drizzlybears brother;841967927 said:
Your provocative title was somewhat ameliorated by qualifying “Tedford Apologists” as I’d argue that most of us lean at least somewhat in that direction. Even JT’s biggest detractors acknowledge the positives he’s brought. He could go 1-10, a la Holmoe, and we’d still be light years ahead of where we were when he took over.
Still, I’ve been well within the support JT camp, so feel I should comment.
And I’ll admit that I too was a supporter of Tom Holmoe going into his final season; so it might be that I suffer a certain loyalty bias that I don’t fully appreciate, but I’d say that my support of JT has been for entirely different reasons than was my support for TH. More importantly, I’d say that my Holmoe experience (weird words to type) bears on the current situation and not in JT’s favor.
(My basic defense of Holmoe was that he’d been improving our recruiting through his stint and that we’d been in an extended period of coaching turnover that I thought had become very detrimental to the program. And that if he could just get an offensive coordinator that clicked - I really thought he was about to turn the corner. Then he didn’t.)
Goal of the Program
No brainer, to win a BCS game every year, and do so within the broader parameters and expectations of our great university.
It’s a high goal that is nearly impossible, but that’s the goal and anything falling short of it needs to be weighed against alternatives.
Does Tedford give us the Best Shot at Attaining this Goal?
I think it’s unlikely.
So then Tedford must go, right?
It all depends on your read of the odds. What are JT’s odds of turning things around vs. the odds of the next guys doing so, and at what cost to JT’s successor if we extend him? If you think the program is trending down, then JT has got to go. If you think it’s not, you’re willing to give him more time.
• Tedford is a good coach who has gotten a lot right;
• He’s continued to build talent and may have the most talented collection of players since his arrival;
• His results on the field are down, and have been down for a materially long stretch;
• Donors’ tremendous contributions aside, JT is THE reason we have improved facilities, and the one thing he’s always said he needs to be competitive;
• The cost of terminating him is a non-factor as it is not specifically the university’s to bear, the people making this choice have the means to execute on it.
• We play no role in any decision to terminate Tedford as that will be driven by people with different access and influence than us.
Still, if JT has a hard ceiling, and it’s below conference championships, then you have to move on regardless of any disaster the next guy might prove to be.
I started the season believing that Tedford has it in him to make good on our expectations. Many of the challenges of recent years have been addressed. This is a year that had high expectations and falling short of them creates a turning point for me. Falling well short of them will be a game-changer.
Thanks for your post. You make some excellent points, but I think a few of your thoughts are problematic and self-contradictory.
First, I do think "ordinary" fan support has a lot to do with terminating a coach. Of course, you also need elite donor support for the buyout and for hiring a replacement. But "Fire ______" chants make a huge difference when they are on national television. So do empty seats. I remember Steve Lavin's last year at UCLA. As soon as he walked on the floor at Haas, the entire Pavilion cheered like crazy. We were so happy he was UCLA's coach. I am sure their athletic director took notice.
Ordinary ticket sales and television ratings are important factors for generating revenue. And in both of these areas ordinary fan support matters tremendously.
Second, if only the donors matter then risk shouldn't be such a huge factor. I assume that many of these donors didn't made their fortunes by refusing take a major risk to improve their situations.
That being said, you make some very good points. Once it can be determined that Tedford can't get us to the ultimate goal (yours is a bit higher than mine), then it doesn't matter. And it seems that the vast majority of Cal fans now agree we have reached that point. I thought this after 2007, but I was an outlier back then.
We need to take the risk and higher a great coach. Sandy has done a great job of hiring coaches thus far (Montgomery, Gottlieb) and I have to think that counts for something.