high ceiling in the short term - enter Tosh Lupoi. If he fails (and of course he might), we'll move on and find someone else and we can reopen the conversation again and find a new Eck type of coach. In my mind, Lupoi gives us the greatest upside in the next year, and this tips the scale for me.

Whoever is chosen, we need to rally around them and give them the best chance to succeed. At least all of us can agree on this.

---

Our ability to move on if we take a risk and he fails is largely determined by the contract we give him. Some of the Tosh lobbyists are calling for a 5 year $8 million contract to prove "we are serious."

That seems unnecessary and foolish for a number of reasons. The first being that his success will largely be determined by his staff and NIL for his players, so we need a big budget for that and anything we pay him beyond what it takes for him to come here detracts from that.

evanluck said:

---

concordtom said:

---

I think I now understand he was say other schools could have hired him as a HC, not just Alabama.

---

I think when you're as big time of a coordinator as he is, you could be very choosy about your first head coaching position. It is a tremendous increase in pressure. Needs to be the right opportunity with the right program that is set up for you to succeed. Coordinators who are elite recruiters at places like Bama and Oregon under elite head coaches is a pretty sweet deal which you wouldn't give up for an opportunity at say Oregon State.

---

Meaning he may not be dying to be a head coach.

BTW, I wonder if JKS met Tosh during his two weeks there? Must have.

So your saying Cal will recruit these studs oregun has on defense at every level of the D? I don't think so.

Whomever the new HC will be, RR will have final say on who the OC and DC are. Gone are the days (given we have a GM) where the HC will make a unilateral decision on coaching hires. RR will vet them out. If Tosh is in fact the new HC, I can't imagine he would desire to hire an OC in a complete bubble. He has zero experience (other than buddies he's made over the years) to make such a critical decision. Offense puts butts in seats, Cal needs to score points and have a dynamic offense.

Also, I'm kind of over having a defense minded HC, especially in this age of college ball. Sure defense wins championships but damn it has been sooo long since Cal could score points.

Rushinbear said:

---

sycasey said:

---

01Bear said:

---

sycasey said:

---

01Bear said:

---

MathTeacherMike said:

---

01Bear said:

---

LunchTime said:

---

01Bear said:

---

BearGreg said:

---

These are the advanced metric efficiency stats:

2021: ESPN 40th / PFF 87th. (Prior to Dan Lanning and Tosh Lupoi arriving in Eugene)

then

2022: ESPN 37th / PFF 58th
2023: ESPN 15th / PFF 19th
2024: ESPN 21st / PFF 7th
2025: ESPN 5th / PFF 11th

---

It's hard to attribute that to Tosh and not to Lanning. Lanning was a defensive OC and specialist before he was ever made a HC. Might as well claim that the current Warriors dynasty is due to Draymond Green. Sure, he played a role, but without Kerr and (more importantly) Curry, Draymond would not be a NBA champion.

---

What could you see that would make you say Tosh did well? It seems like nothing.

Matter of fact, I have yet to see anyone who is anti Tosh allow any information move the needle even slightly for them.

It's all hyperbolic "someone else did that" implying his is the luckiest guy who has ever walked the earth.

Honestly, even if he just happens to align himself with all these great people who he leaches off of through pure luck, we should want a piece of that luck.

Take away 2012 and Shaq. 99% of the "He's not very good" goes away.

---

It's on Tosh supporters to prove what he did as an assistant coach that can be attributed to him. All the fluffing of Tosh just makes assumptions without providing any evidence of what he actually did.

---

So by that logic, what was the "evidence" that Kirby Smart was a good coach? Wasn't he just a DC under Saben? What was the "evidence" that Lanning was a good coach? Wasn't he just a DC under Smart? What is without question, and in common with all three, is that they were/are all considered great recruiters. They also all come from the Saben coaching "tree" which has generally produces good coaches, and well coached teams.

Tosh will bring talented players, an impressive resume, and above all, excitement to the Cal program. The Wilcox era was devoid of excitement.

---

Is Cal hiring Kirby Smart or Dan Lanning? Tosh fans are taking it on faith that Tosh will be the next Lanning or Smart. But they can't really point to anything to show that Tosh is likely to have that kind of success. Past performances by other people is not guarantee future results by someone else.

---

You keep using this "taking it on faith" criticism, as if that isn't the case for every program that ever hired a new head coach. Since Cal isn't a blueblood program that can throw tons of cash around and get whoever they want, we will always be hiring someone who either (1) has never been a head coach before or (2) has never coached at a major program before. So there will be some things you have to take on faith. It's just part of the game here.

And I wouldn't even call it "faith." It's more like, we have to take a chance on someone, so who has the best upside? And if the guy doesn't work out, will we be comfortable punting on him and trying out another guy who also has some unproven qualities?

To me Tosh is fine. His resume is good enough to deserve a shot as a P4 head coach. I don't think it's guaranteed that he'll work out, but if Rivera is using a good process to evaluate his options and he has the donors on board to support him as a new hire, then let's do it. If Tosh doesn't work out, I hope Ron and the donors are ready to move on before we get stuck in another treadmill of mediocrity like we had with Wilcox. That's really how you should run a program.

---

Not quite. I'm not the one insisting that Tosh is a must hire or pretending he's the Cal football messiah. I'm looking at him critically and seeing lots of question marks. It's his fanboys who are hellbent on believing he's the best thing since sliced bread, but who have difficulty pointing to anything to support this absent their own Blue tinted glasses and their belief that Tosh loves Cal (never mind Tosh's infamous history of betraying Cal*).

At the end of the day, there are too many question marks with Tosh and nothing to show he has the ability to turn around a football program. I'd rather Cal pursued a coach who has shown an ability to do the latter. To me, that's the higher ceiling than a guy who has proven he can recruit (in the pre-NIL era) but hasn't been able to prove he can do everything else necessary to run a successful college football program.


*Let's not get into the mental gymnastics that are necessary to argue that Cal football program led by Tedford was not a Cal football program and therefore Cal.

---

IMO you are also ignoring or downplaying his obvious strengths (recruiting, success at major programs) and trying to sell an idea that he's definitely a bad choice. I find this pretty unconvincing. He's a reasonable choice for a program in Cal's position. The rest I leave up to the people running the program, and fortunately it seems like we might actually have someone competent making the decision for the first time in a long time.

(IMO Wilcox was a reasonable choice too. The process for firing Sonny and getting him wasn't great, pretty late in the cycle, but he was a reasonable candidate for Cal. The issue wasn't so much hiring him, it was giving him way too much rope and a long extension.)

---

If Tosh was head coaching material, he would have been hired from the Bama staff. That would have been the time. Several other programs would have had time to evaluate him and make the call. We did they see or not see?

---

I think you have to remember what his actual career trajectory was like. Prior to Alabama he was a position coach at Cal and Washington. He left both Cal and Washington under less than ideal terms so joining Saban's staff was a bit of a rehab project. He was at Bama for 4 years but year 1 he was just a defensive analyst, year 2 an outside linebackers coach, and it was only year 3 he became a Co-DC for the first time. His fourth year was his first year as a solo DC. It's not that unusual that a lot of colleges wouldn't look at him as a HC candidate at that point. And to be honest, maybe it was also still too close to the allegations of recruiting violations at UW (and to also be honest those allegations of paying recruits matter way less in a post-NIL world). Maybe a G5 or lower division school would have taken a chance.

So I don't think it's that weird for him to go to the NFL as a next step instead. It's quite reasonable that a coach would want to try to get a foothold in the league vs rising the ranks in college even if it meant he was back to being a position coach vs a more senior role in a smaller profile school. Might have felt like a downward step after being at Bama. For all we know Tosh saw it as a chance to prove or sharpen aspects of his coaching beyond his reputation in recruiting or a chance to just put some distance between the recruiting allegations.

Three 1 year stints on 3 NFL teams isn't great, but at least it was under head coaches that got the boot as part of overall coaching staff turnover and not a case of being fired individually by a HC who hired him seeking improvement.

After that, and notably after COVID as it would not seem like a great time to return to college coaching for the 2020 or maybe even the 2021 season, he goes to another top program in Oregon and actually serves as a DC or Co-DC for 3 years. At this point he's had way more overall experience and coordinator experience than he had coming from Bama and the new world of NIL also seems to diminish the risks that he previously carried.

All that to say that you can't compare 2018-2019 Tosh as a HC candidate to 2025 Tosh.

If a HC candidate is not qualified to choose his OC and DC, he's probably shouldn't bother applying for the job. Tosh surely knows lots more people in college football than Ron Rivera. Not to say Ron won't be there with excellent counsel, but you tell a guy in an HC interview that he won't get to pick his staff, most guys will just walk out.

Agree that, if it is Tosh, the OC will be key.

StillNoStanfurdium said:

---

I think you have to remember what his actual career trajectory was like. Prior to Alabama he was a position coach at Cal and Washington. He left both Cal and Washington under less than ideal terms so joining Saban's staff was a bit of a rehab project. He was at Bama for 4 years but year 1 he was just a defensive analyst, year 2 an outside linebackers coach, and it was only year 3 he became a Co-DC for the first time. His fourth year was his first year as a solo DC. It's not that unusual that a lot of colleges wouldn't look at him as a HC candidate at that point. And to be honest, maybe it was also still too close to the allegations of recruiting violations at UW (and to also be honest those allegations of paying recruits matter way less in a post-NIL world). Maybe a G5 or lower division school would have taken a chance.

So I don't think it's that weird for him to go to the NFL as a next step instead. It's quite reasonable that a coach would want to try to get a foothold in the league vs rising the ranks in college even if it meant he was back to being a position coach vs a more senior role in a smaller profile school. Might have felt like a downward step after being at Bama. For all we know Tosh saw it as a chance to prove or sharpen aspects of his coaching beyond his reputation in recruiting or a chance to just put some distance between the recruiting allegations.

Three 1 year stints on 3 NFL teams isn't great, but at least it was under head coaches that got the boot as part of overall coaching staff turnover and not a case of being fired individually by a HC who hired him seeking improvement.

After that, and notably after COVID as it would not seem like a great time to return to college coaching for the 2020 or maybe even the 2021 season, he goes to another top program in Oregon and actually serves as a DC or Co-DC for 3 years. At this point he's had way more overall experience and coordinator experience than he had coming from Bama and the new world of NIL also seems to diminish the risks that he previously carried.

All that to say that you can't compare 2018-2019 Tosh as a HC candidate to 2025 Tosh.

---

Tosh is definitely a different candidate today than he was when he left Bama. However, his departure from Bama is at least relevant. He was sole DC for one year and he's the only one of Saban's DCs who didn't move on to a better gig or at least a lateral type move. If he was a well respected coordinator (and not just a recruiter), he probably doesn't float around as a position coach in the NFL. Saban's other DCs were Kevin Steele (left for same role at Clemson), Kirby Smart, Jeremy Pruitt (left to be Head Coach at Tennessee) and then Pete Golding after Tosh who went to Ole Miss to be their DC and was just named their head coach with Kiffin leaving.

Someone asked previously to compare Lanning as DC at Georgia and Tosh at Bama. I don't have an answer but the fact that Lanning was considered a top HC candidate and ultimately landed a top job like Oregon and Tosh had to take a defensive line coach position suggests that they weren't viewed similarly by the powers that be who evaluate college coaches.

With all that said, his last few years at Oregon seem to be very positive.

Eck is more likely than Tosh to leave us - I think he'd be the top candidate for Wisconsin once Luke Fickell gets fired in the next year or two, and I bet he'd want to go to his alma mater.

If Tosh can win at Cal, I think he'd be like Dillingham at ASU or Clark Lea at Vandy. Nobody is talking about either of those guys leaving their alma mater.