CALiforniALUM;841952545 said:
But didn't make it. Everybody around here just assumes that it we hadn't gone for the field goal that making that the one yard was a foregone conclusion. What if we didn't make the one yard? Even it we did make it what assurances are there that we would have scored a TD or a field goal? Who is to say that Ohio State still wouldn't have marched down the field and scored the win? I get the probabilities of this or that argument, but that doesn't necessarily ensure a specific outcome. It is what it is, let's all move on.
Of course it doesn't assure a win. It was just clearly the better percentage play to go for it, even aside from the team morale aspect. In blackjack, if the dealer has a 7 and you have a 14, you hit. What are your assurances that you won't bust, or that the dealer won't outdraw you? None. But you still make the right move.
And notice how there is virtually no one (that I have seen) that is criticizing JT for going for it on the prior 4th and longer distances, despite not making it. That's because those were the right call too. With the exception of a few crazies, no one would have blasted JT for going for it on the late 4th and 1, even if Cal still lost.
Now if it was just an isolated deviation, then you could just chalk it up as unfortunate. Everyone tries a gambit once in a blue moon. But it was not an aberration. It was the norm. JT doesn't even go for it on 4th and 1 near midfield when down 21-0 (USC 2010). From his comments, it is clear that JT thinks he made the percentage play and is surprised that there is any debate. He gives every indication that he will continue to make similar decisions.
Tedford seems like a good man and, like most football coaches, knows far more about football than almost all of us (myself included of course).. But he does not know football math, or perhaps has his own math that transcends our comprehension.
That being said, let's hope the team can build on the otherwise strong performance. It won't be easy though. I think both USC and Furd may be better than OSU, not to mention Oregon.