I wanted to get a feel for how people feel about the upcoming year. Personally I feel that an 8 win season would be considered a success. The defense will be young at a number of positions and there will probably be growing pains. At the end of the year though, I believe the D will be one of the best in the country and if we get even adequate QB play then the team should have lots of momentum going into 2013. From what I saw this year I don't think ZM is the man to get us to 8 or more wins. If JT is serious about an open QB competition then I think ZM will be out of it within 2 weeks.

Anything less than 8 is a failure, and will make Tedford's 2013 season one to save his job.

SonofBlue;717659 said:

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The defense will be young at a number of positions and there will probably be growing pains. At the end of the year though, I believe the D will be one of the best in the country

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I appreciate the optimism, but I wonder where your confidence regarding the defense comes from. The DL will be very inexperienced with only Tipoti as a returning starter. The OLB's will definitely be better, but still young and relatively inexperienced. The ILB's are a complete unknown with no experience worth counting and the same with the safties. Who plays these critical positions? The corners are at least experienced so that could be a strength, though it is not a given. That is a lot of unknowns. To say they will be one of the best defenses in the country by the end is a massive leap of faith. I hope your right.

BlueAndGold;717665 said:

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Anything less than 8 is a failure, and will make Tedford's 2013 season one to save his job.

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SonofBlue;717659 said:

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Personally I feel that an 8 win season would be considered a success.

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There's a big difference between "best that can be expected" and "success." An 8-win season should never be considered a success.

im sitting here vibing on some nice jazz tunes ( kitty margolis , jimmy owens monk project -lets cool on, eliane elias-wild flower , eddie lockjaw davis - intermisson riff i love jazz tv ) i noticed this thread earlier ... so i decided to do my weekly check of on Recruits espn , ____,____ looking for updates new recruits / offers /commits to other programs GRR lol. Next thing was the QB issue ( is maynard really out for 2-4 games ?) and if so how will that affect his number of snaps during spring and fall practice ? so thus that means Bridgford and hinder and bohem this is you time are you ready to make you spot solid for kline to challenge ? i think bridgs will be gone after this year so mainly aimed at kyle and austin .


week or so ago i was on you tube looking a recruits , dls austin hooper i like this kid alot (clips posted by proud dad ) i wonder what are the chances of gettin hooper and hutchings to play with barton and hardy jr ... wow that could be the makings of a championship Defense no ? Kline/ Treggs and the nasty Ol being foundation being installed by coach M ( great big ole bear hug 4 him )

it would really be nice to see min 8-9 wins (not including bowl win dammit - watched holiday bowl last night bad grrrrrrrrrrr efff turnover after turnover D keep us in it ) in 2012 and the L's no more than 2 scores differnce be in the game no folding dont let shhh !get out of hand make any /some adjustments dont hold back tedford let them hang . Our play/wins/ national tv wins will have big impact on recruits.


tosh... For who For what ?

Nasal Mucus Goldenbear;717684 said:

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There's a big difference between "best that can be expected" and "success." An 8-win season should never be considered a success.

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A fair point. Wrong choice of word on my part. My thought though is that many youngsters will be getting a lot of playing time this upcoming year so the expectations should not be set too high.

Haas8388;717678 said:

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I appreciate the optimism, but I wonder where your confidence regarding the defense comes from. The DL will be very inexperienced with only Tipoti as a returning starter. The OLB's will definitely be better, but still young and relatively inexperienced. The ILB's are a complete unknown with no experience worth counting and the same with the safties. Who plays these critical positions? The corners are at least experienced so that could be a strength, though it is not a given. That is a lot of unknowns. To say they will be one of the best defenses in the country by the end is a massive leap of faith. I hope your right.

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The defense has, statistically, been the best in the P12 the last two years. Yes we lose a number of key players but the players from the first highly rated defensive class are now juniors and redshirt sophomores I believe. That means they have had time to learn the system (which I believe is very good) and to develop physically. Jalil and Coleman are studs who already have had significant playing time so the loss of the DEs is not so bad. Almost every LB on the roster has tons of physical ability and as they get experience they will get better at the mental side which is why I think at the END of the year the D will be great.

My prediction (hope) is that everyone stays healthy and shows up in shape and that we some guys emerge. I'm thinking in particular of

Nick Forbes
Richard Rodgers
Allan Bridgeford
Brendan Bigelow
Dominic Galas
Maurice Harris
Tyler Rigsbee
Matt Williams
Alejandro Croswaithe
Todd Barr
Kameron Jackson
Alex Logan
Villiami Moala
Gabe King
Steve Fanua
Jason Gibson

I think we all hope that McClure is back in the fall and that Wilkerson, Scarlett, Coley and McCain are good to go for spring.
Edit: Oh! Almost forgot Stephens at fullback. I hope he is back and at full strength.

heartofthebear;717873 said:

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My prediction (hope) is that everyone stays healthy and shows up in shape and that we some guys emerge. I'm thinking in particular of
Nick Forbes
Richard Rodgers
Allan Bridgeford
Brendan Bigelow
Dominic Galas
Maurice Harris
Tyler Rigsbee
Matt Williams
Alejandro Croswaithe
Todd Bar
Kameron Jackson
Alex Logan
Villiami Moala
Gabe King
Steve Fanua
Jason Gibson

I think we all hope that McClure is back in the fall and that Wilkerson, Scarlett, Coley and McCain are good to go for spring.
Edit: Oh! Almost forgot Stephens at fullback. I hope he is back and at full strength.

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I agree with most of your list but have a couple differences:
Nick Forbes
Jason Gibson
Kam Jackson
Mustafa Jalil
Gabe King
Chris McCain
Viliami Moala
Brennan Scarlett
Avery Sebastian
Cecil Whiteside
Joel Willis
David Wilkerson

Matt Cochran
Maurice Harris
Daniel Lasco
Bryce Treggs

SonofBlue;717884 said:

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I agree with most of your list but have a couple differences:
Nick Forbes
Jason Gibson
Kam Jackson
Mustafa Jalil
Gabe King
Chris McCain
Viliami Moala
Brennan Scarlett
Avery Sebastian
Cecil Whiteside
Joel Willis
David Wilkerson

Matt Cochran
Maurice Harris
Daniel Lasco
Bryce Treggs

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McClure would be a medical miracle to be ready in August...

Guys to emerge this spring that will play this fall:

Richard Rodgers
Puka Lopa
Daniel Lasco
Brian Farley
Bryce McGovern
Matt Williams
Steve Fanua

Those guys at OT, TE, RB WR and DE/OLB will make us better across the board...

1. U$C and Oregon will play for the Conference Championship
2. Washington and Stanford will contend for 2nd and 3rd in the North.
3. Oregon State will be vastly improved in the North and UCLA in the South.
4. Cal and Oregon State will fight it out for 4th in the North.
5. Like Riley, Maynard will still play as he did last year as our starter.
6. Our running game will be about the same as last year also.
7. We "may" and I say "may" now lose another Big Game.
8. We will play in another 3rd or 4th tier bowl again.
9. We will be lucky to win 8 games and 6-7 will be a stretch.
10 We will suffer several humiliating blowouts during the year with probable ones playing USC and Oregon and maybe one of either OSU or Stanford.
11. We will beat Nevada, but it won't be as easy as some people think.
12. the UCLA game can go either way again.
13. UW will torch us again because they have a good QB.
14. A QB controversy will erupt by the 4th game.
15. The stadium will look wonderful, but the East side folks will riot and throw food when they discover they still have to use port-potties.
16. JT will be on the hot seat by game #6.
17. This will be our 74th year without a Rose Bowl win.
18. This board will be in full self destruct mode by the 2nd game and the term "negabears" will be retired officially and replaced with "realists."

:gobears:

Wow - I am glad I do not live in your pessimistic world. Personally I think that we will be substantially better than last year and that Stanford will have a HUGE drop-off.

Prediction?

BearsLair72;717897 said:

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1. U$C and Oregon will play for the Conference Championship
2. Washington and Stanford will contend for 2nd and 3rd in the North.
3. Oregon State will be vastly improved in the North and UCLA in the South.
4. Cal and Oregon State will fight it out for 4th in the North.
5. Like Riley, Maynard will still play as he did last year as our starter.
6. Our running game will be about the same as last year also.
7. We "may" and I say "may" now lose another Big Game.
8. We will play in another 3rd or 4th tier bowl again.
9. We will be lucky to win 8 games and 6-7 will be a stretch.
10 We will suffer several humiliating blowouts during the year with probable ones playing USC and Oregon and maybe one of either OSU or Stanford.
11. We will beat Nevada, but it won't be as easy as some people think.
12. the UCLA game can go either way again.
13. UW will torch us again because they have a good QB.
14. A QB controversy will erupt by the 4th game.
15. The stadium will look wonderful, but the East side folks will riot and throw food when they discover they still have to use port-potties.
16. JT will be on the hot seat by game #6.
17. This will be our 74th year without a Rose Bowl win.
18. This board will be in full self destruct mode by the 2nd game and the term "negabears" will be retired officially and replaced with "realists."

:gobears:

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UW hasn't torched us since '09. They survived on a goaline stand as time expired last year and the year before they needed a 4th down 1 yd run to win also as time expired. UCLA has no proven WRs and will most likely be starting a QB (Hundley) that has no game experience and who looked overwhelmed last year. Furd still has no WRs and will also be breaking in a new QB, not to mention replacing their 3 best offensive players. Who knows if Skov will be back to normal (or if he'll be suspended). UO is another team that will have an inexperienced QB. The Ducks will be depending on a bunch of RS freshmen at WR and it'll be interesting to see if De'Anthony Thomas can handle a bigger role with James leaving.

SonofBlue;718027 said:

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UW hasn't torched us since '09. They survived on a goaline stand as time expired last year and the year before they needed a 4th down 1 yd run to win also as time expired. UCLA has no proven WRs and will most likely be starting a QB (Hundley) that has no game experience and who looked overwhelmed last year. Furd still has no WRs and will also be breaking in a new QB, not to mention replacing their 3 best offensive players. Who knows if Skov will be back to normal (or if he'll be suspended). UO is another team that will have an inexperienced QB. The Ducks will be depending on a bunch of RS freshmen at WR and it'll be interesting to see if De'Anthony Thomas can handle a bigger role with James leaving.

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[U]UCLA WR's rated above average and on the roster for 2012:[/U]
Shaquelle Evans Jr.
Devin Lucien So.
Ricky Marvey Jr.
Jerry Johnson Sr.
They also have Jerry Rice Jr. (SO)

[U]Stanford WR's rated above average and on the roster for 2012:[/U]
Jamaal Patterson Sr.
Jamari Roberts Jr.
Ty Montgomery Fr.
Drew Terrell Sr.

[U]Oregon's top 4 WR's for 2012:[/U]
Rashan Vaughn Sr.
Edit: Josh Huff Jr.
Keanon Lowe So.
Devon Blackmon rsFr.
Tacoi Sumler rsFr.
(both Blackmon and Sumler are very highly rated and I would expect them to be ready to step right in as many have under Kelly)

De' Anthony Thomas proved last year that he is just as dangerous as LaMichael. Plus, they can always put Colt Lyerla at RB, as he played that position in HS as well as TE. Oregon is deep at TE.

Sorry to ruin your day. But I study the Pac 12 extensively and I don't think that underrating our opponents is a good strategy for success (see UCLA game last year)

I do agree with you about Washington. But I think that they will be hard to beat next year. It should be a good game. Remember to wear your hat because hatters gonna hat.:p

SonofBlue;717884 said:

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I agree with most of your list but have a couple differences:
Nick Forbes
Jason Gibson
Kam Jackson
Mustafa Jalil
Gabe King
Chris McCain
Viliami Moala
Brennan Scarlett
Avery Sebastian
Cecil Whiteside
Joel Willis
David Wilkerson

Matt Cochran
Maurice Harris
Daniel Lasco
Bryce Treggs

---

I didn't list Mustafa Jalil, Chris McCain, Cecil Whiteside and David Wilkerson because I feel they emerged last year. I left Daniel Lasco off because I was hearing so many good things about him that I feel that inside the football program he has already emerged as well. Cochran and Treggs will not be in for the Spring. That leaves Avery Sebastian which I mistakenly left off. I hope he haves a huge year this year. He deserves it.
Edit: I hope Joel Willis emerges but I don't know if he will next year. He might still be a year away.

BearsLair72;717897 said:

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1. U$C and Oregon will play for the Conference Championship [COLOR="SeaGreen"]AGREE[/COLOR]
2. Washington and Stanford will contend for 2nd and 3rd in the North[COLOR="DeepSkyBlue"]PARIALLY AGREE. IT WILL BE STANFORD[/COLOR]
3. Oregon State will be vastly improved in the North and UCLA in the South[COLOR="DeepSkyBlue"]AGREE ABOUT UCLA. NOT SURE ABOUT THE DEGREE OF OSU'S IMPROVEMENT[/COLOR]
4. Cal and Oregon State will fight it out for 4th in the North. [COLOR="Purple"]PARTIALLY DISAGREE. I THINK CAL WILL FINISH 3RD OR 4TH AND AHEAD OF OSU[/COLOR]
5. Like Riley, Maynard will still play as he did last year as our starter.[COLOR="SeaGreen"]AGREE[/COLOR]
6. Our running game will be about the same as last year also.[COLOR="Lime"]MOSTLY AGREE. IT COULD BE A BIT BETTER WITH LASCO AND/OR BIGELOW EMERGING AND ANDERSON COULD BE A BIT MORE CONSISTENT[/COLOR]
7. We "may" and I say "may" now lose another Big Game.[COLOR="SeaGreen"]AGREE[/COLOR]
8. We will play in another 3rd or 4th tier bowl again.[COLOR="SeaGreen"]AGREE[/COLOR]
9. We will be lucky to win 8 games and 6-7 will be a stretch.[COLOR="DeepSkyBlue"]MOSTLY AGREE. BUT I DON'T THINK WINING 7 GAMES IS A STRETCH[/COLOR]
10 We will suffer several humiliating blowouts during the year with probable ones playing USC and Oregon and maybe one of either OSU or Stanford.[COLOR="DeepSkyBlue"]MOSTLY AGREE, BUT IT WON'T BE OSU[/COLOR]
11. We will beat Nevada, but it won't be as easy as some people think.[COLOR="SeaGreen"]AGREE[/COLOR]
12. the UCLA game can go either way again.[COLOR="SeaGreen"]AGREE[/COLOR]
13. UW will torch us again because they have a good QB.[COLOR="Red"]DISAGREE[/COLOR]
14. A QB controversy will erupt by the 4th game. [U][COLOR="Black"]DON'T KNOW AND DON'T CARE[/COLOR][/U]
15. The stadium will look wonderful, but the East side folks will riot and throw food when they discover they still have to use port-potties.[COLOR="Yellow"]NO COMMENT[/COLOR]
16. JT will be on the hot seat by game #6.[COLOR="Red"]DISAGREE[/COLOR]
17. This will be our 74th year without a Rose Bowl win.[COLOR="SeaGreen"]AGREE[/COLOR]
18. This board will be in full self destruct mode by the 2nd game and the term "negabears" will be retired officially and replaced with "realists."[COLOR="Navy"][U]ONE CAN ONLY HOPE[/U][/COLOR]

:gobears:

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I live in the same lonely world free of delusion that you do. But I disagree with you about OSU, WASH and Tedford. And what does this have to do with spring football?

When was the last time we lost to fUCLA at home???

I agree with the youth of the D, but I worry more about the secondary, when you consider that Jalil played an awful lot last year, and Wilkerson moving inside also should be considered a returning starter. Two replacements at safety, and the corners need to step up-not even a Pac-12 honorable mention for the either of them.

heartofthebear;718374 said:

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I live in the same lonely world free of delusion that you do. But I disagree with you about OSU, WASH and Tedford. And what does this have to do with spring football?

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Me too, but Im in the pit of despair.

3-9....ugly disaster of a season

mbBear;718549 said:

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I agree with the youth of the D, but I worry more about the secondary, when you consider that Jalil played an awful lot last year, and Wilkerson moving inside also should be considered a returning starter. Two replacements at safety, and the corners need to step up-not even a Pac-12 honorable mention for the either of them.

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we had the best defense in the pac, hard to believe neither of our corners were recognized, they played very tough most of the season, excepting Colorado.

too many people saw the D play against UCLA?

i think we win 9-10 games maybe even more. call me optimistic or a sunshine pumper or whatever but the only thing keeping us from doing that is stable qb play and i think we'll get that this year from brigford. The defense will be great again imo. i like hurrell and forbes to take over the ilb positions. they bring alot of speed to the field. offensively i think with brigford behind center we will look like the dynamite tedford offenses of old.

When/where are these pre-spring practices held? Would be cool to go watch some of them.

goldenjax;718986 said:

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i think we win 9-10 games maybe even more. call me optimistic or a sunshine pumper or whatever but the only thing keeping us from doing that is stable qb play and i think we'll get that this year from brigford. The defense will be great again imo. i like hurrell and forbes to take over the ilb positions. they bring alot of speed to the field. offensively i think with brigford behind center we will look like the dynamite tedford offenses of old.

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You're optimistic or a sunshine pumper or whatever.

heartofthebear:

UCLA rec yds avg long td
Shaquelle Evans 19 309 16.3 56 2
Ricky Marvray 10 57 5.7 11 0
Jerry Rice Jr. 2 17 8.5 10 0
no stats for Lucien or Johnson

Furd rec yds avg long td
Jamal-Rashad Patterson 3 38 12.7 22 0
Ty Montgomery 24 350 14.6 62 2
Drew Terrell 8 81 10.1 29 1
no stats for Roberts

I also study the P12 extensively (and you didn't ruin my day). The numbers for your "above average" WRs are a bit underwhelming. Yes UO's trio of redshirt freshmen wideouts are highly rated but they are unproven in college. Most players take time to adjust to the college level. I'm not underrating the competition: I base my thoughts off of performance and only one current WR on UCLA or furd has shown to be Pac 12 starting quality. I'm not saying that they don't have players capable of stepping up or developing, just that there is only one WR on either team that has proven anything yet.

heartofthebear;718370 said:

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I didn't list Mustafa Jalil, Chris McCain, Cecil Whiteside and David Wilkerson because I feel they emerged last year. I left Daniel Lasco off because I was hearing so many good things about him that I feel that inside the football program he has already emerged as well. Cochran and Treggs will not be in for the Spring. That leaves Avery Sebastian which I mistakenly left off. I hope he haves a huge year this year. He deserves it.
Edit: I hope Joel Willis emerges but I don't know if he will next year. He might still be a year away.

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Those are fair points but my list was more of which younger players I expect to contribute heavily this year than focusing on guys participating in spring ball.

As a Cal football fan, Im tired of being optimistic of the next season...only to be let down. So I'll keep my expectations simple

Just beat UCLA, UW, and Furd. If we do that, Ill be content.

I think we need to beat USC at least once in the next two years.

I realize that we are no longer a contender/emerging powerhouse, but it is ABSOLUTELY UNACCEPTABLE for a coach to lose to the same team every year for a decade straight. So if not this year, we need to beat them next year. 2003 was so great, but it was also so long ago.

SonofBlue;719694 said:

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heartofthebear:

UCLA rec yds avg long td
Shaquelle Evans 19 309 16.3 56 2
Ricky Marvray 10 57 5.7 11 0
Jerry Rice Jr. 2 17 8.5 10 0
no stats for Lucien or Johnson

Furd rec yds avg long td
Jamal-Rashad Patterson 3 38 12.7 22 0
Ty Montgomery 24 350 14.6 62 2
Drew Terrell 8 81 10.1 29 1
no stats for Roberts

I also study the P12 extensively (and you didn't ruin my day). The numbers for your "above average" WRs are a bit underwhelming. Yes UO's trio of redshirt freshmen wideouts are highly rated but they are unproven in college. Most players take time to adjust to the college level. I'm not underrating the competition: I base my thoughts off of performance and only one current WR on UCLA or furd has shown to be Pac 12 starting quality. I'm not saying that they don't have players capable of stepping up or developing, just that there is only one WR on either team that has proven anything yet.

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The best thing I can say about your comments is that I don't base my hopes on assessing the opposing rosters unprovens. I base my expectations on what I see year after year from our opponents--first year players stepping up and playing great as expected based on their projected skill level. The list is endless. Your comment about players needing time to adjust makes no sense since most of the players listed have been at the college level at least 2 years and those that haven't are projected to be able to step in right away. Those projections are done by experts in the field who make a living evaluating talent. Yes, they can be wrong. Finally, the stats you cite are misleading since those players didn't get to see the field much.

Did KA need time to adjust? Did Marshawn, Javid, Shane? Do you think Shaq will "need to time to adjust" at UW? Did De'Anthony need time last year? Did LaMichael need time in '09?
edit: Essentially what you are counting on is that the players listed continue to perform as they have before even though they are likely to be on the field for 30 or 40 more minutes per game than last year.
The more the facts stack up, the more your hopes look like pipe dreams.

The Duke!;719713 said:

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I think we need to beat USC at least once in the next two years.

I realize that we are no longer a contender/emerging powerhouse, but it is ABSOLUTELY UNACCEPTABLE for a coach to lose to the same team every year for a decade straight. So if not this year, we need to beat them next year. 2003 was so great, but it was also so long ago.

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I find losing to Stanford as much as we do much more disturbing than the perrenial losses to $C only because $C is a football school and Stanford has tougher admission standards than Cal. I say this despite hatting $C more than the Furd. But, hey, hatters gunna hat.

heartofthebear;720089 said:

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The best thing I can say about your comments is that I don't base my hopes on assessing the opposing rosters unprovens. I base my expectations on what I see year after year from our opponents--first year players stepping up and playing great as expected based on their [COLOR="Blue"]projected[/COLOR] skill level. The list is endless. Your comment about players needing time to adjust makes no sense since most of the players listed have been at the college level at least 2 years and those that haven't are projected to be able to step in right away. Those projections are done by experts in the field who make a living evaluating talent. Yes, they can be wrong. Finally, the stats you cite are misleading since those players didn't get to see the field much.

Did KA need time to adjust? Did Marshawn, Javid, Shane? Do you think Shaq will "need to time to adjust" at UW? Did De'Anthony need time last year? Did LaMichael need time in '09?
edit: Essentially what you are counting on is that the players listed continue to perform as they have before even though they are likely to be on the field for 30 or 40 more minutes per game than last year.
The more the facts stack up, the more your hopes look like pipe dreams.

---

By your own admission you are basing your opinion off of projection. You are PROJECTING that those teams will continue as they have the last few years (which for UCLA is not very impressive). There is no guarantee that the new players will be at the same level as past stand outs. The list of players was provided by you. I merely pointed out that there is no evidence that those WRs are "above average". There aren't stats to back up those ratings. As for young players stepping up and being stars: the list is not endless. Those guys are the exception to the norm. Most freshmen aren't capable of stepping in and being high level players right away. I don't disagree that some players will step up and improve (in fact most will) but until it actually happens it is all projection. I will adjust my perception of those players once they show something new. Your argument about them not playing much further proves my point. If those players were so great they would have seen the field more.

SonofBlue;720127 said:

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By your own admission you are basing your opinion off of projection. You are PROJECTING that those teams will continue as they have the last few years (which for UCLA is not very impressive). There is no guarantee that the new players will be at the same level as past stand outs. The list of players was provided by you. I merely pointed out that there is no evidence that those WRs are "above average". There aren't stats to back up those ratings. As for young players stepping up and being stars: the list is not endless. Those guys are the exception to the norm. Most freshmen aren't capable of stepping in and being high level players right away. I don't disagree that some players will step up and improve (in fact most will) but until it actually happens it is all projection. I will adjust my perception of those players once they show something new. Your argument about them not playing much further proves my point. If those players were so great they would have seen the field more.

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You keep referring to freshmen. Most on the list are not freshmen. Some are redshirt freshmen but most are a full two years into college. And the reason they haven't played is because they were behind seniors that were headed to the NFL. It had nothing to do with how good they are. If we go back to your original comment. You are equally projecting that these players won't perform.

Here's the bottom line. I'm going to save your comments and you can save mine. And next year we can repost them and see who looks like an idiot. Fair enough?

heartofthebear;720583 said:

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You keep referring to freshmen. Most on the list are not freshmen. Some are redshirt freshmen but most are a full two years into college. And the reason they haven't played is because they were behind seniors that were headed to the NFL. It had nothing to do with how good they are. If we go back to your original comment. You are equally projecting that these players won't perform.

Here's the bottom line. I'm going to save your comments and you can save mine. And next year we can repost them and see who looks like an idiot. Fair enough?

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whatever makes you happy

SonofBlue;720637 said:

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whatever makes you happy

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what would make me happy is if people didn't continually underestimate our opponents on this board.