wow, we are 24-point 'dogs right now.

+24 for sure.....I really miss "24"

Not a surpriseto me.....the Cal players will mature and play better (Cal should score 3 or 4 TDs), but we must remember that they are saddled with the same coaching that coached the UDub game....

I hope the Duckies believe in that spread.

I can see us covering that spread. Something like 50-30....

my opinion we cover. good value bet. also think they don't get 50 on our d. i will predict oregon wins 35-24.

If this line makes you say "wow", you are a delusional homer. I think we have a chance to beat it, but that's part of what makes it a decent spread.

A Cal win 3 turnovers to our 1. 38 to 35.

drunkoski;585289 said:

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ducks have averaged 60 points a game at home the last 8 games. i get it.

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And half of those eight games were against non-BCS opponents (New Mexico, Portland State, Nevada, and Missouri State).

Only counting the 4 BCS opponents (Stanford, UCLA, Arizona and Wsh), the average drops to a slightly less impressive 53.25. And of course those games were all last season.

This season the data are limited. After the loss at LSU when they "only" scored 27, they put up 69 against Nevada at home, 56 against Missouri State at home, and 56 at Arizona, but those three teams are a combined 2-12 this season (2-9 in their games against teams other than Oregon).

I'd like to think that Cal's D is better than those of Nevada, Missouri State and Arizona, and that it can hold the Ducks to under 45. And I think Cal can score more than 20.

Hmmmmm....Cal loses 45 to 21 (assuming all PATs made, of course)...but a loss is a loss, is it not? Cool, now we Cal fans are arguing over how many points Cal will be beaten by? Not putting anything or anyone down, but see how Tedford's program has isolated itself?

The question: are they really 24 points better than us?

Do we have talent? Yes.
Do we have depth? Yes.
Can we score at will? Yes.
Are we a good defensive team? Maybe.
Can we stop the run? Yes. We're in the Top 10 in the country at the moment.
Can we stop the pass? Yes and No. Playing Man-to-Man forcing Thomas to throw the ball on the run or the result of a "hurry" gives us a chance. Are their receivers of the same quality as the last two or three years? I don't know the answer to that.
Do we have injuries? If so, not much has been heard on that front.
Can we deal with the crowd? I surely hope so. Everyone always says to take the crowd out of it you must score first and often thereafter.
Do we have a quality rusher? Yes and No. Isi is apparently a tough little guy who showed results in Seattle. If Oregon's defense is not up to it, Isi might have a good day. I hope also to see Anderson and Johnson contributing. Keeping Oregon offense off the field is key to the game.

6bear6;585391 said:

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The question: are they really 24 points better than us?

Do we have talent? Yes.
Do we have depth? Yes.
Can we score at will? Yes.
Are we a good defensive team? Maybe.
Can we stop the run? Yes. We're in the Top 10 in the country at the moment.
Can we stop the pass? Yes and No. Playing Man-to-Man forcing Thomas to throw the ball on the run or the result of a "hurry" gives us a chance. Are their receivers of the same quality as the last two or three years? I don't know the answer to that.
Do we have injuries? If so, not much has been heard on that front.
Can we deal with the crowd? I surely hope so. Everyone always says to take the crowd out of it you must score first and often thereafter.
Do we have a quality rusher? Yes and No. Isi is apparently a tough little guy who showed results in Seattle. If Oregon's defense is not up to it, Isi might have a good day. I hope also to see Anderson and Johnson contributing. Keeping Oregon offense off the field is key to the game.

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Um, what? Cal scored 3 points in the 2nd half against Washington. I'd disagree that we can score at will against anyone not named Presby. And no, we can't stop the pass.

"Can we stop the pass?"

HELL NO! The most consistent thing about our team this season is how our defensive backs are getting torched by opposing QB's/receivers.

we're doomed....
:cry:

Sonofafurd;585337 said:

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If this line makes you say "wow", you are a delusional homer. I think we have a chance to beat it, but that's part of what makes it a decent spread.

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homer yes, delusional no.

but i'm looking at it from a betting perspective. furd was favored by 21 points (and covered) last week against ucla. it is hard for me to believe that the perceived disparity between cal and oregon approaches that between ucla and furd. ucla is horrible.

cal to cover.

Maynard to Allen/Jones/Calvin/Miller is definitely scoring at will. Their DBs are in for a long night. And we were burned in Seattle by our safety biting on a TE, instead of Polk coming out of the backfield. That's not going to happen again.

of course they have a chance, and I think the game will be close. Don't underestimate the spirit of this year's team. They will not give up or give in. Oregon is "better" but Cal could win outright with a plus turnover ratio, and TDs instead of field goals. the defense had a few bad days before last years' game too, but rose to the occasion. We will score enough points to win unless the defense doesn't step up. I say we will.

36-31 Bears. Thank me Friday.

I guess you and I are the only ones who think we can and will actually win this game! I don't know, I just have a wierd but good feeling about it. I really don't thing Oregon is that great this year. If we play up to our potential we win, period!:acclaim:

If we're able to get a push by our OL, and slow the game down with a solid running game, we'll be okay on offense. If our running game isn't clicking, Tedford needs to make every effort to make it work, whether it be substitutions, reverses, options, misdirection, because once we become primarily a passing team, we're toast. We'll lose by 50.

The secondary is the least of my concern. Our secondary is going to be fine. The real key for our defense is how well our linebackers are able to read the offense. There will be a lot of counters, misdirection plays, and scrambles by the QB that will inevitably decide the fate of this game. If our LBers are not well prepared and become sitting ducks, or make the wrong read, we're in trouble. We need to take proper angles in the open field, and bottle up the ball carriers.

Everyone keeps saying slow the game down -- and that's obviously on offense since you can control tempo. But the Ducks average time of possession has been 23 minutes. They don't care if you slow the game down -- and don't score. But they'll score on you in 2 minutes. We don't need to slow the game down on offense. But on D, we need to stop their run. It remains to be seen if the Ducks can drop 50 on someone by having to throw. We may have to die trying.

6bear6;585638 said:

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Maynard to Allen/Jones/Calvin/Miller is definitely scoring at will. Their DBs are in for a long night. And we were burned in Seattle by our safety biting on a TE, instead of Polk coming out of the backfield. That's not going to happen again.

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The UW game was only 11 days ago and already the revisionists are at work. Our red zone offense there was awful, and I'm not just talking about 1st and goal from the 2. The whole game it sucked. You can't blame the defense for that.

As good as our WRs are, there's still plenty that can and has gone wrong with our offense.