http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm

Cal # 27

thats 4th in the Pac 12 behind Oregon Furd and SC

lets hope this is somewhat right

Bear_Territory;540766 said:

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http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm

Cal # 27

thats 4th in the Pac 12 behind Oregon Furd and SC

lets hope this is somewhat right

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Saragin's algorithms always seem to favor Ca for some reason....his rankings usually always have us higher then we achieve....but I"ll take it

I'm not sure about 27, but 4th in the pac 12 is not to far off in my mind.

FWIW, Fresno St is 70, Colorado is 72 and Presby is 229.

Using Sagarin's methodology, Cal should be favored between 11 and 14 points against FSU - depending on whether you consider the stick to be our home field.

If things stay this way, he would have us favored by 47 pts over Presby.

His models work much better once all the teams have played 3 games.

RJABear;540792 said:

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His models work much better once all the teams have played 3 games.

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More like 5 or 6 but your observation holds true every year

To be honest I think its impossible to predict how well CAL will do until we have some solid information on how well Maynard plays and who our #1 and #2 RBs are and how well they play

Cal_Fan2;540798 said:

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More like 5 or 6 but your observation holds true every year

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Hmmm...a predictive model based on actual stats and results that is often reliable....go figure.

Bear_Territory;540801 said:

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To be honest I think its impossible to predict how well CAL will do until we have some solid information on how well Maynard plays and who our #1 and #2 RBs are and how well they play

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..and how well our offensive line plays. They have to give Maynard time to set up and open holes for isi!

He sure has some unusual picks - Texas at 14, Oregon State 23, South Carolina 26, Cal 27, Pitt 28, Texas A&M 37, Washington 52.... But UCLA at 53 looks right. Wonder if Sagarin used the same statistical modeling as those geniuses who rated the subprime mortgage packages as AAA.
I hope he's right, but every prediction I have read has Cal nowhere near the top 25. Like some other posters, it is my recollection that he always has Cal rated higher than any other service.

Rather surprised to Ohio State (#3), and especially Texas (#14), ranked so high.

Bear_Territory;540766 said:

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http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm

Cal # 27

thats 4th in the Pac 12 behind Oregon Furd and SC

lets hope this is somewhat right

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He has Oregon #2, SC #10, Stanford #12, Utah #20 and Oregon State #23

That puts us at #6 in the Pac-12, right?

I would say his rankings are pretty much in order of how I would order the Pac-12 - with the exception of knowing how Utah is going to play in conference this year.

Basically you have Oregon, USC and Stanford as your top-tier, Utah, Oregon State and Cal as your 2nd tier.

Of course USC is ineligible for post-season play, but that is not what he is predicting.

I am hopeful that we end up on the top end of 'our tier' - so it wouldn't surprise me if we finished 3rd in the North (even if we are picked 5th right now).

I do believe if we played in the south, with USC ineligible, we could very well win it (I just don't buy into the ASU hype and think Utah has as good a chance as anyone else in the south - especially since they miss BOTH Oregon and Stanford).

4 weeks left!

Hail2Calif;540868 said:

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He has Oregon #2, SC #10, Stanford #12, Utah #20 and Oregon State #23

That puts us at #6 in the Pac-12, right?

I would say his rankings are pretty much in order of how I would order the Pac-12 - with the exception of knowing how Utah is going to play in conference this year.

Basically you have Oregon, USC and Stanford as your top-tier, Utah, Oregon State and Cal as your 2nd tier.

Of course USC is ineligible for post-season play, but that is not what he is predicting.

I am hopeful that we end up on the top end of 'our tier' - so it wouldn't surprise me if we finished 3rd in the North (even if we are picked 5th right now).

I do believe if we played in the south, with USC ineligible, we could very well win it (I just don't buy into the ASU hype and think Utah has as good a chance as anyone else in the south - especially since they miss BOTH Oregon and Stanford).

4 weeks left!

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I obviously can't read, yeah we are 6th not 4th