Many have predicted a losing season this year--or at best 6-6. My question is what record would satisfy you in terms of admitting there is progress or that JT is doing a good job? I know we all shouldn't be satisfied w/ anything less than a RB or an NC, but in terms of THIS year, what record would you accept as not a failure? (i.e., if you predict 4-8 or 3-9, would 7-5 be "good" in your mind?)

UrsaMajor;553839 said:

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Many have predicted a losing season this year--or at best 6-6. My question is what record would satisfy you in terms of admitting there is progress or that JT is doing a good job? I know we all shouldn't be satisfied w/ anything less than a RB or an NC, but in terms of THIS year, what record would you accept as not a failure? (i.e., if you predict 4-8 or 3-9, would 7-5 be "good" in your mind?)

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What would it take to change you from a Nega-Bear to a Mega-Bear (i.e Big Time JT backer).

RB game; RB win; BCS bowl game; Super Bowl Championship; World Series Championship; Stanley Cup?

Sure, I'm thinking "Rose Bowl!" right now: We're undefeated!

A realistic goal for this season is to exceed the pundits' expectations for us (the bar has been set low), so that we can keep the recruits rolling in and start making "runs for the roses" again when we get back to Memorial Stadium.

So I'd say -- this year -- having a winning record and NOT finishing at or near the bottom of the conference would be good... and plenty realistic.

UrsaMajor;553839 said:

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Many have predicted a losing season this year--or at best 6-6. My question is what record would satisfy you in terms of admitting there is progress or that JT is doing a good job? I know we all shouldn't be satisfied w/ anything less than a RB or an NC, but in terms of THIS year, what record would you accept as not a failure? (i.e., if you predict 4-8 or 3-9, would 7-5 be "good" in your mind?)

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Four things I hope Sandy tracks closely:

1.) Overall record - 7+ wins at a minimum
2.) P10 record - 5+
3.) Did the team improve as the season progressed?
4.) Did we show that we solved the "toughness" issue? Avoided blow out losses, win a couple of games on the road, etc

#4 is the central issue here. It doesn't matter if we play on Mars vs. the new CMS or whether we have scrubs or 5 stars, if JT cannot field a tough minded team AGAIN this year, we need to make a change. More important than the coaching changes, new QB, or anything else - Does this team believe in itself and its coaches? Is it resilient enough to overcome adversity? Does it show a competitive spirit regardless of the score?

don't care about the record, care about the team being coached well, put in the best position to win at all times, playcalling, etc. If they play their hearts out on the field and have coaching that supports them and allows them to play to their potential then the record will take care of itself.

re:negabears - any negabear will tell you that they will be the happiest people on earth when the team is playing up to its potential and leaving 100% on the field, coached well, etc. negabears are multi dimensional and can turn into sunshine pumpers in the blink of an eye. the pumpers? one dimenesional, always happy about the team no matter what.

i'm no nega-bear, but i'll be content with 7 wins and happy with 8.

drunkoski;553854 said:

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7-5, considering the more difficult schedule, would be a good sign of progress (particurally followed by a bowl win).

8-4 with a bowl win would renew my faith that JT can turn things around with a tentative look to 2012 for the real determination.

any sort of 10 win (9-3 with bowl win or 10-2) season would get me on the bandwaggon.

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What if the loses are blowout?

I would question why we would "accept" or even "predict" a losing season this year because we had one last year. That would to me "accept" that last year was not an aberration, that the program is moving backwards and that our coaching and talent are sub par vis a vis the rest of the conference. I don't expect a losing season and think another losing season would be a disaster..you can see the effect last year's has had on season tickets and fan interest in general. Seven wins is a minimum for me but I wouldn't call that progress. Tedford is being paid to be in the top echelon of the conference not the middle. We should win 8 games.

drunkoski;553854 said:

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7-5, considering the more difficult schedule, would be a good sign of progress (particurally followed by a bowl win).

8-4 with a bowl win would renew my faith that JT can turn things around with a tentative look to 2012 for the real determination.

any sort of 10 win (9-3 with bowl win or 10-2) season would get me on the bandwaggon.

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Though I do not consider myself a "negabear" and am often on the other side of the debate against DO, I actually agree with this.

You express my thoughts exactly, GrizzledBear....Welcome to the Board. Cal could lose all their games if I saw the team and coaches giving it their all....Cal could go 9 and 3 this season, but if Tedford replaces the OC once again with several other assistant coaches, then Cal could be worse off.....but yes I want to see the team and coaching staff succeed......Go Bears!.......

drunkoski;553889 said:

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7-5 with all blowout losses would not feel very good no. despite tedford's 6 points away from 8-4 logic, i doubt we'd win every close game and then get blown out in 5 others.

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Blowouts beat the bleep out of you.

There's nothing like being psyched for a game all week, and then having be over in 20 minutes -- that's the thing with blowouts, you can always tell where we're headed right away.

GrizzledBear;553875 said:

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don't care about the record, care about the team being coached well, put in the best position to win at all times, playcalling, etc. If they play their hearts out on the field and have coaching that supports them and allows them to play to their potential then the record will take care of itself.

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This. I don't want to see blowout losses where we've clearly just given up. I'm not expecting great things this season, but I want to see us play with heart.

FingeroftheBear;553902 said:

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The "bummer Bears", those that are habitually down on Cal to need to take a chill pill and smoke two joints.

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Medicinal of course. Far be it from anyone on this board to advocate anything illegal.

My conditions for happiness with the direction of the team and renewed faith that JT has a handle on it (in order of importance):

1. Show up every week and play with confidence and swagger
2. Passing game is at least average BCS conference level
3. .500 or better in conference

These seem like reasonable expectations to me, but perhaps only in a vacuum. If 1 and 2 happen, I think 3 happens. The 3 OOC games are gimmes, on paper, at least. Add all that up and you get 8-4 before the bowl. That may seem high to some but 1 and 2 aren't too much to ask in any season irrespective of home stadium concerns, difficult home/road opponent split, etc. While I tend slightly to moderately towards NegaBear, I actually think we will see progress in these areas for some reason.

JT will obviously get to coach next year and probably the year after, too. But, at 6-6 or worse this year I don't think he should.

Win the games we should win. Be competitive in all games. Good play calling. QB development, O line progress, and a made crucial FG or two.

GrizzledBear;553875 said:

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don't care about the record, care about the team being coached well, put in the best position to win at all times, playcalling, etc. If they play their hearts out on the field and have coaching that supports them and allows them to play to their potential then the record will take care of itself.

re:negabears - any negabear will tell you that they will be the happiest people on earth when the team is playing up to its potential and leaving 100% on the field, coached well, etc. negabears are multi dimensional and can turn into sunshine pumpers in the blink of an eye. the pumpers? one dimenesional, always happy about the team no matter what.

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Agree 100%.

If we go for the win and fall short (think 2004 against USC), you cannot ask for more, I am happy with the team and with the coaches.

If we do not have a good game plan for the opponent, do not make good adjustments during the game and fall short (2004 Holiday Bowl), I am unhappy with the coaches. If we fall behind and make no effort to try to win, but look like we are instead trying to "minimize the loss," I am unhappy with the coaches.

We know this team has limitations (on offense--defense looks pretty solid). It also has strengths. I am looking for Tedford to put in a game plan that maximizes our strengths and minimizes our weaknesses. If that happens, but the players still fall short against a superior opponent, despite giving it their best, I am satisfied.

GB54;553888 said:

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I would question why we would "accept" or even "predict" a losing season this year because we had one last year. That would to me "accept" that last year was not an aberration, that the program is moving backwards and that our coaching and talent are sub par vis a vis the rest of the conference. I don't expect a losing season and think another losing season would be a disaster..you can see the effect last year's has had on season tickets and fan interest in general. Seven wins is a minimum for me but I wouldn't call that progress. Tedford is being paid to be in the top echelon of the conference not the middle. We should win 8 games.

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I agree 100% with this. We have 1 losing year and now we expect to suck??? F that. I am not buying the 6 points from 8-4 crap, but give me Levy and we beat Washington.

This team is going to surprise A LOT of people if maynard is even Longshore-esque.

oskiwanabe;553971 said:

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Win the games we should win. Be competitive in all games. Good play calling. QB development, O line progress, and a made crucial FG or two.

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All except the last one, I just can't bring myself to be upset with amateur student athletes for not being pros. The only professionals at Cal are the coaches. A missed FG doesn't really upset me unless the coach is "playing for the FG"--then yes, we better hit it.

socalBear23;553994 said:

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I agree 100% with this. We have 1 losing year and now we expect to suck??? F that. I am not buying the 6 points from 8-4 crap, but give me Levy and we beat Washington.

This team is going to surprise A LOT of people if maynard is even Longshore-esque.

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So throws for 3000 yards, 24 TDs, and honorable mention all conference?

UrsaMajor;553839 said:

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Many have predicted a losing season this year--or at best 6-6. My question is what record would satisfy you in terms of admitting there is progress or that JT is doing a good job? I know we all shouldn't be satisfied w/ anything less than a RB or an NC, but in terms of THIS year, what record would you accept as not a failure? (i.e., if you predict 4-8 or 3-9, would 7-5 be "good" in your mind?)

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As a realistic-bear:

FIRST, Tedford is not getting fired for a long time. Second, Tedford has burned a lot of goodwill not just with losing, but how he has lost. Knowing that:

1. Tedford MUST show he can keep the team in the game when it matters (not a few points when the other guys have their cheerleaders in).
2. Tedford MUST with the games he is supossed to.
3. Tedford MUST start developing key players better (ie QB).


To me it is not a one season thing. This season I would be fine with a 5 win season (if he does not inexplicably lose to some garbage team, and does not get blown up). GROWTH is what matters: Do we have a better team in November than we did in September? Even if they lose, are they a better team with more refined players, or are the same or worse?



In 2012 I expect no less than 9 wins, regardless of who is playing. Anything less will be below what is acceptable. By 2014 we should have at least one 10 win season. By 2015 I EXPECT that Tedford will have WON a Pac10 championship game, or I would show him the door.



The excuse has always been facilities; that is when players he recruited to play in the new stadium will be looking at the NFL.

GrizzledBear;553875 said:

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don't care about the record, care about the team being coached well, put in the best position to win at all times, playcalling, etc. If they play their hearts out on the field and have coaching that supports them and allows them to play to their potential then the record will take care of itself.

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I too am with GrizzledBear. My hope is that basic competence is achieved. There is a question mark at every position on offense except receiver and in the kicking game, so there won't be a lot of wins. But recruiting is going so well that in a couple years things will be good again if the basics improve. I remember in the Snyder era the team got a little bit better every year. I hope they are a little better this year.

Sluggo

okaydo;553914 said:

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Blowouts beat the bleep out of you.

There's nothing like being psyched for a game all week, and then having be over in 20 minutes -- that's the thing with blowouts, you can always tell where we're headed right away.

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The number of times Tedford has stepped on IED's is why MOST fans that are unhappy with him are unhappy, not the actual L on the record.

His choices in coaching have produced a few great games, and a host of inexplicable games where we look as poor as the worst teams in the country.



Tedford could lose 8 games this year and be a hero if he manages to not make the team look horrendously unprepared. THAT would be a HUGE step in the right direction.

not so much record with me. i'd be content with 5-7 if in those 12 games we showed up and from the first whistle to the final snap unlike in years past.

LafayetteBear;553961 said:

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Never at dusk...

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But late mid morning would be OK. (We're dating ourselves.)

A perfect season wouldn't hurt. But aside from the record, if the team can do the following I will be happy . . .

[U]In General[/U]
Inspire me. Surprise me. Close games. Don't get blown out, ever. Don't give up. Make big plays. Get me excited and hopeful for games against tough opponents.

[U]On Defense[/U]
Sack the quarterback. Give me a great read and a pick-6. Get Cattouse amped to lay the hammer when they come across the middle. Make big stops on third downs.

[U]On Offense[/U]
The OL steps up in a big way, protecting Maynard and allowing Isi to hit great holes and break the second level tackle. Maynard lives up to the hype as a QB with an "escape" dimension and he makes good decisions, meaning we don't see the Mansion-style check-down, indecision, then sack-type plays that made me want to throw my remote through the TV. Our receivers make tough catches that get me really excited for our passing game.

[U]On Special Teams[/U]
Get me excited about the future of the program. And our kickoffs reach the 1-yard line.

I'm very intruiged by this team, they seem quite the enigma. They could go in any number of directions. I'm not sure if this is due to the annual "god d*mn i'ts time for college football!" seasonal rite of passage or the possibilities of what Maynard can bring to the table, some of the old coaching staff brought back, etc -- but I will admit to being pretty pumped up on sunshine at the moment and will be excited to see the clock turn to 4p on Saturday.

Since my only real expectation this year is to be competitive. That is, to demonstrate that we can actually fight our way back from a deficit, finish out a game, and/or win the games we should.

Looking at the schedule, here is my take:

Fresno State (win - close game)
@ Colorado (win - also a close game)
Presbyterian (WIN)
@ Washington (loss - road game)
@ Oregon (loss - road game)
USC (loss)
Utah (win - I'm iffy on this one but I'll give the benefit of the doubt.)
@ UCLA (win - I'm iffy on this one too)
Washington State (win - I think)
Oregon State (loss - they have our number)
@ Stanford (loss)
@ Arizona State (win)

What is that, 7-5? A win or loss to Stanford really depends on how we do against OSU. We win, we likely beat Stanford and run the table. We lose and lose big, we probably don't win another. I would be content with 6-6 or 7-5. 8-4 would be great; 9-3 probably gets us into the Pac-12 championship; 10-2 probably the Rose Bowl or major bowl.

Anything less than 5 wins and I think its near disaster; anything less than 4 wins and Tedford should resign.

philly1121;554036 said:

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What is that, 7-5? A win or loss to Stanford really depends on how we do against OSU. We win, we likely beat Stanford and run the table. We lose and lose big, we probably don't win another. I would be content with 6-6 or 7-5. 8-4 would be great; 9-3 probably gets us into the Pac-12 championship; 10-2 probably the Rose Bowl or major bowl.

Anything less than 5 wins and I think its near disaster; anything less than 4 wins and Tedford should resign.

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I doubt it.

I would rather not peg a certain number of wins because as others have pointed out, a 7-6 season could look pretty bad or it might show promise. So my criterion for a successful season is to show promise for future success.

I will feel good if our O-line is gashing conference opponents in the run game by the end of the season, the way we operated in say 2004 or 2006. That just makes everything else so much easier on offense. I personally believe that if our line gets back to performing the way it did under Coach M's first tour of duty, it won't matter who is lined up behind them. We probably have 8 backs talented enough to run through the holes JJ Arrington used to run through. Education and facilities and family atmosphere are all great, but if you want Byron Marshall's eyes to pop out of his head, start parting the red sea the way we used to for JJ. Nothing gets a RB more pumped than seeing a big hole open up.

I will feel good if one of our quarterbacks is showing real promise by mid-season. Imagine if Maynard starts looking Michaelvickian or if Bridgford starts looking Aaronrodgersesque? We're going to be really pumped for our next opponent, and for 2012. Sure, Riley's performance in the armed forces bowl that one year had us all excited and it turned out to be somewhat of an illusion but a little (or a lot) of reason to hope for great QB play sure beats the abject dejection we've been feeling recently about the most important position on the field.

I will feel good if our defense starts living up to its VAST potential by mid-season.

One word for special teams: just don't F it up for everyone else. OK that was like 8 words, but it was a single sentiment. I will feel good about ST if we are playing everyone to a draw in that phase of the game.

Overall, I will feel good if we do enough to get some of our high profile recruits, especially the OL, to think "this is a program on the rise, I better jump on board before it is too late." This last one is critical. We need uninterrupted transfusions of the kind of new blood Tosh & Co. have brought to Berkeley recently in order to get to and stay at the top of the P12. A couple of down recruiting years, especially on the OL, can easily cause the arc of our program to take a turn for the worst.

drunkoski;554024 said:

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i don't quite get this. the record is what matters. outside of cal fans how many people remember if the losses were by 4 or 40? it hurts the ego most definetely.

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Well you said it yourself in this very thread that the blowouts are major cause for concern because it brings to light so many of Tedford's flaws particularly motivation. The losses last year vs Arizona and Oregon did WAY MORE for me than our win vs Washington State or our win vs Washington would have had UW not punched it in.

Letdown games happen but they should be limited to 1-2 a season at most. Not half our schedule like last year.

MisterNoodle;554048 said:

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I would rather not peg a certain number of wins because as others have pointed out, a 7-6 season could look pretty bad or it might show promise. So my criterion for a successful season is to show promise for future success.

I will feel good if our O-line is gashing conference opponents in the run game by the end of the season, the way we operated in say 2004 or 2006. That just makes everything else so much easier on offense. I personally believe that if our line gets back to performing the way it did under Coach M's first tour of duty, it won't matter who is lined up behind them. We probably have 8 backs talented enough to run through the holes JJ Arrington used to run through. Education and facilities and family atmosphere are all great, but if you want Byron Marshall's eyes to pop out of his head, start parting the red sea the way we used to for JJ. Nothing gets a RB more pumped than seeing a big hole open up.

I will feel good if one of our quarterbacks is showing real promise by mid-season. Imagine if Maynard starts looking Michaelvickian or if Bridgford starts looking Aaronrodgersesque? We're going to be really pumped for our next opponent, and for 2012. Sure, Riley's performance in the armed forces bowl that one year had us all excited and it turned out to be somewhat of an illusion but a little (or a lot) of reason to hope for great QB play sure beats the abject dejection we've been feeling recently about the most important position on the field.

I will feel good if our defense starts living up to its VAST potential by mid-season.

One word for special teams: just don't F it up for everyone else. OK that was like 8 words, but it was a single sentiment. I will feel good about ST if we are playing everyone to a draw in that phase of the game.

Overall, I will feel good if we do enough to get some of our high profile recruits, especially the OL, to think "this is a program on the rise, I better jump on board before it is too late." This last one is critical. We need uninterrupted transfusions of the kind of new blood Tosh & Co. have brought to Berkeley recently in order to get to and stay at the top of the P12. A couple of down recruiting years, especially on the OL, can easily cause the arc of our program to take a turn for the worst.

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Amen brother

drunkoski;554065 said:

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When's the last time we've won all our close games?

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you'd have to go all the way back to 2009. Seems like we've had this conversation before....

drunkoski;554097 said:

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We went 4-0 in close games? Different animal we are talking about.

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we went 3-0 in close games (ASU, UofA, Stanfurd). Which is what you asked.

drunkoski;554115 said:

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Forgive me for not believing that is easily repeatable.

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you really just can't say you're wrong can you. So Tedford suggests that if we just win our three close games last year (2010) we were <this> close to winning eight games (which he also says isn't what we're shooting for but isn't terrible either). You take exception with that suggesting there's nothing to back up that belief. When you're given the example from the previous year (2009) that it is exactly what happened, you pull out the past performance doesn't ensure future crap... You have enough fuel for your unhappiness without making up stuff... But you just can't help yourself.

grandmastapoop;554005 said:

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So throws for 3000 yards, 24 TDs, and honorable mention all conference?

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I was leaning toward the esque. You give us a QB that finishes just behind luck and barkley and we win 10 games.