Interesting perspective on how the Big 12 implosion plays out. In their scenario, TA&M and Mizzou go to the SEC starting in 2012. Kansas, K-State, and Iowa State end up in the Big 10, and (of course) the Oklahomas, TT, and Texas come to the Pac-12.

Read more at: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/839591-big-xii-breakup-missouri-next-to-jump-to-sec

BearLineman;563142 said:

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Being that it is Bleacherreport...probably not.

I'm more inclined to believe the info Purple Book Cat from Northwestern put out yesterday about Texas/ND providing the B1G with their terms. I imagine ND is seeing their time frame to join a conference rapidly closing. PBC has been a good source of info. I imagine if this happens Scott has to pick up OU/OSU..if not our expansion options are very limited and not appealing.

The sticking point has to be LHN again...I can't imagine ESPN letting the LHN fold into the B1G Network which is Fox I believe...but I guess everything can be bought.

http://northwestern.rivals.com/showmsg.asp?SID=901&fid=57&mid=162551220&tid=162506546

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PBC is a pretty good source but in this case, on of the main B1G guys, journalist or insider, can't remember said that there was NO truth whatsoever to the Texas and ND thing going down....I think he and someone else started this rumor and it went viral...not saying it isn't true but it seems really far fetched.....Texas would also be so disjointed from the conference geographically they would like like an outcast...the map on this looks ridiculous

the most depressing aspect of this is that in the end, it might be ESPN/Fox/ABC who have the deciding votes...University presidents have sold their souls.

UrsaMajor;563215 said:

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the most depressing aspect of this is that in the end, it might be ESPN/Fox/ABC who have the deciding votes...University presidents have sold their souls.

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The importance of the networks' wants/needs in expansion cannot be overstated. For that reason, I think there will be no major conference expansion. Those same network execs you mention leaked something that wound up on the Shaggybevo, which is a great source for all the truth and rumors that float around out there:

"The Big 12 media partners Fox Sports Media Group And ABC/ESPN are in the drivers seat and are negotiating as we speak with Oklahoma. Texas wants to stay and so does Oklahoma but Oklahoma want's to negotiate a Network deal like Texas has with LHN. Also Oklahoma wants a more evenly distribution of funds, as the feel it causes all kinds of problems with instability with the other conference members.

Yes Notre Dame has been involved in conversations, should the 16 team conference take place, they would be forced to make a choice, and I think the Big 12 is there best choice but they will have to make that decision

Baylor is helping more than you know, by buying some time for the media partners to work things out.

BYU has been contacted and there is a plan in place. I wish I could tell you more as to the specifics as pertain to BYU however there is a Gag order in place."

Best as I can figure it out, this is what will happen, and in the following order:

Oklahoma commits to Big XII after negotiations with ESPN and Texas.
Baylor and the the Big XII midgets agree not to sue SEC.
Pac-12 stands pat. Colorado cracks open a beer.
A&M to SEC.
BYU to Big XII. (http://www.newson6.com/story/15419503/report-byu-to-join-big-12-if-ou-remains-in-conference)
SEC picks up someone like West Virginia or Louisville for a 14th team.
Other ramifications happen in the east that do not impact Pac-12.
Big-12 stands pat.
Cal beats USC* at AT&T park.

While being interviewed on the UA-OSU game last evening was that they really want the Big 12 to survive. Since he has some $$$, I take more stock in what he's saying. Bottom line, $$$ talks and if he (and other wealthy folks) want the Big 12 to survive, it will most likely survive...

Very good post.

GinFizzBear;563234 said:

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"The Big 12 media partners Fox Sports Media Group And ABC/ESPN are in the drivers seat and are negotiating as we speak with Oklahoma. Texas wants to stay and so does Oklahoma but Oklahoma want's to negotiate a Network deal like Texas has with LHN. Also Oklahoma wants a more evenly distribution of funds, as the feel it causes all kinds of problems with instability with the other conference members.

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Wouldn't it have made a lot more sense for all parties concerned to have reached that decision last year, before Nebraska left?

GinFizzBear;563234 said:

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Yes Notre Dame has been involved in conversations, should the 16 team conference take place, they would be forced to make a choice, and I think the Big 12 is there best choice but they will have to make that decision

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The Big 10 would make a lot more sense in the 16 team conference context. They already play so many Big 10 teams, and geographically, they are in the heart of Big 10 country. If they go to another conference (not the Big 10), my guess would be the Big East. It works with their Basketball program, and it would pretty much allow their football program to assume a Big Fish/Small Pond position.

GinFizzBear;563234 said:

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Baylor is helping more than you know, by buying some time for the media partners to work things out.

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Baylor, K-State and Iowa State have the most to lose here, IMO. They would very possibly be relegated to CUSA, the MWC, or the WAC if the Big XII fully implodes.

GinFizzBear;563234 said:

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BYU has been contacted and there is a plan in place. I wish I could tell you more as to the specifics as pertain to BYU however there is a Gag order in place."

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Bringing in BYU makes a lot of sense if there is really going to be a last ditch attempt to save the Big XII

GinFizzBear;563234 said:

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Best as I can figure it out, this is what will happen, and in the following order:

Oklahoma commits to Big XII after negotiations with ESPN and Texas.
Baylor and the the Big XII midgets agree not to sue SEC.
Pac-12 stands pat. Colorado cracks open a beer.
A&M to SEC.
BYU to Big XII. (http://www.newson6.com/story/15419503/report-byu-to-join-big-12-if-ou-remains-in-conference)
SEC picks up someone like West Virginia or Louisville for a 14th team.
Other ramifications happen in the east that do not impact Pac-12.
Big-12 stands pat.
Cal beats USC* at AT&T park.

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I can see it playing out that way. I'd think the SEC would take WVU over Louisville, given that the latter doesn't have a deep football tradition. It does beg this question: If the Big XII has lost Nebraska, Colorado, and A & M, and then brings in BYU, which other two teams, if any, do they try to lure in? TCU would have made sense, but they just committed to the Big East. SMU? Houston? Colorado State? Boise State? New Mexico?

SoFlaBear;563138 said:

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Interesting perspective on how the Big 12 implosion plays out. In their scenario, TA&M and Mizzou go to the SEC starting in 2012. Kansas, K-State, and Iowa State end up in the Big 10, and (of course) the Oklahomas, TT, and Texas come to the Pac-12.

Read more at: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/839591-big-xii-breakup-missouri-next-to-jump-to-sec

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there's an outside chance the b1g takes kansas, maaaybe kstate, but no way they ever take iowa state, even if conferences hit 20 teams.

Agreed. I questioned that as well when I read the piece, and I think K-State would be a tough sell as well. As I wrote in another post, Baylor, Iowa State, and K-State stand to lose the most in a Big XII implosion.They would all, most likely, be forced into non-BCS conferences -- never to be heard from again. Kansas and Missouri would be very attractive to the Big 10, or possibly even the Pac 12 depending on how this plays out.

SoFlaBear;563268 said:

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Agreed. I questioned that as well when I read the piece, and I think K-State would be a tough sell as well. As I wrote in another post, Baylor, Iowa State, and K-State stand to lose the most in a Big XII implosion.They would all, most likely, be forced into non-BCS conferences -- never to be heard from again. Kansas and Missouri would be very attractive to the Big 10, or possibly even the Pac 12 depending on how this plays out.

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Because of the stakes involved, I expect the iowa states, baylors and kstates to make as big a stink as possible... but in the end it shouldn't matter. conferences come and go, and teams are occasionally left out in reorganizations - TCU has proved you can play your way out of such unfortunate outcomes.

If the SEC does end up with 14 teams, even if only for a couple of seasons, it will be interesting to see if they drop a non-conference game or a cross-division game. I hope for the former but suspect they will go with the latter.

GinFizzBear;563234 said:

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The importance of the networks' wants/needs in expansion cannot be overstated. For that reason, I think there will be no major conference expansion. Those same network execs you mention leaked something that wound up on the Shaggybevo, which is a great source for all the truth and rumors that float around out there:

"The Big 12 media partners Fox Sports Media Group And ABC/ESPN are in the drivers seat and are negotiating as we speak with Oklahoma. Texas wants to stay and so does Oklahoma but Oklahoma want's to negotiate a Network deal like Texas has with LHN. Also Oklahoma wants a more evenly distribution of funds, as the feel it causes all kinds of problems with instability with the other conference members.

Yes Notre Dame has been involved in conversations, should the 16 team conference take place, they would be forced to make a choice, and I think the Big 12 is there best choice but they will have to make that decision

Baylor is helping more than you know, by buying some time for the media partners to work things out.

BYU has been contacted and there is a plan in place. I wish I could tell you more as to the specifics as pertain to BYU however there is a Gag order in place."

Best as I can figure it out, this is what will happen, and in the following order:

Oklahoma commits to Big XII after negotiations with ESPN and Texas.
Baylor and the the Big XII midgets agree not to sue SEC.
Pac-12 stands pat. Colorado cracks open a beer.
A&M to SEC.
BYU to Big XII. (http://www.newson6.com/story/15419503/report-byu-to-join-big-12-if-ou-remains-in-conference)
SEC picks up someone like West Virginia or Louisville for a 14th team.
Other ramifications happen in the east that do not impact Pac-12.
Big-12 stands pat.
Cal beats USC* at AT&T park.

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For the last week, I've had the undeniable feeling that there's been a shift in where the Big XII story is headed.

ESPN, et al have a vested interest in promoting the story of potential upheaval; it makes for more eyeballs on their websites.

Truthfully, I doubt that the BCS AQ conferences and the TV networks (ESPN, ABC, CBS, etc.) are really looking to go super-conference at this point in time. It strikes me as a little too early given the most recent TV contracts with the SEC, Big XII, ACC, and Pac-12; the B1G contract doesn't expire until 2016, and the Big East contract is due for renewal in 2013.

Next year or the year after for the super-conference shake-out makes sense from this perspective. The small incremental steps in bold, above, make sense.

GinFizzBear;563234 said:

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The importance of the networks' wants/needs in expansion cannot be overstated. For that reason, I think there will be no major conference expansion. Those same network execs you mention leaked something that wound up on the Shaggybevo, which is a great source for all the truth and rumors that float around out there:

"The Big 12 media partners Fox Sports Media Group And ABC/ESPN are in the drivers seat and are negotiating as we speak with Oklahoma. Texas wants to stay and so does Oklahoma but Oklahoma want's to negotiate a Network deal like Texas has with LHN. Also Oklahoma wants a more evenly distribution of funds, as the feel it causes all kinds of problems with instability with the other conference members.

Yes Notre Dame has been involved in conversations, should the 16 team conference take place, they would be forced to make a choice, and I think the Big 12 is there best choice but they will have to make that decision

Baylor is helping more than you know, by buying some time for the media partners to work things out.

BYU has been contacted and there is a plan in place. I wish I could tell you more as to the specifics as pertain to BYU however there is a Gag order in place."

Best as I can figure it out, this is what will happen, and in the following order:

Oklahoma commits to Big XII after negotiations with ESPN and Texas.
Baylor and the the Big XII midgets agree not to sue SEC.
Pac-12 stands pat. Colorado cracks open a beer.
A&M to SEC.
BYU to Big XII. (http://www.newson6.com/story/15419503/report-byu-to-join-big-12-if-ou-remains-in-conference)
SEC picks up someone like West Virginia or Louisville for a 14th team.
Other ramifications happen in the east that do not impact Pac-12.
Big-12 stands pat.
Cal beats USC* at AT&T park.

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I pretty much agree as long as Boren doesn't go ballistic, fed up and just leaves....the only thing that keeps me wondering is that OU will actually have to take a pay cut since they are getting more than the others now.. as will Texas...and that would be smart...but in the end, Texas and Okie will have networks and no one else will. There will still be the feelings of the "haves and have nots" even with revenue sharing...in the B1G and Pac12, we bring all the schools together for TV...but in the Big12, if you aren't Texas or Okie, well, you aren't good enough to even get a joint network...that sucks and still divides the schools....

Cal_Fan2;563311 said:

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I pretty much agree as long as Boren doesn't go ballistic, fed up and just leaves....the only thing that keeps me wondering is that OU will actually have to take a pay cut since they are getting more than the others now.. as will Texas...and that would be smart...but in the end, Texas and Okie will have networks and no one else will. There will still be the feelings of the "haves and have nots" even with revenue sharing...in the B1G and Pac12, we bring all the schools together for TV...but in the Big12, if you aren't Texas or Okie, well, you aren't good enough to even get a joint network...that sucks and still divides the schools....

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There is also that random element of chance for Boren, but OU strikes me as patient and thoughtful, unlike Aggy. I don't think they take a pay cut after the current negotiations are said and done. OU wouldn't do that to itself.

The Big-XII is full of have/have nots, but everyone not named Texas or OU is desperate to see this conference work out. Texas and OU would prefer it to work out since it makes life easy for them and their path to the BCS. Remaining 7 don't have any other good options, although Kansas and MO have the Big East to fall back on.

Armageddon probably isn't happening for a few more years, if it happens. agree with fiatslug. but Larry says it will; who am I to doubt the Master of the Universe. And it would take a joint block of OU/Texas/TT/OSU approaching Larry to make it happen in a few years, assuming my prediction above comes to pass.

GinFizzBear;563321 said:

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There is also that random element of chance for Boren, but OU strikes me as patient and thoughtful, unlike Aggy. I don't think they take a pay cut after the current negotiations are said and done. OU wouldn't do that to itself.

The Big-XII is full of have/have nots, but everyone not named Texas or OU is desperate to see this conference work out. Texas and OU would prefer it to work out since it makes life easy for them and their path to the BCS. Remaining 7 don't have any other good options, although Kansas and MO have the Big East to fall back on.

Armageddon isn't happening for a few more years, if it happens. but Larry says it will; who am I to doubt the Master of the Universe. But it would take a joint block of OU/Texas/TT/OSU approaching Larry to make it happen in a few years, assuming my prediction above comes to pass.

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I don't disagree with you at all...But this conference is built on bullies and pussies who whine and cower, especially Baylor, ISU, and KSU. Of course they don't care if they get scraps and nothing else because they have no leverage and don't have the fortitude to get any....I just think schools like TTU, Missouri and possibly Okie St will be simmering volcanos and something might blow down the line.....and I mean some type of sabotage or such mean spirited and hate filled stuff the that conference will keep looking worse and worse...you are right that nobody can really do much but I fear an uprising somewhere down the line..and it could be Missouri to make the first move.. ...BYU might fit in there nicely but how long are they going to put up with the Big12 shenanigans.....?

I find the whole thing fascinating but continue to believe there are too many reasons for this not to happen:

Tx cannot keep the LHN if they go to the P16 so they have incentives to make minor concessions if it means keeping the conference alive.

Baylor, KState and I-State are dead men walking if the conference dies so they have incentives to give additional concessions if it means keeping the conference alive.

Mizzu and Kansas are wildcards but uncertainty about the future likely influences them to preserve the B12.

ESPN/Fox have numerous reasons for wanting the B12 to survive and will likely pony up more money to keep the conference alive.

The Okies want stability and money. Interestingly, more money (i.e., network) for them actually leads to more conference stability so this is a relatively easy problem to solve (see preceding comment about ESPN/Fox).

BYU almost certainly will jump at the chance to join the B12 if they have some reasonable assurance of long term stability. If OK gets their network BYU will join.

Once BYU joins A&M is allowed to leave.

Interesting comment on sports radio. I would attribute it to Les Miles, but I'm not sure I'm correct.

The SEC will expand geographically and not just for the sake of taking in more teams. In other words, taking TA&M makes sense since it opens the Texas market to recruiting and more eyes on television, where taking Louisville does not open any new avenues. The Kentucky market is adequately filled by UK. Inviting Missouri makes sense since it opens the entire St. Louis and western Missouri market to the SEC. Likewise, with WVU, as it is not an area currently served by an SEC network.

The B1G probably thinks the same way when consideration of Nebraska was under review. Kansas, although not a highly populated state, still offers a new area to explore for the network and for recruiting.

If you follow the logic throughout, the BIG 12 is clearly history. I see it as Poland, when the Russians and Germans sliced it up over a period of fifty years.

tequila4kapp;563328 said:

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I find the whole thing fascinating but continue to believe there are too many reasons for this not to happen:

Tx cannot keep the LHN if they go to the P16 so they have incentives to make minor concessions if it means keeping the conference alive.

Baylor, KState and I-State are dead men walking if the conference dies so they have incentives to give additional concessions if it means keeping the conference alive.

Mizzu and Kansas are wildcards but uncertainty about the future likely influences them to preserve the B12.

ESPN/Fox have numerous reasons for wanting the B12 to survive and will likely pony up more money to keep the conference alive.

The Okies want stability and money. Interestingly, more money (i.e., network) for them actually leads to more conference stability so this is a relatively easy problem to solve (see preceding comment about ESPN/Fox).

BYU almost certainly will jump at the chance to join the B12 if they have some reasonable assurance of long term stability. If OK gets their network BYU will join.

Once BYU joins A&M is allowed to leave.

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Agree. BYU has nothing to lose by joining Big XII (they're already independent). If it doesn't work out, oh well they just go back to independence.

GinFizzBear;563348 said:

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Agree. BYU has nothing to lose by joining Big XII (they're already independent). If it doesn't work out, oh well they just go back to independence.

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Wouldn't it be a hoot if all this was about to calm down...and then Baylor, Missouri, Kansas, KSU and ISU end up going to the Big East, OU and OSU come to the Pac 12, Notre Dame goes to the Big10, TTU commits suicide and the Mexicans invade the Alamo all over again....

GinFizzBear;563234 said:

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Best as I can figure it out, this is what will happen, and in the following order:

Oklahoma commits to Big XII after negotiations with ESPN and Texas.
Baylor and the the Big XII midgets agree not to sue SEC.
Pac-12 stands pat. Colorado cracks open a beer.
A&M to SEC.
BYU to Big XII. (http://www.newson6.com/story/15419503/report-byu-to-join-big-12-if-ou-remains-in-conference)
SEC picks up someone like West Virginia or Louisville for a 14th team.
Other ramifications happen in the east that do not impact Pac-12.
Big-12 stands pat.
Cal beats USC* at AT&T park.

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Let's revive the idea of PAC12 expands to include:
Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia and North Carolina.

It would be the equivalent of MacArthur's landing at Inchon during the Korean War.

:p