In 2011, we had the fifth worst 4th down conversion percentage of any team in FBS.....and it was even worse last year.<br /><br />2011: 28% conversion, #116 out of 120 in FBS<br />2010: 25% conversion, #113 out of 120 in FBS<br />2009: 40% conversion, #85 out of 120 in FBS<br />2008: 36% converstion, #94 out of 120 in FBS<br /><br />Bad luck over a small dataset...or evidence of not calling the right play at the right time?<br /><br /><a href="<a href="<a href="<a href="<a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct""""" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct""""</a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct"""</a>" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct"""</a></a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="<a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct""</a>"" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct""</a>"</a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct""</a></a>" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct""</a></a></a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="<a href="<a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct"</a>""" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct"</a>""</a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct"</a>"</a>" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct"</a>"</a></a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="<a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct"</a></a>"" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct"</a></a>"</a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct"</a></a></a>" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct"</a></a></a></a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="<a href="<a href="<a href="<a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct""""" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct""""</a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct"""</a>" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct"""</a></a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="<a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct""</a>"" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct""</a>"</a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct""</a></a>" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct""</a></a></a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="<a href="<a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct"</a>""" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct"</a>""</a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct"</a>"</a>" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct"</a>"</a></a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="<a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct"</a></a>"" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct"</a></a>"</a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct"</a></a></a>" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct"</a></a></a></a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="<a href="<a href="<a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct</a></a>"""" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct</a></a>"""</a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct</a></a>""</a>" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct</a></a>""</a></a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="<a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct</a></a>"</a>"" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct</a></a>"</a>"</a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct</a></a>"</a></a>" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct</a></a>"</a></a></a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="<a href="<a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct</a></a></a>""" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct</a></a></a>""</a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct</a></a></a>"</a>" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct</a></a></a>"</a></a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="<a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct</a></a></a></a>"" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct</a></a></a></a>"</a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct</a></a></a></a></a>" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/fourth-down-conversion-pct</a></a></a></a></a></a>

...except if the circumstances are either dire (down by more than one score with time running out) or else the game is in hand (kneel down). In either case, the odds of conversion are low.<br /><br />This is one of my biggest sources of frustration with Tedford--the stubborn refusal to ever recognize the actual risk/reward on 4th down. <br /><br />It would be more interesting to compare the success rate for coaches that are always going for it (Chip Kelly vs. the Baylor guy vs. etc., etc.)

Who says he "refuses to recognize the risk/reward"?<br />I'm sure he recognizes it... Just recognizes it differently than you and think the reward is not worth the risk.

Having a rare mid-week day off is dangerous. Here ya go...<br /><br />Chip Kelley 4th down conversion<br />2011: 43%, #90 out of 120 FBS teams<br />2010: 65%, #21 out of 120 FBS teams<br /><br />Lane Kiffin 4th down conversion<br />2011: 56%, #35 out of 120 FBS teams<br />2010: 56%, #46 out of 120 FBS teams<br /><br />Harbaugh/Shaw 4th down conversion<br />2011: 92%, #2 out of 120 FBS teams<br />2010: 67%, #16 out of 120 FBS teams<br /><br />Art Briles/Baylor 4th down conversion<br />2011: 70%, #13 of 120 FBS teams<br />2010: 55%, #54 of 120 FBS teams<br /><br />And LSU was probably the best overall: 80% conversion this year and 90% conversion last year.

I think this just puts to numbers what we've seen. If its 4th and short but we're not close to the opponents 40, we'll punt if its within the first 3 quarters. So we're not getting any of those short, makeable 4th downs where the other team still has to defend ~half a field. <br /><br />Plus, if its 4th and short inside the 35, we'll kick a FG with our surprise of the year, consistent FG kicker. <br /><br />So, almost all our 4th down attempts are probably desperation heaves, while other teams have some of those 4th and inches or feet gimmes that get converted at a decent clip. <br /><br />Regarding play selection and calling, I'd love for someone to put something together regarding 2 point conversions. I feel like we always give them up when the opponent has to have one or even when they just go for it. Then, when we have to go for it we have a fairly low percent pass play called. I think we got one when it mattered against the Furd, but it wasn't pretty.

<blockquote><div class="name-said">freshfunk;662154 said:</div><hr>Who says he "refuses to recognize the risk/reward"?<br />I'm sure he recognizes it... Just recognizes it differently than you and think the reward is not worth the risk.<hr></blockquote><br /><br />There have been actual studies done on this, you know. They say that it usually is worth the risk.

<blockquote><div class="name-said">sycasey;662183 said:</div><hr>There have been actual studies done on this, you know. They say that it usually is worth the risk.<hr></blockquote><br /><br />In my business we have this thing called "vanity metrics" and it refers to how people pick and choose stats to tell a certain kind of story. This kind of thing happens all the time. See politics.<br /><br />The thing is that people like to easily partition decisions into "always yes" or "always no" categories... probably because they find it too difficult to actually analyze (or acknowledge) a complex situation with many variables. This is why most people vote by "identity politics."<br /><br />While, on the whole, you may be right statistically, these situations don't exist in vacuums. The risk/reward is not always constant. There's field position, score, how teams are playing and many other factors that aren't captured well in statistics. <br /><br />With that said, I'd like to see him go for it more often. I just think anybody with an above average IQ should understand that the solution is not always yes or no. Even people like Chip Kelly doesn't ALWAYS go for it. He just tends to go for it more often than JT does.

<blockquote><div class="name-said">freshfunk;662339 said:</div><hr>While, on the whole, you may be right statistically, these situations don't exist in vacuums. The risk/reward is not always constant. There's field position, score, how teams are playing and many other factors that aren't captured well in statistics. <hr></blockquote><br /><br />I fully agree with that. However, given the low % of times JT will go for it on 4th down (throughout his career), that pretty much tells me that he's not making his decisions optimally in this regard.<br /><br />FYI, I was not making any such "always yes" argument in favor of going for it, only saying that the stats do show that going for it is not as risky as most coaches seem to think. It's actually to your advantage to go for it on most 4th downs.

When is it really "smart" to go for it on 4th and short?<br /><br />Inside the 35 you go for an FG.<br />Past the 50, you risk giving the opponent good field position turning it over on downs.<br /><br />So it seems that between the 35-50 is a good place to risk it. <br /><br />However, if your defense is strong it probably makes more sense to pin them in within the 10 and hope you can either get them to turn it over on downs or cause a costly turnover in the red zone. <br /><br />Considering out defense is more reliable than our offense (in years recent), it seems like the smart decision (outside of situations like being down 2 TDs late in the 4th).

<blockquote><div class="name-said">freshfunk;662345 said:</div><hr>When is it really "smart" to go for it on 4th and short?<br /><br />Inside the 35 you go for an FG.<br />Past the 50, you risk giving the opponent good field position turning it over on downs.<br /><br />So it seems that between the 35-50 is a good place to risk it. <br /><br />However, if your defense is strong it probably makes more sense to pin them in within the 10 and hope you can either get them to turn it over on downs or cause a costly turnover in the red zone. <br /><br />Considering out defense is more reliable than our offense (in years recent), it seems like the smart decision (outside of situations like being down 2 TDs late in the 4th).<hr></blockquote><br /><br />Generally agree that going for it on their side of the 50, but out of field goal range, on a reasonable 4th-down distance (i.e. not 4th and 20), is almost always the right call. In field goal range, it depends on the situation and how much you need for the 1st).<br /><br />As to the argument about defensive strength, perhaps, but if you trust your defense to hold from the 10 yard line, why not trust them to hold from the 35?

<blockquote><div class="name-said">sycasey;662183 said:</div><hr>There have been actual studies done on this, you know. They say that it usually is worth the risk.<hr></blockquote><br /><br />In the NFL, <a href="<a href="<a href="<a href="<a href="http://"http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/"""""" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://"http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/"""""</a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="http://"http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/""""</a>" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://"http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/""""</a></a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="<a href="http://"http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/"""</a>"" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://"http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/"""</a>"</a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="http://"http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/"""</a></a>" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://"http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/"""</a></a></a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="<a href="<a href="http://"http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/""</a>""" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://"http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/""</a>""</a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="http://"http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/""</a>"</a>" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://"http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/""</a>"</a></a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="<a href="http://"http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/""</a></a>"" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://"http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/""</a></a>"</a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="http://"http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/""</a></a></a>" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://"http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/""</a></a></a></a> class="postlink " target="_blank">it's always worth the risk to go for it on 4th down</a>. I'd be surprised if college is much different.

<blockquote><div class="name-said">freshfunk;662339 said:</div><hr>The thing is that people like to easily partition decisions into "always yes" or "always no" categories... probably because they find it too difficult to actually analyze (or acknowledge) a complex situation with many variables. This is why most people vote by "identity politics."<br /><br />While, on the whole, you may be right statistically, these situations don't exist in vacuums. The risk/reward is not always constant. There's field position, score, how teams are playing and many other factors that aren't captured well in statistics. <hr></blockquote><br /><br /><img src="<img src="<img src="<img src="<img src="" />" />" />" />" /><br /><br />You only kick a field goal if it's more than 12 yards to go from the 35 to the 15, and always punt from inside your own 30 if it's more than 7 yards to go. <a href="<a href="<a href="<a href="<a href="http://"http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html"""""" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://"http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html"""""</a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="http://"http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html""""</a>" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://"http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html""""</a></a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="<a href="http://"http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html"""</a>"" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://"http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html"""</a>"</a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="http://"http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html"""</a></a>" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://"http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html"""</a></a></a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="<a href="<a href="http://"http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html""</a>""" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://"http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html""</a>""</a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="http://"http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html""</a>"</a>" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://"http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html""</a>"</a></a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="<a href="http://"http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html""</a></a>"" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://"http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html""</a></a>"</a> class="postlink " target="_blank"><a href="http://"http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html""</a></a></a>" class="postlink " target="_blank">http://"http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/09/4th-down-study-part-4.html""</a></a></a></a> class="postlink " target="_blank">Otherwise, go for it</a>.

<blockquote><div class="name-said">sycasey;662351 said:</div><hr>As to the argument about defensive strength, perhaps, but if you trust your defense to hold from the 10 yard line, why not trust them to hold from the 35?<hr></blockquote><br /><br />For one, coaches tend to restrict their playbook and be more conservative when backed up against their own end zone so likelihood of the D holding is probably better. Second, you get much better field position if your D forces a three and out if opposing offense starts from the 10 vs the 35..