Prediction for this year?

7,950 Views | 54 Replies | Last: 14 yr ago by SiniCal
XXXBEAR
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Cal has top defense, new QB, big receivers, fast, improved OL, but Oregon #3 and Stanfurd #6 and each freshman starter costs a win, with reduced home field advantage at AT&T. 6-6 and lucky to get it... Next year is our year.

Convince me otherwise...
liverflukes
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6-6 followed by 10-2 and DO turning a corner....

GO BEARS!
Twams
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8-4 as of right now...
dajo9
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7-5 this year, 10-2 next year and playing USC in the Pac-12 championship game for the Rose Bowl at L.A. where we will lose and go on to the Alamo Bowl, where we'll win to finish 11-3.
FremontBear
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7-5 and a minor bowl is about right.
SeymoreBear
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It's completely a waste of time to do this SERIOUSLY at this point because of our lack of knowledge on maynard....

here's my breakdown if maynard is a 18td/6 int 2800 yard qb...tavech doesn't miss a fieldgoal and our rb combo (of 2) has atleast 1800 yards.


FSU- we should win
Pres-duh
Colorado-they will be on an upswing but the coaching doesn't come into play this early---we still win by atleast 2 td's

this puts us at 3-0 and gives team alot of confidence (good or bad it's what it does)

at washington---theres a huge chip on shoulder from last year, and it's still too early for their new qb...i say we pull this out

at oregon--we lose a pretty close one

USC- we will be frustrated at this point but i still see us losing..

utah-we aren't going to lose 3 in arow especially to a team that beat us in a bowl

so tha'ts 5-2

ucla- has nothing
6-2

washington state- plays much better and has progressed in the season but we squeak one out
7-2

oregon state---this is a toss up for me, if they get rogers back and he's doing well then they win, if not i think we do--they have no quizz and lost alot i'm still going to say win
8-2
stanford---luck is too good (still a toss up but I give to stanford)

8-3

asu----this depends on how they had been doing --if they are rollin and living up to hype then they roll us---if they aren't and their morale is down and we are 8-3---then we win

so that gives me a pretty fair and obtainable 8-4 and MAYBE 9-3

I say no worse than 7-5 and I predict 8-4

then next year pac-12 champs
OzoneTheCat
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I'm hoping for a 6-6 regular season followed by a bowl win. 5-7 is certainly a possibility and maybe even more realistic. 4-8 or worse would be a real downer.
GB54
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Anything less than 7-5 would be a disappointment to me.
Cal_Fan2
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GB54;540744 said:

Anything less than 7-5 would be a disappointment to me.


yes.....I think we do better then what is expected....there are stirrings not coming from JT or the coaches that this team might just be pretty good, but might take some games to gel
pnaidu
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8-4 is my prediction, it is possible that get as bad as 5-7 or as good as 9-3, If we can win the bowl then that would put us at 9-4. next year we will be 13-1.
AirOski
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drunkoski;540713 said:

5-7 followed by 7-5 and people here saying we turned the corner.


I think we could do 8-4 this year, and I don't see us doing much better in 2012.
BerlinerBaer
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6-6

Seymore, that's a lot to ask out of this team. I mean Giorgio missing no field goals? Never??
SeymoreBear
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AirOski;540764 said:

I think we could do 8-4 this year, and I don't see us doing much better in 2012.


how so...
oskidunker
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Watched too many years of this. Still have no idea from year to year how they will do. Too many factors besides Maynard. I HOPE for 7 wins or more and I would really like to beat USC.:gobears:
cubzwin
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Probably lose to Oregon but beat USC. Also beat Stanford in a huge upset but lose a game we ought to win. Hence 10 and 2.
SiniCal
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Quote:

Prediction for this year?


Unsolicited free advice, and worth every penny..

If there was a do-over / booth-bait lookalike thread in the next month (hint hint), this topic seems well suited for attaching one of those little used poster-created polling option thingees.

Tempted? Starting point is the "add a poll to this thread" choice from the upper-right pull-down "thread tools" button, for any thread where you're the originating poster.

o Been there, done that (once), found polls not hard to launch, even days after a thread starts.

o No more than 10 poll choices allowed, max. (late add: even more ambitious multiple choice per vote mode can be enabled)

o Date when the voting finishes is your choice too.

o Polls should hopefully stimulate discussion, not replace it.

o Be DARNED sure you've phrased the poll and choices [U]exactly[/U] as intended, unlike this fool. Heck if I could find any means of either tweeking spelling / titles, or nuke the beast after launch.

#GoBears!


[My w/l picks? Can't say. Never have nor ever will predict another team gonna win. Not that I'm gonna shout 14-0 in a crowded room, neither.]
CAL6371
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SeymourBear - I sure hope you're right, but I don't see us beating Utah or OSU. I also see us probably losing a game we should win due to the youth of the team. I see 6-6 as the most likely outcome. Then a fine year at Memorial in 2012.
Hail2Calif
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I think this will be a 2003-like year, where we pick up steam in the 2nd half of the year as guys start to gel, Maynard's play becomes better and our OL starts to get it together. Bieglow has worked is way from #3 to #2, to a 1A/1B RB situation as he picks up confidence and a better understanding of our system.

So we finsh 7-5 including a 3-1 November to earn a bowl bid.

With the extra practice, everything comes together, including Bigelow winning bowl MVP with a 17 carry, 142 yard, 3 TD performance to cap the season off with an exciting bowl win to get us to 8-5, and 2012 we are hosting the Pac-12 Championship Game at Memorial.
Cal88
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Sep 3 Fresno State W
Sep 10 Colorado * W
Sep 17 Presbyterian W
Sep 24 @Washington TOSSUP/W
Oct 1 BYE
Oct 6 @Oregon L
Oct 13 U$C TOSSUP/L
Oct 22 Utah TOSSUP/W
Oct 29 @UCLA W
Nov 5 WSU W
Nov 12 OSU TOSSUP
Nov 19 @Stanford TOSSUP/L
Nov 25 @ASU TOSSUP/W


There are 5 very probable wins and one near-certain loss. Tossups analysis:

@UW: this one is on the coaches, we have the tools to win it despite UW being on an upwards trend. we should win a close one. 65% win probability

USC: If we will lose big in Eugene the thursday before, like we did the last time we went there, there could be some big morale carryover into this game. USC will still be motivated at that point. Weaker home field advantage and stronger/more experienced QB means SC wins a close one on paper. 40% win probability

UU: the extra time off from the thursday game will help the team refocus, as well as progress at OL, QB and D manifests itself, team starts to gel. 65% win probability

OSU: they have had our number, but we have the momentum from 2-3 straight wins and team is getting better and more comfortable with its temporary digs. 60% win probability

@Furd: Cal is improved, D playing inspired, but Luck too much to overcome in 4th qrtr, Furd wins close game. 35% win probability

@ASU: if at that point the Devs are playing with the CCG in line after beating their rivals the week before, and we're demoralized by a close BG loss, they should win. If this game was played earlier or if ASU is out of the championship picture, we would probably beat an improved ASU team even on the road. 60%

Record, by decreasing order of likelihood:

Most likely:
8-4
7-5

less likely, but not all that shocking:
6-6
9-3
not very likely but still in the realm of possibility:
5-7
shocking:
10-2
4-8

Finally, we should win our bowl game, OL and D will be pretty strong by then, the team will be stronger than its record/ranking going into postseason. A 9-4 record would be a very reasonable stretch goal and a good launching pin to a championship campaign goal for 2012.
OzoneTheCat
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5-7 unlikely? I can easily see 7 losses in that schedule. Furd is no toss up and if ASU meets up to their hype that is an almost guaranteed loss at their place. Utah and Washington are going to be tougher than most people think.
Cal84
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6-6, same as I predicted for last year. Our defense is marginally worse than last year and I think our offense will be marginally better.
jesterno2
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SeymoreBear;540723 said:

It's completely a waste of time to do this SERIOUSLY at this point because of our lack of knowledge on maynard....

here's my breakdown if maynard is a 18td/6 int 2800 yard qb...tavech doesn't miss a fieldgoal and our rb combo (of 2) has atleast 1800 yards.


FSU- we should win
Pres-duh
Colorado-they will be on an upswing but the coaching doesn't come into play this early---we still win by atleast 2 td's

this puts us at 3-0 and gives team alot of confidence (good or bad it's what it does)

at washington---theres a huge chip on shoulder from last year, and it's still too early for their new qb...i say we pull this out

at oregon--we lose a pretty close one

USC- we will be frustrated at this point but i still see us losing..

utah-we aren't going to lose 3 in arow especially to a team that beat us in a bowl

so tha'ts 5-2

ucla- has nothing
6-2

washington state- plays much better and has progressed in the season but we squeak one out
7-2

oregon state---this is a toss up for me, if they get rogers back and he's doing well then they win, if not i think we do--they have no quizz and lost alot i'm still going to say win
8-2
stanford---luck is too good (still a toss up but I give to stanford)

8-3

asu----this depends on how they had been doing --if they are rollin and living up to hype then they roll us---if they aren't and their morale is down and we are 8-3---then we win

so that gives me a pretty fair and obtainable 8-4 and MAYBE 9-3

I say no worse than 7-5 and I predict 8-4

then next year pac-12 champs


^ i agree with this pretty much word for word, at least in terms of record/results. i think we surprise just about everyone this year, and the momentum on the field carries into the recruiting world and results in the #4 class in the country.

- i like that the old guard is back and expect a much heavier, nastier OL, and better routes & surer hands from our WR.
- Schwartz becomes a 2nd round pick as an All Pac12 performer (Khalil wins Lineman of the year), and MSG a 7th rounder, with Galas emerging as the next Alex Mack and leading what is once again one of the Pac12s best units. Gibson and Croswaite get meaningful minutes to show that our depth isn't lacking as much as everyone thought. Williams won't see much time, but by the end of the year he will have bulked up to 315, and along with Croswaite give us two promising OT for next year.
- i like maynards mobility to keep plays alive when they break down, as it is an aspect we have been missing.
- i like the depth we have at RB, although no one has established themselves, but i expect Anderson to win the starting position and posts a 1000 yard season, Isi to be a great backup with 500+ yards, and Bigelow to see 4-5 touches a game ala Best's freshman year, finishing with 5 TDs. Yarnway, or maybe even Lasco, is our bruiser to punch in short distance/goal line TDs, and CDJ continues to be the garbage time back with over an 8 YPC line.
- the defense will be a freakin wall. Kendricks and Holt should combine for over 160 tackles from the middle with Forbes showing promise as a backup, and 2 of Wilkerson/Whiteside/McCain/Gibson emerge as a scary pass rush option with similar production as Kendricks last year. my money is on Whiteside.
- the DL is stout once again, with Tosh using his rotation masterfully, including working in Moala, Barr, and even Scarlett. Coleman emerges as our next 1st round DL, and Guyton is 2nd team pac-12 with a breakout year. Kaufusi shows that Moala isn't the only young DT stud on our roster.
- the DBs show solid production, with Williams emerging as the best CB in the Pac12. Walls will hold the starting spot opposite Cattouse by the end of the year, and Cattouse molds himself into a 2nd-3rd round pick at safety.
- Anger wins the Ray Guy award, and Coleman scores 2 Tds as a return man, winning honorable mention Pac12 on ST.

those are MY predictions, like them or not. call me a baseless optimist if you want but that's how i think it unfolds.
Cal_Fan2
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jesterno2;540886 said:

^ i agree with this pretty much word for word, at least in terms of record/results. i think we surprise just about everyone this year, and the momentum on the field carries into the recruiting world and results in the #4 class in the country.

- i like that the old guard is back and expect a much heavier, nastier OL, and better routes & surer hands from our WR.
- Schwartz becomes a 2nd round pick as an All Pac12 performer (Khalil wins Lineman of the year), and MSG a 7th rounder, with Galas emerging as the next Alex Mack and leading what is once again one of the Pac12s best units. Gibson and Croswaite get meaningful minutes to show that our depth isn't lacking as much as everyone thought. Williams won't see much time, but by the end of the year he will have bulked up to 315, and along with Croswaite give us two promising OT for next year.
- i like maynards mobility to keep plays alive when they break down, as it is an aspect we have been missing.
- i like the depth we have at RB, although no one has established themselves, but i expect Anderson to win the starting position and posts a 1000 yard season, Isi to be a great backup with 500+ yards, and Bigelow to see 4-5 touches a game ala Best's freshman year, finishing with 5 TDs. Yarnway, or maybe even Lasco, is our bruiser to punch in short distance/goal line TDs, and CDJ continues to be the garbage time back with over an 8 YPC line.
- the defense will be a freakin wall. Kendricks and Holt should combine for over 160 tackles from the middle with Forbes showing promise as a backup, and 2 of Wilkerson/Whiteside/McCain/Gibson emerge as a scary pass rush option with similar production as Kendricks last year. my money is on Whiteside.
- the DL is stout once again, with Tosh using his rotation masterfully, including working in Moala, Barr, and even Scarlett. Coleman emerges as our next 1st round DL, and Guyton is 2nd team pac-12 with a breakout year. Kaufusi shows that Moala isn't the only young DT stud on our roster.
- the DBs show solid production, with Williams emerging as the best CB in the Pac12. Walls will hold the starting spot opposite Cattouse by the end of the year, and Cattouse molds himself into a 2nd-3rd round pick at safety.
- Anger wins the Ray Guy award, and Coleman scores 2 Tds as a return man, winning honorable mention Pac12 on ST.

those are MY predictions, like them or not. call me a baseless optimist if you want but that's how i think it unfolds.


I like the cut of your jib sir......I'm one of the few that agree with you about CJ Anderson contributing more then some think....also, losing Cameron Jordan won't stop us one bit and I have a feeling our DL will even be better with more depth now......
jdavisbofa
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9 - 3 minimum 10 - 2 or better most likely

best defense in Pac 12. Great depth, experience and ability in DL. Excellent linebackers with depth and strong secondary. Good defensive coaches

OL is a strength says Tedford. Michalczik is back and has returning starters and backups in great shape.
RB - Isi is good, CDB in good shape, Tedford says Bigelow is best ever Cal recruit and there is lots of depth.
WR -Jones, Allen, Calvin, Clay and Edmond all good with depth
TE - Miller, Ladner back and spring sensation Hagan ready to go.
QB - Moraga Bear, Greybear and myself along with many others attended all 4 spring practices and most of us thought the Bridgford was clearly the best passer. In my view Bridgford is the most accurate passer Cal has had since Rodgers left for the NFL. Our QB guru Tedford chose Maynard over Bridgford so Maynard must be really good since Tedford knows more about QBs than we do. We are in great shape with Bridgford as the backup.

Enough of this negative 6 - 6. Drink some Kool-aid. Cal will do it this year.
Blue&Gould
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Cal88;540877 said:

Sep 3 Fresno State W
Sep 10 Colorado * W
Sep 17 Presbyterian W
Sep 24 @Washington TOSSUP/W
Oct 1 BYE
Oct 6 @Oregon L
Oct 13 U$C TOSSUP/L
Oct 22 Utah TOSSUP/W
Oct 29 @UCLA W
Nov 5 WSU W
Nov 12 OSU TOSSUP
Nov 19 @Stanford TOSSUP/L
Nov 25 @ASU TOSSUP/W


There are 5 very probable wins and one near-certain loss. Tossups analysis:

@UW: this one is on the coaches, we have the tools to win it despite UW being on an upwards trend. we should win a close one. 65% win probability

USC: If we will lose big in Eugene the thursday before, like we did the last time we went there, there could be some big morale carryover into this game. USC will still be motivated at that point. Weaker home field advantage and stronger/more experienced QB means SC wins a close one on paper. 40% win probability

UU: the extra time off from the thursday game will help the team refocus, as well as progress at OL, QB and D manifests itself, team starts to gel. 65% win probability

OSU: they have had our number, but we have the momentum from 2-3 straight wins and team is getting better and more comfortable with its temporary digs. 60% win probability

@Furd: Cal is improved, D playing inspired, but Luck too much to overcome in 4th qrtr, Furd wins close game. 35% win probability

@ASU: if at that point the Devs are playing with the CCG in line after beating their rivals the week before, and we're demoralized by a close BG loss, they should win. If this game was played earlier or if ASU is out of the championship picture, we would probably beat an improved ASU team even on the road. 60%

Record, by decreasing order of likelihood:

Most likely:
8-4
7-5

less likely, but not all that shocking:
6-6
9-3
not very likely but still in the real of possibility:
5-7
shocking:
10-2
4-8

Finally, we should win our bowl game, OL and D will be pretty strong by then, the team will be stronger than its record/ranking going into postseason. A 9-4 record would be a very reasonable stretch goal and a good launching pin to a championship campaign goal for 2012.


I like your breakdown. Hmm...here's where I get to your same conclusion...

Most likely WINS-
Fresno State (although will be close I think)
Blue Hoes
Colorado
WSU
UCLA

TOSSUP (or very close to a 50/50)
Washington
Utah
OSU
ASU (I sense highly overrated...)

Most Likely LOSS (as much as I hate to admit...but the prob is closer to their side on all games)
Oregon
USC
Stanford

Given the nature of a TOSSUP- we win half. Maybe we pull out one of the three in the Loss column, maybe we wank it out in Boulder.

With that given, I think it's most likely we go 7-5.

I hope I am wrong and we roll to BSC glory, but with all in question...7-5. Pretty much what you said!
89Bear
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jesterno2;540886 said:

^ i agree with this pretty much word for word, at least in terms of record/results. i think we surprise just about everyone this year, and the momentum on the field carries into the recruiting world and results in the #4 class in the country.

- i like that the old guard is back and expect a much heavier, nastier OL, and better routes & surer hands from our WR.
- Schwartz becomes a 2nd round pick as an All Pac12 performer (Khalil wins Lineman of the year), and MSG a 7th rounder, with Galas emerging as the next Alex Mack and leading what is once again one of the Pac12s best units. Gibson and Croswaite get meaningful minutes to show that our depth isn't lacking as much as everyone thought. Williams won't see much time, but by the end of the year he will have bulked up to 315, and along with Croswaite give us two promising OT for next year.
- i like maynards mobility to keep plays alive when they break down, as it is an aspect we have been missing.
- i like the depth we have at RB, although no one has established themselves, but i expect Anderson to win the starting position and posts a 1000 yard season, Isi to be a great backup with 500+ yards, and Bigelow to see 4-5 touches a game ala Best's freshman year, finishing with 5 TDs. Yarnway, or maybe even Lasco, is our bruiser to punch in short distance/goal line TDs, and CDJ continues to be the garbage time back with over an 8 YPC line.
- the defense will be a freakin wall. Kendricks and Holt should combine for over 160 tackles from the middle with Forbes showing promise as a backup, and 2 of Wilkerson/Whiteside/McCain/Gibson emerge as a scary pass rush option with similar production as Kendricks last year. my money is on Whiteside.
- the DL is stout once again, with Tosh using his rotation masterfully, including working in Moala, Barr, and even Scarlett. Coleman emerges as our next 1st round DL, and Guyton is 2nd team pac-12 with a breakout year. Kaufusi shows that Moala isn't the only young DT stud on our roster.
- the DBs show solid production, with Williams emerging as the best CB in the Pac12. Walls will hold the starting spot opposite Cattouse by the end of the year, and Cattouse molds himself into a 2nd-3rd round pick at safety.
- Anger wins the Ray Guy award, and Coleman scores 2 Tds as a return man, winning honorable mention Pac12 on ST.

those are MY predictions, like them or not. call me a baseless optimist if you want but that's how i think it unfolds.



Love the breakdown!
upsetof86
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89Bear;540921 said:

Love the breakdown!


BCS Nat'l championship game where we....
YLS Bear
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If we were playing on neutral ground:

Sep 3 Fresno State W
Sep 10 Colorado * W
Sep 17 Presbyterian W
Sep 24 @Washington TOSSUP
Oct 1 BYE
Oct 6 @Oregon L
Oct 13 U$C L
Oct 22 Utah TOSSUP
Oct 29 @UCLA W
Nov 5 WSU W
Nov 12 OSU L
Nov 19 @Stanford L
Nov 25 @ASU TOSSUP

We get better as the season goes on, which allows the tossup with ASU, but we're still not good enough to beat OSU or Mr. Luck. Assuming the tossups are 50-50, 6.5-5.5 is the benchmark.

Likely outcomes: 6-6, which would be slightly disappointing, or 7-5, which would be slightly encouraging.

However, given our penchant for playing great at home and being awful on the road, the situation unfortunately becomes:

Sep 3 Fresno State W
Sep 10 Colorado * W
Sep 17 Presbyterian W
Sep 24 @Washington L
Oct 1 BYE
Oct 6 @Oregon L
Oct 13 U$C L
Oct 22 Utah W
Oct 29 @UCLA W
Nov 5 WSU W
Nov 12 OSU L
Nov 19 @Stanford L
Nov 25 @ASU L

(OSU has our number regardless of where we play.)

Likely outcome: 6-6

So, a winning record and I'm happy, 6-6 and I shrug my shoulders, a losing record and I'm disappointed.

Pretty hard to talk about the outcome of a bowl game, but since we're a young team that should improve over the course of the season, odds of winning are slightly better than a tossup.

Under this scenario, we unfortunately start 3-0 and end 0-3, even if we improve as a team. A bowl win would do a lot to ease that pain. I'm excited about the prospect of checking the actual results against my projections.
72CalBear
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is that we play every team, all four quarters, tough and snap to whistle. No blow-outs and no let-downs..I'll be happy and ready for 2012. All losses should be close and tough.
OzoneTheCat
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72CalBear;540981 said:

is that we play every team, all four quarters, tough and snap to whistle. No blow-outs and no let-downs..I'll be happy and ready for 2012. All losses should be close and tough.


I like this, but if I hear Tedford say we were <insert value here> points away from 12-0 I'm going to go completely postal.
pnaidu
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in order to go 9-3 we would have to only lose to the furd, $c and u of o presumably. It is possible but that would mean that we have to beat asu on the road(i don't see that happening). It is possible but not very likely.
CMHBear
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I always predict 12-0 and adjust accordingly as the season goes on.
Twams
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I dont understand why everyone has Utah as a toss up game, or that Utah is one of the powers in the south.

Utah is going to get destroyed IMO, going week after week playing against Pac 12 talent? Injuries happen, this is not the MWC...
YLS Bear
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Why don't you predict 0-12 before the season starts? You'll get happier and happier as the season goes on, instead of more and more depressed.
R90
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Twams;541044 said:

Utah is going to get destroyed IMO, going week after week playing against Pac 12 talent?


Utah doesn't have to play Stanford or Oregon, and 5 of their 9 pac-12 games are at home. ASU, UCLA, OSU and Washington will have to adjust to the altitude. Their schedule is about as favorable as they could hope for in their first Pac-12 season. @USC and @Cal could be their toughest conference games.

$C isn't post season eligible, right? ASU has to play at Oregon. Utah could be the favorite in the Pac-12 South.
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