Looking at the recently revised Scout top 300 by position, 91 of the top 150 defensive prospects (top 25 at 6 positions) have made verbal committments. Twenty one of the top 25 Middle linebackers have verballed; while only 11 of the top 25 safeties have verballed. Safeties and defensive tackles are the only positions where less than half the top 25 have made a verbal committment.

On Offense it's even higher, at QB and TE 22 out of the top 25 prospects at each postion have already verballed. Running back is the lowest, only 14 of the top 24 RBs have verballed (56%). For OL, 19 OT have verballed while 16 OGs have done so. WRs have made 18 verbals. Overall for a similar top 150 prospects on offense, 111 have made the verbal commit, a remarkable 74% of the top 25 at 6 offensive postions (QB, RB, WR, TE, OT, OG). The overall score for the top 300 prospects, 202 have given verbals (67.3%).

Still a chance to recruit a top safety or DT, but if you need a LB, QB, TE, or OT you may have to look at Plan B or Plan C.

sp4149;543024 said:

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Looking at the recently revised Scout top 300 by position, 91 of the top 150 defensive prospects (top 25 at 6 positions) have made verbal committments. Twenty one of the top 25 Middle linebackers have verballed; while only 11 of the top 25 safeties have verballed. Safeties and defensive tackles are the only positions where less than half the top 25 have made a verbal committment.

On Offense it's even higher, at QB and TE 22 out of the top 25 prospects at each postion have already verballed. Running back is the lowest, only 14 of the top 24 RBs have verballed (56%). For OL, 19 OT have verballed while 16 OGs have done so. WRs have made 18 verbals. Overall for a similar top 150 prospects on offense, 111 have made the verbal commit, a remarkable 74% of the top 25 at 6 offensive postions (QB, RB, WR, TE, OT, OG). The overall score for the top 300 prospects, 202 have given verbals (67.3%).

Still a chance to recruit a top safety or DT, but if you need a LB, QB, TE, or OT you may have to look at Plan B or Plan C.

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how dare you call out the obvious. Commence attack by BI rally com

Tedford and co. are swinging for the fences. Should we be bunting?

we're fine

I'm sure we'll be fine overall but the possibility exist that we'll be left with our hands in our pants on signing day.

Actually that seems highly likely given the small number of offers we have out. We'll probably reach for a few Plan C recruits to fill out our class, but on the whole the class should be pretty good.

According to the Bear Insider recruit page we have 55 offers, 15 of which are to players that have verbally accepted an offer. I wouldn't call the remaining 40 offers "small", although it is definitely a lot less than some schools that take the shotgun approach...

I am sure there plenty of good players outside the Scout top 300 players that aren't "Plan B" or "Plan C" guys; in fact, I'd imagine that a good percentage of our 40 outstanding offers are outside the Scout 300. (No, I haven't checked).

You forgot about our silents.

They're Bears. They haven't announced yet or they just don't know it yet.

:gobears:

Okay, I checked. Here are our Scout 300 offers:

5*
Shaq Thompson (S), Stefon Diggs (WR), Eddie Goldman (DT), Kyle Murphy (OT), Darius Hamilton (DE), Ellis McCarthy (DT), Josh Garnett (OT), Zach Banner (OT), Bryce Treggs (WR)

4*
Jordan Simmons (OG), Ifeadi Odenigbo (OLB), Aziz Shittu (DT), Ronnie Stanley (OT), Jordan Payton (WR), D.J. Foster (RB), Ishmael Adams (CB), Byron Marshall (RB), Kevon Seymour (CB), Michael Barton (OLB), Zach Kline (QB), Keivarae Russell (RB), DeForest Buckner (DE), Derrick Woods (S), Cedric Dozier (CB), Luke Kaumatule (DE), Seth Jacobs (S)

So, that's a lot, right? Well, it's 23 of our 40 outstanding (not committed either to us or someone else) offers, which is a lot. But that means 17 of our remaining offers are for players outside the Scout 300, which according to the Op would be "Plan B" or "Plan C".

(I am sure the Scout and Bear Insider databases might not line up completely but this should be pretty close. I didn't include offers to guys that are committed somewhere else, because that's harder to get at in the overall listings).

who cares if 67% of the top 300 by Scout have committed? how many of OUR targets have committed? that's the only stat that matters. 0% of the 40 (Scout's top 300) kids elpbear just listed have committed (not including Cal commits)--why would we need to freak out?

sp4149;543024 said:

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Still a chance to recruit a top safety or DT, but if you need a LB, QB, TE, or OT you may have to look at Plan B or Plan C.

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we don't need any more LB, we have barton and nickerson. we don't need another QB. you can say we missed out on a TE, but there's still several great OL out there uncommitted. no need for Plan B or C.

but Cal's staff has brought home the bacon big time the last two years and I am throwing my lot with the coaches. In addition, we have facilities coming on line - which will add to the attraction of being a Bear - IMO.............

beeasyed;543045 said:

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who cares if 67% of the top 300 by Scout have committed? how many of OUR targets have committed? that's the only stat that matters. 0% of the 40 (Scout's top 300) kids elpbear just listed have committed (not including Cal commits)--why would we need to freak out?

we don't need any more LB, we have barton and nickerson. we don't need another QB. you can say we missed out on a TE, but there's still several great OL out there uncommitted. no need for Plan B or C.

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^this

and we will take more LBs in this class we aren't stopping at just Hardy Jr. and Barton. you could count some of the DE recruits we're targeting as DE/LB hybrids that will play OLB in our scheme (Odenigbo), and at the same time count some of the DTs we are going after as DEs, ala Todd Barr.

i only counted 5 guys off of that list the elpbear posted that we aren't in the top 3-5 for and that i don't expect us to have a legitimate shot at before all is said and done. and yes, there are several silent commits right now, and a few others who aren't necessarily silent but who are simply going through the process before committing, but will be bears soon.

Our offered, that are in Scout's top 300 for purpose of discussion. bolded are committed.

out of the 52 on this list, 20 are committed, 17 are committed to somewhere other than Cal. so not including Cal commits (49 offered kids) 65% of the group is still uncommitted.

[COLOR="Blue"]Kline[/COLOR]

Humphries
Peat
Kalis
Garnett
Murphy
Banner
Magnuson
Simmons
Tuerk
Thurston
Stanley
Seumalo

CopeFitzpatrick
Kourtzidis

Foster

Diggs
Caleb
Johnson
Woods
Payton
Bowles
[COLOR="blue"]Treggs[/COLOR]
Neal
Dozier
Carroo

Marshall
Marshall
Russell

Goldman
Hamilton
McCarthy
Shittu
Spence
Bullard
Armstead
Schutt
Hinds
Kaumatule

Odenigbo
Starr
[COLOR="blue"]Barton[/COLOR]
Porter
Jacobs

Thompson
McNeil

Wright
Darby
Shepard
Seymour
Carter
Adams

beeasyed;543059 said:

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Our offered, that are in Scout's top 300 for purpose of discussion. bolded are committed.

out of the 52 on this list, 20 are committed, 17 are committed to somewhere other than Cal. so not including Cal commits (49 offered kids) 65% of the group is still uncommitted.

[COLOR="Blue"]Kline[/COLOR]

Humphries
Peat
Kalis
Garnett
Murphy
Banner
Magnuson
Simmons
Tuerk
Thurston
Stanley
Seumalo

CopeFitzpatrick
Kourtzidis

Foster

Diggs
Caleb
Johnson
Woods
Payton
Bowles
[COLOR="blue"]Treggs[/COLOR]
Neal
Dozier
Carroo

Marshall
Marshall
Russell

Goldman
Hamilton
McCarthy
Shittu
Spence
Bullard
Armstead
Schutt
Hinds
Kaumatule

Odenigbo
Starr
[COLOR="blue"]Barton[/COLOR]
Porter
Jacobs

Thompson
McNeil

Wright
Darby
Shepard
Seymour
Carter
Adams

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65% may seem like a lot but if you factor in that we are getting 3 of every 20 commitments, we are only expecting 5 more commitments for the rest of the 32 commitments (not including decommits). Last year we have 9 scout 300 commits so compared to last year we are doing similar (of course based on a number of assumptions)

tommie317;543025 said:

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how dare you call out the obvious. Commence attack by BI rally com

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The "obvious" being....? A lot of recruits have committed?

And this has bearing on our own current recruiting... how??

And this somehow contradicts MoragaBear's assessment of our recruiting, because...?

50% of the globe is experiencing winter now. Better put on those snow chains.

BeachyBear;543067 said:

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The "obvious" being....? A lot of recruits have committed?

And this has bearing on our own current recruiting... how??

And this somehow contradicts MoragaBear's assessment of our recruiting, because...?

50% of the globe is experiencing winter now. Better put on those snow chains.

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yes sir BI rally com sir

BeachyBear;543067 said:

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The "obvious" being....? A lot of recruits have committed?

And this has bearing on our own current recruiting... how??

And this somehow contradicts MoragaBear's assessment of our recruiting, because...?

50% of the globe is experiencing winter now. Better put on those snow chains.

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Beachy I yield to your almighty inquisitions.

a few other notes:

- you guys forgot to list Brian Nance, a top 10-ish OLB from TX on that list. Scout doesn't list him as having interest in Cal, but he has an offer and we are in the mix, although I havent heard anything new on him in months. He had ACL surgery and has been out but will be back in time for his season. He probably won't be announcing until the Army game. We might be a longshot, but if he visits who knows what can happen.
http://bearinsider.com/football/recruiting/recruit-detail.php?recruit_id=535


-not ALL of the guys in that Scout300 who are listed as committed are completely solid and out of the question. looking at the names, i could tell you a couple that we might not be out of the picture with, just because they are committed elsewhere.

- considering that 67% of the top recruits have committed, and many other schools have classes of 20+ spots taken already, while we only have 4 officially taken, do you really think that we won't get the close to 15-20 guys we really want to get from that list with spots at other places running pretty hard to come by? many other programs such as texas, ohio st, oklahoma and alabama do much of their damage earlier in the season assembling their classes, and add some other big pieces toward the end. if you have followed our classes the past few years, we have done pretty much the opposite, doing most of our damage later in the season and closer to signing day.

- using ONLY the Scout300, you are missing out on some very good prospects who are much higher rated by other services. there are only 52 on that list, but i can tell you there are a good number more who we would be happy landing, and while they may not be rated super high by Scout, they would contribute to our rankings with other services. the number is probably closer to 60 than 50 in terms of cream of the crop prospects.

MoragaBear;543077 said:

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The BI rally com will expect you to write on the blackboard, "I'm a negative yahoo that thinks anyone that's more optimistic (with good reason) than me is an idiot and I was dead wrong" when Cal finishes with the great recruiting class they'll inevitably have.

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Thanks Chairman. lol

I've actually toned down my rhetoric recently as there are other things in the world to be more negative about than recruiting.

I'm sure this post will be referenced after LOI day.

Precisely, dinan... Plus, Tedford 'n Company are starting well in the backyard which hasn't happened in many years and was Tedford's main goal in recruiting when he took the job. If this team simply returns to a bowl game, this year will be another great year in recruiting.

Weren't we just complaining a few years ago we never went for the top prospects? Now we are, and it seems some of us are scared to succeed (or fail trying). To build a rose bowl team, we need the best players and we shouldn't expect anything less.

With the new facilities, upgraded staff, Tosh! coupled with everything else Cal always offered, we have a real chance to be special for the rest of the 201x's and beyond

:tedford

You mean there are other pessimist on the board? Could there be enough to start a Cal Football Anonymous group?

tommie317;543062 said:

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65% may seem like a lot but if you factor in that we are getting 3 of every 20 commitments, we are only expecting 5 more commitments for the rest of the 32 commitments (not including decommits). Last year we have 9 scout 300 commits so compared to last year we are doing similar (of course based on a number of assumptions)

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Kline
Garnett
Banner
Simmons
Treggs
Dozier
Marshall
Russell
Shittu
Kaumatule
Odenigbo
Barton
Thompson
Adams

out of that list, i think i've listed a moderate projection (even left out Payton just to be safe). now wouldn't this already be considered a GREAT get? 14 4-5* players right there. doesn't really seem to hurt us getting ~4 for every 20 left

btw jesterno, i left out Nance b/c a while back, MB had said that he wasn't actually offered. just re-checked the BI database, and it still says we haven't offered. and i do agree that scout leaves out several other solid prospects--but then every site leaves out a couple

scout left out: kaiwan lewis, fanaika, tagaloa, mickens

all that matters is that the guys that we are after are not committed anywhere else. I have a feeling that we have at least 3 silents right now. I would rather have a coaching staff that goes after the top guys than a staff like asu who is going after lesser players.

drunkoski;543079 said:

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we seen this thread 3 years straight.

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Is to discuss early commits, I suspect I may have posted on this more than 3 years ago when Coach M was here previously. He told me his recruiting strategy was to wait until after the HS senior season to target recruits. Back several years ago only Texas and UCLA were pushing early recruiting; but now many top schools are engaged. Going back three years we see that at this point in time: we had 3 verbals for the 2009 class; we had 8 verbals for the 2010 class; we had 7 verbals for the 2011 class and this year we have 4 verbals currently. Without a lot of early commits, a lot more recruiting must be done during the season, especially if most of the prospects are planning on enrolling somewhere else.

This year the talk has been on recruiting OL prospects, especially tackles. Scout has listed 11 OT as five stars compared to ten for the previus two years combined. Of the top 36 OTs on Scout (4 or 5 star), 26 have already verballed. Of the ten left only 3 are shown with Cal offers and they have offers from other big time football schools as well. It's probably as likely we get a decommit from another school as it is we get one of this final three. We could finish second for all three, recruit a couple of local 3 star tackles and still be in good shape. I found it of interest to see how many OTs had committed when this was reputed to be one of the best and deepest classes of OL prospects in many years. I was expecting to see much longer recruiting battles resulting in fewer early commits.

If we had more committed verbal recruits, we just get to worry about decommits........

sp4149;543160 said:

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...found it of interest to see how many OTs had committed when this was reputed to be one of the best and deepest classes of OL prospects in many years. I was expecting to see much longer recruiting battles resulting in fewer early commits.

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garnett, banner, simmons, murphy, tagaloa, fanaika, peat, cochran, and stanley, in addition to all the other committed ones. it's a very deep year indeed...

Relax fellas. #1 scout is a joke #2 most of the committed kids are from the south. Let us get a couple official visits in and the ball will start rolling.

Thank you.

Simple logic suggests we have to cast our net wider for Olineman.

LafayetteBear;543291 said:

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Really?

Peat has shown zero interest in Cal.

Stanley has shown very little interest in Cal. Seems to be much more interested in SC.

Banner has us in his final ten, and perhaps we will be in his final five. We already KNOW that SC is in his final five.

Murphy has thus far said a lot of flowery things about SC as well.

(Anyone notice a pattern here? I know SC can only take so many guys, but still...)

Cochran is, according to Coach Sam Parker (his position coach at Buhach Colony HS), Alabama's if they want him. We'll have to wait and see if the Tide offers him, I guess.

MB says Villanueva (who you didn't include in your list) has grades problems, so we can likely cross him off our list as well.

Our best chances appear to be with Garnett, Simmons and Tagaloa. It would be great if we got all three of these guys. But it is a tad optimistic to think that we will get all three, and even if we did, do we not need more offensive lineman than those three?

Yeah, we DID have a great recruiting class last year. But we had a total of one offensive lineman (Rigsbee) in that class, as I recall. Everyone knew that we needed to do a lot better with respect to offensive linemen this year. MB said as much. JT can't allow a repeat of last year with respect to offensive linemen. I sure hope he is talking, and seriously, to some Plan B offensive linemen.

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I was not aware recruiting stopped after kids gave non-binding, consequence free commitments.

You might have a point had we not gotten top classes since ground was broken on the SAHPC, and not gotten a number of guys away from other schools after being committed in the last couple years (basically, since Tosh has gotten rolling).

Real exciting argument though.

uhhh, i was just pointing out the OL 2012 class is, in fact, quite deep, with lots of talent, which means, besides just the 4-5* players, there's a handful of solid 3*'s as well. that said, you can interpret how you want about our chances with the cream of the crop. there are of course other solid OL prospects that i did not name. the purpose was to only show that there many kids out there, and to not stress out about the current recruiting situation

also, why should we immediately "cast a wider net"? do you mean we should start offering academically at-risk kids like Villanueva? or other lower-ranked projects and no-namers like Oliver, Dean, and Dickman? those types are the ones that staff want to monitor and assess throughout the next season. if you offer those kids now, chances are, they'll jump on the offer immediately, and we'll have 3-4 OL low-ranked commits, sure. and what will you do once you have higher-ranked elite OL wanting to commit as well? yank the offer of some lower-ranked kids? we don't do that.

the only two players i would perhaps extend an offer to at the moment would be Williams, and maybe Westbrook, depending he if gets into better shape (even though he's already dropped 20+ lbs of bad weight)

i have no doubt the staff is aware of everything we discussed, and if they feel like they're slippin w/ their top targets, they will move onto contingencies and Option B's. until then, just patiently wait for the big nasties to consider their futures

Here are our current OL offers, as listed in the BearInsider DB:

Arik Armstead (OL, 4/5*, U$C), Zach Banner (OL, 4/5*), Matt Cochran (OL, 3*), Brandon Fanaika (OL, 3/4*), Josh Garnett (OL, 4/5*), Kyle Kalis (OL, 4/5*), Erik Magnuson (OL, 4*, Michigan), Kyle Murphy (OL, 4/5*), Joey O'Connor (OL, 3/4*, Penn State), Andrus Peat (OL, 4/5*), Isaac Seumalo (OL, 4*, Oregon State), Jordan Simmons (OL, 4/5*), Freddie Tagaloa (OL, 4*), Paul Thurston (OL, 4*, Nebraska)

That's 14 offers... out of 55 listed, or fully 25% of our outstanding offers... for one position! Assuming the five that are committed elsewhere are solid or not coming to Cal (not necessarily the case), that's still 9 outstanding offers, including some guys that are so-called "Plan B" guys (not mentioned previously as top-tier recruits).

This took me about five minutes of work including writing this post. Rather than worrying it can be really helpful to just look at what we know and realize that the staff is all-in on OL recruiting for the 2011 class (as we have been told numerous times by MoragaBear it is the #1 priority position) and we are in fact in a good position to pull in a very strong OL class.

elpbear;543344 said:

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Here are our current OL offers, as listed in the BearInsider DB:

Arik Armstead (OL, 4/5*, U$C), Zach Banner (OL, 4/5*), Matt Cochran (OL, 3*), Brandon Fanaika (OL, 3/4*), Josh Garnett (OL, 4/5*), Kyle Kalis (OL, 4/5*), Erik Magnuson (OL, 4*, Michigan), Kyle Murphy (OL, 4/5*)
Joey O'Connor (OL, 3/4*, Penn State), Andrus Peat (OL, 4/5*)
Isaac Seumalo (OL, 4*, Oregon State), Jordan Simmons (OL, 4/5*)
Freddie Tagaloa (OL, 4*), Paul Thurston (OL, 4*, Nebraska)

That's 14 offers... out of 55 listed, or fully 25% of our outstanding offers... for one position! Assuming the five that are committed elsewhere are solid or not coming to Cal (not necessarily the case), that's still 9 outstanding offers, including some guys that are so-called "Plan B" guys (not mentioned previously as top-tier recruits).

This took me about five minutes of work including writing this post. Rather than worrying it can be really helpful to just look at what we know and realize that the staff is all-in on OL recruiting for the 2011 class (as we have been told numerous times by MoragaBear it is the #1 priority position) and we are in fact in a good position to pull in a very strong OL class.

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A typical football offense has 5 OL positions

tommie317;543345 said:

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A typical football offense has 5 OL positions

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Are you sure you're not a fUCLA fan who wandered onto the wrong forum?

Oh, right, fUCLA fans aren't that dumb. How silly of me.

elpbear;543349 said:

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Are you sure you're not a fUCLA fan who wandered onto the wrong forum?

Oh, right, fUCLA fans aren't that dumb. How silly of me.

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Look at the logic in your post again and tell me you don't need some remedial math classes or maybe you can work for s&p