It helps if the favorite is a bit overrated and you have some talent that you can leverage (Allen & Jones in our case). YOu have to take more risks than you normally would - look to steal a few extra possesions - maybe a surprise onside kick or fake punt. Going in you have to figure you'll need to be at least +3 if not more in turnovers. Oregon can lay it on the ground. Field goals aren't likely to cut it. If there ever was a time for a fake FG, I'm sure they'll be a few opportunities. The longer the game goes without us getting blown out the better our chances will be. We have to play the underdog card. Hopefully the coaches are letting our kids know nobody thinks they can win. That people think we don't belong on the same field with them.

We also need stellar game plans on both sides of the ball. Come on Clancy, they're going to look to counter what we did last year - be ready for it! Come on Tedford, you have two of the best pass receivers in the country, and a pretty good QB - give them a chance to win the game for you. Give Sofele up the gut a rest this week.

We have nothing to lose. All the pressure is on them.

:tedford:gobears:

I don't think we are going to win but I have a good feeling we are going to be able to score and Oregon's strength (run game) matches well with our defense

usually they happen at home. autzen is not a friendly place. jt says we have to tackle well as they are fast and elusive.

Im thinkin like that 06 or 07 season, when Ezeff made that game saving tackle.

Upsets usually have the underdog get off to a good start, lead early and get a few turnovers. They then often require a big play late to seal the win on defense or a big first down or TD to finish it off on offense. Hopefully this is the formula Thursday.

FYI - there is a history of upsets that happen on thurs night ESPN games. For example, South Florida against Pittsburgh last week. I think Cal will give the quacks a battle this week ....

GO BEARS!!!!!!!!

pappysghost;583953 said:

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- maybe a surprise onside kick or fake punt.

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If one of those two things happens, I will run down the street with enthusiasm unknown to mankind.

The rugby style punts work well for fakes. Since the punter is already rolling out one direction, if he picks up a block or two he can run for the first down. I wonder if Anger has the freedom to do that if it sets up properly.

You need to have the Nobody Believed In Us angle permeate throughout the team.

The first key is to stop their running game. The Michael is a serious threat.

In order to upset them, we just simply have to score more points than oregon. hahaha

"A few more risks than Usual" More risks X zero is ZERO!

waltwa;584263 said:

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"A few more risks than Usual" More risks X zero is ZERO!

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How about add instead of multiply?

waltwa;584263 said:

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"A few more risks than Usual" More risks X zero is ZERO!

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Why are you multiplying?

"more than" implies addition.

Go Bears?

waltwa;584263 said:

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"A few more risks than Usual" More risks X zero is ZERO!

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For example, "Just what this board needs, one more example of the declining academic standards in California." Take the large pile of examples, add your contribution, and you get pile plus one.

If we dominate the line of scrimmage like we did last year... it will not be a blowout. Oregon struggles against big, strong, and athletic front 7's. If we stick to the OLB change with McCain, Whiteside, and Wilkerson instead of Campo and Davis, we definitely have a chance to dominate the line of scrimmage. The new rule of offensive substitutions allowing for defensive subs will help this year. Our DL should control the LoS in the same manner like last year. If that occurs, Darron Thomas will have to beat us thru the air and we know outside of the RB's that the WR's are not a strength of the Oregon offense.

The game starts at 6:00 PM on Thursday in Eugene, which is 2 hours south of Portland. It is expected to be raining. The game will be televised.

Might this impact:

1) The number of people they have in the stands, at least at kickoff?

2) The amount of alcohol the people in the stands will have had, at least at kickoff?

3) The noise level?

EBBear2009;584329 said:

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If we dominate the line of scrimmage like we did last year... it will not be a blowout. Oregon struggles against big, strong, and athletic front 7's. If we stick to the OLB change with McCain, Whiteside, and Wilkerson instead of Campo and Davis, we definitely have a chance to dominate the line of scrimmage. The new rule of offensive substitutions allowing for defensive subs will help this year. Our DL should control the LoS in the same manner like last year. If that occurs, Darron Thomas will have to beat us thru the air and we know outside of the RB's that the WR's are not a strength of the Oregon offense.

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while i agree mccain, whiteside and wilkerson should get more PT this season (because it'll set us up better for next season), we will be absolutely ANNIHILATED by the ducks if our young OLBs blow their assignments like they did against washington. we made austin sefarian-jenkins look like ed dickson last week, and we all know what ed dickson did to us the last time we were in autzen...

the last time we had a big upset on the road was against michigan state in 2002. that was a combination of (1) superior special teams play (2) tons of turnovers in the redzone and (3) a cool motto of "74,000 disappointed fans."



(3) i've yet to hear about
(2) we have 3 days to pray for
(1) there's a better chance of me winning the bronze in female gymnastics

EBBear2009;584329 said:

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Our DL should control the LoS in the same manner like last year. If that occurs, Darron Thomas will have to beat us thru the air and we know outside of the RB's that the WR's are not a strength of the Oregon offense.

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I'm not so sure about your DL being favored to control the LoS. The Ducks OLine is pretty decent at what they do. The WR aren't all that bad either & Darron Thomas was 2nd team All Pac 10 last year, so it's more pick your poison. Tuinei is a solid possession receiver, Huff is very athletic, & TE David Paulson was All Pac 10 1st team last year. You'll see Kenyon Barner line up outside often too. The new talent is still being worked in, but thats where the Ducks have real upside. Rahsaan Vaughn was rated the top JC WR by rivals last year. WR Devon Blackmon & TE Colt Lyerla were rated in the top 100 recruits in HS.

calumnus;584557 said:

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EBBear2009 didn't put in enough qualifiers for you? "A chance" is far short from "favored to" and he made it clear than even if we do, what that will do is keep us from getting blown out. Not really bulletin board material.

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should is different then might... did you read what I quoted?

Jeebus, I thought I was being polite and I still get jumped on

calumnus;584573 said:

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I see, you focused on that one word? I can see how if you take it out of context it would read that way. However, given the other qualifiers, before and after, (which I quoted) I definitely read it more as what we should be trying to do, strategically. We should do what we did last year--i.e., try to control the line of scrimmage. If we do....

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sorry but I didn't take things out of context. The ifs and various qualifiers led up to the big conclusion of should. Of course both teams will strategically try to control the LoS... every team tries to do that every game.

Quote:

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Anyway, no need to get your feathers ruffled. You guys are definitely favored in this game (which is why this thread is titled "Anatomy of a big upset"), and that starts at the line of scrimmage.

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my feathers are just fine... why so defensive? It's just a game that neither you or I are playing in. We're both on the sideline watching/blathering on, having zero impact on what will happen. Regardless of whoever wins or loses, I'm going golfing on Friday and then I'm having ribs.

Somehow I don't see Tedford risking a short field with an on-side KO but we have, in the past, been very aggressive at the line of scrimmage and had some success at stuffing their run game. I'd agree, you only beat a better team by getting out of your comfort zone in some phase and I'd expect a major push against the run and take our chances against their passing game.

59bear;584690 said:

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Somehow I don't see Tedford risking a short field with an on-side KO but we have, in the past, been very aggressive at the line of scrimmage and had some success at stuffing their run game. I'd agree, you only beat a better team by getting out of your comfort zone in some phase and I'd expect a major push against the run and take our chances against their passing game.

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Agreed - we have had success doing that. But, one risk on stacking the line of scrimmage is that if you miss one tackle their RBs can take it to the house. That's how Jahvid got most of his big TDs. We were fortunate to have near-perfect tackling and gap-filling last year to prevent any big plays - out of 55 carries their longest 2 runs of the day were 11 and 13 yards. Without that - things can get ugly in a hurry when you play that aggressive at the LOS.

diego;584547 said:

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I'm not so sure about your DL being favored to control the LoS. The Ducks OLine is pretty decent at what they do. The WR aren't all that bad either & Darron Thomas was 2nd team All Pac 10 last year, so it's more pick your poison. Tuinei is a solid possession receiver, Huff is very athletic, & TE David Paulson was All Pac 10 1st team last year. You'll see Kenyon Barner line up outside often too. The new talent is still being worked in, but thats where the Ducks have real upside. Rahsaan Vaughn was rated the top JC WR by rivals last year. WR Devon Blackmon & TE Colt Lyerla were rated in the top 100 recruits in HS.

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Your OL and WR corps from last year was much better than this years version. All I said though was our DL and possibly OL should control the LoS like last year. We are one of the few Pac-12 teams with the defensive players that give Oregon's offense fits. Our DL is deep (3 deep at each of the 3 spots), quick, and physical. Our LB are very athletic, quick and if the OLBs play to their potential... the Oregon running game will be slowed down. While that will help keep us in the game, it won't be a victory without some help along the way.

Yes Darron Thomas was 2nd team Pac-10... but this year he won't be. Oregon will live and die with your 3 RB's. I'm not sure that it really matters what I think, but I for one would rather take our chances of a CAL win/loss on the shoulders of Thomas and your WR's. By taking James, Barner, and Thomas out of their normal running game and placing that game on your new WR's and TE's, we have a much better chance of winning that way than by letting LMJ and others run all over us.

EBBear2009;584826 said:

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Your OL and WR corps from last year was much better than this years version.

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I'd agree on the WR assessment, so far. Of course they graduated a couple of productive Seniors but their returning deep threat (Josh Huff) has been hampered by a leg injury and the outstanding new talent is getting worked in. Huff played vs Zona and should be good to go for this game. TE Paulson was 1st team All Pac 10 last year and Tuinei has been very solid. They need Huff or one of the new guys (probably Vaughn) to stretch the field.

I like this year's OL better then last years. For starters, they're bigger and more athletic. Greatwood's lines have a history of coming together after a few games and they sure were clicking vs Arizona.

Quote:

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All I said though was our DL and possibly OL should control the LoS like last year. We are one of the few Pac-12 teams with the defensive players that give Oregon's offense fits. Our DL is deep (3 deep at each of the 3 spots), quick, and physical. Our LB are very athletic, quick and if the OLBs play to their potential... the Oregon running game will be slowed down. While that will help keep us in the game, it won't be a victory without some help along the way.

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and all I said was I disagree about whether they should, which is fine. Obviously I believe in Oregon's OLine more then you.

Quote:

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Yes Darron Thomas was 2nd team Pac-10... but this year he won't be. Oregon will live and die with your 3 RB's. I'm not sure that it really matters what I think, but I for one would rather take our chances of a CAL win/loss on the shoulders of Thomas and your WR's. By taking James, Barner, and Thomas out of their normal running game and placing that game on your new WR's and TE's, we have a much better chance of winning that way than by letting LMJ and others run all over us.

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Until the Ducks establish a deep threat, I expect teams to try to load the box and try to take away LaMichael. Pretty sure Chip knows this too. I'm happy that they've quite a few great options starting with Huff. They flare out Kenyon Barner too, but like Huff he missed some time early on this season. He was back for Zona though. New guys to watch include TE Colt Lyerla, WRs Rahsaan Vaughn & Devon Blackmon & RBs De'Anthony Thomas and Tra Carson.

I will give it to oregon that Rahsaan Vaughn was a nice pick up, hes a 70 yard touchdown waiting to happen very explosive and has legit 4.4 speed. but as for blackmon, has a bad case of the dropsies, and gets jammed easily. So I do expect Oregon to run it alot especially because of Huffs injuries.

goldenjax;584985 said:

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I will give it to oregon that Rahsaan Vaughn was a nice pick up, hes a 70 yard touchdown waiting to happen very explosive and has legit 4.4 speed. but as for blackmon, has a bad case of the dropsies, and gets jammed easily. So I do expect Oregon to run it alot especially because of Huffs injuries.

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again, Huff played vs Arizona and is thought to be 100% going into this game. As for Blackmon, they haven't pulled off his redshirt yet. Brian Butterfield may be who you're thinking of. I'm not alone among Duck fans looking forward to Devon taking his snaps.

EBBear2009;584329 said:

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If we dominate the line of scrimmage like we did last year... it will not be a blowout. Oregon struggles against big, strong, and athletic front 7's. If we stick to the OLB change with McCain, Whiteside, and Wilkerson instead of Campo and Davis, we definitely have a chance to dominate the line of scrimmage.

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Get a hold of yourself Eddie. Did you mistake Presbyterian for Penn St.? We couldn't dominate Colorado or UW so we're going to be pushing a top 10 team like ORegon around in their house? Did all their starters and their backups get suspended?

I haven't seen to many 24 point underdogs hold their own at the LOS let alone control it. We'll be in control of when we come out for warm ups. After that, I'd keep my hand on the remote because it could be ugly fast :cry:

pappysghost;585134 said:

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Get a hold of yourself Eddie. Did you mistake Presbyterian for Penn St.? We couldn't dominate Colorado or UW so we're going to be pushing a top 10 team like ORegon around in their house? Did all their starters and their backups get suspended?

I haven't seen to many 24 point underdogs hold their own at the LOS let alone control it. We'll be in control of when we come out for warm ups. After that, I'd keep my hand on the remote because it could be ugly fast :cry:

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I agree that we will struggle to beat Oregon, but I don't agree with our DL not stopping UDub's running game. Washington's OL is much bigger and more physical compared to Oregon's. I was just making the point that our front 7 is the usual type of defense that gives Oregon's "O" problems. Auburn and LSU both used OUR game film to see how to slow down Oregon's offense. As long as we make few mistakes, keep containment, and make those tackles (which has given us fits this year so far)... if we do those 3 things, Oregon's offense will more closely resemble the one that played Auburn instead of the one that played Arizona.

I also believe that Colorado game is a bad example of our defense. Playing at altitude is not easy and we really need to look at how to overcome this in the future since Utah and Colorado will be played a lot in the future.

We will need to play a mostly flawless game to win, but we are one of the defenses in the nation that can slow down Oregon's offense.

drunkoski;585251 said:

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we have the speed to slow oregon down. i'm not sure i see teh discipline needed from this team.

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I think it is "experience" more than discipline....our new guys at OLB haven't played enough to sniff out those screens and swing passes yet....now the secondary I have no idea if it is discipline but I think it is talent.....

drunkoski;585260 said:

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well discipline comes with experience. i have too many memories of mccain among others looking completely lost on certain plays against colorado. you can't do that against oregon. you need to know EXACTLY who you are covering.

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I agree but you can have discipline but misread the play because you don't have the experience to decipher schemes yet. I didn't see McCain as confused in the UDub game as he was in the CU game. All in all our OLB's need many more reps to become as competent as Holt and Kendricks in reading plays

We are fast. We did play great defense on them last year, but I expect them to have some more answers this time around. They'll probably look to throw a little bit more which could be in our favor, or work out badly since our pass defense has been shaky. I worry that we won't be able to run the ball well enough ourselves especially in the red zone.

I don't buy the altitude excuse. We don't have much of a pass rush and Anthony got torched.

I think Williams is good. NOt sure about Anthony. He seems pretty tough in run support. In pass coverage he's always trailing his man, but I don't think it's always an athletic short coming for him. Maybe he'll have a good game tomorrow.

Tackling is huge against them. Last time we were up there they just kept throwing that wide receiver screen for first down after first down. I hope we got that figured out anyway.

drunkoski;585271 said:

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oregon's offense isn't overly complicated. thomas did miss some wide open guys last year. if he comes out hot we could be in deep trouble. my guess is to win we need to score at least 35. i could see us holding them down a bit, but no repeat of last year. we are bound to give up a couple 70+ plays.

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With all of the media talk about Cal's D not planning to take dives this year in order to stop Oregon's fast paced offense, will Oregon desist from using illegal pick plays to injure Cal's d-backs? or has the play of our d-backs this season mean that the Duckies will let them be?