Checking my numbers again

sycasey said:

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Yeah I noticed that too and wasn't a big fan. I'll note that when forced by the situation to just air it out at the end of the half, JKS took us 90 yards in 3 passes.

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When forces to air it out in the 4th quarter, it wasn't quite as good.

I was remarking on this playcalling during the game. Coach Lup hired Somerville because he thought he'd be great, so there must be something there. Coordinators aren't hired strictly for recruiting; they just aren't.

My experience with coaches is that they usually get hired because they know their jobs. Exceptions are retreads and nepo-babies, but I don't think Somerville is the latter, certainly not the former.

Maybe they thought they could eventually impose their will on the Bruins... and it looked like it was starting to happen. Or maybe it looked like (F)UCLA was giving them the run in order to stop JKS. Whatever it was, it didn't work. I'd like to know more.

LunchTime said:

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sycasey said:

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Yeah I noticed that too and wasn't a big fan. I'll note that when forced by the situation to just air it out at the end of the half, JKS took us 90 yards in 3 passes.

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When forces to air it out in the 4th quarter, it wasn't quite as good.

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Yes but desperation time was even more desperate at that point. I think if you're passing a bit more often on early downs when the defense doesn't think you HAVE to pass there might be more opportunity.

OK, I ran the numbers again, and I would encourage you to look at this more critically.

First, looking at first down:

Drives where Cal scored, Cal ran 12 first downs and passed 7 first downs. That includes on first and goal passing 3 times and running once (twice if penalty is included).

So, on scoring drives outside the opponents 10, Cal ran 11 times on first down to passing 4 times.


OTOH, on non-scoring drives, Cal ran 9 times and passed 9 times on first down. (excluding the first half kneel)



So, what was the outcome of the 1st down plays?
When Cal Ran on first down the median second down was 7 yards. The average was 6.53, with two first downs.
When Cal passed on first down, the median second down was 10 yards, with an average of 8.8 with two first downs (and one first down on penalty).

Running on first, Cal had zero negative plays. Passing had two negative plays on first.


What surprised me is despite running much more often on first down in scoring drives, the median was the same for run, but average was a half yard less for the first down run on scoring drives.



For Cals scoring drives, 3 started with a run, and one with a pass (an incomplete).
For non-scoring drives, 6 started with a run, and 3 with a pass (including two first down passes). Both first down passes were followed by First down passes for a total of 1 yard combined. Two of the runs to start the drive were followed up by first down passes. 2 more found first downs with a pass on 3rd.




The reality is play calling was fine, maybe passing too often. Execution was problematic.

Similarly on defense, we had a guy make a pick and then immediately blow his assignment. The Defense also showed first-game execution issues.

In the end, the core problem is: Cal wasnt able to wrap up and let a guy slide along the line until he broke free. A massive high visibility borked assignment, and dozens of failing to maintain assignment. That isnt talent, that is what we have seen since the NIL started for defenses that have never played a snap together. Some teams, like FSU never pull it together. Others do. With Tosh as coach, I am confident that the assignment failures on film will become a focus and cleaned up before Clemson.

On the offense, JKS didn't exploit the coverage and rush UCLA was running, which happens. But more, he faced a bad tip and a missed route for interceptions. That sucks, but again, there is a difference between lack of talent, and a missed assignment or bad luck.

Overall, I have very little concern about play calling, and a lot of concern about execution.

Sorry, this needs to be specifically addressed:

"I think if you're passing a bit more often on early downs when the defense doesn't think you HAVE to pass there might be more opportunity."

Excluding that drive, passing on first down came up with 5 positive plays, and 9 0 yard or negative plays.


1st and 2nd down passing ("early downs" I suppose?), 4 had negative yards and 15 had no yards. 12 had positive yards, but only 8 had more than 4 yards. and three of those were inside the 10.


OTOH, using the same downs, Cal ran 1 additional running play, 2 had negative yards, 4 had no yards, 27 had positive yards, and had 8 plays over 4 yards.


I dont think the stats agree with your take. I think the opposite is shown.

However, what the stats do show is that WHEN JKS had time to throw deep, he had some great chunk plays. And yes, that last drive in the first half was awesome, but it was an anomaly. The reason it worked was the defense allowed him to throw deep. We took what we were given. The reality is there were only a handful of plays where JKS had time to throw deep. That has nothing to do with the play call of pass vs run, and everything to do with starting a drive with 51 second left, and the defense giving up the rush for coverage.

calumnus said:

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The biggest disappointment for me is we did not seem to run any two tight end sets when I think that should be our base set, for multiple reasons. Then a 50-50 mix of play action passing, especially on first down.

The other set Id like to see is Adams or someone else quick and speedy in the slot to Sagapolutele's left, with a Jet sweep or reverse as a counter to Sagapolutele, a lefty,, rolling left.

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100%

What bothers me is that JKS has a year of college ball under him, and has vision. A two tight end set gives a lot of pass plays to exploit a UCLA type rush. But that takes a presnap read, a call out, and then the TE to run the route to pushing the over extended edge rush.

I would have liked to see more screen passes with how aggressive UCLA was.

But really, we had the win in hand, despite all the rest. It didnt fall apart outside of maybe 5 plays. the interceptions, fumble, missed coverage assignment and a TD run. The TD run to close the game was vanity. We actually run the play called, on offense and defense, and we win.


If this was game 6 or season 2, it would be more concerning, but Tosh basically built a band new team in 9 months. Thats why I am ok with seeing how he handles the first live snaps going south.

calumnus said:

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The biggest disappointment for me is we did not seem to run any two tight end sets when I think that should be our base set, for multiple reasons.

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IMO the biggest reason for running two tight ends is that it gives JKS a better chance of not being knocked to the ground. Keeping JKS off the ground and not running for his life so often is important both for success this season and for retaining him.

LunchTime said:

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calumnus said:

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The biggest disappointment for me is we did not seem to run any two tight end sets when I think that should be our base set, for multiple reasons. Then a 50-50 mix of play action passing, especially on first down.

The other set Id like to see is Adams or someone else quick and speedy in the slot to Sagapolutele's left, with a Jet sweep or reverse as a counter to Sagapolutele, a lefty,, rolling left.

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100%

What bothers me is that JKS has a year of college ball under him, and has vision. A two tight end set gives a lot of pass plays to exploit a UCLA type rush. But that takes a presnap read, a call out, and then the TE to run the route to pushing the over extended edge rush.

I would have liked to see more screen passes with how aggressive UCLA was.

But really, we had the win in hand, despite all the rest. It didnt fall apart outside of maybe 5 plays. the interceptions, fumble, missed coverage assignment and a TD run. The TD run to close the game was vanity. We actually run the play called, on offense and defense, and we win.


If this was game 6 or season 2, it would be more concerning, but Tosh basically built a band new team in 9 months. Thats why I am ok with seeing how he handles the first live snaps going south.

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Agreed. This game was always at best a toss-up with UCLA having the edge in coaching experience and continuity for game 1. I will give the staff at least a few games before I draw any conclusions.

That is why I objected to people saying this was a "must win." I knew this might well happen. However, look at our start to the 2006 season: we were down 35-3 going into the 4th quarter before a couple of Joe Ayoob TDs against the backups. Longshore was 11 of 20 for 85 yards, zero TDs and an INT before getting pulled. We still ended up ranked in the Top 10 at one point and should have gone to the Rose Bowl.

There is plenty of season left for improvement. Let's hope they do.

calumnus said:

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The biggest disappointment for me is we did not seem to run any two tight end sets when I think that should be our base set, for multiple reasons. Then a 50-50 mix of play action passing, especially on first down.

The other set Id like to see is Adams or someone else quick and speedy in the slot to Sagapolutele's left, with a Jet sweep or reverse as a counter to Sagapolutele, a lefty,, rolling left.

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I saw a decent number of plays where we had two tight ends, one stacked directly behind the other.

75bear said:

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calumnus said:

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The biggest disappointment for me is we did not seem to run any two tight end sets when I think that should be our base set, for multiple reasons. Then a 50-50 mix of play action passing, especially on first down.

The other set Id like to see is Adams or someone else quick and speedy in the slot to Sagapolutele's left, with a Jet sweep or reverse as a counter to Sagapolutele, a lefty,, rolling left.

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I saw a decent number of plays where we had two tight ends, one stacked directly behind the other.

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Thanks. Did we have any off tackle running plays out of that set with both TEs sealing the edge? A TE screen off of play action up the middle? Did we do anything creative with the mismatches that set creates?

Our starting tight end was hurt, Mimi started, and I think our third string tight end is a true freshman. Probably the reason for limited two tight end formations.

LunchTime said:

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Sorry, this needs to be specifically addressed:

"I think if you're passing a bit more often on early downs when the defense doesn't think you HAVE to pass there might be more opportunity."

Excluding that drive, passing on first down came up with 5 positive plays, and 9 0 yard or negative plays.


1st and 2nd down passing ("early downs" I suppose?), 4 had negative yards and 15 had no yards. 12 had positive yards, but only 8 had more than 4 yards. and three of those were inside the 10.


OTOH, using the same downs, Cal ran 1 additional running play, 2 had negative yards, 4 had no yards, 27 had positive yards, and had 8 plays over 4 yards.


I dont think the stats agree with your take. I think the opposite is shown.

However, what the stats do show is that WHEN JKS had time to throw deep, he had some great chunk plays. And yes, that last drive in the first half was awesome, but it was an anomaly. The reason it worked was the defense allowed him to throw deep. We took what we were given. The reality is there were only a handful of plays where JKS had time to throw deep. That has nothing to do with the play call of pass vs run, and everything to do with starting a drive with 51 second left, and the defense giving up the rush for coverage.

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You're using stats all wrong. They should be used to support my hot takes. Otherwise, why use them at all?

Grrrrah76 said:

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Our starting tight end was hurt, Mimi started, and I think our third string tight end is a true freshman. Probably the reason for limited two tight end formations.

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Makes sense. Hopefully we get Thomas back soon and we use our TE strength with Purcell and Mini to our advantage.

LunchTime said:

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sycasey said:

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Yeah I noticed that too and wasn't a big fan. I'll note that when forced by the situation to just air it out at the end of the half, JKS took us 90 yards in 3 passes.

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When forces to air it out in the 4th quarter, it wasn't quite as good.

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Looking at the first Int again if Strong pulls it in it's a fabulous play by JKS. That was a catch that should have been made.
Great passes often require excellent catches to complete and that miss was on Strong in my opinion. I really thought UCLA looked better overall, but Cal was on the verge of stealing one.
That interception and the botched 4th down play just killed our chances. I was also not overly impressed with our play calling.
Too Wilcox. I turned to my wife and said we might as well just mark down 2nd and 7, as we ran on first down time and again.
Funny, sure enough, right after I said that Cal ran on first down and gained 3, putting us at 2nd and 7. We so need to mix it up.
I realize he was a legend, but how I miss the great Bill Walsh.
He never let a down dictate whether he would run or pass,
and so often had just the right play called for success,
keeping the defense off balance, as they just didn't know
what was coming next.