from USA Today's Jeff Sagarin and his computer algorithms.
From this day forward - our BearPlay game (click here) - will display the latest Sagarin ratings/predictions as the season wears along. His data is published each week on Monday after weekend games - we'll update BearPlay shortly thereafter.
We add these ratings to BearPlay now because we are roughly half-way through the season - and enough games have been played to increase the statistical credibility of his results. Sagarin's allowance for home field advantage (2.62 points) has been factored into all the numbers you see there.
For the moment, here's what Sagarin's computer says happens next:
Cal by 10 over WSU
Cal loses to Stanford by 5.5
Cal loses to Utah by 1.1
Cal by 4 over Washington
Cal loses to Oregon by 14.1
Cal loses to Oregon State by 6.6
And that even after the solid win over the (hapless?) Bruins? It seems now the Bruins were a more "mediocre" opponent than many of us anticipated. Or perhaps the Cal win knocked them down a few notches in the ratings?
But just two more wins? That would take Cal to a 4-8 season, a dismal result. Even 5-7 season with a win over Utah would be seriously disappointing.
Still - the point of this post is just to give you access to the current Sagarin calculations - one of the contributors to national team rankings.
The larger issue - Cal's performance at a critical time in Cal Athletics' financial history - is already being debated substantially elsewhere on these boards.
From this day forward - our BearPlay game (click here) - will display the latest Sagarin ratings/predictions as the season wears along. His data is published each week on Monday after weekend games - we'll update BearPlay shortly thereafter.
We add these ratings to BearPlay now because we are roughly half-way through the season - and enough games have been played to increase the statistical credibility of his results. Sagarin's allowance for home field advantage (2.62 points) has been factored into all the numbers you see there.
For the moment, here's what Sagarin's computer says happens next:
Cal by 10 over WSU
Cal loses to Stanford by 5.5
Cal loses to Utah by 1.1
Cal by 4 over Washington
Cal loses to Oregon by 14.1
Cal loses to Oregon State by 6.6
And that even after the solid win over the (hapless?) Bruins? It seems now the Bruins were a more "mediocre" opponent than many of us anticipated. Or perhaps the Cal win knocked them down a few notches in the ratings?
But just two more wins? That would take Cal to a 4-8 season, a dismal result. Even 5-7 season with a win over Utah would be seriously disappointing.
Still - the point of this post is just to give you access to the current Sagarin calculations - one of the contributors to national team rankings.
The larger issue - Cal's performance at a critical time in Cal Athletics' financial history - is already being debated substantially elsewhere on these boards.