Enough about USC. The sad fact is that they are simply a much better program that we are and have the history to back it up. Losing to SC, no matter how regularly, will not force the administration and donors to look for a coaching replacement. There is a second group of teams that losing to becomes more important, particularly Oregon and the Furd but also OSU and UW. These programs have been roughly at our level or below since the JT era but have been steadily increasing their lead over us. Losses to these teams do damage both to our program's standing and, more practically, to JT's prospects as Cal's coach in the future, especially considering the success of these teams over us during this time frame is primarily due to the arrival of competent coaching.

Being a middling program already (let's be honest...), Cal can't afford to lose ground to anyone else. The next three weeks are key for this very reason. Our next 3 opponents are teams which have sat anywhere from slightly worse (UCLA and ASU) than us in conference standings to bona-fide bottom feeders (WSU). JT is 15-2 combined against ASU and WSU, firmly establishing our dominance over these two programs. We have also beaten UCLA comfortably at home during JT's tenure. These are teams from struggling programs that we should beat this year.

Critically, however, these three programs have renewed their desire to win by making coaching changes. At least two of the three, UCLA and ASU, look like good hires with immediate positive impact on team performance. It is for this reason that the upcoming 3 week stretch is very important for JT's future at Cal. A Cal loss to any of these teams would indicate another program passing us by. Furthermore, losing to the new kids on the block would be good reason for Sandy and the donors to consider making a coaching change of their own at season's end.

On the other hand, a sweep of these three schools followed by a competitive Big Game could dissipate much of the heat that has grown since the Nevada game.

I think that is true. If the team performs well over the next three weeks I think the hot seat cools A LOT. However, if we go 0-3 Sandy is going to be feeling awfully compelled to make a change. If we go 0-3 and get blown out twice? Dare I say mid-season change?

Why only a three week referendum? Don't the last five seasons count?

Nope, don't think so. Tedford will finish this season and next season...unless someone coughs up $10 mil. I don't see that happening in this economy or for Cal football.

Any alumni with that kind of funds would likely drop it on something more useful, like the university in general or a academic or student need. You know, the UC is paddling against the current, up sh*t creek.

socaltownie;841959355 said:

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I think that is true. If the team performs well over the next three weeks I think the hot seat cools A LOT. However, if we go 0-3 Sandy is going to be feeling awfully compelled to make a change. If we go 0-3 and get blown out twice? Dare I say mid-season change?

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Making a mid-season change for anything short of murder or some felony would be an awful idea, just terrible. No matter how bad things get, you can't fire him mid-season. That would be devastating on so many levels. You need to keep some kind of cohesion if not for the kids, but for the program in general. After the season is another matter. Very tricky because of recruiting but if you do it, do it the day after the last game and get the new guys in place to try and keep any recruits you can. Hopefully Sandy has been working on some succession plan for some time and has a short list.

JT is perfectly capable of getting us to beat ASU, UCLA, and UW at home and Utah and Wazzu away. He's probably not capable of coaching us to victory @ Oregon State. Wins at home v. Oregon and Furd are unlikely but they could be swing games. Even if he manages a couple of good victories, it's clear that he's had 5 years to turn this program around and he hasn't and in fact we have trended downward to irrelevancy. Whatever happens this season short of getting into the Pac-12 title game (which would be something leaping over Oregon and Oregon State), the best years of Tedford at Cal are in the past. We need to move on as soon as possible and/or feasible (keeping the contract in mind).

I started the season a solid Tedford fan (to declare my allegiances early on) but at this point my frustrations are definitely growing. I'm starting to think the negabears might be right. The next 3 weeks matter a lot to me ... if we go 0-3 I would start also be hoping for a coaching change as we'd probably end up 2-10 or 3-9.

slider643;841959359 said:

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Why only a three week referendum? Don't the last five seasons count?

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Yeah, seriously. I was thinking the same thing. We've been saying the same thing on this board for years.

Maybe 10 years from now when JT is still our coach, we'll continue to do the same. "No, really, this week it's finally put up or shut up time for JT." LMAO.

KoreAmBear;841959369 said:

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JT is perfectly capable of getting us to beat ASU, UCLA, and UW at home and Utah and Wazzu away. He's probably not capable of coaching us to victory @ Oregon State. Wins at home v. Oregon and Furd are unlikely but they could be swing games. Even if he manages a couple of good victories, it's clear that he's had 5 years to turn this program around and he hasn't and in fact we have trended downward to irrelevancy. Whatever happens this season short of getting into the Pac-12 title game (which would be something leaping over Oregon and Oregon State), the best years of Tedford at Cal are in the past. We need to move on as soon as possible and/or feasible (keeping the contract in mind).

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I think that bar is, unfortunately too high. Plus I don't think it is the metric that matters to "the powers that be"(tm). It is ALL about butts in seats and ESP sales. My own feeling that a second tier bowl and a 7 win season is enough to fufil those requirements. It probably isn't enough for the BI'ers but enough for the broader community.

SoBeBear99;841959388 said:

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I started the season a solid Tedford fan (to declare my allegiances early on) but at this point my frustrations are definitely growing. I'm starting to think the negabears might be right. The next 3 weeks matter a lot to me ... if we go 0-3 I would start also be hoping for a coaching change as we'd probably end up 2-10 or 3-9.

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I was pleasantly surprised that the negabears serve excellent cocktails and have better hors d'oeuvres on game day than I ever imagined. Plus, you get assorted discounts on stuff when you join.

To be clear, I doubt that JT is let go before the end of the season. I have edited my OP to clarify that I didn't mean that he should be let go in three weeks.

My point was that losing to these three teams would justify Cal also going with a different head coach at some point in the future.

Every week feels like a referendum.

socaltownie;841959394 said:

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I think that bar is, unfortunately too high. Plus I don't think it is the metric that matters to "the powers that be"(tm). It is ALL about butts in seats and ESP sales. My own feeling that a second tier bowl and a 7 win season is enough to fufil those requirements. It probably isn't enough for the BI'ers but enough for the broader community.

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Yes, in my opinion for the powers that be to let JT go he would have to be 3 or 4 wins for a couple of years in a row AND attendance would have to drop drastically!!! The program would have to fail on a few different levels.

It's not surprising that the week after the USC game would be a low point for Board morale. I think most of us could have guessed this before the season started. Back to back road games at tOSU and USC were expected to be tough - and guess what? They were.

Now with that said if we don't come out on fire and beat what looks to be a much improved ASU squad then all bets are are off. This Board will go off like a very bitter and angry roman candle (not sure exactly what that would looke like, but I'm guessing a lot of smoke?) Everyone still supporting JT will be putting a ton of emphasis on this game.

I know it's a running joke how every week we say "this is the most important game of the season", but before the season started I picked the ASU game as the key just because of when it would occur and I believe that now more than ever. We win decisively and it won't show the program is on track, but at least it won't add more fuel to the fire. We lose and look out below. Fingers crossed.

This season is the referendum. Pressure has been building for several years and Cal now has some of the best facilities in the nation to go along with the best education in the world. There are no excuses. We must show upward progress through this season in order for JT to stay. If not, then yes, fire JT after last game and have a big time replacement ready to be named.

Early in the season (e.g. vs. Nevada) ... you could make the case that we were still working out the kinks. tOSU and USC ... more talented programs (even if neither really played to their potential).

ASU at home? There's no excuse. We have to bring home the W!!

socaltownie;841959355 said:

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I think that is true. If the team performs well over the next three weeks I think the hot seat cools A LOT. However, if we go 0-3 Sandy is going to be feeling awfully compelled to make a change. If we go 0-3 and get blown out twice? Dare I say mid-season change?

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I don't care how bad things get, a mid-season change will not happen absent conditions that would fall under the category of being "fired with cause".

Even Holmoe was allowed to finish out the season even though his resignation/firing was announced on November 2.

But yes, I think that pressure would mount on Tedford if he were to lose three straight to Arizona State, UCLA, and Washington State.

Sebastabear;841959451 said:

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Now with that said if we don't come out on fire and beat what looks to be a much improved ASU squad then all bets are are off. This Board will go off like a very bitter and angry roman candle (not sure exactly what that would looke like, but I'm guessing a lot of smoke?) Everyone still supporting JT will be putting a ton of emphasis on this game.

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There won't be any anger. That ship has sailed. We're all pretty numb and borderline apathetic. Like a dead cat bounce, sometimes we get pissed (4th and 1, pulling the plug on Bigelow after two series v. $C) but we're way beyond anger. It's a steady dose of callousness, getting harder with each critical and fatal game decision. We have become college football existentialists.

beelzebear;841959360 said:

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Nope, don't think so. Tedford will finish this season and next season...unless someone coughs up $10 mil. I don't see that happening in this economy or for Cal football.

Any alumni with that kind of funds would likely drop it on something more useful, like the university in general or a academic or student need. You know, the UC is paddling against the current, up sh*t creek.

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"This economy" also includes a stock market that has done pretty well over the last few years and that is sitting close to record highs. I know one small-fry Bear whose investments are sitting at all-time highs. I can only imagine that large donor-types have also fared well. They might just have the 'pocket change' to part with some of these gains.

I have no inside knowledge (if that wasn't painfully obvious).

KoreAmBear;841959637 said:

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There won't be any anger. That ship has sailed. We're all pretty numb and borderline apathetic. Like a dead cat bounce, sometimes we get pissed (4th and 1, pulling the plug on Bigelow after two series v. $C) but we're way beyond anger. It's a steady dose of callousness, getting harder with each critical and fatal game decision. We have become college football existentialists.

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I suppose this is the type of post you don't get on SEC boards. "College football existentialists" ... hilarious. I suppose the feelings I have watching our games so far this year do parallel the feelings I had reading Sartre's 'Nausea'. Annihilating some Sun Devils would hopefully quiet that queasy feeling.

KoreAmBear;841959637 said:

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There won't be any anger. That ship has sailed. We're all pretty numb and borderline apathetic. Like a dead cat bounce, sometimes we get pissed (4th and 1, pulling the plug on Bigelow after two series v. $C) but we're way beyond anger. It's a steady dose of callousness, getting harder with each critical and fatal game decision. We have become college football existentialists.

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Outrageous! This is defeatism! I firmly believe that we have more anger we can muster against our coach, our players and the porta potties. We have not yet begun to complain!!

SoBeBear99;841959676 said:

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I suppose this is the type of post you don't get on SEC boards. "College football existentialists" ... hilarious. I suppose the feelings I have watching our games so far this year do parallel the feelings I had reading Sartre's 'Nausea'. Annihilating some Sun Devils would hopefully quiet that queasy feeling.

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I was thinking the amoral, nihilistic state of Camus', L'Etranger.

all i know: this forum *loves* the word 'referendum'.