At Caesar's in Vegas today, Cal was listed at 300/1 to win the NC. Not sure why they dropped so much - it said they opened on 1/9/12 at 100/1, but I jumped on that for $10. I know it's not going to happen, but those are solid odds. We trailed UCLA (200/1), and...even...Wazzu (250/1) - wtf.

high school offense

grandmastapoop;737296 said:

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At Caesar's in Vegas today, Cal was listed at 300/1 to win the NC. Not sure why they dropped so much - it said they opened on 1/9/12 at 100/1, but I jumped on that for $10. I know it's not going to happen, but those are solid odds. We trailed UCLA (200/1), and...even...Wazzu (250/1) - wtf.

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Could you list the odds for any other teams?

Sorry to inform you that the odds of Cal winning the NC is about the same as winning the Lotto - both approaching infinity. Like the Lotto, the odds of winning are the same whether you bet or not. Am I being a Negabear?

I'll take those odds

tenplay;737299 said:

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Sorry to inform you that the odds of Cal winning the NC is about the same as winning the Lotto - both approaching infinity. Like the Lotto, the odds of winning are the same whether you bet or not. Am I being a Negabear?

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If Cal winning NC is same as a person winning lotto....... I'd take that odd.

Bear_Territory;737300 said:

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I'll take those odds

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this

". . . so you're saying there's a chance!"

sycasey;737497 said:

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". . . so you're saying there's a chance!"

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HAHAHA... Was about to say that.

Lol

Maynard takes a big step forward
Treggs and Dozier are ready to step right in
OL Gels
Forbes and Co man the ILB position well
KA goes OFF

If all that happens we could win a NC. So the question is do you really think the above is 300-1?! I think as a value it is a great bet.

"the odds of winning are the same whether you bet or not"...does that have any meaning whatsoever?
Actually, odds do change if enough people bet one side or the other...
Its the easy way out to say "well,no way THIS is going to happen"...right, its 300 to 1, they aren't thinking its going to happen either...
Most of the Negabear mantra is: "no way can Tedford win, but if he does, then I will be think he is a genius."

I'll take anyone for cal 100 to 1

Assuming that we need to win 14 games to be national champs (which is a fair assumption, as it's highly unlikely that we make it to the NCG with 1 loss), 300 to 1 odds imply that the average probability of winning individual games is 66%, which is somewhat reasonable. In other words, 300 to 1 are the odds of rolling 3 or higher 14 times in a row on a single die.

Best thing to do is to take this bet every year to fund your trip to the NCG when we do get there.

socalBear23;737720 said:

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Maynard takes a big step forward
Treggs and Dozier are ready to step right in
OL Gels
Forbes and Co man the ILB position well
KA goes OFF

If all that happens we could win a NC. So the question is do you really think the above is 300-1?! I think as a value it is a great bet.

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The OL "gelling" will not do it against SEC defensive fronts. We simply do not have the elite talent to win it. No amount of camaraderie and team mentality can make up for our massive deficit in this area.

If everything goes perfect, and we get every single jump ball, every single flag goes our way, and Matt Barkley gets hurt and has to miss the whole season, then we will go to the Rose Bowl. And I will drink deeply.

Anything else is a fantasy.